September 22, 2025 11:26 AM GMT G10 FX Strategy The USD Bear Regime Necessities Forget about USD strength, your worries, and your strife. The Fed's reaction function shift suggests a sustained period of the USD bear regime which means a large but increasingly broad USD sell-off. We expand our USD 'sell list' to beyond the DXY majors to include AUD and CAD. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. | M September 22, 2025 11:26 AM GMT | | Global Idea | | --- | --- | --- | | G10 FX Strategy | Morg ...

Summary of PTC Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: PTC (Parametric Technology Corporation) - **Industry**: Software, specifically focusing on product lifecycle management (PLM) and computer-aided design (CAD) solutions - **Key Products**: Windchill (PLM), Creo (CAD), CodeBeamer (Application Lifecycle Management), Onshape (cloud-based CAD), ServiceMax Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Customer Engagement**: The CEO, Neil Barua, emphasized the importance of engaging with customers globally to understand their needs and challenges, particularly the demand for faster product development amidst increasing complexity in business environments [5][10][45] 2. **Strategic Positioning**: PTC is positioned as a critical player in the software vertical, with a strong relationship with customers built over 40 years, which is essential for their product development processes [10][11] 3. **Go-to-Market Transformation**: The company is undergoing a transformation in its go-to-market strategy, focusing on verticalization to enhance customer engagement and increase market share [12][13] 4. **Financial Guidance**: PTC adjusted its full-year growth targets to the high single digits, reflecting a stable macro environment and improved execution in Q3 [15][19] 5. **Product Lifecycle Management**: Windchill is highlighted as a flagship product with significant growth potential, particularly as companies seek to integrate software and hardware development processes [29][30] 6. **AI Integration**: PTC is embedding AI into its solutions, enhancing product capabilities and improving operational efficiency [37][39] 7. **ServiceMax Performance**: The ServiceMax segment faced challenges but is expected to align better with PTC's offerings, creating opportunities for growth [48][50] Additional Important Points 1. **Market Dynamics**: The company noted that while the macro environment remains challenging, it has not worsened, allowing for a more stable outlook [19][20] 2. **Customer Sentiment**: There is a sense of urgency among customers to invest in digital transformation, which PTC is well-positioned to support [45][46] 3. **M&A Strategy**: PTC is focused on tuck-in acquisitions that enhance its product data foundation and align with its strategic vision [62][63] 4. **Cash Flow Management**: PTC operates on a cash basis, providing visibility into cash inflows and outflows, which supports its financial stability [55][58] 5. **Internal AI Utilization**: The company is leveraging AI internally to improve customer support and R&D processes, leading to productivity gains [59][60] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the PTC conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, product focus, and market positioning.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **foreign exchange (FX) market** and the **cross-border flows** as analyzed by BofA Global Research. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Consolidation of FX Flows**: The FX flows in Q3 are characterized by consolidation, particularly after significant positioning adjustments in the first half of the year. Investors have favored USD, CHF, and emerging market (EM) currencies against JPY, GBP, and CAD [1][7][8]. 2. **Investor Positioning**: Among BofA investors, USD short positions are relatively light compared to historical levels, indicating a cautious approach towards USD selling [4][5]. 3. **Hedge Fund Activity**: Hedge Funds have shown a notable demand for Brazilian Real (BRL) and have been net sellers of EURGBP, while also supporting GBP recently [7][8][13]. 4. **G10 Currency Trends**: GBP has benefitted the least from USD supply year-to-date, with Hedge Funds primarily supporting it, joined by Asset Managers in the last week [9][10]. 5. **Emerging Market (EM) Focus**: Latin American currencies have seen strong demand in Q3, with BRL demand highlighted. In Asia, there was notable demand for Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), while in EMEA, Hungarian Forint (HUF) demand was significant amid geopolitical developments [13][20]. 6. **FX Options and Futures**: The report includes a snapshot of FX options and futures flows, indicating varied positioning across different currencies, with USD options showing a positive z-score recently [22]. Additional Important Details 1. **Aggregate Positioning Data**: The report provides detailed aggregate positioning data for various currencies, indicating shifts in investor sentiment and positioning over time [24][32]. 2. **Risk Considerations**: The report emphasizes that trading ideas and investment strategies discussed may involve significant risks and are not suitable for all investors, highlighting the need for experience and financial resources to absorb potential losses [6]. 3. **Future Reports**: The next report on Liquid Cross Border Flows is scheduled for release on September 1st, indicating ongoing monitoring of FX flows and positioning [6]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state of the FX market and investor behavior.

