July 8, 2025 04:11 AM GMT M Foundation Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific China Materials Updates We expect copper, aluminum and gold will remain at elevated levels, and we see supply cuts in steel and cement in the 2H. Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Rachel L Zhang Equity Analyst Rachel.Zhang@morganstanley.com +852 2239-1520 Hannah Yang, CFA Equity Analyst Hannah.Yang1@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7079 Chris Jiang Equity Analyst Chris.Jiang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-1593 Davven Xu, CFA Research Associate D ...

July 9, 2025 02:34 AM GMT China Materials | Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ US Set to Announce 50% Copper Tariffs - Chinese Equity Implications Commodity implications: As per our commodities team (Note link), the development is 1) Positive for COMEX copper: COMEX copper is a duty-paid price with all COMEX warehouses located in the US, and therefore should reflect the cost of bringing metal into the US given the US is a net importer. However, the sizeable inventory build-up that has taken place sho ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the eCommerce industry, highlighting several "Buy" rated stocks as secular winners, including Amazon.com (AMZN), JD.com (JD), Coupang (CPNG), Sea Ltd. (SE), MercadoLibre (MELI), Zalando (ZAL), and Eternal (ETEA) [7]. Core Insights - Global eCommerce sales are projected to grow at a +6% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, reaching approximately $6.4 trillion by 2030, driven by modest increases in online penetration rates and significant growth in regions with lower current penetration [5][16]. - The report identifies the Food and Beverage category as a key driver of eCommerce growth, with expectations of a +10% CAGR in this segment from 2025 to 2030 [33]. - The eCommerce market is expected to continue consolidating, with the largest platforms gaining market share, particularly in the global ex-China market where the top five platforms accounted for 50% of total online sales in 2024 [38]. Summary by Sections Global eCommerce Opportunity - The report estimates global eCommerce sales at $4.3 trillion in 2024, growing to $4.7 trillion in 2025, with a long-term growth forecast of +6% CAGR through 2030 [16]. - Global eCommerce penetration is expected to rise from 23% in 2025 to 26% by 2030, indicating a gradual shift towards online shopping [16]. Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a slowdown in global real GDP growth in 2025, particularly in the US and Asia, which may impact eCommerce sales [10]. - Tariffs and the evolving global trade environment are highlighted as significant risk factors for the industry [10]. Valuation Insights - Current global eCommerce valuation multiples are below long-term averages, reflecting a slower growth profile, although growth-adjusted multiples remain at historical norms [10]. - The report includes a refreshed DCF-based intrinsic value framework for GMV-based platforms [10]. Regional Insights - The report emphasizes that regions with lower online penetration, such as India, Latin America, and ASEAN, present the highest growth potential for eCommerce [10][16]. - In the US, eCommerce sales are projected to grow to nearly $1.7 trillion by 2030, with an average annual increase in online penetration of 70 basis points [50]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the largest eCommerce platforms are capturing a majority of incremental sales, driven by competitive advantages such as low prices and fast delivery [100]. - Essential product categories are outperforming discretionary categories, with platforms focused on staples seeing stronger growth [100].

