Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No information provided Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 1. Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) changed from 172 on 10/10 to -2970 on 11/11, with a daily change of -2964 [3]. - The East China basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse) changed from 72 on 10/10 to -3050 on 11/11, with a daily change of -3184 [3]. - The South China basis (Foshan Warehouse) changed from 62 on 10/10 to -3050 on 11/11, with a daily change of -3244 [3]. - The 12 - 01 spread changed from 28 on 10/10 to 1 on 11/11, with a daily change of 3 [3]. - The 12 - 03 spread changed from 6 on 10/10 to -39 on 11/11, with a daily change of 7 [3]. - The 01 - 02 spread changed from -4 on 10/10 to -14 on 11/11, with a daily change of 3 [3]. 2. BU Main Contract - The BU main contract (01) price changed from 3328 on 10/10 to 3050 on 11/11, with a daily change of 14 [3]. - The trading volume changed from 323321 on 10/10 to 314162 on 11/11, with a daily change of -8556 [3]. - The open interest changed from 322594 on 10/10 to 339671 on 11/11, with a daily change of -11390 [3]. - The warehouse receipts remained at 4690 from 11/5 to 11/11 [3]. 3. Spot Market - Brent crude oil price changed from 62.7 on 10/10 to 64.1 on 11/11, with a daily change of 0.4 [3]. - Jingbo's spot price changed from 3540 on 10/10 to 0 on 11/11, with a daily change of -2990 [3]. - Hongrun's spot price changed from 3420 on 10/10 to 0 on 11/11, with a daily change of -2950 [3]. - Zhenjiang Warehouse's spot price changed from 3400 on 10/10 to 0 on 11/11, with a daily change of -3170 [3]. - Foshan Warehouse's spot price changed from 3390 on 10/10 to 0 on 11/11, with a daily change of -3230 [3]. 4. Profit - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit changed from 492 on 10/10 to 68 on 11/11, with a daily change of -28 [3]. - The comprehensive profit of Ma Rui - type refineries changed from 910 on 10/10 to -757 on 11/11, with a daily change of -1450 [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic civil LPG market may show a pattern where the south is stronger than the north, with an overall expectation of a peak season; the contraction of PDH profits may lead to a decline in propane demand, and the current domestic market valuation is high and may fall. The international propane market has a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to the weather and cold snaps in the United States [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Price and Basis Information - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4374 (+33), in Shandong 4360 (+0), and in South China 4440 (+50). The price of etherified C4 was 4520 (-90). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with the basis changing by 26 (+63) daily, and the December - January spread at 72 (-16). FEI was 490 (-14) and CP was 463 (-7) dollars per ton [1] - The PG main contract fluctuated. The basis was 102 (+116), the December - January spread was 72 (-8). The number of warehouse receipts was 4444 (+250). The cheapest delivery product was East China civil LPG at 4374; Shandong was 4380 (+80), East China 4374 (+95), and South China 4450 (+50). Shandong etherified C4 was 4500 (+80) [1] Market Spread and Margin Information - The external market price declined; the domestic - foreign spread strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 137 (+4), PG - FEI to 113 (+15.6); FEI - MB to 153 (-1.8). The arrival discount of propane in East China was 85 US dollars (+6), and the freight was basically flat. The FEI - MOPI spread widened, and the switching window remained open, with the latest at -73 (-6) [1] - The naphtha crack spread changed little and was at a relatively high level this year. The profit of PDH to propylene in Shandong declined significantly (some plants stopped production). The profit of alkylation plants rebounded. The production gross profit of MTBE changed little, and the export profit fluctuated [1] Supply and Demand and Inventory Information - Domestic production decreased, and factory inventories were basically flat; the arrival potential was limited, the terminal sales improved, and the port inventory decreased. The PDH operating rate was 75.49% (+1.6), as Liuhua Yiyuan operated at full capacity, while Binhuahua, Xintai, and Haiwei successively stopped production [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report name: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Release date: November 10, 2025 [5] - Research team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [5] Group 2: Basis and Calendar Spread Daily Changes - **Basis**: The Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) was 12 on November 7, the East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) was 142 with a daily change of -39, and the South China basis (Foshan warehouse) was 182 [3]. - **Calendar Spread**: The 12 - 01 spread was 4 with a daily change of -5, the 12 - 03 spread was -38 with a daily change of -15, and the 01 - 02 spread was -16 with a daily change of -5 [3]. Group 3: Futures Contract Data Daily Changes - **BU Main Contract (01)**: The price was 3048 on November 7, a decrease of 61 from the previous day [3]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume was 384,312 on November 7, an increase of 89,279 from the previous day [3]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest was 351,629 on November 7, an increase of 14,837 from the previous day [3]. Group 4: Spot Price Daily Changes - **Brent Crude (Jingbo)**: The price was 3030 on November 7, a decrease of 50 from the previous day [3]. - **Hongrun**: The price was 2980 on November 7, a decrease of 60 from the previous day [3]. - **Zhenjiang Warehouse**: The price was 3190 on November 7, a decrease of 100 from the previous day [3]. - **Foshan Warehouse**: The price was 3230 on November 7, a decrease of 60 from the previous day [3]. Group 5: Profit Daily Changes - **Asphalt - Ma Rui Profit**: The profit was 143 on November 7, a decrease of 36 from the previous day [3]. - **Ma Rui - Type Refinery Comprehensive Profit**: The profit was 714 on November 7, a decrease of 14 from the previous day [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market has support below and pressure above in the near term. There is continuous pressure from new cotton supply, but yarn mills are actively replenishing their inventories. In the long term, policies and weather are the key factors. The strategies are to conduct reverse arbitrage on the January - May spread when prices are high and to layout long positions for distant - month contracts when prices are low [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Data Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 on November 5 was 13615, up 80 (0.59%) from November 4; CF05 was 13620, up 65 (0.48%); CF01 - 05 was - 5, up 15 from the previous day [3] Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang on November 5, the price was 14627, down 13 (-0.09%); in Henan it was 14856, down 34 (-0.23%); in Shandong it was 14873, unchanged (0.00%); Xinjiang - main continuous basis was 1012, down 93 [3] Domestic Yarn Futures and Spot - Domestic yarn futures CY on November 5 was 19820, up 25 (0.13%); domestic yarn spot C32S price index was 20520, unchanged (0.00%) [3] US Cotton Spot - CT (USD/磅) was unchanged at 65.15; the arrival price was 75.20, down 0.3 (-0.40%); 1% quota pick - up price was 13158, down 51 (-0.39%); sliding - scale duty pick - up price was 14069, down 29 (-0.21%) [3] Spread Data - The yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 6205, down 55; the yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 911, up 22 [3] Other Data - The domestic - foreign spread (spot) was 1715, up 51 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) changed from 126 on 9/30 to 6 on 10/30, with a daily change of 10 on 10/30 [3]. - The East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) was 66 on 9/30 and 106 on 10/30, with no daily change on 10/30 [3]. - The South China basis (Foshan warehouse) increased from 56 on 9/30 to 126 on 10/30, with a daily change of 20 on 10/30 [3]. - The 12 - 01 spread changed from 17 on 9/30 to 15 on 10/30, with a daily change of -2 on 10/30 [3]. - The 12 - 03 spread decreased from 5 on 9/30 to -6 on 10/30, with a daily change of -7 on 10/30 [3]. - The 01 - 02 spread was -5 on 9/30 and -5 on 10/30, with a daily change of -1 on 10/30 [3]. 3.2. Futures Contracts - The BU main contract (01) price dropped from 3424 on 9/30 to 3254 on 10/30, with a daily change of -20 on 10/30 [3]. - The trading volume decreased from 229,798 on 9/30 to 212,219 on 10/30, with a daily change of -21,636 (-9%) on 10/30 [3]. - The open interest decreased from 316,935 on 9/30 to 338,671 on 10/30, with a daily change of -1,392 on 10/30 [3]. - The warehouse receipts decreased from 13,040 on 9/30 to 9,120 on 10/30, with a daily change of -800 on 10/30 [3]. 3.3. Spot Market - Brent crude oil price changed from 65.4 on 9/30 to 65.0 on 10/30, with a daily change of 0.1 on 10/30 [3]. - Jingbo asphalt price decreased from 3580 on 9/30 to 3260 on 10/30, with a daily change of -20 on 10/30 [3]. - Honghai asphalt price decreased from 3470 on 9/30 to 3180 on 10/30, with a daily change of -10 on 10/30 [3]. - Zhenjiang warehouse asphalt price decreased from 3490 on 9/30 to 3360 on 10/30, with a daily change of -20 on 10/30 [3]. - Foshan warehouse asphalt price was 3480 on 9/30 and 3380 on 10/30, with no daily change on 10/30 [3]. 3.4. Profits - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit decreased from 379 on 9/30 to 247 on 10/30, with a daily change of -12 on 10/30 [3]. - The Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit decreased from 838 on 9/30 to 690 on 10/30, with a daily change of -6 on 10/30 [3].