Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The market anticipates potential rate cuts, contingent on controlled inflation and a weakening labor market [2] - Recent data indicates a meaningful slowdown in growth and a stalling labor market [3] - Former President Trump advocated for rate cuts to strengthen America's credit rating and reduce the cost of US debt, linking monetary policy to Treasury debt management [3][4] Economic Outlook - The state of the economy and the accuracy of data are major discussion points at the Aspen Economic Strategy Group forum [1]

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Economic Uncertainty & Recession Risks - Uncertainty, stemming from policy, geopolitical factors, and President Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve, poses a significant threat to US economic growth [1][2] - Recession risks are higher than average, though not overwhelming, as the US consumer remains resilient [7][9] - Corporate investment is hindered by uncertainty, impacting medium to longer-term plans [5] Monetary Policy & Inflation - It's difficult to argue for lower interest rates currently due to uncertainty about future inflation [11] - There are no overwhelming signs of weakening economic activity that would call for monetary policy stimulus [12] - The pass-through of tariffs into higher prices has been modest so far, but it's still early stages [11] Immigration & Demographics - Slower population growth due to immigration shocks negatively impacts medium-term potential output [8][9] - Aging populations and declining birth rates in the US and other advanced economies impact potential growth [14] - Immigration has historically contributed to trend growth in the US economy [8][14] Debt & Fiscal Policy - The US budget bill is estimated to add at least $3 trillion to the deficit over the next 9 to 10 years [15] - High debt levels and debt servicing costs are a concern, potentially hindering more productive investments [17][18] Globalization & Trade - Globalization has been off its peak since the global financial crisis [20] - While globalization has benefited consumers through cheaper products, it has also led to a hollowing out of various sectors in the US [20][22] - Increased global cooperation is preferred over a fragmented system [22] Global Debt Crisis - The unfolding debt crisis in low-income countries is something to watch, as it could amplify to emerging markets with bigger footprints [24][25]

The Dow, S&P, and the NASDAQ all about 2% from their highs. Savvita Subramanyan is the head of US equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America securities and she joins us live this morning. Sevita, you were looking for a price target not much higher than where stocks are right here for the end of the year.But you do say there's upside risk to that. I do think so. I mean, look, I we're at a point that is frustrating because sentiment is not necessarily bearish or bullish based on all the things we loo ...

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data does more than capture monthly job growth and inflation pressures. It plays a crucial role in Americans’ financial lives. https://t.co/1gSTEUwJjl ...

Joining me right now at the Aspen Economic Strategy Group Forum, Neil Cash Carry is here. He's the president of course of the Minneapolis Fed. And there is so much to talk to you about.I don't even know uh where you want to start. Um but maybe we'd start with what's actually just happening even inside the Fed because there's a new opening and then there's all the talks about the Kevin and what that means. And I'm curious as somebody who's who's on that board what it feels like.Uh it's uncertain. I mean ther ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has adjusted its full-year inflation assumption from 4% to 4.5% due to adverse weather conditions affecting crop yields, particularly in the UK [24][25] - The gross margin dropped in Q2, attributed to increased inflation and supply chain challenges [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a significant focus on cost competitiveness, leading to a reduction in SG&A expenses primarily driven by overheads rather than advertising and promotion [30][31] - Innovations and renovations are expected to contribute nearly double the sales compared to the previous year, with a focus on snacking and protein products [32][34] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market in Q2 experienced a volume decline of approximately 5.5%, particularly in key regions like the UK, due to extreme weather conditions [16][22] - The company has gained market share in volume despite overall market underperformance in categories like fish and vegetables [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is adjusting its ERP implementation strategy to mitigate risks and improve inventory management [7][8] - There is a strong emphasis on innovation, with plans to enhance product offerings in response to changing consumer preferences and weather patterns [34][35] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate current challenges and emphasized the importance of preparing for future weather-related impacts on sales [50][53] - The company is committed to maintaining flexibility in capital allocation, focusing on share buybacks and dividends while being cautious about M&A opportunities [55] Other Important Information - The company is exploring partnerships with startups to enhance its innovation pipeline and speed up product development [43][45] - There is a focus on optimizing the supply chain and reducing complexity within the operational network to improve cost efficiency [40][41] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confidence in full-year guidance - Management acknowledged past challenges with guidance and emphasized lessons learned from ERP implementation and inventory management [6][8] Question: Organic growth expectations for Q3 - Management indicated that while growth is expected in Q3, it is contingent on market conditions and weather patterns [17][19] Question: Inflationary pressures and pricing strategy - Management confirmed an increase in inflation assumptions and indicated plans to adjust pricing where feasible [24][26] Question: SG&A savings initiatives - Management detailed ongoing efforts to reduce overhead costs and improve cost competitiveness [30][31] Question: Innovation pipeline and future products - Management highlighted a significant increase in sales from innovation and renovation, with a focus on snacking and protein products [32][34] Question: Supply chain optimization and facility closures - Management discussed plans for supply chain optimization, including the closure of a smaller factory in the Nordics [40][41] Question: Long-term portfolio adjustments for climate change - Management addressed the need to adapt product offerings to changing weather patterns and consumer preferences [50][53] Question: Capital allocation priorities - Management confirmed ongoing share buybacks and dividends while maintaining flexibility for future opportunities [55]

