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债市日报:6月6日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-06 07:50
Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a strong consolidation, with expectations that the central bank will maintain its current policy on reverse repos to ensure liquidity in the banking system [1][5][7]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.35% to 119.780, and the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.17% to 108.925 [2]. - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined slightly, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.25 basis points to 1.6655% [2]. Monetary Policy Actions - The central bank conducted a 1350 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total of 2911 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1561 billion yuan [5][6]. - The central bank is set to conduct a 10,000 billion yuan buyout reverse repo operation for three months, marking the first public operation of this kind at the beginning of the month [5][7]. Institutional Insights - Citic Securities suggests that the buyout reverse repo operations will continue to be a channel for medium to long-term liquidity, with pricing becoming more market-oriented [7]. - Dongfang Jincheng notes that the central bank's announcement of large-scale buyout reverse repos is likely related to the peak of interbank certificate maturities in June, which amounts to 4.16 trillion yuan [7]. - Huachuang Fixed Income indicates that the central bank's approach to announcing operation scales in advance will help institutions manage liquidity better [7].
美债收益率陷入拉锯战 通胀与财政风险成焦点
智通财经网· 2025-06-05 22:33
Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains below 4.5%, indicating economic uncertainty and multiple factors affecting market direction [1] - Global investors are reassessing debt and deficit issues across countries, not just in the U.S., with expectations of rising global bond yields [1][2] - The decline in the international appeal of U.S. Treasuries is evident as foreign investors, particularly from Japan, shift their focus back to domestic markets due to rising Japanese bond yields [2] Group 2 - Japan's government debt-to-GDP ratio is the highest among developed countries at 235%, while the U.S. stands at 122% [3] - Concerns are rising regarding European sovereign debt as fiscal pressures increase, with Germany's 10-year bond yield expected to rise from 2.5% to 3% [3] - The U.S. fiscal policy and tariff uncertainties complicate predictions for the 10-year Treasury yield, which is projected to end the year at 4.25% [3] Group 3 - A proposed tax bill in the U.S. could increase the fiscal deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, with the current fiscal deficit at 6.4% of GDP [4] - The likelihood of a severe market reaction similar to the U.K.'s past situation is considered low due to high current yields helping to stabilize the market [4] Group 4 - A sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields could negatively impact the stock market, leading to wider credit spreads and tighter financial conditions, ultimately suppressing economic growth [5] - Concerns about U.S. debt management are highlighted, with warnings that failure to control debt could lead to significant market disruptions [5]
英国央行副行长布里登:债券收益率的上升并非英国单方面的现象。
news flash· 2025-06-03 10:04
英国央行副行长布里登:债券收益率的上升并非英国单方面的现象。 ...
日本央行行长植田和男:不会对债券收益率的短期变动发表评论。
news flash· 2025-06-03 08:34
日本央行行长植田和男:不会对债券收益率的短期变动发表评论。 ...
2、10、50年期英债收益率5月份至少涨超21个基点
news flash· 2025-05-30 22:59
30年期英债收益率累涨16.3个基点,50年期英债收益率累涨24.5个基点。 2/10年期英债收益率利差跌2.9个基点,报+62.089个基点,5月份累跌1.471个基点。 周五(5月30日)欧市尾盘,英国10年期国债收益率跌0.2个基点,报4.647%,5月份累计上涨21.3个基 点,在震荡上行趋势中,于5月22日达到4.799%,随后略微回吐涨幅。 两年期英债收益率涨2.8个基点,报4.023%,5月份累涨22.0个基点,5月22日曾达到4.117%。 ...
2-30年期英债收益率跌约8个基点,美国贸易法庭对特朗普关税的裁决带来的影响昙花一现
news flash· 2025-05-29 16:26
周四(5月29日)欧市尾盘,英国10年期国债收益率跌7.9个基点,刷新日低至4.648%,北京时间17:56 涨至4.765%刷新日高,随后持续下跌。 两年期英债收益率跌8.0个基点,刷新日低至3.994%,15:00欧股开盘时涨至4.103%刷新日高。 30年期英债收益率跌8.6个基点,刷新日低至5.394%;50年期英债收益率跌6.0个基点,刷新日低至 4.661%。 2/10年期英债收益率利差跌0.043个基点,报+64.990个基点。 ...
摩根资管全球固收主管:投资者无法承受10年期美债收益率从5%涨至5.4%,届时财政部和美联储的回应值得留意
news flash· 2025-05-29 16:13
Core Viewpoint - The market may withstand a rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to 4.95%, but crossing the 5% threshold, especially reaching 5.40%, would be extremely challenging for bond investors [1] Group 1 - Bob Michele, the global head of fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management, expressed concerns about the impact of rising yields on bond investors [1] - A potential increase of 25 basis points for the 30-year Treasury yield would also be significantly painful for investors [1] - The response from the Treasury and the Federal Reserve will be crucial in addressing these yield changes [1]
美国借款人迎来借贷成本高企时代
财富FORTUNE· 2025-05-29 11:44
Core Viewpoint - The recent tax reduction measures proposed in the Republican "Big and Beautiful" bill are prompting investors to sell U.S. Treasuries, reminiscent of the 2007 market behavior, indicating a potential long-term rise in borrowing costs for U.S. borrowers [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Yield Trends - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, a benchmark for various loans, has seen a significant rise, with the 30-year yield surpassing 5% for the first time in nearly two years, reaching its highest level since spring 2007 [3][6]. - Morgan Stanley's Jim Caron suggests that interest rates are unlikely to return to historical lows, indicating a need to adapt to a steeper yield curve and persistent inflation [3][8]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The rise in bond yields is attributed to the Federal Reserve's actions to combat inflation, which have diminished the attractiveness of existing bonds compared to newly issued ones [5][6]. - Concerns over rising inflation and federal deficits, exacerbated by tax cuts and tariffs, are driving up interest rates, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting a federal deficit of $1.9 trillion for FY2025, representing 6.2% of GDP [6][7]. Group 3: Political and Fiscal Dynamics - The "Big and Beautiful" bill is expected to increase the deficit by $3.8 trillion by 2034, raising concerns among investors about the sustainability of such fiscal policies [7]. - The potential for a unified Republican government to maintain large deficits poses risks, as highlighted by Moody's recent downgrade of U.S. debt ratings due to deficit concerns [7][8]. Group 4: Global Economic Factors - Caron emphasizes that the current rise in yields is not a temporary phenomenon, contrasting with the declining trend of borrowing costs since the 1980s, which was largely due to low inflation rates influenced by globalization [8][11]. - The ongoing concerns about U.S. debt and shrinking global trade may weaken demand for U.S. Treasuries, further pushing up bond yields [11][12].