气候变化

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穿越不确定性迷雾 国际货币政策协调机制如何更进一步
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-08-08 07:59
新加坡金融管理局副行长梁新松也持相似观点。他谈到,近年来,主要经济体的政策溢出效应正显 著影响全球经济格局,其货币政策调整可能引发中小国家资本市场波动,而央行间的协作(如汇率干 预、政策沟通)能有效缓解汇率剧烈震荡。 梁新松还提到,在实践中全球货币政策协调面临多重现实阻碍。各国经济目标、政治逻辑及货币周 期的差异化难以调和,美国关税政策的不确定性更激化了这一矛盾。 意大利经济与财政部原部长乔瓦尼·物里亚(Giovanni TRIA)也提到了美国关税政策的影响。他谈 到,该政策对原有全球经济秩序形成冲击,加剧全球经济的不确定性与混乱,引发汇率剧烈波动,并削 弱市场对美元与美债的信心,危及货币政策与金融市场的稳定性,而维持金融市场稳定是当务之急。 "当前全球金融体系正处于关键转折期,美国新保护主义举措或颠覆现有格局。"乔瓦尼·物里亚解 释道,作为全球储备货币,美元赋予美国无限融资填补内外债的特权,但特朗普政府的关税政策不仅无 法解决美国赤字问题、恢复制造业就业,还致使美元短期走弱,引发市场对美元、美债稳定性乃至美国 法律体系信心的下降。由于资本流动受不确定性驱动,一旦市场对美元和美债信心崩塌,全球金融不稳 定将迅 ...
日本水稻面临极端高温,米价要再创新高了?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-08 07:37
Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing a significant rice supply shortage and price surge due to a record heatwave and minimal rainfall, impacting the country's main staple crop [1][2] Group 1: Weather Impact on Rice Production - Major rice-producing regions in Japan experienced the lowest rainfall in nearly 80 years in July, followed by extreme heat in August, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius [1] - The extreme weather conditions are occurring just before the rice harvest season, creating uncertainty around production levels [1] - The summer heat has already led to a 50% increase in rice prices compared to the previous year, with official data showing rice prices in June and May rising by 100.2% and 101.7% year-on-year, respectively [2] Group 2: Government Response and Agricultural Outlook - In response to the potential for another poor harvest, the Japanese government is encouraging farmers to expand planting beyond traditional yield limits and has formed a special task force to assist with irrigation [3] - Experts have differing views on the final rice yield; some predict a decline due to extreme weather, while others believe that increased planting area may mitigate some of the adverse effects [3] - The Japanese Ministry of Agriculture has stated that the exact production figures will only be known after the autumn harvest, with risks potentially spreading to other regions depending on future weather conditions [3] Group 3: Unique Market Conditions - Japan's rice crisis contrasts sharply with global markets, where favorable weather in major rice-producing countries has led to a decline in rice prices, easing food inflation for billions [4] - Japan maintains strict import controls on rice, allowing only 770,000 tons of duty-free rice annually, with tariffs on excess imports reaching 341 yen per kilogram (approximately $2.30), limiting the ability to stabilize domestic prices through imports [4] - Climate change poses a long-term challenge, with extreme heat events becoming more frequent, prompting Japan to explore adaptive measures such as rice cultivation in previously unsuitable regions like Hokkaido [4][5]
产品、投资、服务齐发力:上半年绿色保险发展提速
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-08-08 07:04
Core Viewpoint - Green finance is becoming a key driver for high-quality economic and social development in response to climate change and low-carbon transition, with the insurance industry playing a significant role in promoting the achievement of "dual carbon" goals [1] Policy Support - A series of policy measures have been introduced to guide the insurance industry in developing green finance, including the implementation plan for high-quality development of green finance in the banking and insurance sectors issued in January [2] - In May, the Central Committee and the State Council released opinions on improving the market-oriented allocation system for resource and environmental factors, emphasizing the development of green insurance products and services [2] Local Initiatives - Various local departments have launched green finance work plans tailored to regional characteristics, such as the action plans released by the People's Bank of China in Guangdong to support green low-carbon development [3] Product Innovation - Insurance institutions have increased innovation in green insurance products, expanding coverage and enhancing functionality in response to policy encouragement and market demand [4] - Notable examples include specialized insurance products for renewable energy projects, such as the first property insurance for the energy storage industry in Yunnan [4] Carbon Reduction Insurance - The first carbon loss insurance for distributed photovoltaic projects was launched in Hubei, allowing local communities to monetize carbon reduction achievements while providing compensation for losses due to natural disasters [5] Climate Change Response - The insurance industry is increasingly prioritizing climate change in strategic management, with many companies integrating climate policies into their operational practices [6][7] - The demand for weather index insurance is growing across various sectors, with over a hundred products already available nationwide [7] Financial Support for Green Industries - Insurance funds are highly compatible with the funding needs of green industries, with major insurance institutions increasing support for low-carbon and energy transition sectors [8] - As of March 2025, the scale of green investments by China Life Asset Management exceeded 450 billion yuan [8] Future Development Suggestions - Industry experts recommend enhancing investment in risk assessment technologies, promoting green insurance awareness, and strengthening talent development within insurance institutions [9]
法国“76年来最严重山火”仍在燃烧 上千人紧急撤离
Xin Hua She· 2025-08-07 14:39
Group 1 - The wildfires in France's Aude department are the largest in 76 years, with over 16,000 hectares burned, resulting in 1 death and 13 injuries, including 11 firefighters [1] - More than 2,100 firefighters and several aircraft are involved in firefighting efforts, with the fire still not under control despite a slight decrease in temperature and wind speed [1] - Approximately 3,000 homes remain at risk from the wildfires, and over 1,000 residents have been evacuated [1] Group 2 - The recent wildfires in Aude are linked to low rainfall and a decrease in vineyards, which traditionally help to slow the spread of fires [2] - A new wave of high temperatures is expected to hit southern France, increasing the risk of wildfires [2] - Since the beginning of summer, around 9,000 wildfires have been reported in France, primarily along the Mediterranean coast [2]
受气候影响 大堡礁硬珊瑚覆盖率大幅下降
Yang Shi Xin Wen Ke Hu Duan· 2025-08-07 07:29
Core Viewpoint - The Australian Institute of Marine Science reported a significant decline in hard coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef due to climate change and other factors, with an average decrease of approximately 14% to 30% in 2025 compared to 2024, and some reefs experiencing declines of over 70% [2] Summary by Relevant Categories Climate Impact - The primary cause of the decline in hard coral cover is attributed to the heatwave during the summer of the Southern Hemisphere in 2024 [2] Coral Reef Overview - The Great Barrier Reef, located off the northeast coast of Australia, spans over 2,000 kilometers and is the largest coral reef system in the world, recognized as one of the most complex natural ecosystems on Earth [2]
从陕西到河南,农民忙着抗旱
Hu Xiu· 2025-08-07 01:31
本文来自微信公众号:经济观察报 (ID:eeo-com-cn),作者:冯雨欣、田进,题图来自:视觉中国 2025年7月29日,河南省驻马店市汝南县气温达到37℃(摄氏度),当地农民张全整夜没合眼。 这一夜,张全只重复一件事情——给自家二三十亩的庄稼地浇水。每块地大概两三亩,浇完一块地就得挪动水管再浇下一块。第二天早上八点,他趁浇水的 间隙赶紧回家匆匆扒了几口饭,又立刻返回田里继续忙碌。 根据河南气象局监测数据,河南大部地区高温闷热天气持续至8月5日,而在此前的35天里,仅出现三天下小雨的天气。驻马店是本次河南干旱最严重的地区 之一,很多支流河道只剩下薄薄一层水,部分河床已裸露在外,水井也近乎干枯。渴了数月的玉米无法依靠自己的根系获得水分,正逐渐萎靡。 张全算了一笔账:一天一夜连续浇水,仅油费就需要花100多元,加上化肥、种子等前期投入,这二三十亩地一季的浇水成本预计有七八千元。对靠田吃饭 的他来说,压力又重了几分。可如果不浇水,玉米棒子就结得小且缺粒严重,这样的玉米很难卖出去。 这不是张全一个人的烦恼。今年夏季,河南、陕西、甘肃以及苏皖北部、山东等地经历了长时间的高温少雨天气,旱情严峻。与此同时,北京、河北、 ...
大堡礁珊瑚减少幅度之大创监测39年来纪录
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-08-07 00:43
新华社北京8月6日电 澳大利亚海洋科学研究所6日发布对大堡礁生态系统的最新年度监测报告,显 示大堡礁三个区域中有两个区域的珊瑚覆盖面积减少幅度创下开展监测39年来最高纪录。该机构担心, 大堡礁珊瑚白化现象随着全球变暖加剧,可能导致珊瑚难以恢复生长。 这是2021年6月2日在澳大利亚昆士兰拍摄的大堡礁(无人机照片)。新华社发(胡泾辰摄) 澳大利亚海洋科学研究所从1986年开始每年对大堡礁开展全面勘测。2024年8月至2025年5月的勘测 结果显示,大堡礁北部、南部和中部区域珊瑚覆盖面积比上一勘测周期分别减少约四分之一、近三分之 一和约14%,其中北部和南部区域流失幅度为启动监测以来最高。 研究所说,珊瑚大幅减少的主要原因是气候变化带来的高温导致大量珊瑚白化,另外,气旋以及以 珊瑚为食的棘冠海星数量暴增也是重要原因。 20世纪90年代以前,大范围珊瑚白化现象非常罕见,之后随着全球变暖变得频繁。1998年,大堡礁 首次出现这一现象;第二次发生在2002年;2016年和2017年首次接连出现,2020年、2022年、2024年、 2025年均出现大范围珊瑚白化。 这是2021年6月2日在澳大利亚昆士兰拍摄的大堡礁海域 ...