Investment Ratings - Kuaishou: Buy rated, share price increased by 55% YTD and 28% post 1Q result [3] - Tencent Music: Buy rated, share price increased by 80% YTD and 37% post 1Q result [5] - NetEase: Buy rated, share price increased by 52% YTD and 25% post 1Q result [11] - Focus Media: Buy rated, share price increased by 11% YTD and 8% post 1Q result [14] - Bilibili: Buy rated, share price increased by 31% YTD and 22% post 1Q result [18] Core Insights - The report highlights a strong rally in major games and entertainment names post 1Q25 results, driven by resilient growth profiles, disciplined competition, AI applications potential, and rising expectations on game pipelines [1] - Key focus areas for the upcoming earnings season include advertising outlook, game momentum into the summer peak season, AI applications monetization, and pricing strategies [2] - The report anticipates that further upside in share prices will require continued earnings delivery or new growth engines contributing to revenue growth in future years [1] Kuaishou - Kuaishou is expected to deliver in-line results for 2Q25 with a 12% year-over-year growth in ads and a 13% growth in GMV, with a 3Q25 outlook of 14% ads growth [3][4] - The company is positioned to improve sequential ads from 2Q onwards due to higher monetization efforts, despite competition from peers [4] - The revenue target for Kling AI has been raised from US$100 million to over US$140 million for FY25 [4] Tencent Music - Tencent Music is projected to achieve a 17% year-over-year growth in music revenue for 2Q25, with an ARPU increase of 9% [8] - The company is expected to maintain good momentum in ARPU due to lower discounts on SVIP subscriptions and new content initiatives [9] - Long-term growth visibility remains strong, with expectations of mid-teen year-over-year music revenue growth [10] NetEase - NetEase is expected to report a 15% year-over-year growth in game revenue for 2Q25, with operating profit increasing by 20% [11][12] - The company is focusing on updates for its 2026 game pipeline, with expectations of stable performance from legacy titles [13] - The stock is trading at 16X 2025E PE, with potential for further EPS upgrades [13] Focus Media - Focus Media's revenue is expected to increase by 1% year-over-year in 2Q25, with operating profit up by 3% [14] - The company anticipates a 6% year-over-year sales increase in 2H25 due to rising ad demand from internet and selective consumer players [15] - The collaboration with Alipay aims to target 400K devices across tier 1/2 locations [17] Bilibili - Bilibili's game sales are projected to increase by 58% year-over-year in 2Q25, with ads up by 18% [18] - The company is expected to face a high comparison in 2H24 but has reset market expectations lower, with potential catalysts from new game approvals [19] - Despite valuation concerns, Bilibili is expected to deliver faster than industry growth in ads and livestreaming [20] Price Targets and Estimates - For NetEase, revenue estimates for 2025-27E have been slightly adjusted downwards, while net profit estimates have been raised [21] - Focus Media's revenue estimates have been trimmed slightly, but the price target has been revised up to Rmb8.3 [21] - Across game coverage, price targets and estimates for XD have been raised due to solid new game releases and better profit margins [21]

Good morning and good afternoon, everyone. It is July 11th, Thursday. Welcome to Morgan Stanley Asia Micro webcast. My name is Crystal Ji, Asian EM, equity strategist. Before we start, please note that this event is for Morgan Stanley institutional clients and financial advisors only. It is not for members of press. If you're a member of the press, please log off and reach out separately. Please also note that this broadcast, your questions may be recorded. Today, we have Chetan Iyer, Chief Asia Economist, ...

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. 9 July 2025 | 5:00AM BST This report is intended for distribution to GS institutional clients only. GOAL: Global Opportunity Asset Locator 2H Outlook: Goldilocks and the three bears Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA +44(20)7774-1714 | christian.mueller- glissmann@gs.com Goldman Sachs I ...

