本期 前值 周变动 本期 前值 周变动 开工率 85.04 84.72 0.32 开工率 70.610 70.610 0.000 产量 79.09 78.81 0.28 产线条数 209 209 0 重质产量 42.3 41.98 0.32 产量 103.8365 103.5965 0.24 轻质产量 36.79 36.83 -0.04 厂内库存 189.44 158.8 30.64 库存 7600.8 5535.2 2065.6 重质库存 89.59 75.64 13.95 库存可用天数 33.8 24.4 9.4 轻质库存 99.85 83.16 16.69 库存可用天数 14.26 13.17 1.09 产销率 61.12 99.13 -38.01 天然气利润 -142.26 -166.55 24.29 氨碱法毛利 -90.15 -89.25 -0.9 石油焦利润 43.93 43.93 0 联产法毛利 -1.5 -32.5 31 煤制气利润 -30.79 -28.87 -1.92 基差 -40 -50 10 基差 -31 -61 30 1-5价差 -109 -110 1 1-5价差 -159 -155 ...

s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | | | | | | | FUARI ABRIAL AND | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 1/26 | | 2/11 | 2/12 | 2/13 | 2/24 | 日度变化 | 팀 | | 基差&月差 | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) | -79 | | -93 | -63 | 0 | 32 | 32 | | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | -79 | | -43 | -13 | 50 | -18 | -68 | | | | 华南基差(佛山库) | -49 | | -93 | -63 | 0 | -68 | -68 | | | | 03-06 | -7 | | -12 | -21 | -24 | -38 | -14 | | | | 04-06 | -7 | | 3 | -5 | -8 | -24 | -16 | | | | 06-09 | 22 | | 31 | 26 | 30 | 30 | 0 | | | | BU主力合约 | 3279 | | 3373 ...

s 加安期货 10/1 11/1 9/1 -100 - -300 沥青早报 | | | | | | | | MIND L'O HOLOGIA EVEV | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 1/23 | 2/9 | 2/10 | 2/11 | 2/12 | 日度变化 | 間 | | | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) 华东基差(镇江库) | -56 -56 | -54 -4 | -63 -13 | -93 -43 | -63 -13 | 30 30 | | | | 华南基差(佛山库) | -56 | -54 | -63 | -93 | -63 | 30 | | | 基差&月差 | 03-06 | -7 | -6 | -8 | -12 | -21 | -9 | | | | 04-06 | -4 | 7 | -1 | 3 | -5 | -8 | | | | 06-09 | 23 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 26 | -5 | | | | BU主力合约 | 3236 | 3334 | 3343 | 3373 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the steel market is experiencing weak stability before the holiday, with low fluctuations in futures steel prices [4][12] - In January, China's CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase [4][12] - The sales of excavators in January 2026 reached 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales up by 61.4% [4][12] Group 2 - The production of rebar decreased by 225,200 tons to 1,691,600 tons, with inventory increasing by 672,500 tons to 5,848,200 tons [5][14] - Hot-rolled coil production slightly decreased by 14,000 tons to 3,077,600 tons, while total inventory rose by 115,700 tons to 3,707,700 tons [5][14] - The average cost for independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 3,296 yuan per ton, with an average loss of 520 yuan per ton [4][12] Group 3 - The total supply of five major steel products was 7,940,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 258,400 tons, while total inventory increased by 1,449,300 tons, a rise of 7.8% [4][12] - The steel market is currently in a weak supply-demand situation, with steel mills implementing production cuts as the holiday approaches [5][14] - The strategy for rebar is to observe support around 3,050, while for hot-rolled coil, support is around 3,200 [6][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current prices have factored in a high geopolitical premium. Given the potential over - expected production increase in Venezuela and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits at high prices and focus on mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a significant number of negative factors. With potential short - term geopolitical fluctuations overseas, it is recommended to take profits on previous short positions and adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [4]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production recovery at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is advisable to short on rallies [7]. - For rubber, approaching the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce risk, trade short - term on the market, set stop - losses, and avoid holding single - sided positions during the festival. Consider holding a long NR main contract and short RU2609 contract for hedging [12]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak, with strong supply and weak demand. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support the price, the weak fundamentals may affect the industry pattern. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so it is advisable to gradually take profits [19]. - For polyethylene, the OPEC+ plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The spot price of polyethylene has declined, and the overall demand is in a seasonal off - peak. The price is expected to be supported by the significant reduction of coal - based inventory [22]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, the short - term situation is stable. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is positive, and there are opportunities to go long following crude oil prices after the Spring Festival [28]. - For PTA, it is entering the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to remain high, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long at low prices [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is facing inventory accumulation and high production pressure. Although there is a risk of a short - term rebound due to geopolitical and cost factors, the supply - demand situation needs to be improved through increased production cuts [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: On February 12, 2026, the INE main crude oil futures rose 4.30 yuan/barrel, or 0.91%, to 476.80 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, rose 39.00 yuan/ton, or 1.38%, to 2,860.