新华社北京10月30日电 美国联邦储备委员会29日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间再次下调25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间。美联储主席鲍威尔当天表示， 美联储12月货币政策会议进一步降息并非板上钉钉。 政府"停摆"导致多项官方经济数据发布推迟，而"停摆"前发布的数据显示美国经济活动增长势头可能比预期更为强劲。鲍威尔因此表示，美联储12月货币政 策会议进一步降息并非板上钉钉，情况"远非如此"。 Bell Production pin a well a works of the contribution in the many of the many of the many of the many of the many of the world be California ar 19 are in the re all of the 198 1010 10月29日，美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔在华盛顿出席记者会。新华社记者胡友松摄 美联储委员会当天结束为期两天的货币政策会议。其决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说，现有指标显示，美国经济活动一直以温和的速度扩 张，今年就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升，通胀率 ...

澳洲联邦银行经济学家桑德斯预计，今年澳洲联储将不会再次降息，因为价格上涨幅度太大。预计本季 度澳大利亚经修正的平均通胀率同比可能高达2.9%，这将使澳洲联储感到不安。不过，澳洲联储的声 明将需要包括一些有关近期失业率飙升的内容，为2月份进一步降息敞开了大门。 （文章来源：新华财经） 期货市场显示，下周澳洲联储降息的可能性为8%，CPI数据公布前为40%。 澳洲联储主席布洛克周一表示，澳洲联储必须决定，是进一步下调利率以支持劳动力市场，还是维持现 状以保持对通胀的下行压力。布洛克指出："月度数据可能会有波动。"她指的是近期高于预期的失业率 和通胀数据。"我们需要再等等，收集更多数据。"她的讲话正值澳大利亚失业率上月升至4.5%，而通胀 仍然顽固不下，使得在11月3日至4日会议前的政策前景更加复杂。 新华财经北京10月29日电受住房和旅行成本上升推动，澳大利亚9月季度消费者物价创两年多来最大涨 幅，核心通胀的意外飙升，几乎排除了短期内降息的可能性。 澳大利亚统计局公布数据显示，三季度CPI环比上涨1.3%，高于市场预期的1.1%；同比由2.1%跃升至 3.2%，部分原因是基数效应及能源补贴的影响。 核心通胀修正均 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cyprus is projected to achieve a real GDP of €29.42 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.9% driven by strong performances in information and communication, hospitality and catering, construction, and wholesale and retail trade including motor vehicle repairs [1] Economic Growth - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its growth forecasts for Cyprus, predicting a growth rate of 2.9% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026 [1] - The strong economic growth in Cyprus is attributed to key sectors such as information and communication, hospitality, construction, and retail trade [1] Inflation and Unemployment - The inflation rate in Cyprus is expected to significantly decrease to 0.7% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026, which are the lowest levels in the Eurozone [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.5% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026, indicating a relatively low level of unemployment [1] Global Economic Context - The IMF forecasts a global economic growth rate of 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with developed economies expected to grow at a rate of 1.6% [1] - Ongoing trade tensions and uncertainties are anticipated to continue impacting the global economic outlook [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in spot gold prices is attributed to improved market risk appetite and easing global trade tensions, leading to reduced demand for safe-haven assets [1][3] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of October 27, spot gold is trading below $4083, currently at $4070.17 per ounce, down 0.99% from previous levels, with a high of $4108.19 and a low of $4053.29 [1] - Last week, COMEX gold futures fell by 0.45%, closing at $4126.90 per ounce [2] - The gold market experienced profit-taking after reaching historical highs, with a peak of $4382.3 before a significant pullback [4] Group 2: Economic and Political Factors - The U.S. government shutdown has led to significant disruptions in air traffic control, with over 5300 flights delayed on October 25 alone, exacerbating the situation due to staff shortages [2] - Economic forecasts indicate that if the government shutdown continues, the U.S. GDP could lose approximately $15 billion weekly [3] - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a 0.3% month-over-month increase in September, slightly below expectations, with an annual inflation rate of 3.0% [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent drop in gold prices is primarily due to reduced safe-haven demand stemming from improved U.S.-China trade relations and geopolitical risk alleviation [3] - While short-term fluctuations in gold prices are expected, the long-term outlook remains positive due to the potential for a Federal Reserve easing cycle and lingering risks [3]

