肩负时代使命 应对未来挑战 谢戎彬指出，当前，站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"开局的历史节点，中国汽车业正迎来从"规模领先"向"质量突围"的关键跃迁。作为党中央机关报旗 下的汽车媒体人，肩负着记录产业变革、解读政策举措、凝聚行业共识的时代使命。 不久前，党的二十届四中全会审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》，明确提出"推动高质量发展取得显著 成效""科技自立自强水平大幅提高""统筹发展与安全"等核心目标。谢戎彬认为，这些战略部署，为中国汽车产业指明了新方向，也赋予了媒体人更重大 的历史使命。 （本文原标题为 中国能源汽车传播集团党委书记、董事长、总编辑兼中国汽车报社社长、中国能源报总编辑谢戎彬：为汽车产业发展贡献更 多"舆论力量"） 日前，由中国汽车报社主办、以"展望'十五五' 巩固车优势"为主题的第二十届中国经济论坛平行论坛在广东省广州市南沙经济技术开发区举行。 中国能源汽车传播集团党委书记、董事长、总编辑兼中国汽车报社社长、中国能源报总编辑谢戎彬在论坛上作了题为《锚定"十五五" 谱写新华章》 的致辞。他分析了汽车产业的当前形势和发展趋势，并提出了今后的重点任务。 "随着新能 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to experience a downward trend, with the Chemical ETF (516020) showing a decline of 0.39% as of the latest update, after a drop of over 2% during the day [1] - Key stocks in the lithium battery and phosphate chemical sectors have seen significant declines, with Enjie Co. down over 4%, and Hongda Co. and Chuanfa Longmang both down over 3% [1] - The Chemical ETF has shown a year-to-date increase of 24.89%, outperforming major A-share indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (14.41%) and the CSI 300 Index (13.18%) [1][3] Group 2 - The basic chemical industry is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms driven by "anti-involution" policies, leading to an improved supply-demand balance and increased market share for leading companies [4] - The phosphoric and potash sectors are experiencing high demand, with stable prices for phosphate rock and steady growth in potash demand [4] - The valuation of the Chemical ETF is relatively low, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.28, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [4] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the sub-sector chemical industry index, covering various segments of the chemical industry, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks [5] - Investors can also access the chemical sector through linked funds of the Chemical ETF, enhancing investment efficiency [5]

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry is entering a critical window period during the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2021-2025), focusing on high-quality development and technological independence [4][5][6] - The industry aims to transition from being a major automotive nation to a strong automotive power, leveraging advancements in electric vehicles and smart technologies [4][5][6] Group 1: Industry Development and Trends - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has seen the Chinese automotive industry achieve significant milestones, transitioning from "catching up" to "keeping pace" in the fields of electrification and intelligent networking [4][5] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" will emphasize broader innovation, including materials, foundational technologies, and smart chassis applications [5] - The automotive industry is expected to undergo a rapid reshuffling, with competition shifting from single product focus to ecosystem competition [5][6] Group 2: Safety and Regulation - Safety is identified as a fundamental requirement for the healthy and high-quality development of the automotive industry, with ongoing regulatory innovations to address emerging challenges [6] - The National Market Supervision Administration will enhance safety regulations to support the industry's high-quality growth [6] Group 3: Regional Development and Opportunities - Nansha District in Guangzhou is highlighted as a new hub for the automotive industry, particularly in smart and connected vehicles, benefiting from strategic policies and development opportunities [6] - The district aims to leverage technological innovation to drive industry upgrades and foster a collaborative ecosystem [6] Group 4: Globalization and International Cooperation - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to highlight new trends in international cooperation, with a focus on electric vehicle platforms and technologies [7] - The global market for electric vehicles still has significant growth potential, presenting investment opportunities for the Chinese automotive supply chain [7] Group 5: Insurance and Risk Management - The growth of the new energy vehicle market underscores the importance of developing specialized insurance products to support the industry's evolution and enhance vehicle safety [8] - Insurance is seen as a tool to optimize the automotive supply chain and facilitate the global expansion of the Chinese automotive industry [8] Group 6: Strategic Recommendations - Industry leaders emphasize the need for a shift in development mindset, advocating for a collaborative approach to both domestic and international competition [9][10] - There is a call for a focus on quality over scale, with an emphasis on long-term strategies that align with national goals [10] - The industry is encouraged to overcome technological bottlenecks and enhance global competitiveness through innovation and strategic partnerships [10]