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 76.00 yuan/ton, or 2.32%, to 3,357.00 yuan/ton [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu remained unchanged, while those in Lunan, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia changed by 5 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, and 5 yuan/ton respectively. The main futures contract changed by 14.00 yuan/ton to 2,248 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 12 yuan [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China changed by 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively, while that in Hubei remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 12 yuan/ton to 1,797 yuan/ton [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market rebounded with the commodity market. The bulls were optimistic about the market due to macro - economic expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while the bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.94%, 1.47 percentage points lower than the previous week but 40.93 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 73.42%, 1.93 percentage points lower than the previous week but 44.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.1 million tons, a 0.9 - million - ton increase from the previous month, or 0.7%. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 1.09 million tons to 59.12 million tons, a 1.88% increase [9][10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 19 yuan to 4,990 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,750 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 240 (+1) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 113 (+4) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2,550 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 695 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 590 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, with the calcium carbide method at 80.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the ethylene method at 75.5%, a 0.5% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a 3.3% decrease from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 28.8 million tons (- 0.2), and the social inventory was 122.7 million tons (+2.1) [14]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 6,103 yuan/ton, an 87.5 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6,124 yuan/ton, an 87.5 - yuan/ton increase, and the pure benzene basis was - 21.5 yuan/ton, a 2.5 - yuan/ton reduction. In the spot - futures market, the styrene spot price was 7,550 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan/ton decrease, and the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7,497 yuan/ton, a 24 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 53 yuan/ton, a 174 - yuan/ton weakening. The BZN spread was 153.62 yuan/ton, a 12.5 - yuan/ton decrease. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 213.975 yuan/ton, a 44.125 - yuan/ton decrease. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton reduction. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, a 0.68% increase, and the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 million tons, a 0.80 - million - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79%, a 0.23% increase, the PS operating rate was 55.20%, a 0.40% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, a 2.98% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a 1.70% decrease [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6,787 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan/ton increase, and the spot price was 6,585 yuan/ton, a 90 - yuan/ton decrease. The basis was - 202 yuan/ton, a 102 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a 0.27% decrease from the previous period. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 37.97 million tons, a 5.67 - million - ton increase from the previous period, and the trader inventory was 2.32 million tons, a 0.23 - million - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 33.73%, a 4.03% decrease from the previous period. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 49 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan/ton expansion [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6,693 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton increase, and the spot price was 6,675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 18 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous period. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 41.58 million tons, a 1.49 - million - ton increase from the previous period, the trader inventory was 18.32 million tons, a 0.02 - million - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 6.37 million tons, a 0.03 - million - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 49.84%, a 2.24% decrease from the previous period. The LL - PP spread was 94 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan/ton expansion, and the PP5 - 9 spread was - 28 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan/ton reduction [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 44 yuan to 7,264 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 8 US dollars to 917 US dollars. The basis was - 39 yuan (- 8) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 3 - 5 spread was - 114 yuan (- 26). The PX operating rate in China was 89.5%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, and the Asian operating rate was 82.4%, a 0.8% increase. In terms of plants, Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting, Zhejiang Petrochemical was increasing production, and Fujian United Petrochemical's operating rate fluctuated. The PTA operating rate was 77.6%, a 1% increase, with Sichuan Energy Investment restarting, Dushan Energy under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton plant in Taiwan under maintenance. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 175,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of February, a 30,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of December was 4.65 billion tons, a 190 - million - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 297 US dollars (- 5), the South Korean PX - MX was 142 US dollars (+3), and the naphtha crack spread was 106 US dollars (+15) [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 30 yuan to 5,260 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 40 yuan to 5,180 yuan. The basis was - 73 yuan (+2), and the 5 - 9 spread was 24 yuan (- 4). The PTA operating rate was 77.6%, a 1% increase, with Sichuan Energy Investment restarting, Dushan Energy under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton plant in Taiwan under maintenance. The downstream operating rate was 78.2%, a 6% decrease, with Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament plant restarting and 4.75 million tons of chemical fiber plants such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong under maintenance. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 24% to 9%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 6 was 2.326 billion tons, a 210 - million - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 1 yuan to 365 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 16 yuan to 420 yuan [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 31 yuan to 3,764 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 29 yuan to 3,652 yuan. The basis was - 114 yuan (- 4), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 110 yuan (- 2). On the supply side, the ethylene glycol operating rate was 76.2%, a 1.8% increase, with the syngas - based method at 76.8%, a 4.3% decrease, and the ethylene - based method at 75.9%, a 5.4% increase. Among the syngas - based plants, Wonen was shut down and expected to restart in the short term, Guanghui restarted, and Sinochem reduced production due to an accident. In the oil - chemical sector, Zhongke Refining & Chemical and Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and Satellite switched production after shutting down. Overseas, China Taiwan's Zhongxian shut down, and Saudi Arabia's Sharq2 restarted. The downstream operating rate was 78.2%, a 6% decrease, with Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament plant restarting and 4.75 million tons of chemical fiber plants such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong under maintenance. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 24% to 9%. The import arrival forecast was 181,000 tons (two weeks), and the East China departure volume on February 10 was 12,400 tons. The port inventory was 935,000 tons, a 38,000 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based production profit was - 1,312 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 710 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 24 yuan. The price of ethylene decreased to 695 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal decreased to 580 yuan [32].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a methanol polyolefin morning report released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on February 5, 2026, covering methanol, plastics, PP, and PVC [2] Group 2: Methanol Analysis - **Price Data**: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, the price of江苏现货 decreased from 2300 to 2250, and the price of西北折盘面 increased from 2385 to 2398 [2] - **Market Outlook**: The conflict in Iran continues to ferment, MTO is showing resistance. Some factories have parking or production reduction plans. It is difficult for methanol to go up or down. MTO profit caps the upside. It is currently appropriate to be bearish or sell call options [2] Group 3: Plastic Analysis - **Price Data**: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, the price of东北亚乙烯 decreased from 700 to 695, the price of华东LL decreased from 7025 to 6940, and the price of华东LD decreased from 8925 to 8800 [2] - **Market Outlook**: The futures market is oscillating, the spot price is stable, and the basis is weak. The oil - making profit and coal - making profit are deteriorating. The upstream coal chemical industry and Sinopec & PetroChina are destocking, while social inventory is accumulating this week. The supply of standard products is growing rapidly, and the supply of 05 PE is expected to be under pressure [2] Group 4: PP Analysis - **Price Data**: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, the price of山东丙烯 increased from 6370 to 6410, the price of华东PP increased from 6675 to 6620, and the price of主力期货 increased from 6870 to 6801 [3] - **Market Outlook**: The futures market is stable, and the basis is weak. The import profit is - 334, and the export profit is - 225. The export volume has slightly declined. The upstream profit is stable, and the downstream profit has improved. The supply is temporarily flat in January, and the overall inventory is neutral. The supply of 05 and later is expected to be slightly under pressure [3] Group 5: PVC Analysis - **Price Data**: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, the price of西北电石 increased from 2500 to 2575, the price of电石法 - 华东 increased from 4720 to 4950, and the price of电石法 - 西北 increased from 4330 to 4550 [4][5] - **Market Outlook**: The V basis is - 330, up 10 compared to the previous period. This week's trading volume is average. The upstream is stable, and the downstream demand is stable. