Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests going long on oils and fats as the bullish drivers are temporarily hard to disprove [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the spot and futures prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as relevant market data and news, suggesting a long - position in the oils and fats market due to non - falsifiable bullish drivers [1][2] Group 3: Summary Based on Different Data Spot Price - On August 13, 2025, the spot prices of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 9520, 9450, and 9380 respectively, with a daily increase of 120 [1] - The spot prices of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8720, 8840, and 8820 respectively, with a daily increase of 170 [1] - The spot prices of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 10260, 10310, and 10520 respectively, with a daily increase of 500 [1] Futures Data - On August 13, 2025, the spread between soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 848, up 38 from the previous day; the spread between rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1488, up 162 [1] - The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 1420, unchanged; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 22170, an increase of 216; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3487, unchanged [1] Market News - The Ministry of Commerce preliminarily ruled that imported Canadian rapeseed was dumped. From August 14, 2025, importers need to pay a 75.8% deposit on Canadian companies [2] - Affected by the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the domestic long - term rapeseed procurement progress is slow. The imported rapeseed arrival volume in August is expected to be about 200,000 tons, and the average monthly arrival volume from September to October is about 130,000 tons [2] - Bloomberg's July MPOB forecast: Palm oil production increased 8.3% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, imports were 50,000 tons, exports increased 3.2% to 1.3 million tons, local consumption was 250,000 - 450,000 tons, and inventory increased 10% to 2.23 million tons [2] - From August 1 - 5, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased 19.32% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased 17.27% month - on - month [2] - From August 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased 23.3% and 23.7% respectively compared with the same period last month according to ITS and AmSpec [2] - The USDA report adjusted the new - crop soybean yield per acre from 52.5 bushels/acre to a record high of 53.6 bushels/acre but unexpectedly reduced the 2025/26 US soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, resulting in a 43 million - bushel reduction in production to 4.292 billion bushels [2] - The US soybean and corn good - to - excellent rates as of August 10 were 68% and 72% respectively, in line with market expectations [2]

据浙商期货油脂油料分析师王璐介绍，加拿大作为我国菜系产品的主要进口来源国，分别占国内进口菜 籽、菜粕总量的90%和70%以上。此次反倾销调查初裁"落地"，后续加拿大油菜籽的到港成本将抬升， 恐影响国内菜粕及菜油供应。"其中，菜油端因近年来自俄罗斯等地的进口量有所提升，加之国内豆油 供应的支撑，预计其后续供应紧张程度将弱于菜粕。" 王璐说。 "事实上，我国自2024年9月启动对加拿大油菜籽反倾销调查以来，国内菜籽进口量已显著下滑。同时， 由于保证金措施最长可持续7个月，叠加18个月的调查期限制，国内四季度的菜籽供应预计将继续下 降，这对菜籽粕、菜籽油期货价格均构成利多支撑。"石丽红补充说。 供需共振增强上涨动能 值得注意的是，当前是水产养殖旺季，正逢菜粕刚性需求高峰。国元期货油脂油料分析师刘金鹭表示， 菜粕刚性需求增加，供应收缩预期与强势现实需求形成共振，短期价格易涨难跌。 "整体来看，在反倾销调查初裁认定的刺激下，菜系期货短期内将维持强势格局。"刘金鹭同时提醒，事 件驱动是当前盘面的主要支撑，但也需警惕高库存压力以及豆粕等替代品竞争可能引发的回调风 险。"投资者可关注远月合约的多头机会，同时密切跟踪中加贸易谈 ...