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The IMF has slightly raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, with developed economies expected to grow at approximately 1.5% and emerging markets at over 4%[14] - The UAE's economic growth forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 4.8%, up from earlier predictions[14] - The US economy is projected to grow by 2.0% in 2025, slightly above the average for developed countries[14] Group 2: Domestic Economic Trends - China's GDP growth for 2025 is expected to be around 4.8%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from 2024, with further decline to 4.2% in 2026[14] - Fixed asset investment in China turned negative in September 2025, dropping from a positive 0.5% in August to -1.7% in October[49] - Real estate development investment in China has decreased by 14.7% year-on-year as of October 2025[49] Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Global inflation is expected to ease, but the US still faces inflation risks above target levels, while other regions maintain moderate inflation[15] - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut cycle, reducing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%[30] - The probability of the Fed not lowering rates in December 2025 has risen to 51.4%, indicating market uncertainty[32] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market may benefit from the Fed's rate cuts, as liquidity improves and capital flows to higher-yield emerging markets[7] - Long-term investment in gold is recommended, with prices expected to rise further during the global rate cut cycle, currently above $4000 per ounce[8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the defense and military industry [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the anticipation of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the significant growth expected in both domestic and international demand for the military industry, driven by multiple catalysts such as the centenary of the military and rapid development in military trade [4][44]. - The military industry is expected to see a strong recovery in demand by 2026, with a current TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 67.34, indicating a high allocation significance at this time [4][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The military index (801740) decreased by 1.72% from November 17 to November 21, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 3.77% [10][15]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the military index has risen by 11.39%, while the CSI 300 index has increased by 13.18%, resulting in a relative underperformance of -1.79% [17]. 2. Core Weekly Insights - The report highlights the recent naval exercises involving the Fujian aircraft carrier and various aircraft, showcasing advancements in military capabilities [3][43]. - The Dubai Airshow featured high-end aviation equipment from the Aviation Industry Corporation of China, indicating efforts to expand international markets [3][43]. 3. Important News and Announcements - The report notes significant developments in the aerospace sector, including successful satellite launches and advancements in fusion energy technology [50][51]. - It also mentions initiatives to promote low-altitude economic applications and the establishment of modern state-owned forest farms [52][53]. 4. Funding and Valuation - Passive fund inflows into the military sector have continued, with a net inflow of 3.88 billion yuan over the week, despite a slight decrease in fund size [29][44]. - The report indicates that the military sector's valuation remains attractive, with a projected recovery in demand expected to enhance performance in the coming years [4][44].

Market Overview - A-shares opened higher but declined, with small-cap growth stocks showing slight strength, while major indices like the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component experienced minor declines [1] - The trading volume continues to shrink, indicating a potential decrease in market activity [1] Defense and Military Industry - The defense and military sector saw a strong rally, with the sector index opening high and gaining momentum [1] - Aerospace Hangyu surged by 20%, reaching a two-year high, with trading volume surpassing the previous day's total within the first 10 minutes [1] - Other stocks like Jiuzhiyang, Leike Defense, and Tianjian Technology also hit their daily limits or rose over 10% [1][3] Revenue and Profit Growth - The defense industry achieved a revenue of 450.79 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.74%, while net profit slightly increased by 0.02% to 24.45 billion yuan [3] - The naval equipment sub-sector reported a revenue growth of 16.2% and a significant net profit increase of 87.5%, with gross margin rising from 11.2% to 13.2% [3] Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy sector is becoming increasingly active, with stocks like Leike Defense and Teifa Information quickly hitting their daily limits [3][4] - Recent events such as the "2025 China (Jiangxi) Aviation Industry Conference" and the "2025 Hunan (International) General Aviation and Low-altitude Economy Expo" have catalyzed interest in this sector [4] Real Estate Sector - Real estate stocks collectively showed strong performance, particularly in engineering consulting services, with the sector index rising over 4% [5] - Stocks like Zhaobiao Co. and Huajian Group quickly reached their daily limits, with Zhaobiao Co. hitting a new high for the year [5][6] - Various sub-sectors within real estate, including property services and green building, also experienced significant gains [6] Policy Support for Real Estate - Continuous policy support is being observed, with local governments implementing measures to stabilize and promote the real estate market [10][11] - Recent data indicates that the total transaction volume of new and second-hand residential properties in 30 key cities remained stable year-on-year, with second-hand home transactions increasing by nearly 6% [11]

