宏观经济点评 2025 年 07 月 31 日 美联储内部分歧加大，降息或尚需时日 宏观研究团队 ——7 月 FOMC 会议点评 hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 何宁（分析师） 潘纬桢（分析师） panweizhen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790122110044 事件：美联储于北京时间 7 月 31 日凌晨 2 点发布 7 月 FOMC 会议声明，宣布保 持利率水平不变。 声明及发布会要点 1. 美联储在此次会议上宣布维持利率水平在 4.25%-4.5%区间。缩表方面，将继 续按照 3 月 FOMC 会议上的原定计划执行。 2. 再次维持利率水平不变，认为经济不确定性仍高，出现 2 张反对票。在声明 中，美联储的措辞同 6 月份相比略有变化，认为虽然净出口的波动影响了经济数 据，但上半年美国经济活动增长有所放缓。就业与通胀方面，与 6 月表述基本相 同。但美联储认为美国经济前景的不确定性依旧高涨。此外，本次会议中出现两 票反对，鲍曼以及沃勒认为本次会议中应该降息 25bp，与其前期表态一致，但 凸显出美联储内部的分歧进一步显性化。 3. 发布会上，鲍威尔表态 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy remains robust, with expectations of only one interest rate cut within the year due to stable unemployment and resilient corporate earnings [1] Economic Policy - U.S. fiscal policy continues to be accommodative, with the passage of Trump's "beautiful big plan" expected to contribute up to 1 percentage point to economic growth in its first year, although the marginal effect will gradually decrease [1] Labor Market - The unemployment rate remains stable, and real wages continue to grow, indicating a strong labor market [1] Corporate Performance - Corporate earnings are showing resilience, contributing to the overall stability of the U.S. economy [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - Unless there is a significant shock to the labor market or renewed concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, it is anticipated that the Fed will maintain a wait-and-see approach, with a potential interest rate cut later in the year [1] Inflation and Growth Balance - Future policy direction will largely depend on the balance between inflation and growth [1]

美国财长贝森特：美国经济最火热，并已为加速增长创造条件。 ...

美国财长贝森特：美国经济重拾信心和动能。 基本面和总统特朗普的那些政策都"让人难以置信"。 ...

美国财长贝森特表示，美国经济重拾信心和动能。 ...

美国财长贝森特：美国经济正在恢复信心和动力。 ...

Core Insights - The chief economist of ADP, Nela Richardson, indicates that hiring and compensation data generally suggest that the U.S. economy is in a healthy state [1] Group 1 - The hiring data reflects positive trends in the labor market, indicating robust economic activity [1] - Compensation trends are also aligned with a healthy economic outlook, suggesting that businesses are willing to invest in talent [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. economy showed resilience in the second quarter, with GDP growth rebounding from -0.5% to 3%, surpassing expectations of 2.4% [2] - The ADP employment figures for July also improved significantly, rising from a previous loss of 23,000 jobs to a gain of 104,000 jobs, indicating a strong recovery in the job market [2] - Despite the positive data, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the sustainability of this economic recovery, with potential risks from various factors including trade policies and high federal interest rates [2] Group 2 - The article expresses skepticism about the longevity of the economic rebound, suggesting that the greater risk may be an accelerated economic downturn rather than inflation concerns [2] - The U.S. economy faces significant negative pressures, including high fiscal deficits and increasing debt levels, which could undermine recovery efforts [2] - The possibility of "black swan" events negatively impacting the U.S. economy is acknowledged, adding to the cautious outlook on future economic performance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is in a relatively strong condition according to Treasury Secretary Becerra [1] Economic Condition - The current state of the U.S. economy is described as "quite good" by the Treasury Secretary [1] - There are positive indicators suggesting resilience and stability in economic performance [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. economy** and **U.S. Treasury market** analysis, with a focus on macroeconomic indicators and fiscal policies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Macroeconomic Shifts**: The global macro trading narrative in 2025 has shifted multiple times, influenced by factors such as Trump's policies and trade disputes, with a need to monitor the potential reversal risks associated with "Taco trading" [1][5][6]. 2. **Impact of Trump's Policies**: The passage of the "Big Beautiful Plan" has enhanced Trump's negotiation flexibility, particularly as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches, which could influence market dynamics [1][8]. 3. **Consumer Spending as Economic Indicator**: Personal consumption accounts for over 60% of U.S. GDP, making it a critical focus for assessing economic trends through retail sales and consumer confidence indices [1][12][16]. 4. **Real Estate Market Challenges**: The U.S. real estate market is currently facing high interest rates and reduced housing demand, with new and existing home sales being key indicators to monitor [1][24][25]. 5. **Federal Reserve's Role**: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is primarily driven by inflation and employment factors, with potential interest rate cuts expected in response to labor market weaknesses [3][9][44]. 6. **Treasury Market Dynamics**: The U.S. Treasury market serves as a global asset pricing anchor, with significant portions held by international investors, impacting global interest rates and capital flows [10][11][38]. 7. **Trade Policy Implications**: Trump's trade policies are a significant variable in macro trading for 2025, with the U.S. experiencing trade deficits while maintaining a surplus in services [26]. 8. **Labor Market Resilience**: The labor market shows signs of resilience, with non-farm employment data and unemployment rates being crucial metrics for understanding economic health [27][28]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Consumer Confidence and Retail Data**: Retail sales and consumer confidence indices are vital for gauging economic performance, with soft data sometimes conflicting with hard data [20][21]. 2. **Inflation Indicators**: Recent increases in core consumer prices suggest that tariff policies may be influencing inflation, which could affect future Federal Reserve decisions [33][34]. 3. **Market Reactions to Economic Data**: The relationship between stock and bond markets indicates that rising yields can negatively impact equity valuations, highlighting the interconnectedness of asset classes [14]. 4. **Federal Budget Concerns**: The U.S. fiscal budget process is complex, with recent spending levels raising concerns about fiscal sustainability, particularly with the "Big Beautiful Plan" increasing the deficit ceiling [36]. 5. **Investment Strategies in Treasury Market**: Current strategies suggest a focus on short-term Treasury securities due to anticipated interest rate cuts, while long-term securities face greater uncertainty due to inflation risks [47].