法国央行：预计2025年HICP通胀率为1.0%（之前预估1.3%）。 ...

特朗普快速反应小组评美国CPI：5月通胀数据比预期的都低。自从特朗普总统上任以来，通胀率每个 月都低于经济学家的预期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that while consumers have not yet felt the pressure from tariffs, businesses may significantly increase prices in the coming months due to rising costs associated with tariffs [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - In May, the core inflation rate in the U.S. was below expectations for the fourth consecutive month, indicating that companies are managing to limit the extent to which tariff-related cost increases are passed on to consumers [1] - Following the report, U.S. Treasury yields rose, the dollar fell, and S&P 500 futures increased, suggesting a market reaction to the inflation data [1] - Traders believe there is a 75% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates before September, influenced by a series of lower-than-expected inflation data [1] Group 2: Tariff Impact on Businesses - Economists anticipate that businesses will raise prices more significantly in the coming months, partly due to the challenges of protecting consumers from increased costs if tariffs are raised [1] - The article suggests that the most punitive tariffs may have been temporarily paused, or that companies have so far absorbed the additional costs without passing them on to consumers [1]

机构分析师Curran评美国CPI：核心通胀率低于预期尤其值得注意。 ...

本月早些时候公布的数据显示，欧元区5月通胀率超预期下降至1.9%，为8个月来首次跌破2%，低于欧 洲央行的2%政策目标和经济学家预期的2%，也低于前值2.2%。统计数据显示，剔除能源、食品、烟草 和酒类的核心通胀率从4月的2.7%降至5月的2.3%，备受关注的服务业通胀也显著降温，从上个月的4% 降至3.2%。 在面临关税冲击的背景下，欧元区5月通胀率不及预期令人们担心欧元区未来通胀是否会显著低于2%。 与美联储官员担忧关税导致物价上涨相反，欧洲央行官员关注的是贸易战压制通胀的影响，因为关税将 抑制欧洲商品出口，同时欧元兑美元汇率上升、油价因全球经济增速放缓而走弱，都是欧洲通胀可能持 续走低的原因。 PGIM固定收益公司的欧洲首席经济学家Katharine Neiss此前指出，欧洲央行正从应对高通胀转向充满不 确定性的新阶段，这种不确定性堪比新冠疫情和俄乌战争，这意味着欧洲央行必须警惕通胀率在2%目 标上下波动的双重风险。 智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行首席经济学家Philip Lane周三表示，欧洲央行最近的降息将有助于通胀重 返2%的目标水平。他表示："这次降息有助于确保未来18个月预期中的通胀下行偏离是暂 ...

相对于美联储、欧洲央行在6月议息例会上的平淡表现，瑞士央行即将召开的6月例会可能会给投资者带 来不一样的感受。其背后最受关注的焦点在于：在时隔数年之后，瑞士央行会成为首个重返负利率的欧 美央行吗？ 这种猜测并非无稽之谈。瑞士联邦统计局最新公布的数据显示，该国5月份消费者价格指数同比下降 0.1%，这是自2021年3月瑞士经济受到新冠危机打击以来的最低水平。通胀率转为负值，不仅标志着瑞 士消费者物价指数已经降至0-2%的目标区间之外，也意味着瑞士央行本月晚些时候大幅降息的压力加 大。 6月例会或成焦点 荷兰国际集团(ING)经济学家蒙彼利埃预计，6月瑞士央行将降息25个基点，9月第二次降息25个基点。 蒙彼利埃表示，瑞士央行必须采取行动，将通胀预期维持在0-2%的目标区间内。"我认为瑞士央行会希 望将利率停在-0.25%……但风险在于，如果瑞士法郎变得更加昂贵，油价继续下跌，情况将进一步恶 化，瑞士央行将不得不进一步降息。"蒙彼利埃表示。 瑞银和瑞士盈丰银行的经济学家也预测，瑞士央行6月份将降息25个基点。瑞士经济协会首席经济学家 鲁道夫明施则预计，瑞士央行将在6月或9月一次性降息25个基点，然后停止降息。他认 ...

欧洲央行管委卡扎克斯：达到2%的通胀率"很有可能"需要"进一步的降息微调"。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：如果我们有足够的信心认为潜在通胀率接近2%或在2%附近波动，我们将会加 息。 ...

Group 1 - The establishment of a cold chain logistics network in China, described as a "four horizontal and four vertical" backbone channel network, aims to enhance the efficiency of logistics and improve market access for perishable goods [5] - The first batch of pilot cities for retail innovation and enhancement has been announced, indicating a push towards modernizing the retail sector [9] - The China Export-Import Bank has issued 460 billion yuan in loans to the foreign trade sector in the first five months, reflecting strong support for international trade [9] Group 2 - The construction of a modern industrial system is being accelerated in Jiangxi province, which is part of broader efforts to reform and develop the local economy [7] - The initiative "Two New" is being implemented in rural areas to stimulate new consumption vitality, indicating a focus on rural market development [4] - The completion of the concrete pouring for the central tower of the Xinjiang Qitai radio telescope project signifies advancements in scientific infrastructure [9]

欧洲央行管委Vujcic：通胀率在2%目标上下出现小幅偏离并不构成问题。即便通胀略微低于2%，欧洲 央行也不应"过度反应"。 ...