Core Points - The 2025 Boao Forum for Entrepreneurs will be held from December 2 to 5 in Boao, Hainan, focusing on the theme "Linking the World, Leading the Future: New Opportunities in the 15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The forum aims to enhance confidence in China's high-quality economic development, improve corporate innovation capabilities, and promote mutually beneficial cooperation [1] Event Details - The forum will last four days and include a main forum along with numerous parallel sessions such as the Digital Technology Innovation Development Conference, New Consumption Development Forum, CEO Innovation Business Forum, Health Future Forum, "Finance+" Ecological Alliance Conference, High-Quality Development Forum for County Economy, and Cultural Economy Development Forum [1] - Special events will also be held to promote the Hainan Free Trade Port [1] Historical Context - The Boao Forum for Entrepreneurs has been held successfully for nine sessions since its inception in 2016, recognized as an annual intellectual feast for the business community [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant uncertainty and volatility in the commodity market for 2025, driven by global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions, leading to a complex scenario of "falling prices and increasing volatility" [2] - The year 2025 is identified as a critical period for market restructuring and for companies to redefine resilience and competitiveness, particularly with the upcoming launch of platinum and palladium futures [2] Event Details - The event organized by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) will take place on December 4, 2025, in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, from 15:00 to 17:00 [3] - The agenda includes various thematic discussions, including the impact of the "14th Five-Year Plan" on the copper market and the outlook for the cotton market amid changing tariffs [4][5] Speaker Profiles - Kian Pang Tan, Head of Agriculture Research at LSEG, specializes in palm oil and sugar market analysis, with over ten years of experience in agricultural research [9] - Fu Xiaoyan, Senior Director at Nanhua Futures Research Institute, has extensive experience in the futures industry and focuses on copper market research [10] - Wang Yaoyao, Head of Commodity Sales at LSEG, has over ten years of experience in the commodity sector, providing data and analysis solutions to enhance research efficiency and trading decisions [14] Commodity Market Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of structured data utilization in commodity trading, highlighting that timely and accurate information is crucial for decision-making [18] - LSEG offers comprehensive solutions for energy, metals, and agricultural trading, leveraging a vast database and a strong analyst team to provide insights and competitive advantages [19][22][23][25]

E Vice I 2025 年 11 月 24 日 看好 相关研究 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 册 分歧污 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 期待"十五五"订单陆续落 大军工行业关注度 国防军工行业周报（2025年第 48 周） 本期投资提示: 上周申万国防军工指数下跌 1.72%，中证军工龙头指数下跌 2.87%，同期上证综指下 跌 3.9%, 沪深 300 下跌 3.77%, 创业板指下跌 6.15%, 申万国防军工指数跑赢创业 板指、跑赢沪深 300、跑赢上证综指、跑赢军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上周 国防军工板块 1.72%的跌幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 4 位。2、从我们构建的 军工集团指数变化来看，上周中证民参军涨跌幅排名 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the integration of investments in both physical and human capital, highlighting the importance of enhancing capabilities and potential development across the entire population and lifecycle [2][4]. - Key focus areas for investment in human capital include early childhood education, elderly care, health, education, and skills training [2][4]. - The proposal suggests improving the income distribution system to ensure that compensation is based on contribution, promoting a merit-based reward system [3][4]. Group 2 - There is a call for gradual advancement towards equalization of basic public services, aiming to reduce disparities in service availability across regions, urban-rural divides, and different demographic groups [4]. - The plan advocates for increasing the proportion of government investment in areas related to people's livelihoods, such as childcare, education, healthcare, vocational training, inclusive elderly care, and cultural sports [4][5]. - The establishment of a long-term mechanism for investing in human capital is recommended, which includes optimizing fiscal responsibilities and enhancing local government assessment and incentive mechanisms [5].