Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Self-powdered sugar - Report Type: Daily Report - Date: September 23, 2025 - Researcher: Chen Falin [1] 2. Core View - The domestic spot price of white sugar in Nanning warehouse continues to be weak, and the main contract of the foreign ICE raw sugar futures shows a weak trend, providing limited support for the white sugar futures price. In the short term, the price of the main white sugar futures contract (SR601) may continue to fluctuate weakly [16]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 23, 2025, the main contract of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar futures (SR601) fluctuated weakly throughout the day, closing at 5,444 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton or 0.31% from the previous day. The trading volume was 222,211 lots, and the open interest was 474,011 lots, with an increase of 17,181 lots. The total long positions of the Top20 members in the main contract (SR601) were 290,664 lots, with a long position difference of 9,326 lots, while the total short positions were 367,312 lots, with a short position difference of 17,733 lots [2]. - **Variety Prices**: Different contracts showed different price changes. SR511 rose 0.18%, SR601 fell 0.31%, SR603 fell 0.48%, and SR605 fell 0.57% [3]. - **Options Market**: The total trading volume of white sugar options was 94,954 lots, with 53,697 lots for call options and 41,257 lots for put options. The open interest was 294,905 lots, with 189,011 lots for call options and 105,894 lots for put options. The open interest PCR was 0.5603 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Quotes**: The spot price of white sugar in Nanning warehouse was 5,780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous observation day [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of registered warehouse receipts for white sugar futures was 10,022, a decrease of 293 from the previous trading day [11]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **External Market Quotes**: On September 22, the main contract of ICE raw sugar opened at 16.15 cents/pound, reached a high of 16.29 cents/pound, a low of 15.84 cents/pound, and closed at 15.85 cents/pound, down 0.29 cents/pound or 1.80% from the previous day. The open interest was 454,796 lots, with an increase of 2,782 lots [12]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of white sugar was 456 yuan/ton, showing a slight strengthening [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that both sugar futures and spot prices have risen, driven by increased sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil [1] - As of Friday's close, the white sugar futures contract 2601 settled at 5540 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase [1] - In the Guangxi Nanning region, the spot price of white sugar was 5890 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, while in Yunnan Kunming, it was 5855 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - An industry survey of 11 analysts predicts that Brazil's central-south region will crush 49.5 million tons of sugarcane in the second half of August, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [1] - Sugar production is expected to reach 3.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, while ethanol production is forecasted at 2.4 billion liters, a decrease of 2.5% [1] - Domestic forecasts indicate that 48.94 million tons of raw sugar will arrive at ports outside the quota by August 2025, with 30.43 million tons expected in September [1] Group 3 - Market analysis suggests that the acceleration of sugarcane crushing in Brazil since August has led to a significant year-on-year increase in sugar production, with a record high sugar-to-ethanol ratio [1] - Despite the pressure on raw sugar futures prices due to increased production expectations in the northern hemisphere, the ethanol market provides some support, limiting the short-term downside for raw sugar [1] - The domestic sugar market has faced poor production and sales in August, raising concerns about potential policy relaxations on syrup, leading to a weaker market trend [1]

2025 年 06 月 23 日 兑现弱预期 ---2025 年白糖期货半年度行情展望 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z00001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 报告导读： 2025 年下半年，我们认为纽约原糖价格偏弱运行为主，核心关注巴西产量和印度出 口。国内产量变化不大，生产成本微升，进口总量和结构是关键。市场长期围绕常规进口 以及替代品进口政策预期展开交易。2025 年下半年，预计广西白糖现货价格波动区间为 5600-6100 元/吨。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 二 〇 二 三 年 度 | 1. 2025 年上半年白糖期货走势回顾 3 | | --- | | 2. 2025 年下半年白糖期货展望：兑现弱预期 4 | | 2.1 国际市场交易的焦点是巴西和印度产量 4 | | 2.1.1 国际市场由供应短缺转为供应过剩 4 | | 2.1.2 巴西产量恢复性增长 4 | | 2.1.3 印度产量恢复性增长 5 | | 2.1.4 泰国增产、欧盟减产 6 | | 2.2 国内市 ...