Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel fundamentals are peaking, with seasonal demand decline and supply - demand pressure. However, high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center of the steel market is expected to shift from policy to fundamentals, and steel prices may show a short - term weakening trend [4][5]. - For coking coal and coke, although the market sentiment has cooled recently, the supply will be affected by policies in the medium term, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise [10]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term as the factors driving price increases weaken and the terminal steel demand is under pressure [15]. - For ferroalloys, both silicon - iron and manganese - silicon need to be wary of the adjustment risks caused by the rapid increase in supply [20]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: Some steel mills in Tangshan received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions. From August 25 - September 3, sintering machines will be restricted by 30%, and from August 31 - September 3, blast furnaces may be restricted by 40%. The spot prices of steel in Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin have declined. The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated last Friday night. Steel production resumed overall last week, with a slight reduction in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production. The overall inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the demand for building materials declined. The fundamentals of steel are peaking, but high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center is expected to shift to fundamentals, and steel prices may weaken [4][5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests a weakening trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to enter positive spreads at low basis levels and hold; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamping wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamping dry - quenched coke [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Recently, the prices of some coal mines have corrected, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. In the medium term, coal supply will be affected by policies, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise. The impact of over - production inspections on coal mine production is emerging [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests waiting for a correction and then going long on far - month contracts [11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market. The A - share market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan on August 18. From August 11 - 17, the global iron - ore shipment volume increased. The spot prices of some iron - ore varieties in Qingdao Port have changed [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron - ore price oscillated at night. The mainstream ore shipments are stable, and the non - mainstream shipments in August are at a high level year - on - year. The demand for terminal steel is under pressure, and the factors driving price increases have weakened. The short - term ore price will fluctuate [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral, arbitrage, option, and spot - futures trading all suggest waiting and seeing [13]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: The manganese - ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased, while that in Qinzhou Port decreased. The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, the supply is increasing rapidly, and the demand is at a high level but the rebar apparent demand is declining. For manganese - silicon, the supply is also increasing, the demand is high in the short term, and the cost is supported. Both need to be wary of supply - related adjustment risks [20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests using it as a short - position variety in the industrial chain; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct positive spreads when the basis is low; for options, it is recommended to sell straddle option combinations at high prices [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillating trend. Although chemical demand is strong, the weak combustion demand restricts upward movement. International LPG prices are weak, and factors such as increased warehouse receipts and regional differences also affect the market [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data and Changes - From July 25 to July 31, 2025, the price of South China LPG decreased from 4500 to 4440 (-40), East China LPG remained at 4413, Shandong LPG decreased from 4630 to 4540 (-40), propane CFR South China increased from 549 to 550 (+5), propane CIF Japan increased from 514 to 555 (+28), MB propane spot decreased from 71 to 73 (-1), CP forecast contract price increased from 522 to 530 (+7), Shandong ether - after carbon four decreased from 4900 to 4910 (-20), Shandong alkylated oil decreased from 7980 to 7970 (-30), paper import profit decreased from -33 to -120 (-82), and the main basis increased from 453 to 437 (+9) [1] 2. Market Conditions on Thursday - The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4413. FEI oscillated, CP slightly declined, and the official CP prices for August were announced, with propane/butane at 520/490 respectively. PP prices dropped, and the production profits of FEI and CP for PP slightly weakened, with CP having a lower production cost than FEI. The PG futures weakened, the monthly spread slightly weakened, and the 09 - 10 spread was -438 (-13). The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window closed [1] 3. PG Market Conditions - The PG futures oscillated. International LPG prices were weak, and the significant increase in warehouse receipts suppressed the futures. Domestic chemical demand increased, but weak combustion demand restricted upward movement. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4413 yuan/ton. The basis weakened to 370 (-63). The inter - month reverse spread continued to strengthen. The warehouse receipt registration volume was 9804 lots (+1000), with 1000 lots added by Qingdao Yunda. The overseas prices continued to weaken, and the oil - gas ratio weakened. In terms of regional spreads, PG - CP reached 43 (+18), FEI - MB reached 155 (-6), FEI - CP reached 4.5 (+4.5); the US - Asia arbitrage window closed [1] 4. Weekly View - The FEI propane discount continued to decline, and the CP landed discount oscillated. The change in FEI - MOPJ was small, with the latest at -47.5 (-3.75). PDH profits improved, and MTBE export profits declined. The arrival volume decreased significantly, with ships in South China delayed due to typhoons, and port inventories decreased. Factory inventories slightly increased. The commodity volume decreased by 0.53%. Chemical demand was strong; the PDH operating rate increased significantly to 73.13% (+2.01 pct) as Zhenhua Petrochemical and Hebei Haiwei gradually increased their loads. Next week, Liaoning Jinfa plans to resume operation; the alkylation operating rate increased, and Henan Chengxin's alkylation unit has a restart plan; the MTBE operating load increased, with manufacturers focusing on exports, and the overall operation was stable. Weak combustion demand restricted upward movement [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Urea domestic demand is weak, and exports support the upward movement of the futures price. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the market is waiting for new drivers. Attention should be paid to news - related disturbances [1][11] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened high and moved high today, with a slight decline in the afternoon and a small gain. Upstream factories lowered prices to attract orders, and downstream buyers replenished at low prices, resulting in good market transactions. This week's urea production declined, but next week, most factories will resume production, and production will increase month - on - month. Northern agricultural demand is near the end, with sporadic purchases. After compound fertilizer factories started autumn fertilizer production, the operating load increased slightly. Currently, compound fertilizer factories have taken 30% of nitrogen fertilizer, and there is still an expectation of further purchases. However, due to the dominance of advance payments, the finished - product inventory in factories has increased, and the demand for urea has strong elasticity and limited support. Inventory continued to decline this period, mainly due to regional agricultural demand and export orders, but the decline rate has slowed down [1][11] Futures Market - The main 2509 contract of urea opened at 1750 yuan/ton, fluctuated strongly during the day, and finally closed at 1745 yuan/ton, up 0.29%. The trading volume was 188,727 lots, a decrease of 9,285 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 3,019 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,273 lots. Qisheng Futures' net long positions increased by 1,437 lots, and Zheshang Futures' net long positions decreased by 519 lots. CITIC Futures' net short positions increased by 1,642 lots, and Dongzheng Futures' net short positions increased by 3,271 lots. On July 18, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 2,523, a decrease of 107 from the previous trading day, all from Anhui Zhongneng [2] Spot Market - After downstream buyers purchased at low prices and factories lowered prices to attract orders, the order - receiving situation was fair. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1730 - 1770 yuan/ton, with a few factories quoting slightly higher [3] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of basis, today's mainstream spot market quotes were stable, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. On July 18, 2025, the national daily urea production was 197,400 tons, unchanged from yesterday, and the operating rate was 84.03% [7][10]