阅读本文前，诚邀您点击"关注"按钮，方便今后持续收到类似内容的推送，同时也便于您参与讨论与分享。您的支持是我们不断创作的最大动力~ 上周一，国际权威评级机构惠誉突然宣布将美国的信用评级由"AAA"下调至"AA "，这一消息一经传出，立刻在全球金融市场掀起轩然大波。美国长期以来 被视为世界上最强大、最稳定的经济体之一，这次评级的调整无疑让许多人产生了疑问和担忧。 那么，为什么惠誉会选择在此时降低美国的信用评级？美国信用降级又将带来哪些深远影响？美国政府对此又持何态度？接下来我们一一剖析。 美国被降级——虽意外但又合情合理 事实上，国际社会对美国此次信用评级被下调持一种"欧·亨利式结尾"的看法，虽然略显出乎意料，但从经济形势和历史脉络来看，却也在情理之中。 之所以称惠誉的这次行动有些意外，是因为上一家曾下调美国评级的机构曾遭遇强烈反弹。2011年8月，标准普尔首次将美国长期稳居"AAA"评级的主权债 务降至"AA "，这引发轩然大波。随后，美国司法部对标准普尔展开调查，时任总裁夏尔马被迫辞职。经过将近四年的法律纷争，标准普尔最终被判支付14 亿美元罚金。 要知道，标准普尔本身就是美国本土的权威评级机构，而惠誉作为 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government debt is projected to exceed $50 trillion within seven years due to the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" act and ongoing expansionary fiscal policies [1][3] - The current national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, marking a historical high, with the "Big and Beautiful" act expected to increase the fiscal deficit by approximately $3.3 trillion over the next decade [3] - The act includes significant tax cuts, such as reducing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% permanently and raising the state and local tax deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000, which will result in over $4.5 trillion in spending costs over the next ten years [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury may run out of "extraordinary measures" to address the debt ceiling issue by mid-August, with a projected $1 trillion increase in Treasury bond supply expected in the second half of 2025 [4] - The International Monetary Fund warns that the act will significantly worsen the fiscal deficit, potentially raising the debt-to-GDP ratio to around 120%, far exceeding international warning levels [4] - The act's tax cuts primarily benefit high-income households, particularly those earning between $200,000 and $500,000, while drastically cutting healthcare coverage for low-income individuals, with an estimated 17 million Americans losing insurance [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll report is interpreted as a strong signal that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in July, leading to a rise in the dollar index after four consecutive days of decline [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. inflation rate for May is reported at 2.3%, down from 6.8% three years ago, while the unemployment rate for June stands at 4.1%, up from 3.5% three years ago, indicating increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve [2] - The U.S. GDP growth rate recorded a negative value of -0.5% in Q1 2025, a significant drop from previous values of 2.4% and 3.1%, suggesting a decline in economic vitality [3] Federal Reserve's Policy Considerations - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is influenced by concerns over tariffs and their potential impact on inflation, as well as the need to avoid financing fiscal deficits through monetary policy [4] - The current U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, with about one-quarter of fiscal revenue allocated to interest payments, prompting the White House to advocate for interest rate cuts to reduce debt servicing costs [3] Political Pressures - The White House expresses dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged, with President Trump publicly calling for further rate cuts [3] - Potential successors to Fed Chair Powell, such as current Fed Governor Waller and Treasury Secretary Basant, have shown support for quicker rate cuts, indicating internal pressure within the Federal Reserve [4]

英国央行行长贝利：认为投资者并不担心英国债务规模的可持续性。 ...

