Accessible version Liquid Cross Border Flows Q3 halfway mark Key takeaways FX flows so far in Q3: consolidation Consolidation perhaps best characterises FX flows so far in Q3, after – sharp in the case of USD – positioning adjustments in 1H: investors have bought USD, CHF, and EM FX vs. JPY, GBP, and CAD (Exhibit 1). Among BofA investors, USD shorts are light (Exhibit 2). Exhibit 1: So far in Q3 investors have bought USD, CHF, and EM FX vs. JPY, GBP, and CAD Changes in aggregate FX positioning -40 -20 0 20 ...

Summary of Morgan Stanley's G10 FX Strategy Update Industry Overview - The report focuses on the G10 foreign exchange (FX) market, analyzing various currencies against the US dollar (USD) and providing strategic insights for investors. Key Currency Views USD (US Dollar) - **View**: Bearish - **Skew**: Bearish - The DXY is expected to weaken, particularly against EUR, JPY, and GBP. The risk premium has largely driven the post-Liberation Day move, with potential for further increases in risk premium [2][12][17]. EUR (Euro) - **View**: Bullish - **Skew**: Bullish - EUR/USD is under upward pressure due to increased USD-negative and EUR-positive risk premiums, alongside a compression in Fed-ECB rate expectations [3][18]. JPY (Japanese Yen) - **View**: Bullish - **Skew**: Bullish - Optimism regarding a potential Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike and concerns about the US labor market may lead to speculation about policy convergence, reducing appetite for JPY carry trades [4][19]. GBP (British Pound) - **View**: Bullish - **Skew**: Bullish - GBP/USD is seen as an attractive option for investors, reflecting a carry-neutral expression of a USD-negative, Europe-positive view. The carry remains crucial for GBP's outperformance [5][21]. CHF (Swiss Franc) - **View**: Neutral - **Skew**: Bearish - Short CHF positions are attractive from a carry perspective, but much of the CHF-negative tariff news is already priced in, potentially leading to underwhelming growth expectations [6][22]. CAD (Canadian Dollar) - **View**: Bullish - **Skew**: Bullish - Anticipation of a decline in USD/CAD, even if upcoming CPI shows signs of deceleration. The convergence of US-Canada rates is expected to weigh on USD/CAD [7][25]. AUD (Australian Dollar) - **View**: Bullish - **Skew**: Bullish - Strong domestic fundamentals and elevated yields could lead AUD/USD to re-test 0.6600, with potential upside towards 0.6900 if CPI surprises positively [8][26]. NZD (New Zealand Dollar) - **View**: Neutral - **Skew**: Neutral - A 25bp cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is fully priced in, but stronger-than-expected growth raises the risk of an NZD-positive surprise if the OCR forecast does not decline [9][27]. SEK (Swedish Krona) - **View**: Neutral - **Skew**: Neutral - The upcoming Riksbank meeting is not expected to be a major catalyst, but a rate cut in September is seen as underpriced [14][29]. NOK (Norwegian Krone) - **View**: Neutral - **Skew**: Bearish - A bearish tilt on NOK is noted, with expectations of a lower trough rate from Norges Bank, which may not be fully priced in by the market [16][30]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming economic indicators such as CPI, jobless claims, and PMIs, which could influence currency movements [17][21][25]. - The analysis suggests that the USD's decline since April is primarily driven by risk premium dynamics, with potential for further declines if US rates converge lower towards global peers [12][17]. Trade Ideas - **Long GBP/CHF**: Entry at 1.0927, target 1.12, stop at 1.055 - **Short USD/JPY**: Entry at 147.04, target 135, stop at 151 - **Long EUR/USD**: Entry at 1.1686, target 1.20, stop at 1.11 [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a high conviction level on several currency pairs, including short CNH against an equal-weighted basket (EUR, AUD, KRW) at 4/5, long EUR/INR at 4/5, and long USD/HKD outright at 4/5 [6][10][16] Core Insights - The report suggests a bias towards a weaker USD, despite some short-term headwinds from stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payroll data [8][12] - Key focus points include potential changes in US trade agreements and the influence of Fed Chair Powell's position on USD strength [11][20] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring developments in US tariffs, particularly concerning Japan and other major trading partners [19][20] Summary by Sections Asia FX Strategy - The conviction level on short CNH against an equal-weighted basket has been raised to 4/5, targeting a 4% return by the end of July [11] - Long EUR/INR is favored with a conviction level of 4/5, driven by RBI's bias to maintain FX reserves and local growth slowdown [17] - Short USD/TWD is maintained at a high conviction level of 4/5, with expectations of continued foreign equity inflows and robust local fundamentals [15] G10 FX Strategy - Long EUR/GBP is retained