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Fuel Oil Morning Report [3] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [3] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] Group 2: Market Data - Rotterdam | Product | Change from 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 1.02 [4] | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | -1.59 [4] | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | 0.23 [4] | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -3.51 [4] | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | 1.92 [4] | | LGO - Brent M1 | -0.54 [4] | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | -2.61 [4] | Group 3: Market Data - Singapore | Product | Change from 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 2.18 [4] | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 3.37 [4] | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 5.55 [4] | | Singapore GO M1 | 1.45 [4] | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -0.05 [4] | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -5.18 [4] | Group 4: Market Data - Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Product | Change from 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/30 | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | -14.46 [5] | | FOB VLSFO | -3.42 [5] | | 380 Basis | -1.05 [5] | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 1 [5] | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 6.7 [5] | Group 5: Market Data - Domestic FU | Product | Change from 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | -6 [5] | | FU 05 | -1 [5] | | FU 09 | -4 [5] | | FU 01 - 05 | -5 [5] | | FU 05 - 09 | 3 [5] | | FU 09 - 01 | 2 [5] | Group 6: Market Data - Domestic LU | Product | Change from 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 13 [6] | | LU 05 | 16 [6] | | LU 09 | 15 [6] | | LU 01 - 05 | -3 [6] | | LU 05 - 09 | 1 [6] | | LU 09 - 01 | 2 [6] | Group 7: Core Views - This week, the 380 fuel oil crack spread oscillated, the monthly spread weakened month - on - month, the basis oscillated and weakened, the European HSFO crack spread strengthened, and the EW spread weakened significantly. The 0.5 low - sulfur crack spread in Singapore oscillated at a low level, and the monthly spread and basis oscillated at a low level [6]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual fuel oil inventory increased, floating storage increased, ARA's residual fuel oil inventory decreased, floating storage increased, and EIA's residual fuel oil inventory decreased slightly [6][10]. - In terms of shipments, Russia's residual fuel oil shipments rebounded this week but were still low year - on - year. Russia's overall residual fuel oil shipments in October decreased month - on - month. Saudi Arabia's residual fuel oil shipments oscillated at a high level, the UAE's shipments decreased month - on - month. Singapore's arrivals were neutral this week, and domestic residual fuel oil arrivals increased month - on - month [10]. - This week, the domestic - foreign spreads of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rebounded significantly. The external low - sulfur market remained weak, the Singapore high - sulfur market had a poor basis, but the EW spread and raw material premiums supported the 380 crack spread, showing a short - term oscillating pattern [10].

Report Title - "Pigs: Contradictions Accumulating, Potential Further Decline in the Central Price during the Distant Off - season" [1] Report Date - November 2, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The central price of live pig spot and futures may further decline. For the spot market, the supply pressure is large and the demand is expected to weaken, leading to a lower price center. For the futures market, due to factors such as inventory pressure and supply increase, the price centers of relevant contracts are also expected to decline [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review (October 27 - November 2) 3.1.1 Spot Market - Pig prices fluctuated strongly. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 19.95 yuan/kg (last week: 19.4 yuan/kg), the price of live pigs in Henan was 12.53 yuan/kg (last week: 11.98 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,546 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). The supply side saw enterprises slightly reduce volume at the end of the month, while the willingness of individual farmers to sell increased. The demand side was weakened as rising prices suppressed demand and the willingness to store in cold storage decreased. The average slaughter weight nationwide this week was 124.51KG (last week: 124.75KG), a 0.19% decrease [2] 3.1.2 Futures Market - Pig futures prices showed weak performance. The highest price of the LH2601 contract this week was 12,445 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,810 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,815 yuan/ton (last week: 12,170 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2601 contract was 715 yuan/ton (last week: - 195 yuan/ton) [2] 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook (November 3 - November 9) 3.2.1 Spot Market - Live pig spot prices are expected to run weakly. Low prices in October stimulated demand and cold storage, and the widening price difference between fat and standard pigs drove the enthusiasm for secondary fattening. However, there