投资咨询业务资格:证监会许可【2012】31号 | - | | --- | | 糖 | | 1 国内 | | 小 库存 | 巴西糖配额外进口利润 --- 2019 -- 2020 ----- 2021 23/24 - 19/20 ------ 20/21 ------ 21/22 ------- 22/23 - 24/25 2400 800 2023 -- 2022 2024 1600 600 800 400 -800 200 -1600 -2400 0 12月 11月 5月 10月 1月 2月 3月 4月 6月 7月 8月 9月 郑糖9-1月差 柳州-09基差 - SR1909-SR2001 SR1809-SR1901 ---- SR2009-SR2101 -- SR1909 - SR1809 ------ SR2009 ==== SR2109 SR2109-SR2201 ---- SR2309-SR2401 -- SR2209-SR2301 600 1200 -- SR2309 SR2409 SR2509 SR2209 SR2409-SR2501 SR2509-SR2601 400 800 200 400 ...

| 1 | | | 农产品中心 | 期货从业资格证号 | | 投资咨询证号 | 2025/6/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 谢威 | F03087820 | | Z0019508 | | | 团日 | | 地区 | 2025/6/4 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水 | 与2509基差 | 涨跌值 | | / 报 糖 | 广西 | 南宁仓库 | 6190 | 0 | 0 | 442 | -16 | | 吨价现 | 云南 | 昆明 | 5910 | -40 | -100 | 262 | -56 | | い、賞 | | 大理 | 5855 | -15 | -140 | 247 | -31 | | 元集 | 山东 | 日照 | 6270 | 0 | 100 | 422 | -16 | | 数 盘 | | SR09 | 5748 | 16 | | | 9 | | 据 面 | | SR01 | 5624 | 7 | SR09-01 | 124 | | | दि | 人民币兑美元 | 7. 2065 | -0. 0141 | ice原糖主 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 06 月 04 日 白糖：低位震荡 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 高频信息：美宣布对钢铝征收 50% 关税；巴西中南部 MIX 同比大幅提高；USDA 预计 25/26 榨季全球 产量增长 4.73%；巴西 4 月出口 155 万吨，同比减少 18%；截至 5 月 15 日，印度 24/25 榨季产糖 2574 万吨。 中国 1-4 月常规进口，糖浆和预拌粉进口大幅下降。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 24/25 榨季国内食糖产量为 1115 万吨，消费量为 1580 万吨，进口量为 500 万 吨；CAOC 预计 25/26 榨季国内食糖产量为 1120 万吨，消费量为 1590 万吨，进口量为 500 万吨。中国糖业 协会数据显示，截至 4 月底，24/25 榨季全国共生产食糖 1111 万吨（+115 万吨），全国累计销售食糖 724 万 吨（+150 万吨），累计销糖率 65.2%。中国海关数据显示，截至 4 月底，24/25 榨季中国进口食糖 174 万吨 （-138 万吨）。 国际市场：ISO 预 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The report indicates that the raw sugar price has broken through the support level and declined. The trend strength of sugar is -1, suggesting a bearish outlook [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 16.91 cents per pound, down 0.34 cents year - on - year. The mainstream spot price is 6120 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan year - on - year. The futures main contract price is 5795 yuan per ton, down 46 yuan year - on - year [1]. - **Spread Data**: The 91 spread is 121 yuan per ton, down 12 yuan year - on - year. The 15 spread is 36 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan year - on - year. The mainstream spot basis is 325 yuan per ton, up 36 yuan year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **High - frequency Information**: Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress is slower than the same period last year. The USDA expects the global sugar production in the 25/26 season to increase by 4.73%. Brazil exported 1.55 million tons of sugar in April, a year - on - year decrease of 18%. As of May 15, India's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 25.74 million tons. China's imports of regular sugar, syrup, and premixed powder from January to April decreased significantly [1]. 3.3 Domestic Market - **Production, Consumption, and Import Forecast**: CAOC predicts that China's sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 11.15 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons. In the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [2]. - **Production and Sales Data**: As of the end of April, China's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.11 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons. Cumulative sugar sales were 7.24 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons, and the cumulative sales rate was 65.2%. China's sugar imports in the 24/25 season were 1.74 million tons, a decrease of 1.38 million tons [2]. 3.4 International Market - **Supply and Demand**: ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously 4.88 million tons) [3]. - **Production Data**: As of May 1, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season decreased by 33 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 1.58 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons. As of May 15, India's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 25.74 million tons, a decrease of 5.8 million tons. As of April 9, Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.05 million tons, an increase of 1.31 million tons [3]. 3.5 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of sugar is -1, indicating a bearish view, with the range of trend intensity being integers from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4].