9 July 2025 | 1:20PM SGT Base Metals Comment: Copper: Pricing a Higher Copper Tariff Eoin Dinsmore +65-6889-2401 | eoin.dinsmore@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Lavinia Forcellese +44(20)7774-9243 | lavinia.forcellese@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Aurelia Waltham +44(20)7051-2547 | aurelia.waltham@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Samantha Dart +1(212)357-9428 | samantha.dart@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals remain in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - Methanol is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. With the improvement of domestic commodity sentiment, the upward and downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - The supply and demand of domestic urea are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] - For rubber, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the second half of the year. Adopt a long - term bullish mindset, build positions opportunistically, and use a neutral - to - bullish short - term strategy [8][12] - PVC is expected to have strong supply and weak demand. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening. It will be under pressure in the future [14] - The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [17] - The price of polyethylene is expected to remain volatile [19] - The price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20] - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23] - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the demand side is slightly under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.42, or 2.08%, to $66.87; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.30, or 1.85%, to $68.88; INE main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan, or 0.54%, to 522.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.37 million barrels to 12.00 million barrels, a 2.97% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.15 million barrels to 9.74 million barrels, a 1.51% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 24.71 million barrels, a 5.68% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 46.46 million barrels, a 1.78% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 26 yuan/ton to 2398 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 8 [3] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate continued to decline by 3.89%, coal - to - methanol profit increased slightly, and overseas plant operating rate returned to medium - high levels [3] - **Demand**: Port MTO load decreased slightly, traditional demand operating rates varied, and it is currently the off - season. Downstream profit levels are generally low, and methanol valuation is still high [3] - **Inventory**: Both port and enterprise inventories increased during the off - season [3] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 1777 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 53 [5] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.6 tons, and the overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level [5] - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizers has bottomed out and rebounded, and exports are still ongoing. Future demand is concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [5] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Due to the bullish expectations in the real estate market, most industrial products rose, and NR and RU rose significantly [8] - **Long - Short Views**: Bulls believe that factors in Southeast Asia may lead to rubber production cuts, and rubber usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [8] - **Industry Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.81 percentage points from last week and 5.59 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, up 2.51 percentage points from last week and down 6.36 percentage points from the same period last year. Tire enterprises' shipment rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure [9] - **Inventory**: As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.6% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 78.9 tons, a 1.2% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 50.5 tons, a 0.3% decrease. As of July 7, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.52 (- 0.14) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14150 (+ 300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1735 (+ 30) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1740 (+ 30) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9100 (+ 50) yuan, and North China butadiene was 11200 (0) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 77 yuan to 5040 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4860 (+ 70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 180 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 103 (- 8) yuan/ton [14] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2250 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 620 (- 10) yuan/ton, ethylene was 820 (0) dollars/ton, and the cost remained flat. The spot price of caustic soda was 820 (+ 10) yuan/ton [14] - **Supply**: The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 0.7% decrease; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.8%, a 0.2% decrease; the ethylene method was 68.5%, a 1.9% decrease [14] - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.9%, a 0.1% increase [14] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 38.6 tons (- 0.9), and social inventory was 59.2 tons (+ 1.7) [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [17] - **Cost**: The operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant [17] - **Supply**: The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation increased, and the operating rate of styrene continued to rise. Port inventory increased [17] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products decreased [17] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19] - **Supply**: The upstream operating rate was 77.82%, a 0.34% increase. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.47 tons to 49.31 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 0.09 tons to 6.05 tons [19] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the demand for agricultural films was weak, and the overall operating rate fluctuated downward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [20] - **Supply**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, increasing the supply of propylene [20] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. In the off - season, both supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [20] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 58 yuan to 6782 yuan, and PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 852 dollars. The basis was 240 yuan (- 45), and the 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan (- 10) [22] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 81%, a 2.8% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 74.1%, a 1.1% increase. Some domestic plants reduced production, while some overseas plants restarted or increased loads [22] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase [22] - **Inventory**: In late May, the inventory was 434.6 tons, a 16.5 - ton decrease from the previous month [23] - **Valuation**: PXN was 261 dollars (+ 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 84 dollars (+ 11) [23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 24 yuan to 4742 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4735 yuan. The basis was 7 yuan (- 29), and the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan (- 16) [24] - **Supply**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase. Some plants increased production, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [24] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 213.5 tons, a 1.9 - ton increase [24] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 24 yuan to 128 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 14 yuan to 293 yuan [24] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4325 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 27 yuan to 4374 yuan. The basis was 70 (- 1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 33 yuan (- 4) [25] - **Supply**: The EG operating rate was 68.1%, a 1.5% increase; among them, the syngas - based method was 73.1%, a 3.8% increase; the ethylene - based method was 64.2%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted [25] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [25] - **Inventory**: The import forecast was 9.6 tons, and the East China port outbound volume on July 9 was 1.24 tons. Port inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 58 tons [25] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production was - 644 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 704 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 951 yuan [25]

that tunnel collapsed uh trapping all of those workers. Tonight, new details of the desperate struggle underground. Friends and family recounting how they watched as these cranes hoisted over two dozen trap workers to safety.I thought my husband died. I love him, but I'm so glad that he's okay. And I'm not going to take another day for granted.The mayor meeting with rescued workers and firefighters after an incredible survival story that's even shocking to the first responders. Last night was nothing short ...