was a negative feedback at the terminal, limiting further price increases. From the supply perspective, the market supply is in a continuous increasing stage, and the supply pressure is large. From the demand perspective, although low prices in October stimulated demand, the demand is expected to weaken in November. Overall, the price center will further decline [3] 3.2.2 Futures Market - The price of the LH2601 contract closed at 11,810 yuan/ton on October 31. The large - scale entry of secondary fattening in October led to a negative feedback at the terminal, a decrease in slaughter volume, and a weakening of spot prices. There is a large pressure to reduce weight in the fourth quarter, and it is difficult to fully digest inventory pressure before the Spring Festival. The supply pressure is expected to be realized in the March and May contracts. It is expected that the price center will further decline, with a short - term support level of 11,000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 12,300 yuan/ton for the LH2601 contract [4] 3.3 Other Data - This week's basis was 715 yuan/ton, and the LH2601 - LH2603 monthly spread was 440 yuan/ton [8] - This week's average weight was 124.51KG (last week: 124.75KG). In August, pork production was 5.309 million tons, a 5.9% month - on - month increase; in September, pork imports were 80,600 tons, a 2.02% month - on - month decrease [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) was 6 on 10/30 with a daily change of 10; the East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) was 106 with no daily change; the South China basis (Foshan warehouse) was 126 with a daily change of 20 [3]. - The 12 - 01 spread was 15 on 10/30 with a daily change of -2; the 12 - 03 spread was -6 with a daily change of -7; the 01 - 02 spread was -5 with a daily change of -1 [3]. - The BU main contract (01) was 3254 on 10/30, down 20 from the previous day [3]. 2. Trading Volume, Open Interest, and Warehouse Receipts - The trading volume on 10/30 was 212,219, a decrease of 21,636 (-9%) compared to the previous day; the open interest was 338,671, a decrease of 1,392; the warehouse receipts were 9,120, a decrease of 800 [3]. 3. Spot Prices - Brent crude oil was $64.9 on 10/30, up $0.5 from the previous day [3]. - Jingbo's spot price was 3,260 on 10/30, down 20 from the previous day; Hongrun's was 3,180, down 10; Zhenjiang warehouse's was 3,360, down 20; Foshan warehouse's remained at 3,380 [3]. 4. Profits - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit was 251 on 10/30, down 33 from the previous day; the Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit was 693, down 26 [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Instead, it gives individual ratings for different commodities, such as "follow oil price rebound, short PXN on rallies" for paraxylene, "long PX short PTA, unilateral trend rebound" for PTA, etc. [2] Core Views - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and investment suggestions for various energy and chemical commodities. It takes into account factors like supply and demand, production capacity, inventory, and macro - economic events to evaluate the price trends of each commodity. For example, for some commodities, it expects short - term rebounds due to factors like improved demand expectations or cost support, while for others, it anticipates long - term downward pressure due to high supply and weak demand [2][7][39] Summary by Commodity Paraxylene (PX) - **Price Trend**: Unilateral price short - term rebound, PXN short on rallies [2][7] - **Fundamentals**: This week, there were few changes in PX devices. Domestic device operating rate was 85.9% (+1%), and Asian overall load operating rate was 78.5% (+0.5%). Next week, some devices will restart or postpone maintenance. PX supply is slightly tight, and PTA load has increased [7] Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) - **Price Trend**: Unilateral trend is strong in the short - term [2][8] - **Fundamentals**: New devices have started operation, and some devices have adjusted their loads. Polyester load remains stable, downstream orders have improved, and inventory has decreased. Market demand expectations are positive [8] Monoethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Price Trend**: Short - term rebound, positive basis and calendar spread arbitrage [2][9] - **Fundamentals**: Oil - based plant operating rate has decreased, and import arrivals are lower than expected. Some devices are under maintenance, and coal - based device profits are negative [9] Rubber - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][10] - **Fundamentals**: Futures trading volume has increased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have risen slightly. China's natural rubber imports in October are expected to decrease, and tire production capacity utilization has increased [11][13] Synthetic Rubber - **Price Trend**: Central price moves up supported by macro - sentiment [2][14] - **Fundamentals**: Futures trading volume has