投资者正在加速抛售美国长期债券基金，促使此类基金出现自五年前新冠疫情高峰以来最大规模的资金流出。 据媒体26日根据EPFR数据计算，今年第二季度，涵盖政府和企业债券的美国长期债券基金已出现近110亿美元的净流出。 这一数字不仅打破了过去12个季度平均约200亿美元的资金流入趋势，更预示着本季度的资金撤离规模有望追平甚至超越2020年初市场剧烈动荡时 的水平。 通胀敏感性与短期债券受青睐 投资者的避险情绪已直接反映在美国长期国债的价格表现上。本季度，长期美国国债价格已下跌约1%，尽管在特朗普4月份宣布关税引发市场恐 慌后曾一度出现更大幅度的损失，目前有所回升，但整体表现依然疲软。周四，美国30年期国债收益率下跌2.6bp，至4.816%。 此次大规模赎回正值市场对美国财政前景日益不安之际。尽管基金流量仅是庞大美国债券市场的一小部分，但它被视为衡量投资者情绪的关键风 向标。DoubleLine的Bill Campbell认为，资金流向是"一个更大问题的症状"，并表示"国内外投资者普遍对持有长期美国国债收益率曲线的末端感 到担忧"。 担忧美国财政状况，长期债券吸引力下降 美国庞大的债务规模是引发投资者不安的核心因素 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warns that the bond market faces a risk of "collapse" if the U.S. government fails to control the growing federal deficit, sparking widespread discussion and varied reactions [1] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - Dimon's comments reflect the sentiment on Wall Street during a period of significant turmoil in the bond market, with long-term bond yields rising above 5% in late May, nearing the highest levels since 2007, indicating investor concerns over holding these securities amid increasing budget deficits [2] - Despite a successful auction of 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds on June 12, concerns remain about the demand for long-term bonds from other countries, as rising yields are attributed to a slowing U.S. economy and persistent inflation above expectations [5] - The volatility in long-term bond yields is more pronounced compared to short-term bonds, as long-term bonds typically offer higher interest rates due to their longer repayment periods, leading to increased investor anxiety regarding U.S. Treasury securities [5] Group 2: Global Debt Concerns - The global debt level has reached alarming heights, with the International Institute of Finance (IIF) projecting a record $324 trillion in global debt by Q1 2025, driven by borrowing from countries like China, France, and Germany [6] - Rising inflation and interest rates make it increasingly difficult to sustain such high levels of borrowing, with concerns that continued high bond yields and poor fiscal management could lead to unmanageable debt repayment costs [6][7] - Moody's downgraded the last highest credit rating for the U.S. due to fears that the expanding debt and deficit could undermine the country's status as a primary destination for global capital [7] Group 3: Future Uncertainties - The impact of high borrowing costs on long-term bonds issued during a period of ultra-low interest rates remains uncertain, with rising yields causing unpredictable consequences in the bond market [8] - The ongoing inflation post-pandemic and potential trade policies could further exacerbate inflationary pressures, leading to higher bond yields, while also risking economic activity and complicating monetary policy decisions for the Federal Reserve [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that investors should remain cautious despite the recent market rebound due to Trump's suspension of tariffs, as the unpredictability of his policies poses risks [1][3]. - Howard Marks emphasizes that the current high market valuations require a careful approach, as global asset prices are at or near historical highs, making it difficult to find "cheap" assets [3][5]. - Marks notes that while the market is expensive, it has not yet shown signs of "psychological excesses," indicating that it may not have entered a phase of irrational exuberance [3]. Group 2 - The ongoing increase in U.S. debt is creating significant uncertainty in the market, which Marks identifies as a structural risk [4][5]. - Marks admits that predicting the timing of a potential crisis triggered by debt issues is challenging, reinforcing the message that managing downside risk is more critical than trying to forecast the next market trend [5].

Group 1 - The geopolitical risks have eased somewhat due to the resumption of US-China trade talks and a temporary ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, but ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and military confrontations in the Middle East continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates, and Powell indicated that there is still a lot of uncertainty, which has cooled expectations for a rate cut in June, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index that has somewhat suppressed the attractiveness of gold priced in dollars [2] - The US national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, and Trump's tariff policies may push core inflation to 3%, which supports gold's anti-inflation properties and keeps long-term funds interested in gold, providing support for gold prices in the Asian market [2] Group 2 - The spot gold price opened at $3366.20 per ounce in the Asian market, initially rising to a high of $3414.79 before a significant drop to a low of $3320.35, indicating weakened bullish momentum [5] - On the hourly chart, gold has broken below the recent trading range, indicating a bearish direction, with strong downward momentum observed on the 15-minute chart suggesting potential for new lows [5] - The trading strategy for today suggests short positions on rallies with a take-profit target at $3310.00 and a stop-loss based on the 15-minute moving average [5] Group 3 - Silver opened at $32.365, showing a similar pattern of initial gains followed by a decline, with only short-term trading opportunities available on the 5-minute chart [7] - The price has fallen below the 20-period moving average, indicating further weakening of bullish momentum and a bearish outlook [7] - The trading strategy for silver suggests short positions on rallies with a stop-loss based on the moving average and a take-profit target at $32.000 [7]