[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 8 Jun 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 宽幅震荡升级在即，继续回避微盘股和新消费风险 Broad Consolidation About to Intensify; Remain Cautious on Micro-Caps and New Consumer Names 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们认为当前市场处于宽幅震荡中，回调仍未结束，尤其需要规避短期过热的A股小微盘股及港股新消费板 块。本周一，受中美贸易摩擦影响，恒生指数早盘一度跌近2.7%，恒生科技最多跌3.1%，两者从5月高点分别累计 回撤5.2%、8.9%。这波下跌充分释放了市场对中美贸易不确定性的担忧，因此市场进入宽幅震荡以来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading enterprise in the high-end forming machine tool and intelligent sorting equipment industry, with a focus on the nuclear fusion sector, which is expected to drive its growth trajectory in the coming years [1][3]. Group 1: Nuclear Fusion Industry Developments - The company has accelerated its involvement in nuclear fusion projects, winning contracts for key components such as vacuum chambers and gravity supports, indicating a strong order pipeline [1][2]. - The domestic nuclear fusion industry is projected to grow rapidly, with significant projects like CFEDR and various hybrid reactors expected to commence in the near future, positioning the company to benefit from this growth [2][3]. - Global nuclear fusion initiatives, including the ITER project and private sector efforts in the U.S. and Japan, highlight the increasing international focus on fusion energy, which may create additional opportunities for the company [2][3]. Group 2: Core Business Performance - The company is recognized as a champion in the forming machine tool sector, with products utilized across various industries including automotive, aerospace, and defense, showing a robust recovery in its core business [3][4]. - The hydraulic press segment has seen significant advancements, particularly in applications related to new energy vehicles, contributing to an increase in market share [3][4]. - The mechanical press segment is experiencing growth due to rising demand from the new energy vehicle sector and domestic brands, with a notable increase in orders for high-end automated pressure machines [4]. Group 3: Intelligent Sorting Equipment - The company is a pioneer in the optical sorting equipment market, with a strong focus on applications in food safety and recycling, leading to a substantial increase in revenue from this segment [4]. - The revenue from the color sorting machine business is projected to grow significantly, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 26.2% from 2021 to 2024 [4]. Group 4: Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 24.8 billion, 28.4 billion, and 33.5 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 0.37 billion, 1.34 billion, and 2.58 billion [5]. - The current valuation reflects the early-stage development of the nuclear fusion industry, suggesting substantial future growth potential [5][6].

Group 1: Nuclear Power Revenue Outlook - The company expects steady growth in nuclear power revenue for 2025, supported by sufficient orders and favorable policies [2] - The revenue recognition for nuclear power is based on contract delivery milestones, with plans to enhance production planning and expand capacity [2] Group 2: Market Value Management - The company has established a comprehensive market value management framework, including a management system and task ledger [2] - The focus is on aligning market value with intrinsic value through capital operations and investor relations optimization [2] Group 3: Cost Control Measures - The company is implementing several cost control measures to improve profit margins, including optimizing product design and reducing material weight [3][4] - Strategies include controlling procurement and transportation costs, managing inventory effectively, and optimizing production processes [4] Group 4: Nuclear Fusion Technology - The company has a complete range of industrial valve products and is actively accumulating technology for fusion reactors [4] - There is a strong capability for independent development and supply of fusion-related valves [4] Group 5: Nuclear Power Capacity Expansion - The company’s nuclear power capacity expansion is divided into three phases, with the first two phases completed [5] - Current capacity can support the production of valves for 8 reactor units, expected to increase to 10 units after the third phase completion [5] Group 6: Recent Performance and Future Strategy - The company reported significant year-on-year growth in revenue and total profit in Q1 2025, maintaining a stable operational trend [5] - Future strategic planning focuses on becoming a world-class equipment manufacturing enterprise, enhancing core competitiveness, and expanding into upstream and downstream industries [5][6]

