| 投资者关系活 | 特定对象调研 | □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | --- | | 动类别 | □媒体采访 | □业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 | □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 ） | □其他（ | | 参与单位名称 | | | | 及人员姓名 | 高志强、刘光皓——远希私募基金。 | | | 时间 2025 | 年 11 月 13 日 | | | 地点 | 维宏股份会议室 | | | 上市公司接待 | 董事会秘书刘明洲 | | | 人员姓名 | | | | | 首先安排调研人员参观了公司展厅，介绍了公司产品及下游应用场景。 | | | | 主要交流内容如下： | | | | 1、设立嘉兴宏溥是出于什么目的？ | | | | 回复：今年我们有一项重点工作就是要加大股权投资力度，围绕现有 | | | | 业务领域积极进行股权投资布局。投资范围主要两类，一类是工业软 | | | | 件，CAD、CAM、CNC、CAE 等软件；另外一类是智能硬件，各类工业传 | | | | 感器、机器视觉、控制器、驱动器、编码器、电机等高技术含量的核 | | | 投资者关系活 | 心硬件。一直以来 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The industrial software market is gaining attention due to multiple macro factors including policy support, industrial demand, external environment changes, and technological integration [1][2][3] - The Chinese government has set a target to update approximately 2 million sets of industrial software by 2027, providing a clear growth space for the market [1] - The strategic importance of industrial software has increased due to global manufacturing competition, technology blockades, and the need for data-driven innovation [1][2] Group 2: Impact of AI on Industrial Software - AI large models are accelerating the development of industrial software and lowering application barriers, with domestic models like DeepSeek shortening iteration cycles [2] - Investment opportunities are concentrated in multi-dimensional AI applications and product service systems, with generative design and quality root cause analysis being top investment directions [2] Group 3: Industrial Software Lifecycle - The industrial software industry is currently at a stage of uneven development across different categories, with a focus on high-end breakthroughs [3] - Embedded software has a large market size but faces challenges in competing with foreign products, while domestic management and production control software need further development to capture high-end markets [3] Group 4: Categories of Industrial Software - Industrial software can be categorized into four main types: R&D design software, production control software, digital management software, and embedded software, each serving distinct roles in the industrial process [4] Group 5: Technical Barriers in EDA, CAD, CAE - The high technical barriers in EDA, CAD, and CAE software are built on complex algorithms, engineering challenges, knowledge and data limitations, and ecological dependencies [5][6] Group 6: Investment Logic in Industrial Software - The core investment logic in the industrial software sector includes domestic substitution and demand release, product capability enhancement, and new opportunities brought by AI [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4, the company achieved 8.5% constant currency ARR growth and 16% free cash flow growth year-over-year [7][24] - The company generated $100 million of free cash flow in Q4, with total free cash flow for Fiscal 2025 reaching $857 million, up 16% [23][24] - The operating efficiency percentage expanded by 310 basis points to 45% in Fiscal 2025 compared to 42% in Fiscal 2024 [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARR attributable to Kepware and ThingWorx was approximately $160 million, with constant currency ARR growth of -1% [16] - The company closed its largest Codebeamer deal ever and the largest Onshape deal ever, indicating strong performance in the automotive and medtech verticals [8][9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended the year with record-deferred ARR under contract, providing strong visibility into Fiscal 2026 and beyond [9] - The average term length for contracts increased from approximately two years in Q4 of 2024 to approximately three years in Q4 of 2025 [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has reached a definitive agreement for TPG to acquire its Kepware and ThingWorx businesses, allowing it to focus on CAD, PLM, ALM, and SLM, with an emphasis on SaaS and AI [5][6] - The company is enhancing its offerings in CAD, PLM, ALM, and SLM to facilitate the building of product data foundations and embedding more AI capabilities [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in Fiscal 2026, guiding for ARR growth of 7%-9% including Kepware and ThingWorx, and 7.5%-9.5% excluding them [11][26] - The company anticipates a strong pipeline and deferred ARR balance, which is heavily skewed to Q4, indicating a positive outlook for net new ARR growth [30] Other Important Information - The company plans to return excess cash to shareholders, expecting to buy back between $150 million and $250 million worth of shares per quarter during Fiscal 2026 [13] - The transaction for Kepware and ThingWorx is expected to close in the first half of calendar 2026, with potential cash consideration of up to $725 million [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Context behind the decision to divest ThingWorx and Kepware - Management emphasized the focus on core priorities and the intelligent product lifecycle vision, stating that the divestiture allows for greater concentration on strategic areas [33][34] Question: OBBA benefit expected in free cash flow guidance - Management confirmed that the $1 billion free cash flow guidance includes some tailwind from the new Section 174 decision, but also noted the impact of increased CapEx related to transitioning an R&D facility [39][40] Question: Characterization of deal structures this quarter - Management clarified that ramp deals were contracted commitments, indicating strong customer demand and a focus on capturing that demand [43][44] Question: Impact of divestiture on CAM business - Management expressed confidence in the addressable market for the intelligent product lifecycle, stating that the divestiture allows for a stronger focus on existing strategies [49][50] Question: Plans for go-to-market changes in Q1 - Management highlighted the