increased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices of some products have risen. But the industry faces high supply pressure, and inventory has increased. However, due to many maintenance plans in November, the fundamentals are expected to improve marginally [14][17] Asphalt - **Price Trend**: Follow oil price fluctuations [2][19] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen slightly, trading volume and positions have decreased. Spot prices in some regions have increased, refinery operating rate has increased slightly, and inventory has changed little [19][32] Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) - **Price Trend**: Mainly sideways [2][34] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume has decreased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have fluctuated slightly. Raw material oil prices have rebounded, but supply pressure will increase in the future [34][35] Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Trend**: Weak trend [2][38] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices are flat, trading volume has decreased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have risen slightly. Trade war, oil price, high supply, and low downstream profits jointly form downward pressure, but there is a short - term rebound due to factors like oil price rebound and supply reduction [38][39] Caustic Soda - **Price Trend**: Far - month valuation is suppressed [2][42] - **Fundamentals**: Alumina enterprises' high inventory puts pressure on caustic soda spot prices. Although there is new demand in some regions, the impact of alumina production reduction cannot be ignored, and cost has decreased [42][44] Pulp - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][48] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume has decreased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices are stable. Supply pressure persists, and demand is weak [49][50] Glass - **Price Trend**: Raw sheet prices are stable [2][52] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume has increased, and positions have increased. Spot prices are stable, and downstream orders are average [53] Methanol - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][55] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased, trading volume has decreased, and positions have increased. Spot prices are stable. Port inventory has increased slightly, and the market is under supply pressure, but there is support from port logistics [56][58] Urea - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][60] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen slightly, trading volume has increased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have risen slightly. Short - term rebound is due to macro - events and increased demand from compound fertilizer factories, but long - term pressure remains due to high supply and weak demand [61][63] Soda Ash - **Price Trend**: Spot market changes little [2][65] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen slightly, trading volume has increased, and positions have increased. Spot prices are stable. Device supply has increased slightly, and downstream demand is average [66] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Price Trend**: Limited upward drive, focus on cost changes [2][68] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen, trading volume and positions have changed. Some industrial device operating rates have increased. CP paper prices have decreased [68][72] Propylene - **Price Trend**: Short - term weak sideways due to loose supply and demand [2][68] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume and positions have changed. Spot prices have decreased slightly, and supply and demand are relatively loose [68] Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Trend**: Low - level sideways [2][75] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices are weak, and spot prices are stable. Supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, inventory is high, and export growth may slow down [75] Fuel Oil - **Price Trend**: Uptrend continues, strong in the short - term [2][78] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen, trading volume and positions have changed. Spot prices in various regions have increased, and the price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil has decreased [78] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Price Trend**: Weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [2][78] - **Fundamentals**: Similar to fuel oil, but the price increase is relatively smaller [78] Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Price Trend**: Sideways consolidation [2][80] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have changed, trading volume and positions have changed. Freight rates of some routes have increased, and shipping capacity has changed [80]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market for polyolefins is expected to stop falling in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term. For PP, the short - term market rebounds reasonably, but in the long - term, it may be in a weakly fluctuating pattern. For PE, it is in a fluctuating market in the short - term [1][5][8]. