Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure benzene, styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX, PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene glycol, short - fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle chips, methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea, PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic soda, soda ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different products having different supply - demand relationships, price trends, and influencing factors. Some products are facing supply pressure and weak demand, while others have certain support from demand but also face future uncertainties [2][3][5] Summary by Category Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures' main contracts fluctuated narrowly. Supply is controllable as restarting devices are not in place, and downstream demand provides some price support [2] - Polyolefin futures' main contracts also fluctuated narrowly. Polyethylene maintenance decreased with increased domestic production, and downstream has pre - holiday stocking demand but faces post - holiday de - stocking pressure. Polypropylene prices are under pressure due to multiple factors such as demand differentiation, supply pressure, and high inventory [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene oscillated downward. Although the current fundamental situation is okay with port inventory decreasing and spot price being relatively firm, high import volume and expected demand decline drag the market [3] - Styrene futures' main contracts fluctuated narrowly. Cost - end oil price provides support, but high inventory suppresses the price [3] Polyester - PX's strong expectation weakened, and PTA's profitability is still poor. Although the pre - holiday stocking in the polyester yarn industry has reduced inventory pressure, post - holiday demand is expected to weaken, and the supply - demand situation remains under pressure [5] - Ethylene glycol's domestic operation decreased slightly, and port inventory is low. However, new device trials and weakening demand may lead to a weak supply - demand situation in the fourth quarter [5] - Short - fiber's new capacity is limited, and inventory decreased. The pre - holiday stocking has fulfilled the positive expectation. Bottle chips showed a short - term strong trend due to typhoon - affected device shutdown, but long - term over - capacity is a pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol's main contract oscillated. Port inventory is expected to increase after the holiday, and the market is expected to be weak [6] - Urea prices increased slightly, but downstream follow - up is cautious. The domestic supply - demand situation is loose, and attention should be paid to policy adjustments [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC oscillated weakly with high supply and high inventory. Domestic downstream pre - holiday stocking intention is low, and foreign demand is weak [7] - Caustic soda's futures price oscillated under the weak situation. Although there is an expectation of downstream stocking before alumina production, the current supply is high [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash weakened. The industry is de - stocking, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking is nearly over. The long - term supply is in excess [8] - Glass prices fell from a high level. Some manufacturers plan to increase prices, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking sentiment [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - PVC开工率环比下降，下游开工率窄幅上升，但因下游消耗有限，社会库存持续增长且压力偏高 [3] - 电石价格上涨带动电石法成本环比上升，目前电石法、乙烯法工艺持续亏损 [3] - 短期暂无新增检修计划，受部分装置重启影响，本周PVC产能利用率预计环比上升；新产能投放在即，中长期加大行业供应压力 [3] - 临近国庆长假，国内部分下游已完成备货，PVC需求预计边际减弱；终端地产市场偏弱，持续拖累国内需求 [3] - 印度PVC反倾销政策预计即将落地，出口市场观望为主，社会库存压力偏高，后市难去化 [3] - 近期电石供需博弈，价格预计持稳整理；乙烯法成本预计变化不大；短期供需偏弱给V2601盘面压力，技术上关注4830附近支撑线支撑 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - 聚氯乙烯（PVC）收盘价为4919元/吨，环比上涨28元/吨；成交量为902670手，环比增加54062手；持仓量为1111748手，环比减少12387手 [3] - 期货前20名持仓中，买单量为864420手，环比增加19389手；卖单量为952064手，环比增加4665手；净买单量为 - 87644手，环比增加14724手 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - 华东地区乙烯法PVC价格为5000元/吨，环比下降10元/吨；电石法PVC价格为4746.92元/吨，环比下降38.85元/吨 [3] - 华南地区乙烯法PVC价格为4970元/吨，环比下降30元/吨；电石法PVC价格为4815元/吨，环比下降36.88元/吨 [3] - 中国PVC到岸价为700美元/吨，东南亚到岸价为650美元/吨，西北欧离岸价为710美元/吨，均无环比变化；基差为 - 179元/吨，环比下降28元/吨 [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - 华中、华北、西北电石主流均价分别为2800元/吨、2768.33元/吨、2610元/吨，均无环比变化；内蒙液氯主流价为 - 350元/吨，无环比变化 [3] - VCM、EDC在CFR远东和CFR东南亚的中间价均无环比变化 [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - 聚氯乙烯（PVC）开工率为76.96%，环比下降2.98%；其中电石法开工率为76.89%，环比下降2.5%；乙烯法开工率为77.12%，环比下降4.19% [3] - 社会库存总计53.46万吨，环比增加0.3万吨；华东地区总计48.21万吨，环比增加0.38万吨；华南地区总计5.25万吨，环比减少0.08万吨 [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - 国房景气指数为93.05，环比下降0.29；房屋新开工面积累计值为39801.01万平方米，环比增加4595.01万平方米；房地产施工面积累计值为643108.94万平方米，环比增加4377.94万平方米；房地产开发投资完成额累计值为31693.94亿元，环比增加3588.01亿元 [3] 3.6 Option Market - 20日历史波动率为9.49%，环比下降0.32%；40日历史波动率为11.22%，环比上升0.16% [3] - 平值看跌期权隐含波动率和平值看涨期权隐含波动率均为14.21%，环比上升0.55% [3] 3.7 Industry News - 9月13 - 19日，PVC产能利用率环比下降2.98%至76.96%；下游开工率环比上升1.69%至49.19%，其中管材开工率环比上升1.52%至39.13%，型材开工率环比上升0.21%至39.43% [3] - 截至9月18日，PVC社会库存在95.37万吨，环比上周上升2.03% [3] - 9月13 - 19日，电石法周度平均成本环比上升至5230元/吨，乙烯法周度平均成本上升至5631元/吨；电石法周度利润环比下降155元/吨至657元/吨，乙烯法周度利润环比上升20元/吨至 - 652元/吨 [3]

īs 疯安期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/9/24 | | 指标 | 8/25 | 9/15 | 9/19 | 9/22 | 9/23 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3512 | 3393 | 3421 | 3401 | 3373 | -28 | -20 | | | BU10 | 3512 | 3411 | 3420 | 3406 | 3400 | -6 | -11 | | | BU11 | 3483 | 3393 | 3421 | 3401 | 3373 | -28 | -20 | | | BU12 | 3432 | 3322 | 3374 | 3352 | 3320 | -32 | -35 | | 语语 | BU01 | 3398 | 3340 | 3353 | 3322 | 3284 | -38 | -56 | | | BU03 | 3394 | 3346 | 3366 | 3325 | 3297 | -28 | -49 | | | 成交量 | 2575 ...

Group 1: Market Data Overview - The report provides data on asphalt futures contracts (BU10, BU11, BU12, BU01, BU03) from August 22 to September 22, 2025, including prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory [4]. - It also presents spot market prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast China) and at various warehouses (Zhenjiang, Foshan), as well as price differentials and basis [4]. - Data on crack spreads, profits (including asphalt - Brent crack spread, asphalt - Ma Rui profit, refinery comprehensive profits, and import profits), and related oil prices (Brent crude, gasoline, and diesel in Shandong) are included [4]. Group 2: Futures Contract Price Movements - For BU10, the price decreased by 20 on September 22 compared to the previous day and increased by 33 on a weekly basis [4]. - BU11, BU12, BU01, and BU03 also showed daily and weekly price changes, with varying degrees of increase or decrease [4]. Group 3: Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of asphalt futures decreased by 3,245 on September 22 compared to the previous day and decreased by 114,402 on a weekly basis [4]. - Open interest increased by 9,303 on September 22 compared to the previous day and decreased by 16,211 on a weekly basis [4]. Group 4: Spot Market Prices - Shandong's asphalt market price decreased by 10 on September 22 compared to the previous day and decreased by 20 on a weekly basis [4]. - East China's price remained stable on September 22 but decreased by 50 on a weekly basis, while South China's price was unchanged on both a daily and weekly basis [4]. - North China's price was stable on September 22 and increased by 10 on a weekly basis, and Northeast China's price decreased by 20 on both a daily and weekly basis [4]. Group 5: Basis and Spread - The basis and spread between different regions and contracts showed various changes. For example, the Shandong - East China basis decreased by 10 on September 22 compared to the previous day and increased by 30 on a weekly basis [4]. - The basis between different contract months (e.g., 10 - 11, 10 - 12) also had daily and weekly fluctuations [4]. Group 6: Crack Spreads and Profits - The asphalt - Brent crack spread increased by 29 on September 22 compared to the previous day and increased by 23 on a weekly basis [4]. - Asphalt - Ma Rui profit increased by 27 on September 22 compared to the previous day and increased by 22 on a weekly basis [4]. - Refinery comprehensive profits (ordinary and Ma Rui - type) and import profits showed different trends, with some increasing and some remaining stable [4].