Summary of Morgan Stanley's G10 FX Strategy Update Industry Overview - The report focuses on the G10 foreign exchange (FX) market, analyzing various currencies against the US dollar (USD) and providing strategic insights for investors. Key Currency Views USD (US Dollar) - **View**: Bearish - **Skew**: Bearish - The DXY is expected to weaken, particularly against EUR, JPY, and GBP. The risk premium has largely driven the post-Liberation Day move, with potential for further increases in risk premium [2][12][17]. EUR (Euro) - **View**: Bullish - **Skew**: Bullish - EUR/USD is under upward pressure due to increased USD-negative and EUR-positive risk premiums, alongside a compression in Fed-ECB rate expectations [3][18]. JPY (Japanese Yen) - **View**: Bullish - **Skew**: Bullish - Optimism regarding a potential Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike and concerns about the US labor market may lead to speculation about policy convergence, reducing appetite for JPY carry trades [4][19]. GBP (British Pound) - **View**: Bullish - **Skew**: Bullish - GBP/USD is seen as an attractive option for investors, reflecting a carry-neutral expression of a USD-negative, Europe-positive view. The carry remains crucial for GBP's outperformance [5][21]. CHF (Swiss Franc) - **View**: Neutral - **Skew**: Bearish - Short CHF positions are attractive from a carry perspective, but much of the CHF-negative tariff news is already priced in, potentially leading to underwhelming growth expectations [6][22]. CAD (Canadian Dollar) - **View**: Bullish - **Skew**: Bullish - Anticipation of a decline in USD/CAD, even if upcoming CPI shows signs of deceleration. The convergence of US-Canada rates is expected to weigh on USD/CAD [7][25]. AUD (Australian Dollar) - **View**: Bullish - **Skew**: Bullish - Strong domestic fundamentals and elevated yields could lead AUD/USD to re-test 0.6600, with potential upside towards 0.6900 if CPI surprises positively [8][26]. NZD (New Zealand Dollar) - **View**: Neutral - **Skew**: Neutral - A 25bp cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is fully priced in, but stronger-than-expected growth raises the risk of an NZD-positive surprise if the OCR forecast does not decline [9][27]. SEK (Swedish Krona) - **View**: Neutral - **Skew**: Neutral - The upcoming Riksbank meeting is not expected to be a major catalyst, but a rate cut in September is seen as underpriced [14][29]. NOK (Norwegian Krone) - **View**: Neutral - **Skew**: Bearish - A bearish tilt on NOK is noted, with expectations of a lower trough rate from Norges Bank, which may not be fully priced in by the market [16][30]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming economic indicators such as CPI, jobless claims, and PMIs, which could influence currency movements [17][21][25]. - The analysis suggests that the USD's decline since April is primarily driven by risk premium dynamics, with potential for further declines if US rates converge lower towards global peers [12][17]. Trade Ideas - **Long GBP/CHF**: Entry at 1.0927, target 1.12, stop at 1.055 - **Short USD/JPY**: Entry at 147.04, target 135, stop at 151 - **Long EUR/USD**: Entry at 1.1686, target 1.20, stop at 1.11 [16].