从陕西到河南,农民忙着抗旱
经济观察报· 2025-08-06 13:47
Core Viewpoint - Climate change is fundamentally altering agricultural practices in China, necessitating adjustments in crop selection and planting schedules to adapt to new weather patterns [1][3][30]. Group 1: Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture - The suitable regions for wheat cultivation are gradually shifting northward, requiring changes in sowing times for winter wheat and the introduction of flood-resistant rice varieties in northeastern China [1][3][30]. - Farmers are facing increased costs due to prolonged droughts and extreme weather, leading to higher irrigation expenses and reduced crop yields [2][3][20]. - The frequency of extreme weather events has increased, with a notable rise in high-temperature days and drought conditions affecting crop production across various regions [26][30]. Group 2: Adaptation Strategies - Farmers are beginning to adopt new planting strategies, such as using drought-resistant seeds and investing in irrigation infrastructure to cope with changing climate conditions [3][22][31]. - The Chinese government is initiating a nationwide agricultural climate zoning project to redefine crop planting areas based on current climate conditions [4][30]. - High-standard farmland construction is being promoted as a key method to mitigate the impacts of climate change, enhancing irrigation efficiency and reducing the risk of crop failure [32][31]. Group 3: Economic Implications for Farmers - The financial burden on farmers is increasing due to higher irrigation costs and reduced crop yields, leading some to reconsider their agricultural practices or exit farming altogether [2][27][28]. - In regions like Henan and Shaanxi, farmers report significant drops in income due to adverse weather conditions, with some expecting a 30% decrease in yields compared to previous years [12][20][27]. - The rising costs of labor and inputs for crop production are pushing farmers to shift from high-maintenance crops to more resilient options like wheat and corn [27][28].
气候变了,中国农民重新学习种地
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-08-06 12:39
2025年7月29日,河南省驻马店市汝南县气温达到37℃(摄氏度),当地农民张全整夜没合眼。 这一夜,张全只重复一件事情——给自家二三十亩的庄稼地浇水。每块地大概两三亩,浇完一块地就得 挪动水管再浇下一块。第二天早上八点,他趁浇水的间隙赶紧回家匆匆扒了几口饭,又立刻返回田里继 续忙碌。 根据河南气象局监测数据,河南大部地区高温闷热天气持续至8月5日,而在此前的35天里,仅出现三天 下小雨的天气。驻马店是本次河南干旱最严重的地区之一,很多支流河道只剩下薄薄一层水,部分河床 已裸露在外,水井也近乎干枯。渴了数月的玉米无法依靠自己的根系获得水分,正逐渐萎靡。 张全算了一笔账:一天一夜连续浇水,仅油费就需要花100多元,加上化肥、种子等前期投入,这二三 十亩地一季的浇水成本预计有七八千元。对靠田吃饭的他来说,压力又重了几分。可如果不浇水,玉米 棒子就结得小且缺粒严重,这样的玉米很难卖出去。 这不是张全一个人的烦恼。今年夏季,河南、陕西、甘肃以及苏皖北部、山东等地经历了长时间的高温 少雨天气,旱情严峻。与此同时,北京、河北、内蒙古等地却降水偏多,甚至引发洪涝。 异常的天气让农民面临一系列的挑战:河南周口、驻马店持续干旱 ...
气象学者魏科:我们已经身处危机时代,而不是在讨论一个遥远的未来
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-08-06 12:12
Group 1: Climate Change and Extreme Weather - Extreme weather events have become a norm, with global warming leading to more severe droughts and floods in specific regions [3][6][7] - The frequency of extreme weather events has significantly increased, with a notable rise in climate-related disasters over the past two decades [4][5] - China is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to its vast territory and complex geography, experiencing a higher rate of warming and natural disasters compared to the global average [5][6] Group 2: Agricultural Impact - Extreme weather is adversely affecting major grain-producing areas in China, with high temperatures and heavy rainfall impacting crop growth and increasing irrigation costs [3][13] - The growth of winter wheat is particularly sensitive to low-temperature periods, and insufficient cold weather can severely affect yields [13] - High temperatures can lead to increased water requirements for crops, further raising costs for farmers [13][15] Group 3: Preparedness and Response - Current preparations for climate change impacts are inadequate, with a significant gap between global carbon emissions and climate goals [9][10] - There is a need for a substantial increase in efforts to transition to renewable energy and improve agricultural infrastructure to adapt to extreme weather [10][16] - Agricultural companies must optimize crop varieties to withstand changing climate conditions, such as developing heat-resistant strains [15] Group 4: Economic Implications - Extreme weather events are likely to cause fluctuations in agricultural product prices, with "weather-related price hikes" becoming more common [17] - The impact of extreme weather on agriculture may necessitate new financial tools for insurance, including adjustments to disaster insurance designs [19] - Other industries, such as renewable energy and urban planning, will also need to adapt to the challenges posed by extreme weather [19][20]