美国CPI公布后，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率升至100% 金十数据6月11日讯，据CME"美联储观察"： 美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为100%（数据公布前为99.8%）。美联储7月维持利 率不变的概率为84.5%，累计降息25个基点的概率为15.5%。 | 预测利率 | 2025.06.19 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.50%-3.75% | | | 0.0% | | 3.75%-4.00% | | 0.0% | 8.9% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 0.0% | 15.5% | 55.3% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 100.0% | 84.5% | 35.8% | 订阅美联储动态 +订阅 ...

美国CPI公布前，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为99.8% 金十数据6月11日讯，据CME"美联储观察"： 美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为99.8%，降息25个基点的概率为0.2%。美联储7月 维持利率不变的概率为87.5%，累计降息25个基点的概率为12.5%。 | 预测利率 | 2025.06.19 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.50%-3.75% | | | 0.0% | | 3.75%-4.00% | | 0.0% | 6.4% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 0.2% | 12.5% | 50.8% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 99.8% | 87.5% | 42.8% | @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. inflation data is expected to confirm the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance regarding monetary policy [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Federal Reserve's Stance** - The inflation data is anticipated to reinforce the Federal Reserve's cautious approach ahead of the policy decision next week [1] - The impact of increased tariffs is currently limited, which supports the Fed's position [1] - **Market Expectations** - According to LSEG data, the money market fully prices in the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at the upcoming meeting on June 18 [1] - There is an expectation that the probability of a rate cut in September exceeds 50% [1]

Group 1 - The core focus of global financial markets this week is the US inflation data for May, which will provide insights into the impact of tariffs on prices and influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][2] - The market expects the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to reflect the price pressures from tariffs, particularly in core categories such as clothing, household goods, and new cars [2][3] - The upcoming week will also see the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly initial jobless claims in the US, amidst mixed signals from recent economic data [3][10] Group 2 - In Europe, the focus will be on the Eurozone's industrial production and trade data for April to assess the economic impact of tariffs [6][7] - France and Spain will release their final CPI data for May on Friday, contributing to the overall understanding of inflation trends in the region [8] - The UK will publish significant data including employment figures, GDP, industrial production, and trade data, with expectations of a 0.2% contraction in April due to the effects of US tariffs on manufacturing [9][10] Group 3 - In Asia, Japan is expected to confirm a 0.7% contraction in its first-quarter GDP, indicating a risk of technical recession, alongside other economic indicators [10] - China's inflation and trade data for May will be released, with expectations of further declines in CPI and PPI, highlighting weak domestic demand and deflation risks [10][11] - Overall, global markets will closely monitor key economic data, especially US inflation figures, and their implications for Federal Reserve policy, while evaluating the ongoing impact of trade tensions on global economic growth and inflation trajectories [11]

EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS | 预测利率 | 2025.06.19 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.25%-3.50% | | | 0.0% | | 3.50%-3.75% | | 0.0% | 0.5% | | 3.75%-4.00% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 19.1% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 2.6% | 30.0% | 54.5% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 97.4% | 69.2% | 25.9% | 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 非农数据公布前，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为97.4% 据CME"美联储观察"： 美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为97.4%，降息25个基点的概率为2.6%。美联储到7月维持利率不变的概 率为69.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为30.0%，累计降息50个基点的概率为0.8%。 ...

美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为97.5% 金十数据6月6日讯，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为97.5%，降息25个基点的概率为2.5%。美联储7月维 持利率不变的概率为67.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为32.0%，累计降息50个基点的概率为0.8%。 EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS | 预测利率 | 2025.06.19 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.25%-3.50% | | | 0.0% | | 3.50%-3.75% | | 0.0% | 0.5% | | 3.75%-4.00% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 20.0% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 2.5% | 32.0% | 53.7% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 97.5% | 67.3% | 25.9% | @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 ...

EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 | 预测利率 | 2025.06.19 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.25%-3.50% | | | 0.0% | | 3.50%-3.75% | | 0.0% | 0.2% | | 3.75%-4.00% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 15.3% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 1.2% | 25.4% | 54.7% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 98.8% | 74.3% | 29.9% | 美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为98.8% 金十数据6月4日讯，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为98.8%，降息25个基点的概率为1.2%。美联储7月维 持利率不变的概率为74.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为25.4%，累计降息50个基点的概率为0.3%。 @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing significant internal divisions regarding whether to maintain interest rates or consider rate cuts later this year, influenced by the potential lasting impact of tariffs on inflation [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Some officials advocate for ignoring the temporary effects of tariffs on inflation, opening the door for potential rate cuts [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee believes the uncertainty surrounding tariffs is creating some "dust in the air," but still sees a path toward rate cuts [2] - Other members, including Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Logan, argue for keeping rates unchanged until the impact of tariffs becomes clearer [2][3] Group 2: Inflation and Tariff Impact - Waller, a Fed governor, asserts that any inflation caused by tariffs is likely to be temporary, aligning with the White House's view that price increases will be short-lived [1][4] - The Fed's May meeting minutes indicate that some officials believe tariffs on intermediate goods could lead to more persistent inflation [3][4] - Waller anticipates that the impact of tariffs on inflation will be most pronounced in the second half of 2025, depending on the final extent of tariff increases and responses from exporters and importers [4] Group 3: Economic Conditions and Policy Implications - Waller emphasizes that a strong job market and recent progress in inflation provide the Fed with time to observe trade negotiations and economic developments [1] - Logan warns that while short-term rate cuts can stimulate employment, excessive cuts could lead to an inflation spiral over time [3] - Some officials suggest that factors such as reduced tariff increases through trade negotiations and low consumer tolerance for price hikes could offset rising inflation [4]

Group 1 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 95.4% [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in June is 4.6% [1] - For July, the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 73.7%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 25.2% and a 50 basis point cut probability of 1.0% [1] Group 2 - The projected interest rate probabilities for upcoming FOMC meetings show a 4.6% chance of maintaining the current rate of 4.25%-4.50% in June, decreasing to 25.2% in July [4] - The likelihood of rates being in the range of 4.00%-4.25% increases to 57.1% by September [4] - The probabilities for rates in the range of 3.75%-4.00% rise to 17.0% by September [4]

Economic Growth - Recent data indicates a slowdown in US GDP growth, with certain industries showing insufficient growth momentum [3] - Manufacturing PMI data has been hovering near the expansion threshold, indicating obstacles in manufacturing growth [3] - Although the service sector remains relatively stable, it faces challenges due to fluctuations in consumer spending willingness [3] - The job market shows signs of easing, with a decrease in the number of new jobs despite a relatively low unemployment rate [3] Inflation Concerns - Current inflation levels, while lower than previous peaks, remain above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% [3] - Core inflation persists at elevated levels due to factors such as energy price volatility and lingering supply chain issues [3] - The potential for rising inflation poses a significant threat to long-term economic stability, complicating the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts [3] Market Expectations - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions show significant divergence, with a 97.8% probability of maintaining current rates in the short term [4] - By July, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut rises to 22%, indicating growing market concerns about the US economic outlook [4] - Recent declines in US Treasury yields reflect market expectations of potential rate cuts to stimulate economic growth [4] Monetary Policy Implications - Rate cuts could lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, potentially stimulating investment and consumption [5] - Lower interest rates may enhance the competitiveness of the US economy amid global economic slowdowns and trade tensions [5] - Political factors may influence the Fed's decisions, especially in election years, as there may be pressure to lower rates to stimulate the economy [5] Conclusion - The Fed's interest rate decision is currently in a delicate balance, with considerations for inflation control and economic stimulation [5] - Future decisions will depend on dynamic economic data, inflation trends, and evolving market expectations, impacting both the US economy and global financial markets [5]