Core Insights - PTC Inc. reported third-quarter fiscal 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $1.64, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 34.4% and up from 98 cents in the prior-year quarter [1][9] - Revenues reached $644 million, a 24% year-over-year increase, surpassing the consensus estimate by 10.6% [2][9] - The company is focusing on digital product innovation and transitioning to SaaS and subscription models, which is establishing a stable revenue base [2][3] Financial Performance - Recurring revenues were $613.6 million, up 27.4% year over year, while perpetual licenses increased by 10.1% to $7.8 million [6] - License revenues accounted for 39% of total revenues at $251.5 million, a 68.6% increase from the previous year, while support and cloud services revenues rose 8.9% to $370 million [7] - PLM revenues were $404 million, growing 23% year over year, and CAD revenues were $240 million, up 27% [10] Operating Metrics - Total operating expenses were $324 million, compared to $310.9 million in the prior-year quarter, with non-GAAP operating income rising to $285.2 million from $164.4 million [12] - The non-GAAP operating margin increased by 1,260 basis points year over year to 44% [12] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - As of June 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $199 million, down from $235 million as of March 31, 2025, while total debt decreased to $1.23 billion from $1.54 billion [13] - Cash provided by operating activities was $244 million, up from $214 million in the prior-year quarter, and free cash flow was $242 million compared to $212 million [13] Shareholder Returns - During the fiscal third quarter, PTC repurchased $75 million worth of its stock as part of a $300 million buyback plan for fiscal 2025 [14] Future Guidance - PTC now projects fiscal 2025 revenues in the range of $2,570 to $2,630 million, indicating a 12-14% year-over-year increase, and non-GAAP EPS is estimated to be between $6.63 and $7.03, suggesting a rise of 31-38% [15] - For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, revenues are estimated to be between $725 and $785 million, with non-GAAP EPS projected in the range of $2.10 to $2.50 [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a high conviction level on several currency pairs, including short CNH against an equal-weighted basket (EUR, AUD, KRW) at 4/5, long EUR/INR at 4/5, and long USD/HKD outright at 4/5 [6][10][16] Core Insights - The report suggests a bias towards a weaker USD, despite some short-term headwinds from stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payroll data [8][12] - Key focus points include potential changes in US trade agreements and the influence of Fed Chair Powell's position on USD strength [11][20] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring developments in US tariffs, particularly concerning Japan and other major trading partners [19][20] Summary by Sections Asia FX Strategy - The conviction level on short CNH against an equal-weighted basket has been raised to 4/5, targeting a 4% return by the end of July [11] - Long EUR/INR is favored with a conviction level of 4/5, driven by RBI's bias to maintain FX reserves and local growth slowdown [17] - Short USD/TWD is maintained at a high conviction level of 4/5, with expectations of continued foreign equity inflows and robust local fundamentals [15] G10 FX Strategy - Long EUR/GBP is retained at a conviction level of 4/5 due to fiscal pressures on GBP and potential for further deterioration in economic data [21] - Short USD/JPY recommendations are maintained, with expectations of downward pressure on USD against JPY amid rising tariff risks [19][20] - The report indicates a modestly positive outlook for AUD, with expectations of a rate cut from the RBA [22] Asia Rates Strategy - Conviction on pay 10y HK IRS is raised to 4/5 due to increased HKMA intervention and expectations of upward pressure on USD/HKD forwards [25] - The conviction on pay 5y outright in China is maintained at 4/5, while the conviction on 2s5s steepener is reduced to 3/5 [26] - In India, a 2y NDOIS receive position is maintained, with limited near-term catalysts expected [27]

Investment Ratings - USD View: Bearish with a bearish skew [2][21] - EUR View: Bullish with a bullish skew [3][22] - GBP View: Neutral with a bullish skew [4][23] - JPY View: Bullish with a bullish skew [5][24] - CHF View: Neutral with a bullish skew [6][25] - NOK View: Neutral with a bearish skew [7][26] - SEK View: Neutral with a bearish skew [8][27] - AUD View: Neutral with a bullish skew [9][28] - NZD View: Neutral with a bullish skew [10][29] - CAD View: Bearish with a bearish skew [11][30] Core Insights - Dollar weakness is a prevailing theme in G10 FX views, driven by US growth and rate convergence with the rest of the world, alongside increased FX hedging [21][22] - The EUR/USD is expected to rise to 1.20 and beyond, supported by European investors hedging US assets [3][22] - GBP