此外，以历史标准衡量，美国政府的支出规模相当庞大，且在不断增长。2026年，支出总额占GDP的 23.3%，同样超过近50年来的平均水平。 美国国会预算办公室主任菲利普·斯瓦格尔称，这种持续的巨额赤字在历史上"极不寻常"。分析指出， 净利息成本上升是赤字增长的主要原因。 该机构还预测，从2026年到2036年，不断增长的赤字将导致债务增加。公众持有的联邦债务占GDP的比 重将从今年的101%上升到2036年的120%，超过1946年二战后创下的106%的历史最高纪录。 中新网2月12日电 美国国会预算办公室当地时间11日发布预测，美国2026财年预算赤字将为约1.9万亿美 元，到2036年将增至3.1万亿美元，二者占美国国内生产总值(GDP)的比重将分别达到5.8%与6.7%，均 高于过去50年赤字占比重3.8%的平均水平。 路透社指出，该比例远高于美国财政部长贝森特此前提出的，将财政赤字削减至GDP的3%的目标。这 表明在经济增长低迷的情况下，美政府的经济政策正令美国财政状况恶化。 "美国的财政状况日益恶化。"华盛顿智库"两党政策中心"经济政策主任乔纳森·伯克斯表示，"我们的债 务规模如今已相当于GDP的1 ...

共同社报道，日本债务规模已超其经济总量的两倍。由于社会保障、防务及债务偿还成本不断膨胀，日 本债务规模面临上行压力。此外，日本首相高市早苗承诺扩大支出，令该国财政前景雪上加霜。 报道说，随着市场普遍预期日本央行将继续加息，长期借贷成本将呈上升趋势。一旦利率上升，国债利 息支出会大幅增加，令日本政府财政状况恶化。（完）（卜晓明） 【新华社微特稿】日本财务省10日公布的数据显示，截至2025年底，日本国债、借款及政府短期证券合 计的国家债务达1342.17万亿日元（约合8.77万亿美元），较2024年底增加24.54万亿日元（1602.6亿美 元），创历史新高。 日本债务2013年突破1000万亿日元关口，此后持续攀升。财务省预计，到今年3月底，日本债务总额将 达到1473.5万亿日元（9.6万亿美元）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's Q2 FY2026 performance fell short of analyst expectations, with total revenue of $16.1 billion and cloud revenue of $8 billion, both below forecasts [1] Financial Performance - Q2 remaining performance obligations increased by 438% year-over-year to $523 billion [1] - Q2 capital expenditures were $12 billion, with an expected total capital expenditure of approximately $50 billion for FY2026, an increase of about $15 billion from previous estimates [1] Debt Situation - Oracle has accumulated significant debt, recently issuing approximately $18 billion in new bonds, with total outstanding debt exceeding $100 billion, making it the largest in debt among investment-grade tech companies [1] Future Outlook - Oracle anticipates Q3 revenue growth of 19% to 21%, with cloud business growth projected at 40% to 44%, and reaffirms annual revenue target of $67 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current fiscal and tax system in China faces significant challenges, necessitating deeper structural reforms to enhance public service provision and promote social equity [1] Group 1: Challenges in the Fiscal System - The total growth of fiscal revenue is slowing, with the projected national general public budget revenue for 2024 at 22 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of only 1.3% [1] - The proportion of indirect taxes, such as value-added tax and consumption tax, is high, while the share of direct taxes is low, indicating a need for further optimization of the tax structure [1] - The low proportion of personal income tax revenue compared to the high proportion of corporate income tax revenue is unfavorable for improving income distribution and boosting consumption [1] Group 2: Recommendations for Reform - Enhance tax capacity by maintaining an appropriate tax-to-GDP ratio, expanding the tax base while keeping tax rates reasonable, and increasing public awareness of tax obligations [2] - Centralize social security coordination, clarify the fiscal responsibilities between central and local governments, and consider establishing "public service personal accounts" for direct access to services [2] - Expand the scale of government debt and increase the deficit ratio, issuing more national bonds to develop a comprehensive national bond yield curve and stimulate the financial market [2] - Align fiscal reforms with other structural reforms, including land property rights and household registration system reforms [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. economy showed resilience in the second quarter, with GDP growth rebounding from -0.5% to 3%, surpassing expectations of 2.4% [2] - The ADP employment figures for July also improved significantly, rising from a previous loss of 23,000 jobs to a gain of 104,000 jobs, indicating a strong recovery in the job market [2] - Despite the positive data, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the sustainability of this economic recovery, with potential risks from various factors including trade policies and high federal interest rates [2] Group 2 - The article expresses skepticism about the longevity of the economic rebound, suggesting that the greater risk may be an accelerated economic downturn rather than inflation concerns [2] - The U.S. economy faces significant negative pressures, including high fiscal deficits and increasing debt levels, which could undermine recovery efforts [2] - The possibility of "black swan" events negatively impacting the U.S. economy is acknowledged, adding to the cautious outlook on future economic performance [2]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings unexpectedly downgraded the U.S. credit rating from "AAA" to "AA", raising concerns in global financial markets about the stability of the U.S. economy and its long-term fiscal health [1][10]. Economic Factors - The downgrade is attributed to the rising fiscal deficit and national debt, which have exceeded the country's GDP, posing significant challenges to the stability and debt repayment capacity of the U.S. government [5][12]. - Political polarization and policy uncertainty have further complicated economic management, hindering coherent economic policies and potentially exacerbating fiscal deficits [6][10]. Global Economic Context - Global economic volatility, including trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war, poses additional risks to the U.S. economy and fiscal situation [8][10]. Market Reactions - Following the downgrade, U.S. stock markets experienced significant declines, and there was a notable lack of interest in a recent issuance of over $90 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating waning investor confidence [12][14]. - Countries, particularly China, have begun to sell off U.S. Treasury bonds, which could increase borrowing costs for the U.S. government and signal a shift in global investment strategies [17][21].