successful vertical alignment and the importance of consistent messaging, with plans to integrate AI into industry-specific communications [58][62] Question: Roadmap execution and RPO comments - Management discussed improvements in product execution and the importance of aligning teams to deliver customer value, with approximately 55% of total RPO expected to be recognized over the next 12 months [66][70] Question: Growth potential and key levers for the business - Management indicated that the foundation for sustainable growth is being established, with a focus on executing the intelligent product lifecycle vision and capturing customer demand [74][75]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 of Fiscal 2025, the company achieved 8.5% constant currency ARR growth and 16% free cash flow growth year over year [5][22] - The total constant currency ARR at the end of Q4 was $2.446 billion, reflecting an 8.5% increase year over year [19] - Free cash flow for the full fiscal year was $857 million, up 16% from the previous year [22][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARR attributable to Kepware and ThingWorx was approximately $160 million, with constant currency ARR growth at negative 1% [16] - The revenue contribution from Kepware and ThingWorx, including perpetual licenses and professional services, was approximately $200 million [16] - The average term length for contracts increased from approximately two years in Q4 of 2024 to approximately three years in Q4 of 2025 [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company closed its largest Codebeamer deal in the automotive vertical and a significant Windchill competitive displacement win in the medtech vertical [6] - The company reported a record increase in RPO, which was up more than $550 million both sequentially and year over year [21][68] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has reached a definitive agreement for TPG to acquire its Kepware and ThingWorx businesses, allowing it to focus on CAD, PLM, ALM, and SLM, with an emphasis on SaaS and AI [4][5] - The strategic decision to divest from Kepware and ThingWorx aligns with the company's focus on the intelligent product lifecycle vision [32][34] - The company plans to return excess cash to shareholders and expects to buy back between $150 million and $250 million worth of shares per quarter during Fiscal 2026 [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving $1 billion of free cash flow in Fiscal 2026, with ARR growth guidance of 7-9% including Kepware and ThingWorx [10][25] - The company anticipates that the divestiture will not significantly disrupt operations and expects to maintain momentum in its go-to-market strategy [10][53] - Management highlighted the importance of structured product data foundations and the role of AI in enhancing customer offerings [11][72] Other Important Information - The company appointed John Stevenson as Chief Product Officer to enhance product operating rhythm and improve roadmap execution [9] - The transaction for the divestiture is expected to close in the first half of calendar 2026, with potential cash consideration of up to $725 million [14][15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Context behind the decision to divest from ThingWorx and Kepware - Management emphasized the focus on core priorities and the intelligent product lifecycle vision, stating that the divestiture allows for greater concentration on these areas [32][33] Question: Impact of cash tax implications on free cash flow guidance - Management confirmed that the $1 billion free cash flow guidance includes some tailwind from the new Section 174 decision, but also factors in increased CapEx related to transitioning an R&D facility [38][39] Question: Characterization of deal structures in Q4 - Management clarified that the majority of large transactions were closed, with ramp deals being contracted commitments rather than uncertain spending [42][44] Question: Thoughts on the CAM business post-divestiture - Management expressed confidence in the addressable market for intelligent product lifecycle and the potential for AI to enhance product data foundations [47][49] Question: Guidance for net new ARR growth - Management indicated a disciplined approach to guidance, factoring in strong deferred ARR and the potential impact of the divestiture on future performance [50][53] Question: Future go-to-market changes - Management highlighted the importance of vertical alignment and the integration of AI into messaging to improve traction and win rates [56][60] Question: Improvements in roadmap execution - Management discussed the focus on aligning teams to execute on AI initiatives and the importance of delivering customer value through product enhancements [64][66][68] Question: Growth potential and key levers for the business - Management noted that building momentum and focusing on the intelligent product lifecycle vision are critical for achieving sustainable growth [71][74]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the **US Dollar (USD)** and its associated risks, particularly in relation to global economic conditions and monetary policy dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **USD Weakening Expectations**: The expectation is for the USD to weaken over the next year, particularly against risk-sensitive currencies, due to falling US real yields and narrowing growth differentials with the rest of the world [8][11][12] 2. **Growth Convergence**: US growth is projected to slow to approximately **1.3% in 2026**, converging with growth rates abroad, which is consistent with the "dollar smile" framework [27][28] 3. **Policy Risks**: The narrowing of the USD's discount to yield-implied fair value is anticipated, with expectations that it may re-widen due to ongoing trade policy and Federal Reserve independence risks [8][11][40] 4. **Fiscal Concerns Abroad**: Easing fiscal concerns in countries like Japan, the UK, and France