Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the Renminbi (RMB) continues, with both onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates surpassing 7.17, marking the highest level since November 2024 [1][2]. Exchange Rate Performance - As of May 26, the onshore RMB closed at 7.1843, up 52 points from the previous trading day, with an intraday high of 7.1674. The offshore RMB reached a high of 7.1616, averaging 7.17. In May, the onshore RMB rose by 906 basis points, while the offshore RMB increased by over 1,000 points [1]. - The People's Bank of China set the RMB to USD central parity rate at 7.1833 on May 26, a significant increase of 86 points, the largest adjustment since January of this year [1]. Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar, driven by concerns over the US fiscal health and the impact of proposed tariffs by the Trump administration [2][3]. - Domestic macroeconomic policies, including interest rate cuts and accelerated fiscal spending, have bolstered the resilience of the Chinese economy against external fluctuations, providing internal support for the RMB [2]. Market Dynamics - Analysts note that the appreciation of the RMB is influenced by the strengthening of other Asian currencies, such as the Korean won, and the easing of external depreciation pressures due to positive developments in US-China trade talks [3]. - The narrowing of the exchange rate gap between onshore and offshore RMB indicates strong motivation among overseas institutions to support RMB appreciation [3]. Economic Implications - Continuous RMB appreciation can enhance its attractiveness and reflect market confidence in the Chinese economy, potentially benefiting the stock market. However, it may also reduce the competitiveness of export goods, impacting domestic employment [3]. - Maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate is crucial, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and reducing reliance on exports, as excessive appreciation or depreciation could destabilize the Chinese economic fundamentals [3][4]. Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the RMB will largely depend on the progress of US-China trade negotiations and the performance of the US dollar. The complexity of resolving high tariff issues suggests that RMB fluctuations will continue, but the likelihood of sustained unilateral appreciation is low [4]. - The RMB is expected to experience a dual-directional fluctuation process against the dollar, with relatively smaller amplitude compared to other major currencies, indicating a more stable outlook [4].

智通财经5月26日电，在岸人民币兑美元收盘报7.1843，较上一交易日上涨52点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline of the US dollar index and the appreciation of the Chinese yuan, highlighting the underlying factors and potential implications for the market. Group 1: US Dollar Index - The US dollar index has dropped approximately 0.3%, with a year-to-date decline of 8.92% [2] - The dollar index opened at 99.0858 and reached a low of 98.6921, indicating a significant downward trend [2] - The euro and British pound have strengthened against the dollar, with the pound reaching its highest level since February 2022 [2] Group 2: Chinese Yuan Performance - The onshore and offshore yuan have both surged, with the offshore yuan breaking the 7.17 mark, reaching a high of 7.1648, the highest since December 2024 [3][4] - The central parity rate of the yuan against the dollar was adjusted up by 86 basis points to 7.1833, marking the highest since April 2 [4] - Over the past month, the dollar to offshore yuan exchange rate has decreased from 7.42 to a low of 7.1616, reflecting a rise of over 2500 basis points [4] Group 3: Factors Influencing Currency Movements - Six key reasons for the yuan's appreciation include improved trade conditions, a weakening dollar, inflow of safe-haven capital, recovery of the Chinese economy, positive policy expectations, and stable exchange rate pricing mechanisms [6] - A report from China International Capital Corporation suggests that if concerns about the US fiscal deficit persist, the yuan may continue to benefit from a weaker dollar, maintaining a moderately strong trend in the short term [7] Group 4: Economic Uncertainty and Market Outlook - The US economy faces uncertainty due to inflation concerns and potential delays in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with officials indicating that a clearer economic picture may take several months to emerge [9][10] - Analysts warn that high tariffs could negatively impact corporate earnings, with estimates suggesting a 3% decline in overall earnings due to a 10% tariff affecting 30%-40% of revenues from overseas for S&P 500 companies [10] - There are concerns that the optimistic earnings forecasts for S&P 500 companies may need to be revised downward, potentially affecting stock prices [10]