at a conviction level of 4/5 due to fiscal pressures on GBP and potential for further deterioration in economic data [21] - Short USD/JPY recommendations are maintained, with expectations of downward pressure on USD against JPY amid rising tariff risks [19][20] - The report indicates a modestly positive outlook for AUD, with expectations of a rate cut from the RBA [22] Asia Rates Strategy - Conviction on pay 10y HK IRS is raised to 4/5 due to increased HKMA intervention and expectations of upward pressure on USD/HKD forwards [25] - The conviction on pay 5y outright in China is maintained at 4/5, while the conviction on 2s5s steepener is reduced to 3/5 [26] - In India, a 2y NDOIS receive position is maintained, with limited near-term catalysts expected [27]

Investment Ratings - USD View: Bearish with a bearish skew [2][21] - EUR View: Bullish with a bullish skew [3][22] - GBP View: Neutral with a bullish skew [4][23] - JPY View: Bullish with a bullish skew [5][24] - CHF View: Neutral with a bullish skew [6][25] - NOK View: Neutral with a bearish skew [7][26] - SEK View: Neutral with a bearish skew [8][27] - AUD View: Neutral with a bullish skew [9][28] - NZD View: Neutral with a bullish skew [10][29] - CAD View: Bearish with a bearish skew [11][30] Core Insights - Dollar weakness is a prevailing theme in G10 FX views, driven by US growth and rate convergence with the rest of the world, alongside increased FX hedging [21][22] - The EUR/USD is expected to rise to 1.20 and beyond, supported by European investors hedging US assets [3][22] - GBP is seen as constructive due to its carry-to-vol ratio and low perceived trade tension risks [4][23] - JPY may benefit from US-Japan trade uncertainties and lower US terminal rate expectations [5][24] - The CHF is expected to face downside risks due to yield compression despite low inflation [6][25] - The NOK is viewed with a bearish skew due to lower oil price risks and rate headwinds [7][26] - SEK is anticipated to react to incoming economic data with a bearish bias [8][27] - AUD fundamentals remain strong, indicating potential for performance catch-up against the USD [9][28] - NZD's downside against AUD is limited due to minimal yield advantage [10][29] - CAD is recommended for short positions against CHF due to broad USD weakness and negative terms of trade [11][30] Summary by Sections USD - The USD is expected to weaken as growth and rates converge with the rest of the world, with a risk premium of approximately 6% due to increased FX hedging [63][65][68] - The current account deficit stands at 4.6% of GDP, indicating a widening trend [68][70] EUR - The EUR/USD is projected to rise significantly, with options markets underpricing the potential for it to reach 1.25 [99][101] - Europe's current account surplus is increasing, primarily from goods and services [104][106] GBP - GBP's strength is supported by a favorable carry-to-vol ratio and limited trade surplus with the US [135][137] - The UK's current account deficit is stable but financed by more volatile forms of investment [140][142] JPY - JPY may gain from continued weakness in US economic data affecting terminal rate pricing [171][173] - Japan's current account remains positive, with a narrowing trade deficit [176][178] CHF - The CHF is expected to strengthen due to low inflation and yield compression potential [206][209] - Switzerland's current account surplus is high, driven by a strong goods surplus [212][217] NOK - The NOK faces downside risks despite a higher neutral rate estimate from the Norges Bank [238][240] - Norway's current account surplus benefits from oil and gas exports [244][246] SEK - SEK is sensitive to yield differentials, with potential upside risks against EUR [269][271] - Sweden's current account surplus is improving, driven by trade [274][276] AUD - AUD's strong fundamentals suggest a potential catch-up against peer currencies [299][300] - Australia's current account has shifted to a deficit due to increased imports [305][307] NZD - NZD's downside potential against AUD is limited due to a lack of yield advantage [336][338] - New Zealand's current account deficit is narrowing after a peak in 2022 [341][343] CAD - CAD is expected to decline against CHF due to unfavorable terms of trade [371][373] - Canada's current account deficit has narrowed, primarily due to a lower income deficit [378][380]