are expected to reduce the positive premium on the USD, contributing to its decline [8][50][52] 5. **Current USD Positioning**: USD positioning is currently slightly long, indicating a shift from previous short positions, which reduces the risk of significant price swings [12][67] Additional Important Insights 1. **Interest Rate Forecasts**: The forecast indicates that **10-year TIPS yields** will decline to **1.25%** by mid-2026 and further to **0.9%** by the end of next year, contributing to a bearish environment for the USD [14][15] 2. **Trade Recommendations**: Recommendations include maintaining short positions on USD against currencies such as EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, and AUD, with specific target prices provided for each currency pair [16][69] 3. **Risks to USD Outlook**: Upside risks to the USD could arise from stronger-than-expected US growth or a downturn in sentiment regarding investment opportunities outside the US [11][34][36] 4. **Yield Differential Dynamics**: The narrowing of US-RoW rate differentials is expected, with **2-year US yields** projected to decline to **2.0%** by next year, while **2-year German yields** are expected to decrease to **1.6%**, significantly compressing the spread [20][21] 5. **Fiscal Sustainability**: Concerns about fiscal sustainability in Japan and the UK are expected to ease, which may further weigh on the USD as these countries stabilize their fiscal positions [50][52][61] Conclusion The conference call presents a comprehensive analysis of the USD's outlook, emphasizing the interplay between interest rates, growth differentials, and fiscal policies. The overall sentiment leans towards a bearish outlook for the USD, with specific trade strategies recommended to capitalize on anticipated currency movements.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the trend of domestic software and hardware localization driven by major power technology competition, with domestic computing power and software expected to resonate and jointly promote the construction of a localized ecosystem, achieving high-level technological self-reliance and strength [1] - The domestic computing power ecosystem is continuously improving, with companies like Cambricon adapting to the latest AI models and optimizing computing efficiency, significantly reducing costs in long-sequence scenarios [1] - Government policies are accelerating the development of trusted computing and innovation (信创), with preferential pricing for domestic products in government procurement, driving growth in the basic software market, which is expected to reach 25 billion yuan for operating systems and 51.2 billion yuan for databases by 2025 [1] Group 2 - In the industrial software sector, the market share of domestic CAD manufacturers has increased to 27%, and breakthroughs have been made in the localization of EDA tools for analog/digital circuit design, with the global EDA market expected to reach 20 billion USD by 2025 [1] - The software ETF (515230) tracks the software index (H30202), which selects listed company securities involved in software development and IT services to reflect the overall performance of the software industry, focusing on high-growth and innovative software enterprises [1]

Core Insights - The software service index in China has shown a strong upward trend, with a notable increase of 2.19% as of October 28, 2025, driven by significant gains in key stocks such as Kingsoft Office, which rose by 8.77% [1][3] - The software ETF has experienced a cumulative increase of 3.28% over the past week, indicating a robust performance in the sector [1][3] Market Performance - The software ETF recorded a turnover rate of 7.77% and a transaction volume of 4.51 billion yuan, reflecting active trading [3] - Over the past two weeks, the software ETF's scale has increased by 92.39 million yuan, with a notable growth in shares by 76 million [3] - The latest net inflow of funds into the software ETF was 11.84 million yuan, with a total of 112 million yuan attracted over the last ten trading days [3] Growth Projections - By 2027, the market size driven by domestic substitution in government procurement is expected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 18% [3][4] - The Chinese operating system market is projected to reach 25 billion yuan by 2025, while the database market is expected to grow to 51.2 billion yuan [4] Industry Developments - The domestic computing ecosystem is continuously improving, with companies like Cambrian optimizing AI model compatibility and reducing costs in long-sequence scenarios [4] - The market share of domestic CAD software manufacturers has risen to 27%, and breakthroughs have been made in EDA tools for circuit design [4] Key Stocks - The top ten weighted stocks in the software service index account for 62.41% of the index, with notable performers including iFlytek, Tonghuashun, and Kingsoft Office [4][6] - The performance of key stocks includes iFlytek at 2.33%, Tonghuashun at 3.65%, and Kingsoft Office at 8.77%, indicating strong market interest [6]