Core Insights - Chuangjiang New Materials (002171) reported that its subsidiary, Dingli Technology, has developed tantalum carbide and silicon carbide coating technologies that significantly enhance material properties such as corrosion resistance, thermal uniformity, and neutron irradiation resistance, which are critical for core components like the first wall and divertor in nuclear fusion applications [1] Company Developments - Dingli Technology provides tungsten alloy ultra-high temperature sintering equipment and amorphous alloy soldering materials, along with technical support for the manufacturing of first wall materials [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's EAST large scientific device has achieved a key technology breakthrough in steady-state high-parameter plasma, winning the Anhui Provincial Science and Technology Progress Award [1] - The recovery in downstream demand and the advancement of nuclear fusion projects are expected to drive growth across various business segments [1] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue and gross margin have been adjusted downward based on industry demand, with EPS for 2025 and 2026 revised to 1.60 and 1.97 yuan respectively, and a new EPS for 2027 set at 2.41 yuan [2] - The target price is set at 67.20 yuan, corresponding to a 42x PE for 2025, maintaining the "Buy" rating [2] Key Financial Information - Projected revenue (in million yuan) for 2023A to 2027E: 4,159, 4,612, 6,028, 7,337, 8,839, with growth rates of -1.6%, 10.9%, 30.7%, 21.7%, and 20.5% respectively [3] - Projected net profit attributable to the parent company (in million yuan) for 2023A to 2027E: 752, 801, 1,042, 1,282, 1,567, with growth rates of -30.3%, 6.4%, 30.1%, 23.0%, and 22.3% respectively [3] - Projected EPS for 2023A to 2027E: 1.16, 1.23, 1.60, 1.97, 2.41 [3] - Projected gross margin for 2023A to 2027E: 31.9%, 33.6%, 33.9%, 34.7%, 35.4% [3] Business Developments - The company has achieved significant breakthroughs in superconducting materials, with multiple projects achieving mass supply, including superconducting wire for the EAST device and the domestic nuclear fusion CRAFT project [9] - The high-performance high-temperature alloy technology has seen key innovations, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the industry [9] - The high-end titanium alloy market is expanding, with successful development of new specifications and production technologies [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 67.20 CNY, based on a 42x PE ratio for 2025 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has received the Anhui Provincial Science and Technology Progress Award for its key technology and engineering application results related to the EAST large scientific device, indicating strong technological capabilities [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in downstream demand and advancements in nuclear fusion projects, which may lead to synchronized growth across its various business segments [1]. Financial Forecast and Performance - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 6,028 million CNY and 7,337 million CNY, respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 30.7% and 21.7% [3]. - The adjusted EPS for 2025 is forecasted at 1.60 CNY, with further increases to 1.97 CNY in 2026 and 2.41 CNY in 2027 [2][3]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 31.9% in 2023 to 35.4% by 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [3]. Business Segments and Innovations - The superconducting materials business is globally leading, with multiple projects achieving bulk supply, including superconducting wire materials for domestic nuclear fusion projects [9]. - Significant breakthroughs in high-performance high-temperature alloy technology have been achieved, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the industry [9]. - The high-end titanium alloy market is expanding, with the company developing new titanium alloy products for various sectors, including marine and nuclear industries [9].

Group 1: Market Opportunities and Competitive Advantages - The carbon-ceramic brake technology is expected to see significant market growth driven by the electric vehicle sector, with the company holding competitive advantages in this field due to its high-strength, high-temperature resistance, corrosion resistance, lightweight, and long lifespan characteristics of carbon-ceramic brake discs [1] - The subsidiary Tian Niao High-tech is a leading domestic manufacturer of carbon fiber preforms, with substantial technical accumulation and advantages in the production of carbon brake preforms, which have already achieved mass sales [2] - The company has successfully developed carbon-ceramic brake preforms and is collaborating with domestic automotive manufacturers for bench testing, indicating a strong market potential [2] Group 2: Product Applications and Innovations - Jiangsu Tian Niao's carbon fiber products are widely used in strategic industries such as aerospace, defense, new energy, and semiconductors, with core products including special fiber preforms [2] - The subsidiary Xin Hai Gao Dao produces a variety of copper products that are extensively applied in electric vehicle wiring, photovoltaic systems, and 5G base station equipment, showcasing the company's diverse product applications [3] - The company has developed advanced technologies for recycling used lithium batteries and other materials, indicating a commitment to sustainability and innovation in the energy sector [3] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The subsidiary Ding Li Technology has developed tantalum carbide (TaC) and silicon carbide (SiC) coating technologies that enhance material properties essential for nuclear fusion applications, demonstrating the company's capability in advanced materials [3] - Ding Li Technology has also made significant progress in organic solid waste continuous pyrolysis technology, which is applicable in the recycling of various materials, including used lithium batteries and carbon fiber wind turbine blades [3] Group 4: Investor Relations and Engagement - The investor relations activities included on-site visits and discussions with key personnel, such as the CFO and board secretary, indicating a proactive approach to engaging with investors [1] - The company has maintained a detailed record of investor interactions, showcasing transparency and commitment to stakeholder communication [4]