Core Viewpoint - The initial ruling of the anti-dumping investigation against Canadian canola seeds has led to a significant increase in domestic canola meal and oil prices, with expectations of continued upward pressure due to rising import costs and strong domestic demand [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The futures market for oilseeds has shown a strong performance, particularly in canola meal, with the RM2509 contract experiencing a daily increase of over 6% [1]. - The initial ruling determined a dumping margin of 75.8% for Canadian canola seeds, which will increase the cost of imports starting August 14 [2]. - Canada accounts for over 90% of domestic canola seed imports and over 70% of canola meal imports, making the ruling impactful on supply [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The current peak demand for canola meal coincides with the busy season for aquaculture, creating a strong demand-supply dynamic [3]. - The supply of canola seeds is expected to decline in the fourth quarter due to the ongoing anti-dumping investigation, which could further support prices for canola meal and oil [2][3]. - Domestic canola meal inventory has decreased from approximately 900,000 tons to 630,000 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that canola meal prices will maintain a strong upward trend, while the price potential for canola oil may be less pronounced due to increased imports from other sources [3][4]. - The reliance on Canadian canola seeds is significant, and unless imports from Australia normalize, the price of canola meal is expected to continue rising [3][4]. - The competition from soybean meal, which remains a primary protein source, may limit the long-term price increases for canola meal [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the anti-dumping investigation against Canadian canola seeds, highlighting the significant 75.8% deposit requirement and its potential impact on the domestic canola industry and market dynamics [4][5][18]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Investigation - The Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into imported canola seeds from Canada, with a preliminary ruling set to be released by August 12, 2025 [4]. - The deposit requirement of 75.8% for Canadian companies is a temporary measure aimed at mitigating the damage caused by dumping until a final ruling is made [5][18]. - The investigation is expected to last up to 18 months, with the final decision anticipated within the next 7 months [18]. Group 2: Impact on Domestic Canola Industry - The anti-dumping measures aim to restore the net profit and competitiveness of the domestic canola industry, as current prices for domestic canola have decreased from 6100 CNY/ton to 5700 CNY/ton [8]. - The domestic canola futures market is expected to see increased activity, with a recommendation to buy low on domestic canola futures contracts [8]. - The high deposit rate may lead to a reduction in import willingness from domestic industries, affecting overall supply and pricing dynamics [5][18]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Supply Chain - The investigation has already led to a tightening of canola imports, with some crushing enterprises halting canola meal sales [10]. - The supply of canola meal is particularly concerning, as imported canola meal faces a 100% tariff, limiting its entry into the domestic market [10]. - The article suggests that alternative sources for canola oil and meal may include imports from Dubai and Russia, but the supply of canola meal remains a challenge [14][19]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The article draws parallels with the 2019 blackleg disease incident, which also affected Canadian canola exports to China, indicating that trade normalization may depend on the resolution of tariff disputes [12]. - Future supply paths for canola meal may include the restoration of Australian canola imports and adjustments to the delivery standards for Indian and Russian canola meal [16]. - The overall market for canola oil is expected to remain stable, with potential price increases as demand continues to grow [19].

研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 玻璃方面，供应端：玻璃产线冷修数量减少1条，产量小幅增加，但是整体产量还在底部，刚需生产迹象明 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-08-13 | 最新 环比 | | | | | 项目类别 数据指标 | | 最新 环比 | | | | | 数据指标 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1383 169 | | | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | | 1214 141 1217919 64009 | | | | | -26 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -167 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | | | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | | | | | | | | | | | | 1023728 149431 纯碱前20名净持仓 -327717 37629 | | | | | 期货市场 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On August 12, 2025, the preliminary result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed in China was released. Starting from August 14, importers need to pay an additional deposit to the customs when importing Canadian rapeseed, with a deposit rate of 75.8% for all Canadian companies. This will suppress the trading willingness of importers and exporters and reduce the import volume of Canadian rapeseed [1][4][12]. - The implementation of the anti - dumping preliminary ruling will hinder the import of Canadian rapeseed after August 14. Coupled with limited alternative sources of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in the second half of the year, the already significantly reduced rapeseed import volume in the second half of 2025 will decline further. As the second half of the year is the peak season for oil consumption, it is expected to accelerate the inventory reduction of domestic rapeseed oil, which is currently de - stocking slowly and has the highest inventory level in history, thus benefiting the spot and futures prices and basis performance of rapeseed oil [2][10][12]. - Currently, the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed is still in the preliminary stage, and the policy may change before the final ruling. In the future, new Australian rapeseed may re - enter China, and China may also increase the import of rapeseed oil from Russia and the UAE. The consumption substitution of other oils for rapeseed oil will also affect the price of rapeseed oil [2][10][12]. - In terms of strategy, the 09 and 01 contracts of rapeseed oil will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, hitting the previous pressure level of 10,500 - 11,000. For unilateral trading, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing up, and those who already hold long positions should continue to hold. For arbitrage, it is recommended to pay attention to the 11 - 01 reverse spread of rapeseed oil and the rebound of the 01 spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil. In addition, focus on China's import policies