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 19 日 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨 | | 美分 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The New York raw sugar futures declined on Monday, with the main July contract closing down 0.73% at 17.65 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures' main August contract closed down 1% at $495.00 per ton. The raw sugar main contract failed to break through the 18 - cent mark, and although the sugar price stabilized and rebounded, the upward momentum was insufficient [7]. - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract dropped yesterday. The 09 contract closed at 5,853 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan or 0.26%, with an increase of 889 contracts in positions. The decline was due to following the raw sugar trend and market rumors of the issuance of out - of - quota import licenses, which may increase the pressure of imported sugar on the domestic sugar market starting from June. After the market, some speculative long - positions were liquidated, and overall market participation was low [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: SR509 closed at 5,853 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan or 0.26%, with a position of 309,043 contracts and an increase of 889 contracts; SR601 closed at 5,718 yuan per ton, down 18 yuan or 0.31%, with a position of 29,022 contracts and an increase of 691 contracts; US sugar 07 closed at 17.65 cents per pound, down 0.13 cents or 0.73%, with a position of 337,900 contracts and a decrease of 8,060 contracts; US sugar 10 closed at 17.83 cents per pound, down 0.09 cents or 0.50%, with a position of 163,719 contracts and an increase of 428 contracts [7]. - **Domestic Spot Market**: Domestic spot prices in production areas remained stable, with Kunming sugar priced at 5,960 yuan and Nanning sugar at 6,130 yuan [8]. 2. Industry News - **Global Sugar Demand**: Global sugar demand has been growing at a rate of 1.1% per sugar - making season over the past 15 years. It is expected to reach 178 million tons (in white sugar equivalent) or 193.6 million tons (in raw sugar equivalent) in the 2024/25 season [9]. - **Yunnan Sugar Mills**: As of a certain date, 43 sugar mills in Yunnan had completed the crushing process, 4 less than the same period last year, with a crushing capacity of 153,400 tons per day, a decrease of 16,800 tons per day compared to the previous year, and 9 sugar mills had not completed the process [9]. - **Brazilian Sugar Exports**: In April, Brazil exported 1,555,777.09 tons of sugar, with an average daily export volume of 77,788.85 tons, a 9% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in April of the previous year [9]. - **Guangxi Sugar Sales**: As of the end of April, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi reached 4.1353 million tons, an increase of 554,300 tons compared to the same period last year; the sales - to - production ratio was 63.96%, an increase of 6.03 percentage points. In April, the monthly sugar production was 4,200 tons, a decrease of 72,300 tons compared to the previous year, and the monthly sugar sales were 657,300 tons, a decrease of 8,800 tons compared to the previous year. The industrial inventory was 2.3297 million tons, a decrease of 270,700 tons compared to the previous year [9]. - **Yunnan Sugar Sales**: As of April 30, 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in Yunnan reached 1.3168 million tons (compared to 941,100 tons in the same period last year). The monthly sugar sales were 280,400 tons (compared to 189,500 tons in the same period last year), the sales - to - production ratio was 55.71% (compared to 46.53% in the same period last year), and the industrial inventory was 1.047 million tons (compared to 1.0816 million tons in the same period last year) [9]. 3. Data Overview - **Transaction and Position Data**: The total trading volume of the top 20 members in the Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 217,778 lots, a decrease of 33,078 lots; the total long - position was 229,470 lots, an increase of 2,004 lots; the total short - position was 225,855 lots, a decrease of 859 lots [21].