Report Overview - The report is an asphalt morning report from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center, dated September 22, 2025 [2][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - No core view is explicitly stated in the provided content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: On September 19, the BU main contract was at 3421, down 6 from the previous day and 42 for the week. Other contracts like BU06, BU09, etc., also showed various price changes [4] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 246,616, up 36,008 from the previous day but down 21,872 for the week. The open interest was 409,431, up 675 from the previous day and down 34,400 for the week [4] - **Futures Inventory**: The inventory was 23,240, unchanged from the previous day and down 3,250 for the week [4] Spot Market - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 3,520, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 for the week; the East China market price was 3,590, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 for the week; and prices in other regions also had different changes [4] - **Refinery Prices**: For example, Jingbo (Haiyun) was at 3,620, down 10 from the previous day and 30 for the week; Xinhai (Xin Bohai) was at 3,660, unchanged from the previous day and up 10 for the week [4] Basis and Calendar Spreads - **Basis**: The Shandong basis was 6, up 6 from the previous day and 22 for the week; the East China basis was 169, up 6 from the previous day and down 8 for the week; and other regional bases also changed [4] - **Calendar Spreads**: For example, 03 - 06 was 17, down 2 from the previous day and up 15 for the week; 06 - 09 was 8, down 1 from the previous day and up 75 for the week [4] Crack Spreads and Profits - **Crack Spreads**: The asphalt - Brent crack spread was 18, up 26 from the previous day and down 40 for the week [4] - **Profits**: The asphalt - Ma Rui profit was -51, up 24 from the previous day and down 36 for the week; ordinary refinery comprehensive profit was 387, up 7 from the previous day and down 52 for the week; and other profit indicators also had different changes [4] Related Prices - **Crude Oil**: Brent crude oil was at 67.4, down 0.5 from the previous day and up 0.5 for the week [4] - **Gasoline and Diesel**: The Shandong market price of gasoline was 7,483, down 28 from the previous day and 74 for the week; the Shandong market price of diesel was 6,438, down 30 from the previous day and 40 for the week [4] - **Residual Oil**: The Shandong market price of residual oil was 3,660, down 40 from the previous day and up 85 for the week [4]

Group 1 - The State Council is researching standards and policies for government procurement of domestic products, which is seen as an important measure to improve the procurement system and ensure fair competition [1] - The People's Bank of China announced adjustments to the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to maintain liquidity and meet funding needs, with operations determined by liquidity management [1] - In the steel industry, there has been an increase in the scale of maintenance at steel mills, with 12 provinces involved, affecting production by approximately 29.96 million tons this week [1] Group 2 - In the soybean meal sector, actual soybean crushing volume reached 2.4275 million tons with an operating rate of 67.76%, which is 30,100 tons higher than estimated [1] - The lithium carbonate price index for battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 73,534 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 70 yuan [1] - The PVC industry shows a capacity utilization rate of 76.96%, down 2.98% from the previous period, with specific methods showing varying declines [1] Group 3 - The styrene industry reported a daily profit of -411 yuan per ton for non-integrated units, indicating an increase in losses compared to the previous working day [1] - As of September 19, the Shanghai export container freight index was reported at 1,198.21 points, a decrease of 199.90 points from the previous period [1] - Citigroup forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will drop to $60 per barrel by the end of 2025, with an average of $62 per barrel in the second to fourth quarters of 2026 [1]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: September 16, 2025 [3] 2. Core Data Futures Data - Futures Contracts: The closing price of the BU main contract on September 15 was 3393, up 25 from the previous day and down 44 week - on - week. Other