Currency Exchange Rates - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index fell to 96.2, down 0.5% week-on-week; the BIS RMB exchange rate index dropped to 101.79, down 0.57%, marking a new low since September 2023; the SDR RMB exchange rate index decreased to 91, down 0.42% [1] - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.1895, up 142 basis points for the week, reaching a new high since November 8 of the previous year; the offshore RMB against the USD rose by 376 basis points, closing at 7.1722 [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. 20-year Treasury bond auction results were poor, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.46, the lowest since February of this year; the yield reached 5.047%, marking the second time it exceeded 5% [3] - The Eurozone's composite PMI fell to 49.5, indicating economic contraction, with the services PMI dropping to 48.9, the lowest since January 2024 [4] Foreign Investment and Trade - In April 2025, foreign capital net purchases of domestic bonds reached $10.9 billion, indicating a high level of foreign investment; foreign investment in domestic stocks turned into net buying in late April [2] - China's trade with Central and Eastern European countries reached 329.68 billion yuan in the first four months of this year, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, setting a historical high for the same period [6] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced a simultaneous decrease in loan and deposit rates, with the one-year and five-year LPR down by 10 basis points to 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively [7] - The PBOC will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, resulting in a net injection of 375 billion yuan for the third consecutive month [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides the interbank foreign exchange market's RMB exchange rate midpoint for May 26, 2025, highlighting fluctuations against various currencies, indicating a general trend of RMB appreciation against the US dollar and depreciation against the Malaysian ringgit [1] Currency Exchange Rates Summary - USD/RMB is reported at 7.1833, down 86 points, indicating RMB appreciation [1] - EUR/RMB is reported at 8.1676, up 407 points, indicating EUR depreciation against RMB [1] - HKD/RMB is reported at 0.91689, down 17.1 points, indicating RMB appreciation [1] - GBP/RMB is reported at 9.7139, up 478 points, indicating GBP depreciation against RMB [1] - AUD/RMB is reported at 4.6661, up 469 points, indicating AUD depreciation against RMB [1] - CAD/RMB is reported at 5.2262, up 279 points, indicating CAD depreciation against RMB [1] - 100 JPY/RMB is reported at 5.0252, up 185 points, indicating JPY depreciation against RMB [1] - RMB/RUB is reported at 11.0730, up 94 points, indicating RUB depreciation against RMB [1] - NZD/RMB is reported at 4.2997, up 476 points, indicating NZD depreciation against RMB [1] - RMB/MYR is reported at 0.5891, down 42.3 points, indicating RMB depreciation [1] - CHF/RMB is reported at 8.7286, up 351 points, indicating CHF depreciation against RMB [1] - SGD/RMB is reported at 5.5896, up 167 points, indicating SGD depreciation against RMB [1]

Core Viewpoint - The easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. is expected to support the resilience of foreign trade in the second quarter, but the future of economic negotiations remains uncertain due to escalating strategic competition between the two countries [1][12]. Group 1: Trade and Economic Impact - In April, China's exports to the U.S. decreased by 21% year-on-year, while imports fell by 14%, indicating a significant impact from the tariffs, but the overall trade balance was not completely disrupted [2]. - China's overall export growth in April was 8.1%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 2.0%, supported by increased exports to non-U.S. countries, such as a 21% increase to ASEAN [2]. - The industrial added value in April grew by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 5.5%, driven by resilient foreign trade [2]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Structural Changes - The high-tech manufacturing and digital product sectors showed strong performance, with year-on-year growth rates of 10% for both categories, indicating a shift towards industrial upgrading [3]. - Investment in high-tech services increased by 11.3% year-on-year from January to April, with information services seeing a remarkable 40.6% growth [3]. Group 3: Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 5.8% year-on-year from January to April, supported by accelerated fiscal policies [4]. - Local government special bonds issuance reached 1.19 trillion yuan, a 65% increase year-on-year, indicating a proactive approach to funding infrastructure projects [4]. Group 4: Financial Market Resilience - The Chinese financial market demonstrated strong resilience, with the A-share market rebounding by 7.1% from its low in April, and the onshore and offshore RMB appreciating by 1.2% and 2.2% respectively [5][6]. - Despite the pressures from U.S. tariffs, foreign capital continued to show interest in Chinese assets, with net inflows into domestic bonds and stocks [6]. Group 5: Currency and Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB appreciated against the USD, but its real effective exchange rate index fell by 2.9% in April, indicating a passive appreciation that does not harm export competitiveness [8]. - The foreign exchange market remained stable, with banks reporting a surplus in foreign exchange settlement and sales, driven by increased willingness to settle in RMB [7]. Group 6: Consumer and Real Estate Market Trends - Consumer spending showed signs of weakness, with retail sales growth slowing to 5.1% in April, below market expectations, largely due to declining automobile sales [10]. - The real estate market faced challenges, with sales volume and value declining by 2.1% and 6.7% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a weakening demand [11].