Core Insights - Huichuan Technology announced on October 27 that the challenges in industrial software vary by category, including PLM, CAD, and CAM [1] - The core difficulty of CAX software lies in the accumulation of underlying mathematics and physical models, where Chinese companies are relatively weak [1] - While some domestic companies can quickly develop customized and simplified products based on customer needs and perform well in niche areas, they still struggle to compete with international giants in building large software integration platforms [1] - The main challenges for the development of industrial software in China are insufficient core technology accumulation and weak platform capabilities [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the "Fifteen Five" plan and its implications for various industries in China, particularly focusing on technology, advanced manufacturing, and service consumption sectors. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Target**: The "Fifteen Five" plan aims for an average GDP growth rate of 4.7%-5% to double the economic output by 2035, transitioning from scale-driven to innovation-driven growth [1][2][4] 2. **Focus on Technological Innovation**: Emphasis on technological innovation as a national strategy, with sectors like broad technology, new energy, nuclear power, and energy storage expected to benefit significantly [1][4][6] 3. **Supply and Demand Balance**: The plan highlights the need for both supply-side optimization and demand-side stimulation, including the elimination of outdated production capacity and enhancement of advanced manufacturing levels [1][4][5] 4. **Service Consumption Growth**: Increased focus on service-oriented consumption, particularly in finance, healthcare, tourism, and dining, as part of the economic recovery strategy [1][4][6][7] 5. **High-Level Opening and Domestic Market**: The plan promotes high-level foreign investment and the establishment of a unified domestic market, aiming to attract international investment while mitigating risks in real estate and local government debt [1][5] 6. **Strategic Metals Investment**: Strategic metals such as copper, aluminum, and rare earths are identified as key investment areas due to their importance in the new economic landscape [1][7] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Aging Population and Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy will increasingly address issues related to an aging population and declining birth rates, focusing on improving living standards and social security [3][9] 2. **High-End Manufacturing and Software Development**: High-end manufacturing is seen as a core driver of the economy, with industrial software becoming crucial in the context of US-China competition [12][17] 3. **Emerging Technologies**: The development of humanoid robots and embodied intelligence is expected to play a significant role in enhancing productivity and driving economic transformation [15][17] 4. **Investment Trends**: Recent capital expenditures are focused on domestic equipment procurement, particularly in the semiconductor industry, which is crucial for achieving self-sufficiency [16][20] 5. **New Consumption Trends**: The new consumption landscape is shifting towards emotional value-driven and quality consumption, with significant potential in offline retail reform and online interest-based consumption [19][20] 6. **Military Modernization**: The "Fifteen Five" plan includes goals for military modernization, with a focus on defense information technology, which is expected to see increased investment starting in 2026 [23] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the strategic directions and potential investment opportunities within the context of China's "Fifteen Five" plan.

Core Insights - The article highlights the emergence of "hidden champions" in the industrial software sector, which, despite their smaller size and lower visibility, dominate specific niches with core technologies [1][2] - These companies are pivotal in driving the digital transformation of Chinese manufacturing, especially in the context of increasing domestic software independence [2][4] Industrial Software ETF Launch - The first industrial software ETF (159108) will be publicly offered from October 27, providing investors with a new tool to invest in "hidden champion" companies [3] - This ETF tracks the National Certificate Industrial Software Theme Index, covering the industrial software value chain [18] Market Dynamics and Policy Support - The current international environment has elevated the strategic importance of self-sufficient industrial software, with a gradual shift away from foreign monopolies [4][5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set a target to complete approximately 2 million sets of industrial software updates by 2027, providing strong support for industry growth [6] Economic Indicators - Recent economic data indicates a gradual recovery in the manufacturing sector, with profits of large industrial enterprises reaching 46,929.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [7] - The demand for industrial software is closely linked to the digital transformation of downstream manufacturing, with signs of improvement in the performance of industrial software companies [8] Performance Metrics - In the first half of 2025, the average revenue growth rate for industrial software index constituents rose to 2.15%, while net profit growth averaged 141.21% [9] - The industrial software index has shown strong historical performance, with a cumulative return of 251.95% since 2013, outperforming the China Securities Software Index [22][24] AI Integration and Innovation - The integration of artificial intelligence is revolutionizing the industrial software landscape, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 19% for the core industrial software market from 2024 to 2029 [13] - AI is enhancing software performance and changing business models, making subscription-based services more acceptable to users [13][15] Company Developments - Domestic software companies are transitioning from "usable" to "user-friendly," with significant improvements in product functionality and performance [15] - Mergers and acquisitions are becoming a key strategy for technological advancement, as seen with Huada Jiutian's acquisition of Chipda Technology and Chiphe Semiconductor [16] Investment Landscape - The ETF's composition includes a significant proportion of small to mid-cap stocks, with over 70% of the total market capitalization being below 50 billion yuan, which maintains growth potential while reducing concentration risk [19] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 58% of the total weight, featuring companies like Huada Jiutian and Zhongwang Software, which are recognized as hidden champions [18][19]