Economic Slowdown & Inflation - The economy is slowing, with housing services inflation gently declining, non-housing services inflation coming down, and wage growth decreasing [3][4] - Consumer spending is cooling, further suggesting a slowdown in the real underlying economy [4] - The ultimate effects of tariffs on inflation are uncertain and may not be known for quarters or a year or more [4] - The average effective tariff being paid at the border is around 10%, climbing month after month, but still short of the 16% headline rate [6] - It is uncertain how high core goods inflation will get and whether it will spill over into other categories and be persistent [11] Monetary Policy - It may become appropriate to start adjusting the federal funds rate in the near term due to the slowing economy [5] - Two rate cuts this year still seem reasonable, but the actual number could vary depending on the effect of tariffs on inflation [13][14] - If tariffs have a bigger effect on inflation, the Fed could do one or more rate cuts and then pause, or even raise rates again [14] - The FOMC is aware of the potential need to adjust course (cut and then raise rates) due to the uncertain effects of tariffs [17][18] Data & Credibility - The BLS data is subject to revisions and declining survey response rates, requiring the Fed to look at other data sources [21][22] - There are concerns about the credibility of economic data following the firing of the head of the BLS, but it is difficult to fake economic reality [25][28] - Wage growth is declining, indicating a cooling labor market [22] Tariffs Impact - Companies have not taken up prices in the way they did during the pandemic, possibly due to the complexities of tariffs compared to the pandemic [7][8] - Some companies hoarded inventory to protect themselves and their customers from tariffs [9][16] - The market is discounting that the tariffs, at least as we know them today, stay that way [12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has adjusted its full-year inflation assumption from 4% to 4.5% due to adverse weather conditions affecting crop yields, particularly in the UK [23][24] - There has been a noted drop in gross margin in Q2, attributed to increased inflation and weather-related challenges [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has seen a significant increase in innovation contributions to sales, with expectations for nearly double the previous year's contribution [32][34] - SG&A expenses have been reduced, primarily driven by overhead savings rather than advertising and promotion [30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market in Q2 experienced a volume decline of approximately 5.5%, particularly in key regions like the UK, which impacted sales [15][21] - The company has gained market share in volume despite overall market underperformance during the hot weather [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing its product assortment to better align with changing consumer preferences during hotter weather, including more natural and marinated fish options [51][54] - There is an emphasis on cost competitiveness and maintaining pricing strategies to recover from inflation while avoiding overpricing compared to competitors [30][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's future despite disappointing first-half performance, citing a strong portfolio and effective strategy [60] - The company is preparing for potential future heat waves by adjusting product offerings and improving supply chain agility [54][51] Other Important Information - The company has conducted share buybacks amounting to €100 million in H1 and announced a dividend, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [56] - The company is exploring partnerships with startups to enhance innovation and speed up product development [44][46] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confidence in full-year guidance after recent performance - Management acknowledged past optimism regarding ERP implementation and excess inventory issues, indicating a more cautious approach moving forward [5][6][8] Question: Organic growth expectations for Q3 and Q4 - Management clarified that while growth is expected in Q3, the overall guidance remains conservative due to market conditions [14][16] Question: Impact of ERP supply disruption on sales - Management confirmed that the ERP lag from the previous year will positively affect comparisons, but current market conditions remain challenging [19][20] Question: Inflationary pressures and pricing strategies for 2026 - Management indicated that pricing adjustments will be necessary to recover from inflation, with a focus on maintaining competitiveness [22][26] Question: SG&A savings and overhead expense reductions - Management detailed ongoing initiatives to reduce overhead costs while remaining competitive in pricing [30][31] Question: Innovation pipeline and future products - Management highlighted a significant increase in sales from innovation and renovation, with a focus on snacking and new product categories [32][34] Question: Supply chain optimization and facility closures - Management discussed plans for supply chain optimization, including the closure of a smaller factory in the Nordics [41][42] Question: Long-term strategies for dealing with climate change - Management emphasized the need for agility in product offerings to adapt to changing weather patterns and consumer preferences [49][54] Question: Capital allocation priorities - Management confirmed ongoing share buybacks and dividends while maintaining flexibility for future opportunities [56][57]

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