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and the export is flat. The current comprehensive profit of PVC is low, and the short - term seasonal production starts to recover. The long - term demand in the real estate market is weak, and the medium - to - long - term outlook for PVC is poor [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No relevant content Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (non-Jingbo) changed from -4 on 1/6 to -31 on 2/4, with a daily change of -12 [3] - The East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) changed from 6 on 1/6 to -11 on 2/4, with a daily change of -2 [3] - The South China basis (Foshan warehouse) changed from -14 on 1/6 to -61 on 2/4, with a daily change of -2 [3] - The 03 - 06 spread changed from 10 on 1/6 to 2 on 2/4, with a daily change of -3 [3] - The 04 - 06 spread was 8 on 2/4, with no daily change [3] - The 06 - 09 spread changed from 15 on 1/6 to 23 on 2/4, with a daily change of 4 [3] 2. Futures Contracts - The BU main contract price was 3361 on 2/4, with a daily increase of 52 [3] - The trading volume was 282,920 on 2/4, a decrease of 20,689 (-33%) compared to the previous day [3] - The open interest was 387,150 on 2/4, a decrease of 6% compared to the previous day [3] - The combined volume was 13,580 on 2/4, with no change [3] 3. Spot Market - Brent crude oil price was 67.0 on 2/4, with a daily increase of 0.8 [3] - Jingbo's asphalt price was 3260 on 2/4, with no change [3] - The non-Jingbo Shandong asphalt price was 3250 on 2/4, an increase of 40 [3] - The Zhenjiang warehouse asphalt price was 3350 on 2/4, an increase of 50 [3] - The Foshan warehouse asphalt price was 3300 on 2/4, an increase of 50 [3] 4. Profit - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit was 405 on 2/4, a decrease of 35 compared to the previous day [3]

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 4 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力高开高走，日内走强。120 分钟布林带三轨开口向 上，短期震荡偏强信号，盘中压力关注布林带上轨附近，支撑关注日线的 20 均 线附近。成交量较昨日增 44.7 万手，持仓量较昨日增 12546 手；日内最高 1234， 最低 1201，收盘 1229，（较昨结算价）涨 25 元/吨，涨幅 2.08%。 2，现货市场：低位震荡。企业装置窄幅波动，徐州丰成停车检修，产量窄 幅下移。下游需求不温不火，保持随用随采。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差 21 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 1 月 29 日，国内纯碱产量 78.31 万吨，环比增加 1.14 万 吨，涨幅 1.47%。其中，轻碱产量 36.20 万吨，环比增加 0.32 万吨；重碱产量 42.11 万吨，环比增加 0.82 万吨。综合产能利用率 84.19%，上周 86.42%，环比 下降 2.23%。其中氨碱产能利用率 88.99%，环比增加 1.30%；联产产能利用率 74.65%，环比下降 3.34%。 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Report Date: February 4, 2026 [4] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Views - No information provided Group 4: Basis and Spread - Shandong basis (+80) (non-Jingbo) changed from -52 on 12/31 to -19 on 2/3, with a daily change of -40 [3] - East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) changed from -82 on 12/31 to -9 on 2/3, with a daily change of -10 [3] - South China basis (Foshan warehouse) changed from -122 on 12/31 to -29 on 2/3, with a daily change of -50 [3] - 03 - 06 spread changed from -23 on 12/31 to 5 on 2/3, with a daily change of -10 [3] - 04 - 06 spread changed from -20 on 12/31 to 8 on 2/3, with a daily change of 8 [3] - 06 - 09 spread changed from 5 on 12/31 to 19 on 2/3, with a daily change of -6 [3] Group 5: Futures Contracts - BU main contract price was 3022 on 12/31 and 3309 on 2/3, with a daily change of 10 [3] - Trading volume decreased from 311,277 on 12/31 to 303,609 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 242,358 [3] - Open interest decreased from 426,006 on 12/31 to 381,498 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 16,182 [3] - Aggregate contracts remained at 13,580 from 1/28 to 2/3 [3] Group 6: Spot Prices - Brent crude price was 66.5 on 1/28 and 66.1 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 4.6 [3] - Jingbo spot price was 2980 on 12/31 and 3260 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 20 [3] - Shandong (non-Jingbo) spot price was 2890 on 12/31 and 3210 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 30 [3] - Zhenjiang warehouse spot price remained at 3300 from 2/2 to 2/3 [3] - Foshan warehouse spot price was 2900 on 12/31 and 3250 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 40 [3] Group 7: Profits - Asphalt Ma Rui profit was N/A on 12/31 and 440 on 2/3, a daily increase of 199 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap from Iran, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [4]. - For methanol, it has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside [5]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short on rallies [8]. - For rubber, the overall commodities have risen sharply with strong buying enthusiasm and large fluctuations. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and control risks strictly. The suggestion to buy NR main contract and short RU2609 should be postponed [14]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and rush - to - export sentiment support it. