Core Points - The US Government shutdown has lasted for 40 days, significantly impacting the world's largest economy [1] Economic Impact - The shutdown has resulted in the US economy operating with reduced efficiency, described as "one hand tied behind its back" [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It covers various commodities such as soybeans, palm oil, and crude oil, as well as international and domestic economic and political events that may impact the market. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes are reported for various futures contracts, including palm oil, Brent crude, and soybeans. Currency exchange rates and their percentage changes are also provided [1]. Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE豆油, and DCE豆粕 are presented for different regions [2]. Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - Rain is expected in central and southern Brazil this week, which is beneficial for soybean crops. In Argentina, soybean sowing is expected to accelerate this month, but long - term weather may turn dry [5]. 国际供需 - Sabah in Malaysia is the biggest beneficiary of the oil palm replanting financing incentive plan, receiving 61 million Malaysian ringgit in grants. The US EPA will decide on small refineries' exemption applications. Brazilian soybean sowing progress and Canadian rapeseed export data are also reported [7][8]. 国内供需 - On November 7, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased. The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the oil mill's operating rate decreased. China's soybean and edible vegetable oil import data are provided, along with pig - raising profits and agricultural product price indices [11][12]. Macro要闻 国际要闻 - The US Senate failed to pass a motion on a federal employee appropriation bill, and the government "shutdown" persists. US consumer confidence and inflation expectations are reported [15]. 国内要闻 - The US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate decreased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds. China's CPI and foreign trade data are reported, and the import qualification of US soybean enterprises is restored [17][18]. 资金流向 - On November 7, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 1.017 billion yuan, with different flows in commodity, stock index, and bond futures [21]. 套利跟踪 - No specific information provided in the content

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the US stock market has experienced a decline due to multiple factors, including concerns over high valuations in the artificial intelligence sector, a record-length government shutdown, and the absence of key economic data leading to confusion in expectations [2][8] - The report highlights that the current market expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is at 66.5% [2][8] - Key economic data for October shows that the ISM Manufacturing PMI is at 48.7, below expectations of 49.5, while the ADP employment number is at 42,000, exceeding expectations of 28,000 [2][8] Group 2 - The report tracks global major asset performance, noting that CBOT soybean oil has the highest increase at +2.08%, while the Nikkei 225 has the largest decline at -4.07% [3][34] - In the equity market, the Hang Seng Index shows the largest gain at +1.29%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has the largest drop at -3.04% [3][37] - Sector performance indicates that the energy sector in the US has the highest increase at +1.49%, while the information technology sector has the largest decline at -4.43% [3][43] Group 3 - The report provides updates on global economic data, noting a rebound in the Eurozone industrial confidence index and an increase in the UK PMI [59][63] - The report also tracks important upcoming data releases, including the US October CPI and employment figures, which are expected to influence market expectations [68][71]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate passed a "continuing resolution" to extend funding for most government agencies until January 30, 2026, marking the end of a 40-day federal government shutdown [1][3] - The resolution includes three long-term budget proposals, allowing for continued funding of various federal operations and addressing the ACA tax credit extension in December [1][3] - The agreement also rescinds over 4,000 federal employee layoff notices issued during the shutdown and ensures full compensation for furloughed workers [3][4] Economic Impact - Following the Senate negotiations, U.S. stock futures saw a slight increase, with the S&P 500 futures rising by 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures increasing by 1% [5] - The government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, contributing to a decline in consumer confidence to its lowest level in over three years [5] - The shutdown has negatively affected the airline industry, with thousands of flights canceled and warnings of potential increases in cancellations during the Thanksgiving period [5] Political Dynamics - The agreement reflects internal divisions within the Democratic Party, with some leaders expressing strong opposition to temporary funding measures that do not address healthcare issues [4][6] - The ongoing budget standoff highlights structural flaws in the U.S. budgeting system, with political loyalty and ideological battles complicating fiscal negotiations [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding bill to end the government shutdown, providing funding until January 30, 2026 [1] - As of November 9, the government shutdown has lasted for 40 days since October 1 [2] - Following the Senate's approval of the funding bill, U.S. stock index futures surged, with Nasdaq futures rising over 1.2% and S&P 500 futures increasing by 0.7% [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding bill aimed at ending the government shutdown, providing funding until January 30, 2026 [2] - Following