Group 1: Fund Market Developments - A total of 36 new funds were launched this week, with floating rate funds like ICBC Hongyu Return and others being the highlights [1] - The total issuance of newly established funds has exceeded 410 billion units, with equity funds accounting for 166.34 billion units, representing 39.93% of the total [1] - Public funds have distributed nearly 90 billion yuan in dividends this year, marking a significant increase compared to the same period last year, with equity funds showing a sevenfold increase in dividend amounts [1] Group 2: Private Fund Industry Trends - 520 private fund management institutions have been deregistered this year, indicating a rapid cleanup of the industry amid strict regulations [2] - The average yield of private bond products has dropped significantly to below 1.8%, contrasting sharply with last year's average of 7.91% [2] - Many private fund managers are shifting strategies towards cross-border composite products to capture market spreads and enhance returns [2] Group 3: Corporate Restructuring and Investments - The China Weaponry Equipment Group has been restructured, with its automotive business becoming an independent central enterprise [3] - Amazon plans to invest $10 billion in a new data center in North Carolina to expand its AI infrastructure, creating 500 jobs in the process [4] - Shanghai Hejing is focusing on the production of 12-inch 55nm CIS epitaxial wafers, with expansion projects underway [6] Group 4: Stock Market and Economic Indicators - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.22% and the Nasdaq up 0.32%, amid concerns over economic slowdown [10] - US Treasury yields fell sharply, with the 10-year yield dropping over 10 basis points, reflecting rising expectations for interest rate cuts [11] - Gold prices have shown an upward trend, while oil prices experienced a temporary decline due to Saudi Arabia's push for increased production [11]

德国马克斯·普朗克等离子体物理研究所（IPP）团队3日宣布，在此前结束的任务期间，Wendelstein7-X （W7-X）实验项目创下了一项新的世界纪录：成功地维持了长等离子体放电三重积长达43秒的新峰 值。这标志着W7-X超越了其他类型的磁约束装置在这方面的表现，同时，该成果也为未来聚变电站的 发展提供了重要技术支持。相关研究发表于美国科学促进会网站。 ...

Strategic Metals - The Chinese government is enhancing control over strategic mineral exports to prevent illegal outflow, with a focus on various strategic metals such as rare earths, cobalt, and tungsten [1] - Analysts from Zheshang Securities and CITIC Securities suggest that the valuation of strategic metals is expected to rise due to resource scarcity and increasing demand from sectors like new energy and military [1] Beer Industry - In the first four months of 2025, China's beer production from large enterprises decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, but April saw a 4.8% increase compared to the previous year, indicating a recovery trend [2] - Analysts expect the beer industry to improve in 2024, driven by increased consumption in dining channels and low inventory levels [2] Smart Cleaning Industry - The launch of MOVA's lawn mowers in Europe has gained significant market traction, achieving top sales rankings on Amazon in France and Germany [3] - The smart cleaning industry is entering a phase of technological commercialization and policy support, with advancements in AI and sensor technology enhancing operational efficiency [3] Toy Industry - Miniso is planning to spin off its TOPTOY brand for an IPO in Hong Kong, following the success of similar companies like Pop Mart [4] - The rapid expansion of TOPTOY, which has grown to 280 stores, reflects Miniso's commitment to the trendy toy market [4] Insurance Industry - The insurance sector reported a premium income of 25,955 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025, a 2.3% increase year-on-year, with a notable 9.6% growth in April [5] - The market acceptance of dividend insurance products is rising, contributing to the industry's growth [5] Exoskeleton Robots - The development of a new lower-limb exoskeleton robot by the Chinese Academy of Sciences aims to assist patients with lower limb paralysis, showing promising results in clinical trials [6] - The exoskeleton robot market is transitioning from medical applications to consumer markets, driven by technological advancements and cost reductions [6] Aviation Industry - China is considering a significant order for Airbus aircraft, potentially ranging from 200 to 500 units, which could become the largest aircraft purchase in Chinese aviation history [7] - The order is expected to benefit Airbus at a time when Boeing faces challenges in the Chinese market due to ongoing trade tensions [7] Macro and Industry News - The central government plans to support urban renewal actions in 20 cities, including Beijing and Tianjin [8] - The National Energy Administration is initiating pilot projects for new power system construction [9] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is focusing on promoting the development of the artificial intelligence industry [10]