Core Viewpoint - TELUS Corporation has announced the results of its cash tender offers for certain series of its outstanding notes, increasing the maximum purchase amount to accommodate all tendered 3.95% Senior Notes, Series CAB and 4.10% Senior Notes, Series CAE in full, along with a portion of the 4.40% Senior Notes, Series CU [1][6] Summary by Sections Offers - The offers were made under the terms set forth in the Offer to Purchase dated June 20, 2025 [2] Tender Results - A total of C$3,108,424,000 in principal amount of the notes was validly tendered before the expiration date of June 27, 2025 [3] Notes Information - The following series of notes were included in the offers: - 3.95% Senior Notes, Series CAB due February 2050: C$800 million outstanding, C$691.7 million tendered - 4.10% Senior Notes, Series CAE due April 2051: C$500 million outstanding, C$421.9 million tendered - 4.40% Senior Notes, Series CU due January 2046: C$500 million outstanding, C$436.5 million tendered, C$261.9 million accepted on a pro rata basis [4][6] Total Consideration - The total consideration for each series of notes will be based on the applicable fixed spread plus the yield based on the bid-side price of the applicable Canadian reference security [5] Acceptance Amounts - The company expects to accept C$691.7 million of the 3.95% Senior Notes, C$421.9 million of the 4.10% Senior Notes, and C$261.9 million of the 4.40% Senior Notes, with no acceptance for several other series [6] Financing Condition - The financing condition for the offers has been satisfied due to the closing of a previously announced offering of junior subordinated notes totaling US$1.5 billion [7] Pricing and Settlement - Pricing for the notes is expected to occur on June 30, 2025, with the settlement date anticipated to be July 3, 2025 [8][9] Dealer Managers - The company has retained several financial institutions as lead dealer managers for the offers [10] Termination of Offers - If any offer is terminated, the company will promptly notify the tender agent, and all tendered notes will be returned to the holders [11] Company Overview - TELUS is a leading communications technology company with over C$20 billion in annual revenue and more than 20 million customer connections [15]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the Chinese stock market, particularly A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with emphasis on technology and emerging industries [1][4][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **De-dollarization Trend**: Global funds are shifting away from the US dollar, leading to increased investment in Chinese markets, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1][4] - **Policy Reforms**: Since September 2024, China's policy reforms and collaboration with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange have accelerated capital market reforms, particularly benefiting technology and emerging industries [1][4] - **Investment Opportunities**: PCB (Printed Circuit Board) and overseas computing power are highlighted as key investment areas, with a focus on "leading, localization, and globalization" as future development directions [1][5] - **Economic Challenges and Opportunities**: Current economic challenges include macroeconomic pressures and poor trade data, but long-term opportunities exist in new consumption and technology sectors [2] - **Profitability Concentration**: The trend of leading companies gaining market share is evident, especially in industries like machinery, public utilities, and transportation, where capacity utilization is high [3][17] - **Domestic and Foreign Capital**: Both foreign and domestic capital are crucial for driving equity asset growth, with foreign capital holdings exceeding 3 trillion yuan and domestic capital increasingly influencing pricing in Hong Kong stocks [12][13] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Globalization Impact**: Young leaders (born in the 80s and 90s) are more inclined to implement globalization strategies, leading to sustained growth in overseas revenues for their companies [3][30][31] - **Sector-Specific Trends**: Significant progress in domestic substitution rates in sectors like carbon fiber, special gases, and industrial robots, indicating a steady advancement in localization efforts [8][23] - **Emerging Market Influence**: Emerging markets are becoming significant drivers of Chinese exports, with countries like Indonesia and Saudi Arabia increasing their reliance on Chinese imports [26] - **ETF Influence**: ETFs have become a major source of incremental funds in the A-share market, with significant purchases observed since September 2024 [15][16] - **Traditional vs. New Materials**: Traditional industries and new material sectors are both showing strong potential for overseas expansion, with specific companies highlighted for their performance [28][29] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, focusing on the Chinese stock market's dynamics, investment opportunities, and the impact of globalization and domestic policies.