这些策略师表示，在美国通胀进一步偏离目标、就业增长放缓的背景下，美联储处境艰难。他们 称："但是，我们认为市场对7月份的非农就业数据反应过度，就业增长的放缓可能与稳定的失业率相 符。"在他们看来，"市场对降息的预期已经反映得过多"，在此背景下，他们青睐押注美国国债收益率 曲线近期趋平的仓位。货币市场预计美联储2025年将降息两次。 周二（8月26日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报98.35，跌幅0.05%，开盘价为98.44。法国兴业银行的利 率策略师在一份研究报告中称，货币市场可能对美联储的降息过于乐观。 MACD指标目前仍然处于0轴上方，显示出短期内汇价可能会有一定的反弹空间，当前的MACD值为 0.0477，表明上涨动能仍在。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses common challenges faced by retail investors in technical analysis, emphasizing the importance of understanding key indicators and market behavior [1][3] - It highlights that using only two indicators, moving averages and trading volume, can provide a clearer picture of market trends compared to relying on multiple complex indicators [3] - The article stresses the significance of identifying support and resistance levels based on historical trading volume rather than arbitrary price points [3][4] Group 2 - It addresses the common frustration of buying high and selling low, suggesting that true market movements can be confirmed by analyzing trading volume during breakouts or breakdowns [3][4] - The article advises against a one-size-fits-all approach to setting stop-loss and take-profit levels, recommending adjustments based on the investor's holding period and market volatility [4] - It concludes that technical analysis should adapt to market conditions, emphasizing the need for investors to understand the underlying market dynamics rather than relying solely on indicators [4]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices surged to approximately $3,357, maintaining a bullish trend due to the passage of Trump's "big and beautiful plan" in the Senate and the approaching deadline for tariff suspension on July 9, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets [1] - The Republican-majority Senate approved a broad tax and spending bill that will cut several social service programs, potentially increasing the deficit by $3 trillion over the next decade, which may stimulate inflation and increase the debt burden, positively impacting the gold market [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that stable economic activity allows the Fed to wait and observe the impact of tariff increases on prices and economic growth before deciding on interest rate cuts, with a focus on inflation data and labor market signs [1] Technical Analysis - The gold price has formed a standard double bottom pattern at low levels, initiating a strong upward trend, with bullish momentum continuing; a consolidation phase is expected before reaching new highs [4] - The MACD indicator shows a death cross signal, indicating a shift into a consolidation phase, with potential for a new bullish wave after sufficient adjustment [4] Trading Strategy - For gold, a long position is suggested at $3,320 with a stop loss at $3,310 and a target range of $3,335 to $3,357 [5] - For silver, a long position is recommended at $35.80 with a stop loss at $35.50 and a target range of $36.30 to $36.70 [9] News Events - Upcoming economic indicators include the Eurozone unemployment rate for May at 17:00, U.S. Challenger job cuts for June at 19:30, and U.S. ADP employment numbers for June at 20:15 [9]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Divergence-Based Turning Points - **Model Construction Idea**: The model identifies potential price turning points by observing divergences between price trends and volume or technical indicators (e.g., MACD). Divergences signal weakening momentum, suggesting a possible reversal in the price trend [2][9]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Identify price making new highs or lows. 2. Check if corresponding volume or MACD fails to make new highs or lows, indicating divergence. 3. Confirm divergence using additional signals: - For MACD, use green bar shortening or yellow/white line crossover for confirmation [10]. - Apply wave theory to filter valid signals by identifying five-wave structures in trends [14][16]. 4. Combine divergence signals with moving averages to determine market conditions (e.g., bull or bear market) [14][16]. - **Model Evaluation**: Divergence signals alone have a success rate of less than 55% for predicting turning points. However, combining them with wave theory and moving averages improves accuracy to over 65% [13][16][17]. 2. Model Name: V-Shaped Reversal Turning Points - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the "Temperature Indicator" to measure the degree of price deviation from moving averages, identifying extreme conditions that may signal V-shaped reversals [3][18][19]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate a moving average (e.g., 60-day for short-term trends, annual for long-term trends). 2. Shift the moving average left by half its parameter length. 3. Linearly extrapolate the last two points of the shifted moving average. 4. Compute the deviation (bias) of each price point from the extrapolated moving average. 5. Calculate the percentile rank of the deviation over a rolling window to derive the "Temperature Indicator," which ranges from 0 to 100 [18][19]. 6. Define thresholds for identifying turning points: - In bear markets, both high-frequency and low-frequency temperature indicators must fall below 10. - In range-bound markets, only the high-frequency indicator below 10 is sufficient. - In bull markets, consider additional risks and adjust thresholds (e.g., high-frequency indicator below 15 or 10) [19][21][26]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies turning points in various market conditions but requires adjustments for bull markets to account for strong trends and potential false signals [27][28]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Divergence-Based Turning Points - **Accuracy**: Basic divergence signals have a success rate below 55% but improve to over 65% when combined with wave theory and moving averages [13][16][17]. 2. V-Shaped Reversal Turning Points - **Bear Market**: High-frequency and low-frequency temperature indicators below 10 successfully identified rebounds in January, February, and April 2022, each lasting over a month [21]. - **Range-Bound Market**: High-frequency temperature indicator below 10 identified rebounds in January and April 2025 during a three-quarter-long consolidation phase [22][25]. - **Bull Market**: High-frequency temperature indicator below 10 or 15 identified five strong buying opportunities in gold futures from 2023 to 2025 [26]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Temperature Indicator - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures price deviation from moving averages to identify extreme overbought or oversold conditions [18][19]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use a moving average (e.g., 60-day or annual) to represent the trend. 2. Shift the moving average left by half its parameter length. 3. Linearly extrapolate the last two points of the shifted moving average. 4. Calculate the deviation (bias) of each price point from the extrapolated moving average. 5. Compute the percentile rank of the deviation over a rolling window to derive the factor value, ranging from 0 to 100 [18][19]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively identifies extreme market conditions but requires different thresholds for bear, range-bound, and bull markets to optimize performance [19][21][26]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Temperature Indicator - **Bear Market**: High-frequency and low-frequency indicators below 10 identified rebounds in January, February, and April 2022 [21]. - **Range-Bound Market**: High-frequency indicator below 10 identified rebounds in January and April 2025 [22][25]. - **Bull Market**: High-frequency indicator below 10 or 15 identified five strong buying opportunities in gold futures from 2023 to 2025 [26].

Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) price has recently surpassed a key resistance level, reaching a new three-month high of $108,652, despite a decrease in trading volume [1] - XBIT decentralized exchange platform is highlighted as a tool for investors to capture market opportunities, leveraging deep liquidity pools and precise strategy tools [1] Price Dynamics - BTC's recent price action shows a "big bullish candle" pattern, closing above the $108,000 mark, but there are conflicting signals in the technical analysis [1] - Key observations include a price increase with a 12% drop in trading volume, indicating potential exhaustion of upward momentum [1] - The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, suggesting a quiet resurgence of buying power, while the KDJ indicator indicates a neutral signal, suggesting a critical point for market direction [1][2] XBIT's Trading Tools - XBIT offers innovative tools to enhance trading certainty, including: - Smart grid trading bots that allow users to set buy/sell ranges and automatically adjust positions based on market movements [4][5] - A volume divergence alert system that monitors liquidity across exchanges and warns users of potential momentum decay [5] - A KDJ neutral zone arbitrage model that helps users manage positions based on KDJ signals [5] Security Measures - XBIT emphasizes security with three main protective features: - On-chain settlement mechanisms that execute orders via smart contracts, ensuring funds are stored in user-controlled wallets [7] - Anti-witch attack networks that utilize zero-knowledge proof technology to protect transaction privacy [7] - An insurance fund that allocates 20% of platform fees to a risk reserve for user compensation during extreme market conditions [7] Liquidity Solutions - XBIT addresses liquidity challenges with innovative solutions: - Cross-chain liquidity aggregation that connects to multiple blockchains for optimal price matching [9] - Institutional-grade dark pools for large trades to minimize market impact [9] - Liquidity mining rewards that incentivize users to provide liquidity, with annual returns up to 18% [9] Market Predictions - Analysts predict three potential scenarios for BTC's price movement: - Optimistic: If BTC closes above $108,309, it could target $120,000 [11] - Neutral: Trading within the $103,249 to $108,309 range, suitable for high-low trading strategies [11] - Pessimistic: A drop below $103,249 could signal a double-top formation [11] - XBIT is preparing to launch new products and features to adapt to market conditions, including leveraged ETF products and integration with Bitcoin Layer 2 networks [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The refined nickel market shows a pattern of supply surplus with a weak and volatile futures market but rising spot premiums, and it is recommended to wait for short - term operations and maintain a long - term strategy of selling hedges at high prices [2][3] - The stainless - steel market is also in a weak and volatile state, with the weakening cost support of nickel - iron raw materials. It is also recommended to wait for short - term operations and maintain a long - term strategy of selling hedges at high prices [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On June 17, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2507 opened at 119,740 yuan/ton and closed at 118,570 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.92% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 100,455 lots and an open interest of 83,823 lots [1] - The main contract 2507 continued to fluctuate narrowly, with the daily line closing in a negative line. The trading volume and open interest increased slightly. The green column area of the daily - line MACD began to expand slowly, and it may enter a weak and volatile stage in the short term. There was a top - divergence phenomenon around 123,000 on the 60 - minute line on June 6. The short - term resistance level is 122,000 - 123,000, and the support level of 119,000 has been broken, showing a bottom - divergence structure [2] - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was lowered by 850 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands decreased. The spot trading of refined nickel was okay overall, and the premiums increased slightly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained at 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,241 (- 109.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 204,936 (1,986) tons [2] Strategy - The recent spot trading of refined nickel is relatively sluggish, and the supply surplus pattern still exists. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 122,000 - 123,000, and the lower limit is around 118,000 - 119,000. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks, and maintain the idea of selling hedges at high prices in the medium and long term [3] - Unilateral: Mainly operate within the range; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [3] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - On June 17, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2508 opened at 12,540 yuan/ton and closed at 12,480 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 105,310 lots and an open interest of 186,878 lots [3] - The main contract continued to fluctuate narrowly, with the daily line closing in a negative line. The trading volume of the 08 contract was basically flat compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased slightly. The green column area of the daily - line MACD did not expand further, and the short - term support level may be around 12,400. The resistance level is around 13,100 [4] - In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market reduced their prices by 100 yuan/ton for shipment compared with the previous trading day, and the market trading volume was average, with no sign of confidence recovery. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation was basically flat compared with the previous trading day, and the seller's quotation was mostly 940 yuan/nickel (delivered to the factory including tax). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will run weakly in the short term. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,850 yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was also 12,850 yuan/ton, with the 304/2B premium ranging from 370 to 670 yuan/ton. The ex - factory average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 927.5 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - Due to the decline in the price of nickel - iron raw materials, the cost support of stainless - steel nickel - iron continues to weaken. It may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term to seek strong support below. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is around 12,400 - 12,500. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks, and maintain the idea of selling hedges at high prices in the medium and long term [5] - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [5]

Group 1 - The overall price trend of Bitcoin is showing a downward movement, breaking through multiple moving averages and exhibiting bearish sentiment [1] - The market may experience fluctuations between the Fibonacci 50% (93033.2) and 61.8% (97429.8) retracement areas in the short term, with a key level at 102000 [1] - In the medium term, the market remains weak, with long-term moving averages indicating downward pressure and no reversal signals present [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows recent formations of "black three soldiers" and "cloud cover" patterns, reinforcing the downward trend [1] - MACD indicators are showing a death cross, with increasing bearish momentum, indicating a weak short-term outlook [1] - Operational suggestions include short positions near 103700-104200 for Bitcoin and 2530-2560 for Ethereum, with targets set at 102000 and 2400-2430 respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the KDJ indicator as a tool for identifying turning points in the stock market, likening it to a "speed sensor" for stock prices, helping investors understand whether the market is accelerating towards a peak or preparing for a rebound [1]. Group 1: KDJ Indicator Overview - KDJ consists of three lines: K (short-term speed), D (medium-term speed), and J (extreme speed), which together monitor stock price momentum [3]. - The combination of these three lines is essential for identifying market turning points [3]. Group 2: Practical Application of KDJ - **Golden Cross and Death Cross**: A golden cross occurs when the K line crosses above the D line, signaling a potential upward movement, while a death cross occurs when the K line crosses below the D line, indicating a possible downward correction. For example, a tech stock saw its price rise from 15 to 30 after a golden cross, then drop back to 20 following a death cross [4]. - **Overbought and Oversold Conditions**: The J line indicates extreme conditions; a J value above 100 signals overbought conditions, while below 0 indicates oversold conditions. For instance, a liquor stock had a J value of 120 before a 15% correction, and a J value of -10 before an 8% rebound [5]. - **Divergence**: A top divergence occurs when the stock price reaches a new high but the KDJ does not, suggesting potential selling pressure. Conversely, a bottom divergence indicates a possible reversal when the stock price hits a new low but the KDJ does not [8]. Group 3: Trading Strategies and Tips - KDJ is best used for short-term fluctuations, particularly in a sideways market, where its signals are more reliable [8]. - In a strong trend, KDJ may remain in overbought or oversold territory, and traders should consider volume and market conditions before making decisions [8]. - A mnemonic for using KDJ effectively is: "Golden cross looks at volume, death cross looks at support, avoid hard resistance in overbought/oversold conditions, and turn quickly when divergence appears" [8].

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is experiencing a significant upward trend driven by export data and support from crude oil prices, but the MACD indicator suggests potential caution for future price movements [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Export data has positively influenced the palm oil market, contributing to its strong performance [1] - Crude oil prices are providing additional support to the palm oil market, enhancing its bullish momentum [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The MACD indicator is revealing contrasting signals, indicating that while the market is currently strong, there may be underlying risks that could affect future price trends [1]

Core Insights - Bitcoin is currently priced at 103,500, facing resistance near previous highs of 105,850, and is in a phase of searching for support amidst fluctuations [1] - The market is suggested to be in an uncertain stage, with recommendations for investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach until clearer market direction emerges [2] - Trading strategies include specific buy and sell points, with a bullish entry suggested at 102,000 and a bearish entry at 105,500, indicating a structured approach to trading based on market data [3] Market Analysis - The trading volume is increasing alongside price movements, indicating strong market confidence, although the initial buy signal from MACD is weak, suggesting caution [5] - Key technical indicators such as the appearance of doji and bottom formations hint at potential reversals, while the presence of a flat bottom may provide short-term support [5] - The effective support level is identified below 102,000, allowing bullish positions to be maintained [5]