Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - Cotton: In the short term, both international and domestic cotton markets face supply pressure and weak demand, but the downside space is limited. In the medium - long term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range. For domestic cotton, new - year supply - demand is not expected to be too loose, and cotton prices can be optimistically viewed after seasonal pressure [1][2] - Sugar: The global sugar supply surplus pattern in the 25/26 season remains unchanged, and the short - medium - term rebound space of international sugar prices is limited. Zhengzhou sugar has low valuation, and the short - term downside space is also limited [4] - Pulp: Although the supply - demand situation has not been substantially improved, the previous negative factors have been digested, and the marginal incremental demand for pulp raw materials in the future may support the pulp price to stabilize gradually [7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 13,945 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,968 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,130 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. As of December 13, the planting progress of 2025/26 Brazilian cotton was 10.1%, up 4.8 percentage points month - on - month and 2.1 percentage points slower year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - International: In the 25/26 season, global cotton production and demand both decreased, and the ending inventory slightly increased. US cotton production continued to increase slightly, with obvious inventory - building pressure. In the short term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, and in the medium - long term, the downside space is limited [1] - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton continued to increase in production. Short - term supply is abundant, but the hedging resistance on the futures market has weakened. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, and the downside space of cotton prices is limited [1] Strategy - Be neutral to bullish, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract at low prices. Focus on the change of the cotton target price policy next year [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,133 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton (-1.42%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,260 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. Brazil exported 1.6008 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of December, a year - on - year increase of 37.65% [3] Market Analysis - International: The short - term rebound of raw sugar futures is supported, but the global sugar supply surplus pattern in the 25/26 season remains unchanged, and the short - medium - term rebound space is limited. - Domestic: The supply of Zhengzhou sugar is abundant in the short term, and the fundamental driving force is downward, but the low valuation limits the short - term downside space [4] Strategy - Be neutral. Pay attention to the impact of capital on the futures market, and treat it with a low - level consolidation mindset [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,468 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan/ton (-1.87%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,540 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,075 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. Most pulp prices were stable, and a few decreased slightly [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance plans. The Crofton paper mill in Canada will be permanently closed, and the Rauma pulp mill of Stora Enso will be temporarily shut down. - Demand: European port pulp inventory decreased in October. In China, although there is a large amount of finished paper production capacity, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is still at a high level, but it has decreased recently. The expansion of downstream paper production capacity in the future will increase the demand for pulp [7] Strategy - Be neutral. The previous negative factors have been digested, but the supply - demand situation has not been substantially improved, which limits the upward space of pulp prices. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the futures market [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the short - term, under the weak trend of domestic and international sugar prices, the price of the main contract (SR601) of white sugar futures may continue to show a weak and volatile trend [16] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On November 5, 2025, the price of the main contract (SR601) of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar futures showed a weak and volatile trend, closing at 5441 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton or 0.86% from the previous day. The trading volume was 184,476 lots, the open interest was 367,492 lots, and the daily increase in positions was - 1330 lots. The total long positions of the Top20 members in the main contract (SR601) of white sugar futures were 250,486 lots with a long position difference of 2,705 lots, and the total short positions were 292,279 lots with a short position difference of 3,970 lots [2] - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, daily position changes and amplitudes of other contracts (SR511, SR603, SR605) are also provided [3] 3.1.3 Options Market - On this day, a total of 81,238 lots of white sugar options were traded, with 47,103 lots of call options and 34,135 lots of put options. The open interest of the variety was 306,152 lots, the open interest of call options was 194,706 lots, the open interest of put options was 111,446 lots, and the open interest PCR was 0.5724 [3] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Spot Quotation - According to Wind data, the domestic white sugar spot quotation on this day was 5,723 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from the previous observation day [7] 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The total number of registered warehouse receipts for white sugar futures on this day was 7,422, a decrease of 10 from the previous trading day [10] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 External Market Quotes - On November 4, the opening price of the main contract of ICE raw sugar was 14.65 cents/pound, the highest price was 14.72 cents/pound, the lowest price was 14.13 cents/pound, and the closing price was 14.21 cents/pound, down 0.44 cents/pound or 3.00% from the previous day. The open interest was 478,904 lots, and the daily increase in positions was 3,720 lots [11] 3.3.2 Basis Data - The white sugar basis on this day was 299 yuan/ton, and the basis continued to strengthen [14] 3.4 Market Outlook - The domestic white sugar spot price has weakened again, and the price of the main contract of ICE white sugar futures has failed to rebound and turned down. On the futures market, the price of the main contract (SR601) of white sugar futures opened low and moved lower, showing a weak and volatile trend throughout the day [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Self-powdered sugar - Report Type: Daily Report - Date: September 23, 2025 - Researcher: Chen Falin [1] 2. Core View - The domestic spot price of white sugar in Nanning warehouse continues to be weak, and the main contract of the foreign ICE raw sugar futures shows a weak trend, providing limited support for the white sugar futures price. In the short term, the price of the main white sugar futures contract (SR601) may continue to fluctuate weakly [16]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 23, 2025, the main contract of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar futures (SR601) fluctuated weakly throughout the day, closing at 5,444 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton or 0.31% from the previous day. The trading volume was 222,211 lots, and the open interest was 474,011 lots, with an increase of 17,181 lots. The total long positions of the Top20 members in the main contract (SR601) were 290,664 lots, with a long position difference of 9,326 lots, while the total short positions were 367,312 lots, with a short position difference of 17,733 lots [2]. - **Variety Prices**: Different contracts showed different price changes. SR511 rose 0.18%, SR601 fell 0.31%, SR603 fell 0.48%, and SR605 fell 0.57% [3]. - **Options Market**: The total trading volume of white sugar options was 94,954 lots, with 53,697 lots for call options and 41,257 lots for put options. The open interest was 294,905 lots, with 189,011 lots for call options and 105,894 lots for put options. The open interest PCR was 0.5603 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Quotes**: The spot price of white sugar in Nanning warehouse was 5,780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous observation day [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of registered warehouse receipts for white sugar futures was 10,022, a decrease of 293 from the previous trading day [11]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **External Market Quotes**: On September 22, the main contract of ICE raw sugar opened at 16.15 cents/pound, reached a high of 16.29 cents/pound, a low of 15.84 cents/pound, and closed at 15.85 cents/pound, down 0.29 cents/pound or 1.80% from the previous day. The open interest was 454,796 lots, with an increase of 2,782 lots [12]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of white sugar was 456 yuan/ton, showing a slight strengthening [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that both sugar futures and spot prices have risen, driven by increased sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil [1] - As of Friday's close, the white sugar futures contract 2601 settled at 5540 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase [1] - In the Guangxi Nanning region, the spot price of white sugar was 5890 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, while in Yunnan Kunming, it was 5855 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - An industry survey of 11 analysts predicts that Brazil's central-south region will crush 49.5 million tons of sugarcane in the second half of August, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [1] - Sugar production is expected to reach 3.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, while ethanol production is forecasted at 2.4 billion liters, a decrease of 2.5% [1] - Domestic forecasts indicate that 48.94 million tons of raw sugar will arrive at ports outside the quota by August 2025, with 30.43 million tons expected in September [1] Group 3 - Market analysis suggests that the acceleration of sugarcane crushing in Brazil since August has led to a significant year-on-year increase in sugar production, with a record high sugar-to-ethanol ratio [1] - Despite the pressure on raw sugar futures prices due to increased production expectations in the northern hemisphere, the ethanol market provides some support, limiting the short-term downside for raw sugar [1] - The domestic sugar market has faced poor production and sales in August, raising concerns about potential policy relaxations on syrup, leading to a weaker market trend [1]

