Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific assets. Core Insights - The report indicates a less urgent need for substantial policy easing in the near term, with June PMI surveys showing resilient economic momentum and Q2 real GDP growth tracking slightly above 5% [5] - The report suggests a gradual descent of the USD/CNY exchange rate, with a forecast of 6.90 for the USD/CNY spot in 12 months, implying limited total returns for long CNY positions against the USD [5] - The rates market is expected to continue short-term consolidation, with interest rates in China drifting lower over the medium term due to resilient economic growth and limited appetite for significant easing [6] Valuations and Policy Stance - The USD/CNY spot fell further in June, while the CNY depreciated modestly against the CFETS basket, indicating a shift in valuations [10] - The countercyclical factor widened in June, suggesting an appreciation bias in the USD/CNY fixing [17] Technicals - The carry-to-volatility ratio for USD/CNH and EUR/CNH remained largely unchanged in June, indicating stable market conditions [20] - Momentum to buy USD or EUR and sell CNH remained largely unchanged, reflecting consistent trading patterns [21] Fundamentals - China's trade balance rose in May, driven by a higher goods trade surplus, indicating strong export performance [32] - Long-term cash bond yields and NDIRS rates remained largely stable in June, suggesting a balanced outlook for bond markets [38] - The consensus forecast for CPI inflation edged down in June, while the forecast for real GDP growth edged up, reflecting a mixed economic outlook [56] Liquidity and Leverage - The PBOC injected liquidity into the interbank market in June primarily through pledged reverse repos, indicating active liquidity management [58] - Repo rates declined in early to mid-June before rising at the quarter-end due to seasonal liquidity demand, reflecting fluctuations in funding conditions [61] Bond Supply and Demand - Net issuance of central government bonds was around RMB 706 billion in June 2025, with the central government utilizing 51% of the annual issuance quota [69] - Local government general bond net issuance was around RMB 94 billion in June 2025, with local governments utilizing 56% of their general bond issuance quota [72]

6 July 2025 | 9:31PM EDT Global Markets Analyst The Macro Drivers of Implied Volatility (Rosenberg) Isabella Rosenberg +1(212)357-7628 | isabella.rosenberg@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 n FX volatility has declined in recent weeks, alongside more beni ...

Key Takeaways CME will debut FX Tape to offer a centralized view of FX liquidity and reference pricing. The service aggregates trade data from over 1,400 institutions across multiple FX venues. FX Tape supports real-time mid-price updates and aligns with rising demand for transparency.CME Group (CME) recently announced that it is gearing up to launch CME FX Tape+ later this year. The leading derivatives marketplace’s primary objective with FX Tape+ is to provide centralized reference prices and a comprehe ...

July 3, 2025 02:31 PM GMT G10 FX Strategy | Global Our Latest Views Morgan Stanley's top G10 FX strategy views including key fundamental catalysts and technical levels to watch. Key Takeaways USD View: Bearish | Skew: Bearish The USD sell-off should continue as technical forces from FX hedging and momentum play an increasing role. Stickier inflation reducing pricing for 2025 Fed cuts is unlikely to be USD-positive if joined by weak growth. EUR View: Bullish | Skew: Bullish EUR/USD's uptrend should continue ...

Dollar weakness continues to dominate our G10 FX views with US-RoW rate and growth convergence, as well as increased FX hedging, remaining in play. USD View: Bearish | Skew: Bearish The DXY should continue trading lower as US growth and rates converge to those of the rest of the world, and increased FX hedging adds risk premium to the USD. EUR View: Bullish | Skew: Bullish July 2, 2025 07:50 AM GMT Global Macro Strategy | Global G10 FX Chart Pack Top charts we are watching for each G10 currency with economi ...

G10 FX Strategy: Two Banks and Two Dollars | 27-Jun-2025 We expect USD/CAD to decline this year as Fed and Bank of Canada policy expectations diverge. However, CAD is likely to underperform other G10 currencies due to energy market and immigration dynamics. US Rates Strategy: Add Vol Surface Flatteners | 27-Jun-2025 We suggest buying 1m10y vs. 6m10y vol given cheap valuations. We maintain our 0QU5 call fly to play for a further repricing of the Fed's trough rate. Euro Area Rates Strategy: Dutch Pension Refo ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha June 29, 2025 06:00 AM GMT Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro M Global Idea Are Foreign Investors Fleeing US Assets? Investment flows, both from and into US assets, were a key theme in our client conversations in multiple meetings across the pond last week. While many questions concerned the tax provisions under Section 899 proposed in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which have since been removed, the subtext was clear – are investors, particularly foreign investors, ...

Key focus and themes Global Markets Research Foreign Exchange Asia exJapan/Euro Area/Europe Softer USD drivers back in focus Considering June NFP (3 July), Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" (4 July) and the tariff deadline (9 July), where do you expect EUR/USD to trade in two weeks (current spot: 1.17)? | | ★★★★★ | | Top 5 FX and Rates Trades | | ★★★★★ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Countries | Trade | bp move | bp move from | Target | Timeline | Conviction (0-5) | | | | from start | current | ...

CHICAGO and LONDON, June 30, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- CME Group, the world's leading derivatives marketplace, today announced that it will launch CME FX Tape+ to provide centralized reference prices and a comprehensive view of FX market liquidity from its transparent central limit order book (CLOB) marketplaces, including FX futures, EBS Market, FX Spot+‌ and FX Link. FX Tape+ is set to launch later this year."By bringing together price information from our network of 1,400 institutions and over 100,000 active ...

J P M O R G A N Global FX Strategy 27 June 2025 FX Mid Year Outlook Ten questions (and answers) on currencies in 2H25 Outlook:Stay bearish USD. Valuation undershoots vs. rates/ equities, positioning, and a paucity of discrete catalysts are not a constraint for further weakness. Quality of USD carry has deteriorated and the dollar smile has widened. Historical data across DMs shows that FX hedge rebalancing should continue to act as a dollar depressant. Significant CNY strength is not a pre-condition for USD ...