Group 1 - The core inflation rate in the U.S. is expected to rise by 3.1% year-on-year in September, up from 2.9% in August, marking the highest level since May 2024 [1][3] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meetings in October and December, with a 97% probability of rates dropping from the current range of 4%-4.25% to 3.5%-3.75% by year-end [1][3] - The upcoming CPI report is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.4% for CPI and 0.3% for core CPI, with analysts noting that service prices, particularly housing, are cooling while goods inflation may accelerate due to tariffs [3][4] Group 2 - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is causing delays in the release of key economic data, making the September inflation data critical for Federal Reserve decision-making [4] - Analysts suggest that a significant upward surprise in the core CPI could lead to a reassessment of the likelihood of rate cuts in December, potentially strengthening the dollar against other major currencies [4] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for the dollar index (DXY), with key resistance levels identified at 99.50 and potential further gains towards 100.00 and 100.80 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain the Eurozone borrowing rate at 2% until the end of 2027, with a possibility of further actions in the future [1][5]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - A survey indicates that one-third of economists expect at least one more rate cut from the ECB, while 17% foresee potential rate hikes by the end of next year [1]. - The upcoming December monetary policy meeting is considered a critical juncture, as it will incorporate economic forecasts for 2028 [1]. - ECB officials, led by President Lagarde, express satisfaction with current inflation rates and economic resilience, deeming the monetary policy to be in an "ideal state" [2][10]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - Europe faces challenges from renewed US-China trade tensions, particularly in the semiconductor and rare earth sectors, complicating the economic landscape [2]. - France's fiscal difficulties are exacerbated by credit rating downgrades, while doubts arise regarding the effectiveness of Germany's large-scale infrastructure and defense investments [2]. - The potential delay of the new carbon emissions trading system may exert inflationary pressure in the coming years, alongside concerns about high asset valuations increasing the risk of market collapse [2]. Group 3: Inflation and Growth Risks - Current inflation in the Eurozone has risen to 2.2%, the fastest pace in five months, leading to concerns about upward price pressures [8]. - Economists predict that if inflation rates drop significantly below the 2% target, it could trigger further rate cuts [7][13]. - The balance of short-term risks to economic growth and inflation is perceived as roughly even, but long-term uncertainties remain high [8]. Group 4: Structural and Political Factors - Over 60% of respondents believe that the Eurozone's economic growth limitations stem from both cyclical and structural factors, with many attributing weakness primarily to structural issues [10]. - Supply chain disruptions, particularly in the automotive sector, pose significant challenges, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and export restrictions from China [10]. - Political instability in France and declining public support for Germany's leadership further complicate the economic outlook [10].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's central bank maintains a cautious stance on interest rate hikes due to low core inflation and uncertainties stemming from external factors like tariffs [1][3][4] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The current core inflation rate in Japan is reported at 2.7%, while the policy interest rate is only 0.5%, indicating a significant gap [4] - The former Bank of Japan governor, Shirakawa, emphasizes that the central bank's hesitance is largely due to potential negative reactions in the financial markets [3] - Concerns about accumulated risks in the financial system, which have persisted under a zero interest rate policy for the past 30 years, contribute to the cautious approach [3] Group 2: Economic Context - Shirakawa argues that Japan's prolonged economic stagnation is not solely due to deflation but is fundamentally linked to a declining population and the economy's adaptation to globalization and technological changes [4] - He suggests that Japan's GDP growth per capita has actually outpaced that of the United States, challenging the narrative that deflation is the primary issue [4] - The advice given to China is to focus on supply-side solutions rather than relying on monetary easing strategies [4]

希腊雅通社10月9日报道，希腊统计局数据显示，希腊9月通胀率显著放缓至1.9%，低于8月的2.9% 及2024年9月的2.9%。下降受益于能源价格下跌（电力和天然气下降3.7%和10.2%），部分食品价格有 所回落（如橄榄油下降37.1%）。然而，咖啡（19.8%）、巧克力（22.2%）、肉类（8.4%）、鱼类 （6.2%）、服装鞋类（5.2%）、住房租金（9.9%）、航空客运（12.6%）、度假套餐（6.7%）及健康保 险费（7%）的涨幅较为显著。 （原标题：希腊9月通胀率降至1.9%） ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Greece's economy will demonstrate strong resilience, with a projected GDP growth of 2% in 2025, nearly double the average growth rate of the Eurozone [1] Economic Growth - Greece's GDP is expected to grow by 2% in 2025 and maintain the same growth rate in 2026, indicating a robust economic recovery [1] - This growth rate is nearly double the average for the Eurozone, highlighting Greece's strong economic performance [1] Inflation - The IMF predicts an inflation rate of 3.1% for Greece in 2025, which is above the Eurozone average [1] - Inflation is expected to decrease to 2.5% in 2026, with the goal of reaching 2% by 2027 [1] Unemployment - The unemployment rate in Greece is projected to improve, with expectations of a decline to 9% this year and further down to 8.4% by 2026 [1] - This trend indicates a positive labor market outlook as the economy continues to recover [1]

Core Insights - The chief economist of the UK research institution CEPR, Dean Baker, suggests that the US September CPI data is likely to show a growth rate similar to that of August [1] Inflation Data Summary - In August, the energy component increased by 0.7%, and a similar rapid growth is expected for September [1] - The food component for households rose by 0.6% in August, with a potential slowdown in growth for September [1] - The core CPI month-on-month rate for September is anticipated to reach 0.3%, rounding up to possibly show 0.4% [1] - Both the overall and core CPI year-on-year rates for September are expected to be close to 3.0%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2.0% by a full percentage point [1] Implications for Federal Reserve - The inflation level may be less concerning than its direction of change for the Federal Reserve [1] - There is a likelihood of rising inflation rates until the full impact of tariffs is passed on to consumers [1] - The situation could become more complex if new tariffs are implemented affecting more industries [1] - It is difficult to envision inflation reaching the Federal Reserve's target in the short term unless a significant recession occurs [1]