Core Insights - A Reuters survey indicates that 27 out of 28 economists expect the Bank of Mexico to lower the benchmark interest rate to 7.75% on August 7, while 1 economist predicts the rate will remain unchanged at 8.00% [1] Group 1 - The majority consensus among economists suggests a forthcoming interest rate cut by the Bank of Mexico [1] - The anticipated rate adjustment reflects a significant shift in monetary policy aimed at stimulating economic growth [1] - The lone dissenting opinion highlights uncertainty in the economic outlook, suggesting a cautious approach to rate changes [1]

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 200 basis points to 18% as inflation pressures decrease faster than expected [1] - The Central Bank aims to maintain a tight monetary policy to ensure inflation returns to target levels by 2026, with average benchmark rates projected between 18.8% to 19.6% in 2025 and 12.0% to 13.0% in 2026 [1] - The Central Bank forecasts that under the current monetary policy, the annual inflation rate will decline to 6.0% to 7.0% in 2025 and to 4.0% in 2026, stabilizing thereafter [1] Group 2 - Despite the decrease in inflation risks, the Central Bank notes that medium-term inflation risks remain higher than deflation risks, influenced by long-term deviations from balanced growth and external trade environment deterioration [2] - Geopolitical tensions are highlighted as a significant source of uncertainty that could impact inflation through changes in the ruble exchange rate [2] - The Central Bank previously reduced the benchmark rate from a historical high of 21% to 20% on June 6, 2023, and plans to discuss the next rate level in a meeting on September 12 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate to 18.00%, aligning with market expectations and down from the previous rate of 20% [1] Group 1 - The decision to reduce the interest rate reflects the Central Bank's response to economic conditions [1] - The new rate of 18.00% is aimed at stimulating economic growth and addressing inflation concerns [1] - This adjustment marks a significant shift in monetary policy as the Central Bank seeks to balance economic stability and growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around the assessment of monetary supply tightness and the appropriate benchmark interest rate for the Federal Reserve has intensified as excess liquidity in the U.S. financial system is expected to continue shrinking in the coming months [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Funds Rate Limitations - Several experts, including Cleveland Fed President Mester and JPMorgan analyst Teresa Ho, have pointed out the limitations of the federal funds rate as a measure of liquidity, suggesting that the Fed should consider alternative tools [1][3]. - The federal funds market, once a key indicator of financing conditions, has seen a significant decline in daily trading volume, now averaging about $110 billion, which is only 0.5% of commercial bank assets, compared to 2% before 2008 [1]. - The overnight general collateral repurchase agreement rate has become a more significant pricing basis for benchmark rates, with daily trading volumes reaching several trillion dollars [1]. Group 2: Shift in Monetary Policy Tools - The true levers of monetary control have shifted to a series of rates set directly by the Fed, including the Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB), rather than relying solely on the federal funds rate [3][4]. - The federal funds rate has remained relatively stable at 4.33% as of July 23, despite adjustments to policy rates, indicating a disconnect from actual market dynamics [3][4]. - Experts argue that the federal funds rate is no longer at the core of monetary market dynamics, raising concerns about its ability to signal potential liquidity pressures [3][4]. Group 3: Current Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The market is facing potential liquidity pressures as the U.S. Treasury slows cash reserve rebuilding, with expectations that the use of reverse repo tools may approach zero in September [5][7]. - Historical context shows that in 2019, the Fed's balance sheet reduction led to significant rate spikes due to insufficient bank reserves, highlighting the importance of monitoring reserve levels [5]. - Experts suggest that alternative indicators, such as the three-party general collateral rate (TGCR), may better reflect real funding flows and should be considered as replacements for the federal funds rate [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Egypt unexpectedly maintained the benchmark interest rate at 24%, contrary to market expectations of a reduction to 23% [1] Group 1 - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged indicates a cautious approach by the Central Bank in response to economic conditions [1] - Market analysts had anticipated a rate cut, reflecting expectations of easing inflationary pressures [1] - The current rate of 24% remains one of the highest in the world, highlighting the ongoing challenges in the Egyptian economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations after six consecutive meetings of rate cuts [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The decision to maintain the interest rate at 3.25% reflects a pause in the recent trend of rate reductions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.50% during the upcoming meeting on July 10, but is anticipated to resume rate cuts in the following month to support economic growth amid high household debt levels [1] Economic Indicators - A survey of 33 economists indicates a consensus on the Bank of Korea's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged [1] - In May, mortgage loans increased by 5.6 trillion KRW (approximately 4.1 billion USD), surpassing the 4.8 trillion KRW recorded in April [1] - The rise in mortgage loans may hinder the central bank's ability to continue cutting rates, although it remains on a generally accommodative path [1]

Group 1 - The central bank of Poland has lowered the benchmark interest rate to 5.00%, contrary to previous forecasts which predicted it would remain unchanged at 5.25% [1]

Core Viewpoint - A Reuters survey indicates that 10 out of 11 economists expect the Bank of Israel to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.5% on Monday, while one economist anticipates a 25 basis point cut to 4.25% [1] Group 1 - 10 out of 11 economists predict the Bank of Israel will keep the interest rate unchanged at 4.5% [1] - 1 economist forecasts a reduction of 25 basis points to 4.25% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that a majority of economists expect the Brazilian central bank to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 14.75% during the meeting on June 18, while a minority anticipates a 25 basis point increase [1] Group 2 - Out of 39 economists surveyed, 27 believe the interest rate will remain unchanged [1] - 12 economists predict a rate hike of 25 basis points [1]