is seen as constructive due to its carry-to-vol ratio and low perceived trade tension risks [4][23] - JPY may benefit from US-Japan trade uncertainties and lower US terminal rate expectations [5][24] - The CHF is expected to face downside risks due to yield compression despite low inflation [6][25] - The NOK is viewed with a bearish skew due to lower oil price risks and rate headwinds [7][26] - SEK is anticipated to react to incoming economic data with a bearish bias [8][27] - AUD fundamentals remain strong, indicating potential for performance catch-up against the USD [9][28] - NZD's downside against AUD is limited due to minimal yield advantage [10][29] - CAD is recommended for short positions against CHF due to broad USD weakness and negative terms of trade [11][30] Summary by Sections USD - The USD is expected to weaken as growth and rates converge with the rest of the world, with a risk premium of approximately 6% due to increased FX hedging [63][65][68] - The current account deficit stands at 4.6% of GDP, indicating a widening trend [68][70] EUR - The EUR/USD is projected to rise significantly, with options markets underpricing the potential for it to reach 1.25 [99][101] - Europe's current account surplus is increasing, primarily from goods and services [104][106] GBP - GBP's strength is supported by a favorable carry-to-vol ratio and limited trade surplus with the US [135][137] - The UK's current account deficit is stable but financed by more volatile forms of investment [140][142] JPY - JPY may gain from continued weakness in US economic data affecting terminal rate pricing [171][173] - Japan's current account remains positive, with a narrowing trade deficit [176][178] CHF - The CHF is expected to strengthen due to low inflation and yield compression potential [206][209] - Switzerland's current account surplus is high, driven by a strong goods surplus [212][217] NOK - The NOK faces downside risks despite a higher neutral rate estimate from the Norges Bank [238][240] - Norway's current account surplus benefits from oil and gas exports [244][246] SEK - SEK is sensitive to yield differentials, with potential upside risks against EUR [269][271] - Sweden's current account surplus is improving, driven by trade [274][276] AUD - AUD's strong fundamentals suggest a potential catch-up against peer currencies [299][300] - Australia's current account has shifted to a deficit due to increased imports [305][307] NZD - NZD's downside potential against AUD is limited due to a lack of yield advantage [336][338] - New Zealand's current account deficit is narrowing after a peak in 2022 [341][343] CAD - CAD is expected to decline against CHF due to unfavorable terms of trade [371][373] - Canada's current account deficit has narrowed, primarily due to a lower income deficit [378][380]

Core Viewpoint - TELUS Corporation has announced the results of its cash tender offers for certain series of its outstanding notes, increasing the maximum purchase amount to accommodate all tendered 3.95% Senior Notes, Series CAB and 4.10% Senior Notes, Series CAE in full, along with a portion of the 4.40% Senior Notes, Series CU [1][6] Summary by Sections Offers - The offers were made under the terms set forth in the Offer to Purchase dated June 20, 2025 [2] Tender Results - A total of C$3,108,424,000 in principal amount of the notes was validly tendered before the expiration date of June 27, 2025 [3] Notes Information - The following series of notes were included in the offers: - 3.95% Senior Notes, Series CAB due February 2050: C$800 million outstanding, C$691.7 million tendered - 4.10% Senior Notes, Series CAE due April 2051: C$500 million outstanding, C$421.9 million tendered - 4.40% Senior Notes, Series CU due January 2046: C$500 million outstanding, C$436.5 million tendered, C$261.9 million accepted on a pro rata basis [4][6] Total Consideration - The total consideration for each series of notes will be based on the applicable fixed spread plus the yield based on the bid-side price of the applicable Canadian reference security [5] Acceptance Amounts - The company expects to accept C$691.7 million of the 3.95% Senior Notes, C$421.9 million of the 4.10% Senior Notes, and C$261.9 million of the 4.40% Senior Notes, with no acceptance for several other series [6] Financing Condition - The financing condition for the offers has been satisfied due to the closing of a previously announced offering of junior subordinated notes totaling US$1.5 billion [7] Pricing and Settlement - Pricing for the notes is expected to occur on June 30, 2025, with the settlement date anticipated to be July 3, 2025 [8][9] Dealer Managers - The company has retained several financial institutions as lead dealer managers for the offers [10] Termination of Offers - If any offer is terminated, the company will promptly notify the tender agent, and all tendered notes will be returned to the holders [11] Company Overview - TELUS is a leading communications technology company with over C$20 