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 13 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 昨日，郑糖主力合约反弹。09 合约收盘 5885 元/吨，上涨 45 元或 0.77%，减 仓 8936 张。国内产区现货价报价提升，昆明糖报价 5960 元，南宁糖报价 6130 元。今天郑糖跟随原糖节奏反弹，涨幅相对较小，主 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 05 月 11 日 白糖：区间整理为主 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾 国际市场方面，美元指数 100.42（前值 100.04），美元兑巴西雷亚尔 5.65（前值 5.64），WTI 原油 价格 61.06 美元/桶（+4.59%），纽约原糖活跃合约价格 17.82 美分/磅（+3.18%）。截至 5 月 6 日，基金 多单减少 3757 手，基金空单增加 19504 手，净多单同比减少 23261 手至 11269 手，净多单大幅减少。 UNICA 数据显示，截至 4 月 16 日，25/26 榨季巴西中南部累计产糖 73 万吨，同比增加 1 万吨。 ISMA/NFCSF 数据显示，截至 4 月 30 日，24/25 榨季印度产糖 2570 万吨，同比减少 577 万吨。OCSB 数 据显示，截至 4 月 9 日，24/25 榨季泰国产糖 1005 万吨，同比增加 131 万吨。 国内市场方面，广西集团现货报价 6150 元/吨，环比上周下跌 40 元/吨；郑糖主力报 5839 元 ...

研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 8 日 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨 | 美分/磅） | 涨跌 | ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - New season sugar in Brazil is gradually coming to the market, putting pressure on the market. The 5 - month contract delivery volume is expected to reach about 2 million tons, which may indicate weak spot sales. Uncertain factors mainly lie in the India - Pakistan conflict [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar is expected to face import pressure in the third quarter due to the opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports. Zhengzhou sugar is regarded as bearish [8]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - SR505 closed at 6073 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan or 0.85%, with a position of 13,644 contracts, a decrease of 2,518 contracts. SR509 closed at 5890 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.02%, with a position of 305,344 contracts, a decrease of 858 contracts. US sugar 05 closed at 17.38 cents/pound, down 0.24 cents or 1.36%, with a position of 30,343 contracts, a decrease of 14,074 contracts. US sugar 07 closed at 17.24 cents/pound, down 0.30 cents or 1.71%, with a position of 348,504 contracts, an increase of 2,994 contracts [7]. Market Analysis - New York raw sugar futures weakened on Friday, with the main July contract down 1.71% to 17.24 cents/pound. London ICE white sugar futures were closed for the UK public holiday. During the May Day holiday, foreign raw sugar maintained a weakening trend. The new season sugar in Brazil is gradually coming to the market, and the 5 - month contract delivery volume is expected to reach about 2 million tons, which may indicate weak spot sales. Uncertain factors mainly lie in the India - Pakistan conflict [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract showed a weak shock. The 09 contract closed at 5890 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.02%, with a reduction of 858 contracts. The spot prices in domestic production areas declined. After the rainfall in Guangxi, the market lost the impetus for speculation. The weak foreign raw sugar also dragged down Zhengzhou sugar, and the profit window for out - of - quota imports in China opened, so the import pressure in the third quarter is expected to be large. Zhengzhou sugar is regarded as bearish [8]. Group 5: Industry News - As of April 30, India had produced 25.69 million tons of sugar, and about 19 sugar mills were still in operation. About 10 sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh were still operating, and 8 of them were in western Uttar Pradesh. These sugar mills are expected to continue operating for 7 - 10 days. The increase in sugarcane production has improved the sugarcane supply in Uttar Pradesh, allowing some sugar mills to continue operating. In addition, the increase in sugar recovery rate in the second half of the season has also increased sugar production [9]. - From the Brazilian foreign trade secretariat's export data on April 28, Brazil exported 1,281,866.53 tons of sugar in the first four weeks of April, with an average daily export volume of 75,403.91 tons, a 12% decrease compared to the average daily export volume of 85,875.17 tons in the whole of April last year. The total export volume in April last year was 1,889,253.72 tons [9]. - Ukraine will reduce its sugar beet planting area by 17% this year, resulting in a significant decline in sugar production and a sharp drop in exports, especially to the EU. It is expected that Ukraine's sugar production will drop to 1.5 million tons this year, down from 1.8 million tons last year, and the export volume will be reduced to 180,511 tons, compared with 746,000 tons in 2024 [9]. - According to a survey of 23 analysts by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the sugar production in the central - southern main producing area of Brazil in the first half of April is expected to be 694,000 tons, a 3.8% decrease compared to the same period last year [9]. - According to the latest forecast of the US Department of Agriculture, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season may reach 671 million tons, of which 618 million tons will come from the central - southern region accounting for 91% of the country's production, and 53 million tons will come from the northeast and north regions. Brazil will continue to be the world's largest sugarcane and sugar producer in the next season [9][10]. Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including spot price trends, 2509 contract basis, SR5 - 9 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and holding positions of the top 20 seats in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [11][13][16][20].