今年5月以来，汇率市场多空博弈态势加剧。以美元兑离岸人民币汇率为例，从4月中上旬的1美元兑7.42元人民币一路震荡下跌。5月21日，美元兑离岸人民 币再度跌破7.2元关口。 在这背后，中美贸易紧张局势缓和、国内释放经济稳增长信号、美联储政策转向预期升温。市场对于中国经济和资产的信心显著提升，支撑人民币汇率的因 素正在积聚。 中美谈判意外破冰，市场迎来"减压时刻" 在全球贸易保护主义阴云笼罩的背景下，5月12日，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》一经发布，市场为之振奋。这份声明不仅标志着此次会谈取得了突破 性进展，更被市场视为全球贸易摩擦降温的关键信号。 贸易协议的走向主导着市场情绪并影响着人民币汇率的走势。渣打中国宏观策略主管刘洁就表示，短期美元对人民币有望下行，人民币中间价不排除进一步 调强至7.17-7.18，但未来人民币汇率仍将取决于中国经济状况和贸易谈判进展。 LPR、存款利率同步下调，国内政策支持增强 5月20日，新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）出炉，1年期LPR降至3%，5年期以上LPR降至3.5%，均较上一期下降10个基点，这是今年以来LPR首次下降。 同日，六大国有银行、招商银行等多家银行宣布下调 ...

贸易与金融汇率背离：CFETS指数等贸易汇率贬值5.2%左右，而人民币对美元金融汇率基本稳定，形成"稳定资本流动、促进出口"的合意轨迹。 二、影响人民币汇率的关键因素 关税与贸易顺差：一季度中国货物贸易顺差1.96万亿元，4月单月顺差7000亿元，出口韧性显著，但美国关税的全面影响尚未完全显现，需警惕后续次级关 税影响。 中美利率倒挂：中美10年期国债收益率倒挂幅度超230个基点，4月8-9日达260个基点，加剧汇率波动压力，但中国经济基本面弱化倒挂影响。 跨境资本流动：一季度非银行部门跨境资金净流入517亿美元，货物贸易资金流入2063亿美元，外资增持人民币债券，资本流动平稳支撑汇率。 一、关税背景下人民币汇率走势特征 2025年特x普政府对中国商品实施罕见的阶梯式加税，从2月1日的10%快速升至4月10日的125%，中国同步对等反制。这一政策对人民币汇率产生显著影 响： 突发性贬值冲击：4月8日美方加税至84%，离岸人民币汇率盘中触及7.4295，在岸市场次日触及7.3506，但美元指数波动有限，显示关税对人民币的直接冲 击。 美元超调与人民币稳定：今年以来美元指数贬值7.4%，最大跌幅达9.3%，但人民 ...

Group 1 - The onshore Chinese yuan (CNY) closed at 7.2031 against the US dollar, appreciating by 134 points compared to the previous night session [1] - The trading volume for the yuan was reported at 51.394 billion USD [1]

Group 1: Offshore RMB Market Overview - As of March 2025, Hong Kong's offshore RMB deposits totaled 9,598.48 billion RMB, a decrease of 7.3% month-on-month but an increase of 1.6% year-on-year[6] - The total RMB remittances related to cross-border trade settlements reached 11,839.76 billion RMB, increasing by 11.3% month-on-month but decreasing by 5.2% year-on-year[6] - The RMB RTGS clearing amount in March was 67.0 trillion RMB, up 12.6% month-on-month, marking the highest level in seven months[6] Group 2: Currency and Interest Rate Trends - The average USD index in April was 100.66, down 3.33% from March, with a month-end value of 99.64, reflecting a 4.37% decline[5] - The USD/CNY and USD/CNH exchange rates showed slight decreases of 0.16% and 0.05% respectively by the end of April, with average rates of 7.3025 and 7.3048[5] - The CNH HIBOR rates for overnight, 1-month, and 3-month periods averaged 1.40%, 1.88%, and 1.99% respectively, showing declines of 26.2 basis points, 14.9 basis points, and 17.2 basis points month-on-month[17] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The offshore RMB bond issuance in April totaled 306.5 billion RMB, a decrease of 30.8% month-on-month and 13.1% year-on-year[30] - The offshore RMB market is expected to see increased activity in bond financing due to improved growth confidence from easing trade tensions and supportive monetary policies[33] - The market sentiment towards the RMB is optimistic, with expectations of a stronger RMB exchange rate amid favorable trade negotiations and economic data[12]