Investors are betting the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates today for the third time this year, though there could be division within the central bank over the decision. "The decision will not be unanimous and is likely to feature dissents in both a hawkish and dovish direction," Deutsche Bank chief US economist Matt Luzzetti said. Where there might be more consensus: on signals that most of the rate cuts are finished — for now. Today's decision could draw dissents on both sides from one to as m ...

Market Sentiment - The markets are experiencing jitters ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, with a mixed performance observed in stocks [1][4] - The VIX index has seen a significant drop from 15.28 to 7.43, indicating increased market volatility [2] - The 10-year yield has risen to 4.2%, suggesting that investors are anticipating a hawkish stance from Jerome Powell [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding whether Jerome Powell will implement a hawkish cut or focus on inflation and labor market concerns [3][4] - A potential reversal in market sentiment could occur if Powell shifts his tone towards a more dovish approach [4] Fed Chair Speculation - Kevin Hassett is currently viewed as the likely candidate for the next Fed chair, although Kevin Warsh's name is also being discussed due to his innovative views on interest rates [5][6] - Warsh has expressed that inflation is a choice and believes that AI will have a deflationary effect on the economy [7][8] Mortgage Market Insights - Recent data shows that mortgage applications increased by 4.8%, driven by a 14.3% rise in refinances, while purchase applications fell by 2.4% [9][10] - The increase in refinances is attributed to a drop in FHA mortgage rates, highlighting the sensitivity of the mortgage market to interest rate changes [10]

Equity markets are still twiddling their proverbial thumbs ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision, due out later today. Silver is extending its breakout above $60, crude oil is rising a bit, but gold is easing back. The dollar and Treasuries are flattish. To get more articles and chart analysis from MoneyShow, subscribe to our Top Pros’ Top Picks newsletter here.) Two developments are in Wall Street’s crosshairs today. One is the Fed meeting, where policymakers are expected to cut i ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, but there will be significant dissent regarding the adequacy of a 25 basis point cut, with some arguing it is insufficient given ongoing inflation concerns [2][4] - Current inflation remains above the 2% target, and there are worries about the labor market not showing strong declines, indicating a mixed economic outlook [3][9] Fed Independence and Diverging Opinions - There are concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with varying opinions among officials on the appropriate course of action regarding interest rates [4][6] - Divergent views on the economy lead to uncertainty, with some officials advocating for a more aggressive rate cut while others oppose any cuts [6][7] Inflation and Labor Market Dynamics - The last inflation reading showed a decline, but there are fears that higher inflation could return due to tariffs affecting consumers and businesses [8][10] - Wage growth has increased from an average of 1.5% before the pandemic to 2-3% now, influenced by the retirement of baby boomers, which may contribute to persistent inflationary pressures [11]

And Hasset was on earlier this week, Kevin, >> he understands all this >> and he said we're going to wage increases since in and I think he was implying since inflation never goes negative. So we're locked in. Those Biden increases of 22%.Those are those are locked in. Prices are going to stay higher. >> So we need to grow out of it in terms of income levels to feel like you can afford.>> This is why everyone fears inflation because the effects of of a jump in inflation, >> they never go away. >> They never ...

It's Rick Santelli. What are the numbers. >> The numbers are our third quarter employment cost index up 8/10en of a percent.That's a smidge lighter than the 9/10 we're expecting. And the last three quarters have been 9/10 from the last quarter 24 the first second quarter this year. And as I said, this is the third quarter.And that would be the lightest going back to wow you have to go back a ways to the second quarter of 2021. It equaled it equal where we were in the third quarter of last year. So it has be ...

Core Viewpoint - The consensus expectation is for a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with a shallower path anticipated into the first half of 2026, coinciding with the end of Powell's term as chair [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Expectations - The market is currently anticipating a more dovish pivot, but this is not reflected in market behavior, indicating a complex dynamic [10][11]. - There is a possibility of dissent within the Federal Reserve, with expectations of multiple dissenting opinions regarding the rate cut decision [3][4][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Current data suggests weakness in the job market, which complicates the Fed's decision-making process [6][7]. - Inflation affecting Americans, particularly in utility and food costs, is largely beyond the Fed's control, leading to a decline in discretionary spending [8][9]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Communication - The tone and approach of Jay Powell during the press conference will be crucial, as he may deviate from the committee's script to express his own views [12][13].

Core Insights - The share of small businesses raising their selling prices reached an all-time high in November, driven by ongoing inflationary pressures [1][2] - The net percentage of small business owners reporting price increases rose to 34%, the highest since March 2023, significantly above the monthly average of 13% [2] - Inflation remains a critical issue for small businesses, ranking second in importance after labor quality concerns [5][8] Inflation Impact - Year-over-year price growth is approximately 3%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [2] - Inflation concerns among small business owners increased by 3 points, indicating a growing significance of this issue [5] - In November 2024, inflation was cited as the most important problem by 20% of small business owners, narrowly surpassing labor quality at 19% [8] Business Optimism and Sales Expectations - The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose by 0.8 points to 99, remaining above the 52-year average of 98, with six of the ten components increasing [11] - A net 30% of small businesses plan to increase prices in the next three months, reflecting confidence in sales growth [8] - The net percentage of owners expecting higher real sales volumes increased by 9 points from October to 15% [13] Profitability Factors - Among small business owners reporting higher profits, 51% attributed this to increased sales volume, while 18% cited seasonal changes and 12% pointed to higher selling prices [8] - For those reporting lower profits, 27% blamed weaker sales, 16% cited rising material costs, and 12% mentioned labor costs [11]

Fed is more worried about jobs than inflation ...

Joining us now is Jay Clayton. He is the US attorney for the Southern District of New York and a former chairman of the SEC. I'd like to be able to take the president aside and just explain how to explain it because prices in certain sectors are coming down like energy and he's right about that and that could be that that could filter into other parts of the economy and cause inflation which is really never zero or lower.It can be but that's not good. >> That would be bad. >> That would be bad. That would b ...