the Senate's approval of the funding bill, U.S. stock index futures surged, with Nasdaq futures rising over 1.2% and S&P 500 futures increasing by 0.7% [2]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown is nearing an end as moderate Democratic senators agree to support a deal to restart the government and fund certain departments for the entire year [2][3] - The agreement includes full-year budgets for the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and Congress itself, while funding for other agencies will continue until January 30 [2] - The bill will retroactively pay salaries to furloughed government employees, restore federal funding to state and local governments, and recall employees laid off during the shutdown [2] Legislative Process - The Senate is set to hold a procedural test vote, and if it passes, a full Senate vote will be required to quickly end the shutdown [3] - The House of Representatives must also pass the bill to restart government operations, with Speaker Mike Johnson indicating that he will notify members two days in advance for a vote [4] Political Dynamics - President Trump expressed optimism about the shutdown ending, while Senator Tim Kaine emphasized the bill's prohibition on new federal layoffs before January 30 [5] - The House Democrats, led by Hakeem Jeffries, plan to oppose the Republican bill, indicating a continuation of partisan tensions [6] - The ongoing negotiations reflect a pattern where parties attempt to leverage government shutdowns for policy victories, which historically have not succeeded [6] Budgetary Implications - The Democrats have previously rejected a clean temporary spending bill that would have kept departments running until November 21 [7] - The Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer stated opposition to the current agreement, advocating for an extension of the soon-to-expire Obamacare tax credits [7] - The Republican strategy has pressured Senate Democrats into compromise, although they still need bipartisan support to end debate on the spending bill [7] Economic Impact - The shutdown is causing an estimated loss of $15 billion per week to the U.S. economy, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting a 1.5 percentage point reduction in annualized GDP growth rate due to the shutdown [9] - The halt in government data releases is complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to address ongoing inflation and rising unemployment [10] Outcomes of the Agreement - The proposed spending bill includes some Democratic wins, such as blocking cuts to international food aid and increasing security budgets for Congress [11] - If passed, the bill will restrict the sale of intoxicating cannabis products, potentially benefiting the beer industry, while the cannabis industry claims this could jeopardize 325,000 jobs [12]

9日，达菲在接受美国有线电视新闻网采访时说，如果联邦政府"停摆"持续下去，情况只会越来越糟， 预计在11月底感恩节前的两周，航空交通将"几乎陷于停滞"。白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特9日 在接受美国哥伦比亚广播公司采访时表示，感恩节期间是一年中经济最活跃的时段之一，那时正值"黑 色星期五"消费高峰，如果人们在那段时间无法出行，那么第四季度美国经济很可能会出现负增长。 美国东部时间9日17时30分左右，航班跟踪网站数据显示，美国当天国内和国际航班已有2309架次取 消，8113架次航班延误。近几日，美国每天航班延误数量均超过7000架次。自7日强制削减航班政策实 施以来，航班取消数量从6日的202架次，陡增至7日的1025架次，再增至8日的1566架次。 在联邦政府"停摆"影响越来越大的背景下，国会两党结束僵局的压力也在上升。7日，国会参议院民主 党人提出一项结束"停摆"方案，包括将定于今年年底失效的《平价医疗法案》加强型医保补贴延长一 年，这一提议被参议院共和党人拒绝。9日，美国参议院罕见地于周日召开会议。 新华社华盛顿11月9日电（记者熊茂伶 杨伶）9日，美国联邦政府"停摆"已进入第40天。截至傍晚，全 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate has reached an agreement to end the federal government shutdown that has lasted for 40 days, with a plan to vote on a bill that combines short-term funding measures with three annual appropriations bills [5][6] - The temporary funding measure is expected to provide government funding until January 2026 and has garnered sufficient support from Democratic senators for passage [5][6] - The Senate will first vote on the temporary funding resolution previously blocked 14 times, followed by amendments to include annual appropriations and a longer funding extension [5][6] Group 2 - Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated that the revised funding plan must also pass the House of Representatives and be signed by President Trump, which may take several days [5][6] - Senate Democrats have been resisting the funding bill to pressure Republicans into agreeing to reforms in the healthcare system, including extending subsidies under the Affordable Care Act [8] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin warned that if the shutdown continues, economic growth for the fourth quarter could be halved, while White House economic advisor Hassett suggested that growth might turn negative [8][9]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate has reached an agreement to end the federal government shutdown, which has been a significant factor in recent liquidity issues in the market [1][2][4] - The agreement will provide funding for the government until January 30, 2024, and includes provisions to prevent future shutdowns [2][3] - The market reacted positively to the news, with major stock indices and cryptocurrencies experiencing significant gains [1][4][6] Market Reaction - Major U.S. stock indices, including the Dow Jones and S&P 500, saw increases of approximately 0.3% and 0.41% respectively [5] - European stock index futures also rose, with the DAX futures up by 1.3% [1][4] - In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin surged past $106,000 and Ethereum exceeded $3,600 [1][6] Economic Context - The government shutdown has lasted for 40 days, surpassing the previous record of 35 days, leading to a tightening of market liquidity [6][7] - The shutdown has delayed salary payments to federal employees, impacting consumer spending, which constitutes 80% of overall expenditure [7] - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance has risen to $1 trillion due to ongoing financing without expenditure during the shutdown [7]