1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of lithium carbonate showed a unilateral decline. The LC2507 contract of lithium carbonate decreased, with short - position reduction and stabilization during the period, followed by an increase in positions and a further decline. The 2507 contract closed at 63,020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,240 yuan/ton, the 2509 contract closed at 64,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,360 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 3,000 yuan/ton to 65,250 yuan/ton. The SMM basis (2505 contract) strengthened by 240 yuan/ton to 2,230 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium/discount quotation was +360 yuan/ton, a week - on - week strengthening of 60 yuan/ton. The spread between the 2507 - 2509 contracts was - 1,280 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 120 yuan/ton [1]. - The supply and demand fundamentals show that terminal demand is falling, and upstream costs are rapidly collapsing. Lithium ore prices continue to decline, and the decline rate has further increased. Although lithium ore prices are falling, most Australian mining companies maintain their production plans and shipments. Overseas salt lake suppliers cancel the previously set annual floor price and lower the discount coefficient. Domestic lithium carbonate production continues to decrease, with the largest production cuts in spodumene and salt lake enterprises, and the operating rate has declined. Affected by the US tariffs on domestic energy storage and overseas new energy vehicles, the subsequent production of battery cells is expected to be revised downwards. The inventory of finished products and raw materials of cathode material production enterprises is relatively high, and they lock in production profits by buying raw materials at the futures price and selling finished products at the spot price. The terminal market demand in May is sluggish, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles during the May Day holiday is lower than expected. Social inventory has changed from inventory accumulation to a slight inventory reduction, mainly due to the reduction in downstream demand. The lithium carbonate inventory is 132,000 tons, a decrease of 464 tons compared with last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts is 36,400 tons, an increase of 2,874 tons [2]. - The future market is expected to operate weakly. The fundamentals are expected to remain weak in both supply and demand. The decline in ore prices squeezes the production profit of mines, but there is no obvious reduction in ore supply. The industrial chain is still in the process of profit squeeze being transmitted upstream, and there is no obvious driving force for a rebound and repair. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [3]. - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations, and the price of the 2507 contract is expected to operate in the range of 65,000 - 69,000 yuan/ton [4]. - For inter - period trading, it is recommended to focus on left - hand trading mainly for positive spreads, with the driving forces coming from the expectation of ore production cuts, the expectation of basis strengthening, and the expectation of exempted brands. For hedging, it is recommended to conduct 30% long - hedging and 10% short - hedging. However, due to the lag in the decline of the long - term agreement benchmark price and the strengthening of the basis, there is a basis risk in long - hedging [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - The report provides a table of the price overview of the lithium industry chain spot market, including the prices and price changes of various lithium - related products such as lithium fluoride, lithium hexafluorophosphate, electrolyte, and different grades of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, cathode materials, and lithium batteries [9]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Side - Lithium Ore - The report shows the average price trend charts of spodumene concentrate, including the long - term price trend from 2021 - 09 - 08 to 2024 - 09 - 08 and the short - term price trend in 2025 [13]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - Stream Consumption - Side - Lithium Salt Products - The report presents multiple charts related to lithium salt products, including the price trends of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the import volume and average price of lithium concentrate, the price differences between battery - grade lithium carbonate in different regions, the production volume and operating rate of lithium carbonate, and the import and export volume of lithium carbonate [15][16][17]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Side - Lithium Batteries and Materials - The report provides a series of charts about lithium batteries and materials, including the apparent consumption and inventory available days of lithium carbonate, the monthly production volume and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, the import and export volume of ternary materials, the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries, and the production volume of various types of power lithium batteries [23][25][26].