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 1. Viewpoint Overview PP - **Supply**: This week, the domestic polypropylene production was 77.76 tons, a decrease of 2.92% from last week. Next week, the planned maintenance loss is expected to remain high, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to stay around 75.8%. - **Demand**: The average downstream industry start - up rate shows an upward trend. With the approaching of Double Eleven and the cold weather, the demand for terminal products is slightly supported. - **Viewpoint**: Although there are downward pressures, recent factors such as the rebound of oil prices and phased production cuts on the supply side lead to a short - term market rebound. In the long - term, the downward driving factors are difficult to fundamentally solve, so it may be in a weakly fluctuating pattern. - **Valuation**: The basis and monthly spread are weak, and the short - term valuation is moderately weak [5][7]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is weakly fluctuating, with an upper pressure of 7000 - 7050 and a lower support of 6500 - 6550; for inter - period trading, buy 05 and sell 01 in the short - term; no recommendation for cross - variety trading [7]. PE - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers is 81.46%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period. In October, the maintenance volume decreased compared to September, and later the supply pressure will gradually increase. - **Demand**: The demand from downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films is strong, which supports the market and helps reduce inventory. - **Viewpoint**: The rebound of crude oil prices and stable downstream demand lead to a short - term fluctuating market. - **Valuation**: The basis fluctuates, the monthly spread weakens, and the L - LL spread fluctuates and weakens, with a moderate valuation. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is range - bound, with an upper pressure of 7000, 7200 for the 01 contract and a lower support of 6850; no recommendation for inter - period and cross - variety trading [8]. 2. Polypropylene Supply and Demand - **Price Difference**: The price difference between powder and granular materials and the price difference between copolymer and drawn materials have rebounded [17]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The average capacity utilization rate in this period is 75.94%, a decrease of 2.28% compared to the previous period [22]. - **Maintenance Situation**: Many devices are in long - term or short - term maintenance, and the planned maintenance loss is expected to remain high [24]. - **New Capacity**: In 2025, the potential new capacity is 470.5 tons, with a capacity increase of 10.5% [26]. - **Inventory**: The production and trader inventories have decreased. The total commercial inventory is 92.53 tons, a decrease of 6.08% compared to the previous period [32]. - **Cost**: The increase in crude oil prices has raised the oil - based production cost [34]. - **Profit**: The profits of oil - based and PDH production methods have declined [40]. - **Downstream Industry**: BOPP has stable start - up, increased order days, and decreased finished - product inventory, but the profit is still at a low level; the start - up of tape master rolls has increased, but the order days have decreased; the start - up and order days of plastic weaving have remained flat; the start - up of non - woven fabrics has remained flat, and the finished - product inventory is moderately high; the start - up and order days of CPP have increased [42][50][53][58][61]. 3. Polyethylene Supply and Demand - **Price Difference**: The L - LL spread fluctuates and declines, and the HD - LL spread fluctuates and rises. The inventory of HDPE and LDPE in social sample warehouses has decreased, while that of LLDPE has increased [66][69]. - **Start - up and Production**: The start - up rate and production have decreased. The capacity utilization rate is 81.46%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period, and the production this week is 64.81 tons, a decrease of 0.37% from last week [71][73]. - **Maintenance**: The maintenance loss in October has decreased compared to September [74]. - **New Capacity**: In 2025, the potential new capacity is 613 tons, with a capacity increase of 17.17% [75]. - **Inventory**: The production and social inventories have decreased. The sample inventory of producers is 51.46 tons, a decrease of 2.81% compared to the previous period [80]. - **Cost**: The increase in crude oil prices has raised the oil - based production cost [81]. - **Profit**: The profit of the oil - based production device has declined [87]. - **Downstream Industry**: The start - up and order days of agricultural films and packaging films have increased; the start - up rates of pipes and hollow products are lower than the same period last year [89][91][92].