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish outlook on the US dollar due to moderating US exceptionalism and a more growth-supportive monetary and fiscal mix overseas [6][11][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while tariffs remain a headwind for global growth, several currencies such as Antipodeans, NOK, EUR, and JPY are expected to turn the corner on growth [6][11]. - In developed markets (DM), the bearish USD recommendations are barbelled for either a US slowdown (long JPY) or a soft landing scenario (long Scandis, Antipodean, EUR) [6][11]. - In emerging markets (EM), there is a broadening overweight across regions with a preference for Asian creditor currencies (like KRW) and CEE euro-proxies (like CZK) [6][11]. - The report emphasizes that 2025 is different from previous years as no single factor is dominating global FX returns, necessitating a separate analysis of G10 and EM [6][11][24]. - G10 FX forecasts remain unchanged for EUR/USD at 1.22 and USD/JPY at 139, with upgrades for GBP, NZD, and CAD based on improved domestic prospects [6][11][48]. - EM forecasts include a reduction for USD/CNY to 7.15 and USD/ZAR to 17.50, reflecting a more favorable outlook for these currencies [6][11][48]. Summary by Sections Key Currency Drivers - The report identifies several macroeconomic factors influencing FX returns, including US-China trade talks and tariff adjustments [7][8]. - It notes that the reduction of tariffs from 145% to approximately 41% for a 90-day period is a significant development [7][8]. FX Models - The report discusses the performance of various currencies and highlights that the best-performing currencies are often those with current account surpluses [24][25]. - It also notes that the carry-to-value rotation is finally playing out in G10, with surplus countries outperforming [24][25]. G10 FX Short-term Fair Value - The report maintains forecasts for major currency pairs, with a bullish bias on EUR and JPY due to US moderation [56]. - It also highlights that GBP and NZD forecasts have been upgraded based on growth resilience and improved domestic conditions [56]. Technicals - The report indicates that external balances, particularly current account surpluses, have been among the best signals for global FX returns this year [24][25]. - It emphasizes that equity momentum has been a strong strategy for G10 currencies, benefiting from lower policy activity among central banks [24][25]. Trade Recommendations - The report suggests rotating AUD/USD into a long AUD and NZD basket against USD, citing improved domestic prospects for New Zealand [41][56]. - It also recommends an overweight position in EM currencies, particularly in Asia and EMEA, while remaining selective in commodity and frontier markets [23][56].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **foreign exchange (FX) market** and its dynamics, particularly focusing on the **USD**, **EUR**, **CAD**, and **SEK** currencies, as well as the implications of global bond yields and fiscal policies on these currencies [3][4][5][8][19]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **USD Weakness**: Despite a rate advantage, the USD remains weaker against its G10 rivals, indicating structural bearishness. The current account deficit necessitates capital account surpluses, but the USD price required for this may weaken over time [4][14][15]. 2. **Impact of US Policies**: President Trump's fiscal policies, including proposed tariffs, have created volatility in the bond markets, affecting FX price action. The market perceives a lack of commitment to high tariffs, which has led to a rally in bond yields [3][8][9]. 3. **European Central Bank (ECB) Strategy**: ECB President Lagarde's speech emphasized the potential for the euro to gain a greater international role, allowing EU governments to borrow at lower costs. This could position the euro as a counterpoint to US policies [5][17]. 4. **Sweden's Debt Issuance**: Sweden plans to increase debt issuance significantly, which is expected to attract foreign investment due to its AAA rating and stable fiscal environment. This could bolster the SEK [6][28][29][30]. 5. **Canadian Dollar (CAD) Outlook**: The CAD is expected to benefit from US asset rotations, despite its current lag compared to other G10 currencies. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is not anticipated to cut rates, supporting the CAD's uptrend [18][20][21]. Additional Important Points 1. **Bond Market Volatility**: The bond market's volatility has contributed to indecisive FX price action, with significant fluctuations in long-end yields impacting currency valuations [12][14]. 2. **Fiscal Deficits**: Wider fiscal deficits are projected for the US, which may lead to higher risk premiums for US Treasuries, further complicating the USD outlook [13][14]. 3. **Foreign Investment Trends**: The increase in Swedish government bond issuance is expected to reverse a trend of declining foreign ownership, which had fallen by approximately 78% over the past decade [29][33]. 4. **Market Sentiment**: Risk reversals for CAD have turned bullish for the first time since 2009, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards a potential decline in the USD [24][25]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the interplay between fiscal policies, bond market dynamics, and currency valuations.