4月26日，作为锂电产业的核心原材料，碳酸锂期货主力合约继周初跌破7万元大关后，进一步跌至 6.784万元(吨价，下同)。数据显示，今年以来碳酸锂期货跌幅达到14%。 上海钢联新能源事业部锂业分析师郑晓强表示，目前整体锂矿供应持续放量，且海内外盐湖提锂产能也 在同步扩张，预计碳酸锂价格后续还会震荡走低。 价格再创新低 2020年，全球新能源浪潮席卷而来，碳酸锂价格从4万元疯狂涨至60万元。2023年7月21日，碳酸锂期货 在广期所上市，当时上市开盘价高达21.8万元。然而，仅过两年时间，碳酸锂期货价格就从20万元跌至 目前不足7万元，跌幅高达68%。 忧虑，进一步抑制了需求。据Mysteel不完全统计，截至4月中旬，港口和国内锂矿石库存为6.85万吨， 环比上涨0.15万吨。 4月以来，美国政府的对等关税政策冲击锂电市场。对于我国锂电产业而言，今年的多轮关税新政，加 上美国已生效的对中国电池产品征收3.4%的基础关税，以及301条款25%的关税，使中国动力电池与储 能电池短期内对美出口综合税率从132.4%/114.9%飙升至153.4%/135.9%。 美国是中国锂电池出口的最大市场，受关税政策及贸易打压影 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate has been on a downward trend. In May, demand remains stable as the slight increase in power demand is offset by the decline in energy storage demand. Supply is expected to increase slightly as some smelters resume production, leading to an expansion of the surplus and a potential new high in inventory. The price is likely to test the support level of 65,000 yuan, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [4][77]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review and Outlook - **Price Trend**: After reaching a high of 81,000 yuan before the Spring Festival, the price of lithium carbonate has dropped by 15%, with the lowest point below 68,000 yuan. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival in April, it gapped down and then fluctuated weakly, reaching a minimum of 67,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Demand Side**: Sino - US tariffs have affected the US new - energy vehicle market and supply chain, potentially damaging the orders of ternary cathode factories with high export ratios in China. The procurement of lithium carbonate for energy storage due to the "531" rush has ended in March, and energy storage orders are weakening. In April, cathode factories' production increased slightly month - on - month, but their purchasing was restrained [3]. - **Supply Side**: In April, production first increased and then decreased. Some smelters conducted annual maintenance, and some reduced production due to a lack of (low - price) ores or losses. The price of Australian ores has fallen below $800/ton, and the market expects it to drop to $750/ton. Although domestic supply in April may be lower than the previous production plan, it still increased by thousands of tons compared to March [3]. - **Inventory and Market Conditions**: SMM social inventory increased slightly despite production cuts, indicating weak demand. The price volatility has decreased, reducing the arbitrage opportunities. The spot basis has strengthened, and holders are more inclined to sell spot goods [4]. - **Outlook for May**: Demand remains stable as the slight increase in power demand is offset by the decline in energy storage demand. Supply will increase as some smelters resume production, and the surplus will expand, with inventory expected to first decrease and then increase, reaching a new high [4]. 2. Market Tracking - **Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread Changes**: After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival in April, the price gapped down and fluctuated weakly. The volatility has decreased, reducing the arbitrage opportunities for cross - period and spot - futures traders. The spot basis has strengthened, and holders are less willing to register warehouse receipts [10]. - **Upstream Lithium Ore Price and Import Profit and Loss Trends**: The price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by $20/ton (3.2%), and the price of mica ore decreased by 180 yuan/ton (10.2%). Smelter production cuts have forced upstream mines to lower prices, leading to a spiral decline in lithium salt and lithium ore prices [19]. - **Downstream Cathode Material Price Trends**: Tariffs have little impact on China's new - energy vehicle exports but affect the export of energy storage systems and lithium batteries. Some ternary cathode material enterprises in China have suspended raw material procurement to deal with potential risks [22]. 3. Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **April: Weak Seasonal Features with Slight Growth** - **New - Energy Vehicles**: From April 1 - 20, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 478,000, a 20% year - on - year increase but an 11% month - on - month decrease. The global new - energy vehicle market in 2025 (January - February) showed a slowdown in growth in Europe and the US. China's new - energy vehicle exports increased significantly from January - March, and the news of the EU potentially replacing tariffs with a minimum price may boost exports to Europe [34][35]. - **Energy Storage**: The "531" rush for energy storage procurement has ended, and the demand for lithium carbonate has weakened. After the Sino - US tariff increase in April, some enterprises suspended exports and renegotiated prices. The market has different views on future demand [45]. - **Cathode Factories**: The production of power and energy storage cells in China from January - March increased significantly year - on - year. In May, the production of ternary cathode materials is expected to increase by about 1,000 tons, while the demand for lithium iron phosphate may decline as the increase in power demand is offset by the decrease in energy storage demand [50][51]. - **May: Slight Increase in Lithium Carbonate Supply** - **Lithium Ore Price and Cost**: Third - party institutions predict that the ore price will fall to below $750/ton. The cost of large integrated mines is decreasing, and African mines are the most profitable source of outsourced ores. The logistics cost of African mines is expected to decline [58]. - **Domestic Smelters**: In April, at least 6 smelters planned or carried out maintenance and production cuts, affecting a production volume of over 5,000 tons. In May, more than half of the enterprises undergoing annual maintenance will resume production, and some small and medium - sized enterprises are waiting for the ore price to fall. The import volume of lithium carbonate in May is expected to increase, and the total domestic supply will increase slightly [63][64]. - **Excess Re - Expands, Price Fluctuates Weakly**: In April, the weekly inventory increased, indicating weak demand. As of April 24, the SMM social inventory of lithium carbonate was 131,800 tons, and it is expected to reach a new high in May. The supply pressure will become more apparent from May, and the price of the main contract 2507 may test the support level of 65,000 yuan. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [77].