contracts (BU06, BU09, BU12, BU03) also showed different price changes [4]. - Trading Volume: The trading volume on September 15 was 287,556, down 70,217 from the previous day and down 112,818 week - on - week [4]. - Open Interest: The open interest on September 15 was 415,168, down 19,777 from the previous day and down 33,884 week - on - week [4]. - Futures Inventory: The futures inventory on September 15 was 25,590, down 700 from the previous day and down 1300 week - on - week [4]. Spot Data - Market Prices: The spot prices of asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast China) showed different trends. For example, the Shandong market price was 3520 on September 15, down 10 from the previous day and down 10 week - on - week [4]. - Price Spreads: The price spreads between different regions (Shandong - East China, Shandong - Northeast, East China - South China) also changed. For example, the Shandong - East China spread was - 120 on September 15, down 10 from the previous day and up 50 week - on - week [4]. Basis and Calendar Spread - Basis: The basis of different regions (Shandong, East China, South China) showed different changes. For example, the Shandong basis was 127 on September 15, down 35 from the previous day and up 34 week - on - week [4]. - Calendar Spread: The calendar spreads between different contract months (03 - 06, 06 - 09, 09 - 12, 12 - 03) also changed. For example, the 06 - 09 spread was - 42 on September 15, up 68 from the previous day and up 87 week - on - week [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - Crack Spread: The asphalt Brent crack spread was 38 on September 15, down 41 from the previous day and down 78 week - on - week [4]. - Profits: The profits of different types of refineries (asphalt Marrow profit, ordinary refinery comprehensive profit, Marrow - type refinery comprehensive profit) and import profits (South Korea - East China, Singapore - South China) all showed different degrees of change [4]. Related Prices - Brent Crude Oil: The price of Brent crude oil on September 15 was 67.0, up 0.6 from the previous day and up 1.0 week - on - week [4]. - Other Related Products: The prices of gasoline, diesel, and residue oil in the Shandong market also had different trends [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No core viewpoints explicitly stated in the provided content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Data - The closing prices of BU main contract, BU06, BU09, BU12, and BU03 on September 11 were 3463, 3383, 3450, 3413, and 3382 respectively, with daily changes of 13, 13, 30, 14, and 8, and weekly changes of -87, -71, -85, -73, and -73 [4]. - The trading volume on September 11 was 268,488, a daily increase of 45,671 and a weekly increase of 24,191. The open interest was 443,831, a daily increase of 7,774 and a weekly decrease of 49,369. The futures inventory was 26,490, a daily decrease of 400 and a weekly decrease of 3,300 [4]. Spot Market - On September 11, the market prices in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, and Northeast China were 3540, 3640, 3500, 3650, and 3850 respectively. The daily changes were 0, 0, -20, 0, and -20, and the weekly changes were -10, -60, -30, 0, and -20 [4]. - The price differences between Shandong - East China, Shandong - Northeast, and East China - South China on September 11 were -100, -310, and 140 respectively, with daily changes of 0, 20, and 20, and weekly changes of 50, 10, and -30 [4]. Basis and Calendar Spread - The basis in Shandong, East China, and South China on September 11 were 77, 177, and 37 respectively, with daily changes of -13, -13, and -33, and weekly changes of 77, 27, and 57 [4]. - The calendar spreads of 03 - 06, 06 - 09, 09 - 12, and 12 - 03 on September 11 were 2, -67, 37, and 28 respectively, with daily changes of -5, -17, 16, and 6, and weekly changes of -2, 14, -12, and 0 [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - The asphalt - Brent crack spread on September 11 was 32, a daily decrease of 57 and a weekly decrease of 31. The asphalt - Ma Rui profit was -39, a daily decrease of 52 and a weekly decrease of 28 [4]. - The comprehensive profit of ordinary refineries and Ma Rui - type refineries on September 11 were 416 and 702 respectively, with daily changes of -43 and -46, and weekly changes of -19 and -23. The import profits from South Korea - East China and Singapore - South China were -101 and -940 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and -18, and weekly changes of -49 and -21 [4]. Related Prices - The price of Brent crude oil on September 11 was 67.5, a daily increase of 1.1 and a weekly increase of 0.5. The market prices of gasoline, diesel, and residue oil in Shandong on September 11 were 7557, 6478, and 3575 respectively, with daily changes of 10, 8, and 0, and weekly changes of 4, 8, and 40 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on asphalt futures and spot markets. