Core Viewpoint - As of July 30, the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 955.37 tons of gold, reflecting a decrease of 0.86 tons from the previous trading day, amid a significant drop in spot gold prices [6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - The current total holding of the SPDR Gold Trust is 955.37 tons of gold [6]. - The holdings decreased by 0.86 tons compared to the previous trading day [6]. Group 2: Gold Price Movement - On July 30, spot gold prices fell sharply, breaking below the $3,300 mark, reaching a low of $3,267.95 per ounce, and closing at $3,274.92 per ounce, down $51.66 or 1.55% [6]. - Gold prices initially maintained above $3,330 per ounce but dropped significantly during the U.S. trading session due to economic data and the Federal Reserve's latest decisions [6]. Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The U.S. ADP employment report showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations, indicating a robust labor market and rising corporate hiring intentions [6]. - The second-quarter economic growth in the U.S. surpassed expectations, reducing the rationale for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which in turn strengthened the dollar and pressured gold prices [6]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, with increasing internal dissent as two voting members supported a rate cut [7]. - The Fed's dovish statement suggests a higher likelihood of a rate cut in September, although Chairman Powell did not provide guidance on this during the press conference, which tempered market expectations for a rate cut [7]. Group 5: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Following the breach of the $3,300 level, technical indicators for gold have worsened, indicating further downside risk [7]. - The short-term support level is around $3,245, and if breached, gold prices could target $3,200 and the May 15 low of $3,120 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strength of the US dollar is unlikely to be sustained following the US-EU trade agreement, as potential risks loom ahead [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Monex Europe analysts suggest that the US Treasury's quarterly refinancing plan announced this week could lead to a bond market crash, which may weaken the dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates this Wednesday, but officials Bowman and Waller may cast dissenting votes, marking the first time in over 30 years that two officials disagree [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Given the upcoming risk events, there is a cautious outlook on the potential for a stronger dollar [1]

Group 1 - The dollar index declined by 0.4%, with traders skeptical about the sustainability of the recent dollar gains despite easing trade tensions [1] - As of this week, nominal value of dollar short positions totaled approximately $61 billion, exceeding $55 billion in dollar long positions [1] - Optimism regarding a trade truce between the US and China led to the dollar's best performance since the US presidential election, rising by 1% on Monday [1] Group 2 - Many banks, including Nordea and Rabobank, believe that despite the recent rebound, the dollar will decline in the long term, raising their forecasts for the euro and yuan [5] - Deutsche Bank's global head of foreign exchange strategy expressed caution regarding US assets due to concentrated risks, despite a more conciliatory US policy direction [4] Group 3 - The options market remains bearish on the dollar, with a risk reversal indicating long-term bearish sentiment, although slightly lower than the previous week [7] - Macquarie Bank strategists noted that the damage from the April tariff turmoil will limit the dollar's gains, predicting a return to depreciation [7]