related to rapeseed and rapeseed oil [2][13][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Impact of the Anti - Dumping Preliminary Ruling on Canadian Rapeseed Imports - The deposit for importing Canadian rapeseed is calculated based on the CNF price of Canadian rapeseed. Taking the rapeseed import cost on August 12 as an example, the deposit for the November shipment of Canadian rapeseed is 3,322 yuan/ton. The deposit is levied on Canadian companies, and domestic enterprises may also face the risk of deposit transfer [5]. - After the implementation of the new rule, the trading willingness of importers and exporters has been severely suppressed. It is difficult to add new Canadian rapeseed purchase contracts, and some existing purchase contracts after August may be cancelled. Since June, the arrival volume of domestic rapeseed has gradually declined. The estimated total import volume of rapeseed from July to October is 590,000 tons, a decrease of 77% compared with the same period last year, and there is a possibility of further tightening [7]. Limited Alternative Sources of Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - Although the import sources of domestic rapeseed oil are diverse, no country can supply as much as Canada. Since March, China has imposed a 100% anti - dumping tax on Canadian rapeseed oil, and the import volume has shrunk rapidly [7]. - The possibility of Australian rapeseed re - entering the Chinese market has increased significantly, but the expected output of Australian rapeseed in the 25/26 season is only 5.71 million tons, and it also needs to supply traditional markets such as the EU and Japan. The amount that can be exported to China may be quite limited, and the peak export season starts in November, so it cannot make up for the absence of Canadian rapeseed from September to October [8]. - Russia's rapeseed production is expected to increase to 5.3 million tons in the 25/26 season, but its rapeseed oil will not enter China in large quantities until October. The import volume of Russian rapeseed oil from October to December in 2023 - 24 was lower than the rapeseed oil output converted from the import volume of Canadian rapeseed during the same period [8]. - The annual rapeseed crushing capacity of the UAE is only about 1 million tons, and its export volume of rapeseed oil to China from July to December in 2023 - 24 was relatively small [8]. Impact on Domestic Rapeseed Oil - Due to the import obstruction of Canadian rapeseed and limited alternative sources, the arrival volume of domestic rapeseed will be significantly tightened in the second half of 2025. Coupled with the peak consumption season of oils in the fourth quarter, the supply will decrease while the demand increases, which will accelerate the inventory reduction of domestic rapeseed oil. As of the week of August 8, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 659,200 tons, still at the highest level in history, and there is still supply pressure. Accelerating inventory reduction will help the spot and futures prices and basis of domestic rapeseed oil to rise further [10]. - The anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed is still in the preliminary stage, and the final ruling will be determined between September 2025 and March 2026 at the latest. Before the final ruling, the regulations on the import of Canadian rapeseed may change. In addition, China may re - allow the import of Australian rapeseed and increase the import of rapeseed oil from Russia and the UAE, which will affect the price of rapeseed oil [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The USDA August supply - demand report shows adjustments in 2025/26 soybean data for the US, Brazil, Argentina, and globally, with changes in areas, yields, production, exports, and inventories [1]. - Brazilian soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts for August have increased, and Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 have significantly increased compared to the same period last month [1]. - Kedia Advisory predicts a 3% growth in Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production, but the 2024/25 export volume may decline [1]. - China's Ministry of Commerce has made a preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian imported rapeseed, and import operators need to pay a 75.8% margin starting from August 14, 2025 [1]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 2025/26 US Soybean Information - The sown area is estimated at 80.9 million acres (July estimate: 83.4 million acres), the harvested area at 80.1 million acres (July estimate: 82.5 million acres) [1]. - The yield per acre is estimated at 53.6 bushels (July estimate: 52.5 bushels), and the production at 4.292 billion bushels (July estimate: 4.335 billion bushels) [1]. - Exports are estimated at 1.705 billion bushels (July estimate: 1.745 billion bushels), and the ending stocks at 290 million bushels (July estimate: 310 million bushels) [1]. 3.2 2025/26 Global Soybean Information - Brazil's production is estimated at 175 million tons, and exports at 112 million tons, unchanged from July estimates [1]. - Argentina's production is estimated at 48.5 million tons (unchanged from July), and exports at 5.8 million tons (July estimate: 5 million tons) [1]. - China's imports are estimated at 112 million tons, unchanged from July [1]. - Global production is estimated at 426.39 million tons (July estimate: 427.68 million tons), and ending stocks at 124.9 million tons (July estimate: 126.07 million tons) [1]. 3.3 August Export Forecasts for Brazil - The soybean export volume is expected to reach 8.8 million tons (previous week's estimate: 8.15 million tons), and the soybean meal export volume is expected to reach 2.27 million tons (previous week's estimate: 1.74 million tons) [1]. 3.4 Malaysian Palm Oil Export Data - From August 1 - 10, 2025, the export volume of palm oil products was 339,143 tons, a 65.25% increase compared to the same period last month (205,225 tons) [1]. 3.5 Indonesia's Palm Oil Situation - Affected by reduced demand from major importing countries and the B40 biodiesel blending policy, the 2024/25 export volume may drop to 22.8 million tons [1]. - Kedia Advisory predicts that the 2025/26 production will increase by 3% to 47 million tons due to favorable weather and sufficient fertilizer use [1]. 3.6 Anti - Dumping Ruling on Canadian Rapeseed - China's Ministry of Commerce has initially determined that Canadian imported rapeseed is being dumped, causing material damage to the domestic rapeseed industry [1]. - Starting from August 14, 2025, import operators need to pay a 75.8% margin to Chinese customs [1]. 3.7 Other Information - There are data on oil imports' profit, spot prices, protein meal basis, oil basis, and oil - oilseed futures price spreads, but specific numerical summaries are not provided here due to the large amount of data [1].