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Prices - The prices of various BU contracts (BU主力合约, BU06, BU09, etc.) showed different degrees of change from August 12th to September 10th. For example, the BU主力合约 price was 3506 on August 12th and 3450 on September 10th, with a daily change of 30 and a weekly change of -101 [4]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume on September 10th was 222,817, with a daily increase of 41,170 and a weekly decrease of 127,075. The open interest was 436,057, with a daily decrease of 940 and a weekly decrease of 55,837 [4]. Delivery Quantity - The delivery quantity remained at 26,890 from September 8th to 10th, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 2,900 [4]. Spot Market Prices - The spot market prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast) also had changes. For instance, the Shandong market price increased by 10 to 3,540 on September 10th compared to September 9th, with no weekly change [4]. Basis and Calendar Spread - The basis and calendar spread of different contracts (03 - 06, 06 - 09, etc.) showed fluctuations. For example, the 06 - 09 basis had a daily increase of 63 and a weekly increase of 36 on September 10th [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - The asphalt Brent crack spread was 89 on September 10th, with a daily decrease of 9 and a weekly increase of 67. Different types of refinery profits (ordinary refinery, Ma Rui - type refinery) also had corresponding changes [4]. Import Profit - The import profit from South Korea to East China was -101 on September 10th, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 49. The import profit from Singapore to South China was -923, with a daily decrease of 9 and a weekly decrease of 4 [4]. Related Prices - The prices of related products such as Brent crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and residual oil in the Shandong market also had certain changes. For example, Brent crude oil was priced at 66.4 on September 10th, with a daily increase of 0.4 and a weekly decrease of 1.2 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Prices and Trading Volume - The prices of BU main contract, BU06, BU09, BU12, and BU03 have shown different degrees of change from August 6th to September 4th. For example, the BU main contract price decreased from 3529 on August 6th to 3468 on September 4th, a daily change of -82 and an interval change of -3 [4]. - Trading volume increased from 219,521 on August 6th to 396,842 on September 4th, with a daily change of 152,545 and an interval change of 96,736. The open interest decreased from 455,367 on August 6th to 464,569 on September 4th, with a daily change of -28,631 and an interval change of 84,140 [4]. Spot Market Prices - The spot market prices of asphalt in different regions also changed. For example, the Shandong market price decreased from 3750 on August 6th to 3540 on September 4th, with a daily change of -10 and an interval change of 20. The East China market price remained stable at 3700 from August 27th to September 4th [4]. Basis and Spread - The basis and spread of asphalt contracts also showed different trends. For example, the Shandong basis increased from 221 on August 6th to 72 on September 4th, with a daily change of 72 and an interval change of 23. The BU06 - BU09 spread decreased from -142 on August 27th to -125 on September 4th, with a daily change of -44 and an interval change of 17 [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - The asphalt Brent crack spread increased from -67 on August 27th to 21 on September 4th, with a daily change of 70 and an interval change of 88. The asphalt Ma Rui profit increased from -128 on August 27th to -49 on September 4th, with a daily change of 64 and an interval change of 79 [4]. Related Prices - The price of Brent crude oil decreased from 68.6 on August 27th to 67.6 on September 4th, with a daily change of -1.5 and an interval change of -1.0. The Shandong market price of gasoline decreased from 7599 on August 27th to 7531 on September 4th, with a daily change of -22 and an interval change of -68 [4].