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and operation [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral to high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. It is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. - For polyethylene, the OPEC+ plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The PE valuation still has room to decline. In the seasonal off - season, the demand side shows a downward trend in the overall operating rate [23]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production - mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. The current valuation has risen. Mid - term, there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [27]. - For PTA, it enters the Spring Festival stockpiling stage with short - term high maintenance on the supply side and declining demand from polyester and chemical fiber due to the off - season. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [29]. - For ethylene glycol, in the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut under the pressure of stockpiling and high operation. The valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [32]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed up 3.80 yuan/barrel, a 0.81% increase, at 470.80 yuan/barrel. Singapore ESG weekly oil data showed gasoline inventory increased by 1.09 million barrels to 16.91 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.04 million barrels to 8.60 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 3.44 million barrels to 19.94 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.39 million barrels to 45.44 million barrels [2][3]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [4]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu decreased by 5 yuan/ton, while those in Lunan and Henan increased by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 15.00 yuan/ton to 2320 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 103 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The current price suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, limiting the upside [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Hebei increased by 20 yuan/ton, and those in Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Shanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 1790 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 30 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy**: The import window has opened, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, short on rallies [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities such as copper and crude oil rose sharply but fell back after the night session. The short - term market is priced by funds with low correlation to fundamentals. Bulls and bears have different views on the market [11]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and control risks strictly. Postpone adding or opening positions for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 168 yuan to 5063 yuan. The cost of calcium carbide and other raw materials remained stable or changed slightly, the overall operating rate was 78.9%, and the downstream operating rate was 44.8%. Factory inventory decreased by 1.8 tons to 29 tons, and social inventory increased by 2.9 tons to 120.6 tons [16]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support it, and attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and operation [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene rose, and the basis widened. The spot price of styrene remained unchanged, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The non - integrated profit of styrene was neutral to high, and the port inventory continued to increase [19]. - **Strategy**: The upward valuation repair space of styrene is shrinking. Gradually take profits [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract closed at 7014 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, up 1.23%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, down 0.11% [22]. - **Strategy**: The crude oil price may have bottomed. The PE valuation still has room to decline, and the demand side shows a downward trend in the seasonal off - season [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract closed at 6824 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, down 0.01%. The inventory of production enterprises, traders, and ports all decreased, and the downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, down 0.02% [24]. - **Strategy**: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract decreased by 98 yuan to 7282 yuan. The PX load in China and Asia increased. The PTA load remained flat. The import of South Korean PX to China decreased in mid - early January, and the inventory increased in late November [26]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. There are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract decreased by 62 yuan to 5270 yuan. The PTA load remained flat, and the downstream load decreased. The social inventory increased in late January, and the processing fee increased [28]. - **Strategy**: It enters the Spring Festival stockpiling stage. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 44 yuan to 3913 yuan. The supply - side load increased, the downstream load decreased, the import to - port forecast was 14.7 tons, and the port inventory increased by 6.3 tons to 85.8 tons [31]. - **Strategy**: In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut under the pressure of stockpiling and high operation. The valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [32].