Core Viewpoint - Japan is initiating anti-dumping investigations on certain steel products from China and South Korea to protect domestic manufacturers and address import pressures [1] Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation will focus on hot-dip galvanized sheets and strips [1] - The Japanese Ministry of Trade and Finance announced that the investigation is expected to be completed within one year [1] - Four companies, including Nippon Steel and Kobe Steel, filed the application for the investigation in April [1] Group 2: Stakeholder Involvement - The Japanese Ministry of Trade and Finance will provide opportunities for relevant parties, including suppliers from South Korea and China, to present evidence [1] - A decision on whether to impose tariffs will be made after considering the evidence presented [1]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market saw most prices rise at the beginning of trading on August 13, with oilseed and oil futures leading the gains [1] - As of 9:18 AM, the main contracts for rapeseed and rapeseed meal futures increased by over 5%, while rapeseed oil futures rose by over 4%, and soybean meal futures increased by over 3% [1] - The initial ruling by the Ministry of Commerce on August 12 found that Canadian rapeseed was being dumped, requiring domestic importers to provide corresponding guarantees when importing Canadian rapeseed [3] Group 2 - Analysts expect that domestic rapeseed oil prices will continue to rise in August due to increased production costs and anticipated supply shortages, with spot prices expected to exceed 10,200 yuan per ton [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For palm oil, the origin has strong supply and demand, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2]. - For soybean oil, the reduction of US soybean planting area provides a theme for price increases [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: Palm oil closed at 9,362 yuan/ton during the day session with a 1.56% increase and 9,414 yuan/ton at night with a 0.56% increase; soybean oil closed at 8,488 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.38% increase and 8,516 yuan/ton at night with a 0.33% increase; rapeseed oil closed at 9,802 yuan/ton during the day session with a 2.23% increase and 10,079 yuan/ton at night with a 2.83% increase [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: Palm oil trading volume decreased by 124,344 lots to 443,030 lots, and open interest decreased by 29,322 lots to 270,663 lots; soybean oil trading volume decreased by 23,809 lots to 140,203 lots, and open interest decreased by 28,769 lots to 306,250 lots; rapeseed oil trading volume increased by 77,172 lots to 271,285 lots, and open interest decreased by 8,561 lots to 117,479 lots [3]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,260 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,690 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 102 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 162 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 112 yuan/ton. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 448 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 886 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Anti - Dumping Investigation**: The Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of imported rapeseed from Canada, imposing a 75.8% deposit rate on all Canadian companies, causing a 4.5% drop in ICE Canadian rapeseed futures [4][5]. - **Tariff Adjustment**: Starting from 12:01 on August 12, 2025, the 24% additional tariff on US imports will be suspended for 90 days, while the 10% additional tariff will be retained [5]. - **US Soybean Supply and Demand**: According to the August USDA supply - demand report, the expected US soybean production for 2025/2026 is 4.292 billion bushels, the expected ending inventory is 290 million bushels, and the expected yield is 53.6 bushels per acre [5]. - **Indian Oil Imports**: Indian soybean oil imports in 2024/25 are expected to soar 60% year - on - year to 5.5 million tons, while palm oil imports may drop 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, and sunflower oil imports may drop 20% to 2.8 million tons [6]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory**: Malaysian palm oil inventory reached a 19 - month high of 2.11 million tons in July. Analysts expect the inventory to remain above 2 million tons, with prices likely to decline in Q3 and rise in Q4 [7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 1, and that of soybean oil is also 1, indicating a neutral trend [7].