billion in annual revenue and more than 20 million customer connections [15]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the Chinese stock market, particularly A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with emphasis on technology and emerging industries [1][4][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **De-dollarization Trend**: Global funds are shifting away from the US dollar, leading to increased investment in Chinese markets, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1][4] - **Policy Reforms**: Since September 2024, China's policy reforms and collaboration with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange have accelerated capital market reforms, particularly benefiting technology and emerging industries [1][4] - **Investment Opportunities**: PCB (Printed Circuit Board) and overseas computing power are highlighted as key investment areas, with a focus on "leading, localization, and globalization" as future development directions [1][5] - **Economic Challenges and Opportunities**: Current economic challenges include macroeconomic pressures and poor trade data, but long-term opportunities exist in new consumption and technology sectors [2] - **Profitability Concentration**: The trend of leading companies gaining market share is evident, especially in industries like machinery, public utilities, and transportation, where capacity utilization is high [3][17] - **Domestic and Foreign Capital**: Both foreign and domestic capital are crucial for driving equity asset growth, with foreign capital holdings exceeding 3 trillion yuan and domestic capital increasingly influencing pricing in Hong Kong stocks [12][13] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Globalization Impact**: Young leaders (born in the 80s and 90s) are more inclined to implement globalization strategies, leading to sustained growth in overseas revenues for their companies [3][30][31] - **Sector-Specific Trends**: Significant progress in domestic substitution rates in sectors like carbon fiber, special gases, and industrial robots, indicating a steady advancement in localization efforts [8][23] - **Emerging Market Influence**: Emerging markets are becoming significant drivers of Chinese exports, with countries like Indonesia and Saudi Arabia increasing their reliance on Chinese imports [26] - **ETF Influence**: ETFs have become a major source of incremental funds in the A-share market, with significant purchases observed since September 2024 [15][16] - **Traditional vs. New Materials**: Traditional industries and new material sectors are both showing strong potential for overseas expansion, with specific companies highlighted for their performance [28][29] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, focusing on the Chinese stock market's dynamics, investment opportunities, and the impact of globalization and domestic policies.

Core Viewpoint - The "Yujia Mountain Initiative" launched by alumni of Huazhong University of Science and Technology aims to address the challenges faced by China's industrial software sector, particularly in the context of AI integration and the need for self-sufficiency in key technologies [1][4]. Group 1: Industrial Software Market Overview - In 2023, China's industrial software market reached approximately 241.4 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3% [4]. - The software business revenue in Wuhan exceeded 350 billion RMB, growing by 16.7%, with industrial software revenue increasing by 51.7% [4]. - The number of newly registered software companies surpassed 43,000, marking a 56.8% increase [4]. Group 2: Challenges and Gaps - China's industrial software market only accounts for 6.7% of the global market share, indicating a significant gap compared to international standards [4]. - Domestic industrial software lacks core technologies and has a strong dependency on foreign solutions for CAD, CAE, and CAM software [5]. - There is a deficiency in standards and specifications for software development, which affects the scalability and configurability of domestic products [5]. Group 3: AI Integration and Future Trends - The integration of AI into industrial software is seen as a key trend, with government support for pilot projects in AI-enhanced industrial software [5][6]. - The application of industrial software is shifting towards cloud and device-based models, moving from internal enterprise deployment to external solutions [6]. - The automotive industry exemplifies this trend, with 70% of innovations stemming from automotive electronics, and 60% of those innovations being software-related [6]. Group 4: Collaborative Efforts and Initiatives - The "Yujia Mountain Initiative" aims to unite resources and intelligence from alumni to tackle the "bottleneck" challenges in industrial software [6]. - The initiative seeks to create a conducive environment for technological innovation, supported by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and local governments [6].