Report Information - Report Date: June 23, 2025 [1] - Report Title: 2025 Sugar Futures Semi - annual Market Outlook - Fulfilling Weak Expectations [2] - Analyst: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z00001891 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, the price of New York raw sugar is expected to be weak, with a focus on Brazil's production and India's exports. Domestic sugar production will change little, production costs will rise slightly, and the total import volume and structure are crucial. The market will trade around the policy expectations of regular imports and substitute imports. The expected price range of Guangxi white sugar spot in the second half of 2025 is 5,600 - 6,100 yuan/ton [3][41] Content Summaries by Section 2025 H1 Sugar Futures Trend Review - The sugar futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling. From January to March, the domestic sugar market was led by New York raw sugar and futures led spot prices, with an overall upward trend. Starting from April, the New York raw sugar price dropped significantly from its high, dragging down domestic prices. From mid - May, the out - of - quota import cost fell below the spot price, suppressing the futures price. In H1 2025, the domestic market was in a positive basis state. The out - of - quota import cost fluctuated between 5,700 - 7,300 yuan/ton, the futures index between 5,700 - 6,200 yuan/ton, and the white sugar spot (Nanning) between 6,000 - 6,250 yuan/ton. The linked white sugar sales price for Guangxi sugarcane in the 24/25 crush season was 6,300 yuan/ton [6] - **First Stage (January - March 2025)**: India's unexpected production cut and low precipitation in Brazil led to a surge in New York raw sugar prices. NFCSF successively revised down India's sugar production estimates. In Q1 2025, precipitation in São Paulo, Brazil's main sugarcane - producing area, was low [9] - **Second Stage (April - June 2025)**: A sharp drop in crude oil prices and accelerated crushing in Brazil caused the New York raw sugar price to fall from its high. In April 2024, the US imposed reciprocal tariffs globally, raising recession expectations and causing a sharp drop in crude oil prices. Brazil's 25/26 crush season started, with an accelerating crushing progress and a significant increase in MIX [9] 2025 H2 Sugar Futures Outlook: Fulfilling Weak Expectations International Market: Key Focus on Brazil and India's Production - **Supply Shift from Shortage to Surplus**: The 24/25 crush season had a global sugar supply shortage, with different institutions estimating shortages ranging from 467 - 700 million tons. The 25/26 crush season is expected to have a supply surplus, with estimates of surplus ranging from 40 - 1,140 million tons [10] - **Brazil's Production Recovery**: In the 24/25 crush season, Brazil's sugar production decreased due to drought. UNICA and Conab data showed declines in cane crushing volume, MIX, and sugar production. In the 25/26 crush season, Conab expects an increase in sugar production due to a higher MIX, reaching a record high [14] - **India's Production Recovery**: In the 24/25 crush season, India's sugar production fell more than expected. NFCSF's estimates were continuously revised downwards. In the 25/26 crush season, favorable factors such as high monsoon precipitation in 2024 and rising cane purchase prices are expected to lead to a significant increase in production [18] - **Thailand's Production Increase and EU's Production Decrease**: In the 25/26 crush season, Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase due to the recovery of cane production and higher purchase prices. The EU's sugar production is expected to decline due to lower planting returns and drought, which is beneficial for widening the raw - refined sugar price spread [22][23] Domestic Market: Key Focus on Import Volume and Structure - **Production Increase but Persistent Supply Gap**: In the 24/25 crush season, China's sugar production increased, but import volume and rhythm were key factors. The control of syrup and premix imports tightened in 2025, resulting in lower - than - expected imports. In the 25/26 crush season, production is expected to remain high, and inventory accumulation is likely due to a significant drop in out - of - quota import costs [26] - **Likely Increase in Domestic Sugar Production Costs**: In the 24/25 crush season, Guangxi's sugar production cost decreased. In the 25/26 crush season, assuming the same cane purchase price, different scenarios of production rate changes are likely to lead to an increase in production costs [30] - **Low Industrial Inventory**: As of the end of May 2025, China's sugar industrial inventory was low. The cumulative sales rate was 72.69%, and the industrial inventory was 305 million tons, lower than the average level since the 15/16 crush season [33] - **Filling Method of Supply Gap Determines Pricing Anchor**: In the 24/25 crush season, the domestic sugar supply shortage was estimated at 465 million tons, and the filling method (substitutes, imports) determines the pricing anchor [37] Conclusion and Investment Outlook - **Conclusion**: Internationally, weak expectations are being fulfilled, and the New York raw sugar price is under pressure. Domestically, the total import volume and structure remain the core of trading. In the 24/25 crush season, despite increased production, low industrial inventory and strong spot prices led to a shift in the pricing anchor. In the 25/26 crush season, if imports remain the same, the supply will still be tight, and pricing will continue to be anchored to out - of - quota import costs [40] - **Investment Outlook**: In the second half of 2025, the New York raw sugar price is expected to be weak, with a focus on Brazil's production and India's exports. Domestic production will change little, production costs will rise slightly, and the total import volume and structure are crucial. The market will trade around import policy expectations, and the expected price range of Guangxi white sugar spot is 5,600 - 6,100 yuan/ton [41]