Core Viewpoint - PTC Inc. reported strong second-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.79, exceeding estimates by 29.7%, and revenues of $636 million, up 6% year over year, driven by robust performance across key business areas despite a challenging environment [1][2]. Financial Performance - Non-GAAP EPS for the prior-year quarter was $1.46, indicating significant growth [1]. - Revenues of $636 million surpassed the consensus estimate by 4.6%, with management projecting revenues between $590 million and $620 million for the upcoming quarter [1][10]. - Recurring revenues reached $601.5 million, a 6.6% increase year over year [3]. - License revenues, accounting for 40% of total revenues, were $254.4 million, up 8.6% from the previous year [4]. - Support and cloud services revenues, making up 55.5% of total revenues, increased by 4.9% to $353 million [4]. - Professional services revenues decreased by 10.3% to $29 million, representing 4.5% of total revenues [4]. Product Group Performance - PLM revenues were $396 million, reflecting a 6% year-over-year increase, while CAD revenues were $240 million, up 5% year over year [5]. ARR Performance - Annualized recurring revenues (ARR) reached $2.29 billion, a 10% increase year over year, with constant currency ARR at $2.326 billion [6]. - PLM and CAD ARR were $1,429 million and $897 million, rising 11% and 8% year over year, respectively [6]. Operating Details - Total operating expenses decreased by 2.2% year over year to $306.6 million [7]. - Non-GAAP operating income rose by 17.8% year over year to $299.3 million, with an operating margin increase of 490 basis points to 47% [7]. Balance Sheet & Cash Flow - As of March 31, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $235 million, up from $196 million as of December 31, 2024 [9]. - Total debt decreased to $1.39 billion from $1.544 billion [9]. - Cash provided by operating activities was $281 million, compared to $251 million in the prior-year quarter [9]. - Free cash flow increased to $279 million from $247 million year over year [9]. Future Guidance - For the third quarter of fiscal 2025, PTC estimates revenues between $560 million and $600 million, with non-GAAP EPS projected in the range of $1.05 to $1.30 [10]. - Full fiscal 2025 revenue projections are now between $2,445 million and $2,565 million, indicating a year-over-year rise of 6-12% [11]. - Non-GAAP EPS for fiscal 2025 is estimated to be between $5.80 and $6.55, suggesting a 14-29% increase [11]. - Cash from operations is projected to be between $855 million and $865 million, indicating a 14% to 15% year-over-year increase [12].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - PTC reported a 10% year-over-year growth in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and a 13% increase in free cash flow for Q2 [4][5][13] - The constant currency ARR at the end of Q2 was $2,326 million, reflecting a 10% increase year-over-year [13] - Free cash flow for Q2 was $279 million, which absorbed $3 million related to go-to-market realignment [14][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARR growth was 8% in CAD, primarily driven by CREO, and 11% in PLM, driven by Windchill, CodeBeamer, and IoT [15] - The Americas saw a 9% ARR growth, Europe 11%, and Asia Pacific 10% year-over-year [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - PTC's gross debt was $1,393 million, with a leverage ratio of 1.5 times [16] - The company paid down $500 million of senior notes due in February and reduced gross debt by $155 million in Q2 [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - PTC's strategy focuses on deepening customer value through PLM, ALM, SLM, CAD, and SaaS, while leading innovation through applied generative AI [29] - The company is actively pursuing a go-to-market transformation to enhance execution and customer engagement [6][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged growing uncertainty related to global trade dynamics and macro pressures, which may affect customer buying behavior [9][10] - Despite the uncertainty, the long-term need for digital transformation remains strong, and PTC is well-positioned to support customers in this transition [12][30] Other Important Information - PTC continues to execute share buybacks under a $2 billion repurchase authorization, with $75 million used to repurchase shares in Q2 [5][16] - The company introduced several AI initiatives across its product lines, including Windchill AI and ServiceMax AI [8][53] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the downside scenario for the 7% ARR growth? - Management explained that the 7% scenario considers potential delays and smaller deal sizes due to macroeconomic conditions, with a bottoms-up and tops-down assessment conducted [33][36][38] Question: What indicators show that the go-to-market changes are working? - The team reported low churn and successful execution of the vertical approach, which has improved customer engagement and pipeline quality [40][43] Question: How should investors think about the $1 billion free cash flow target next year? - Management indicated that it is premature to provide specifics, as various macroeconomic factors will influence the target [46][49] Question: How are customer discussions regarding AI adoption progressing? - Management noted increased customer engagement with AI products, emphasizing the importance of a solid product data foundation for effective AI utilization [52][54] Question: Are the conversations with customers indicating widespread deal postponements? - Management clarified that conversations vary by customer and vertical, with some customers moving forward while others may delay decisions [76][78] Question: What assumptions are behind the new ARR guidance range? - The guidance reflects a cautious outlook due to recent macroeconomic uncertainties, with the potential for improvement if trade issues are resolved [80][81]