研究人员介绍，在全球变暖背景下，此前针对南极冰架存续问题的研究主要关注大气变暖的影响，而他 们以整体视角重新审视了冰架存续能力，同时考量大气与海洋双重因素导致的质量损失，以估算冰架难 以维持现今形态的临界点。值得注意的是，本项研究给出的失稳临界点为最晚时限，实际冰架崩塌可能 更早发生。（完） 南极冰盖边缘的漂浮冰架能够抑制冰流汇入海洋，它们的消融将显著加速海平面上升。据开展这项研究 的法国研究人员介绍，他们通过气候模型分析了64个南极冰架。 结果显示，如果全球温室气体排放继续维持高水平，到2150年可能有大约41%的冰架无法稳定存在；到 2300年时，这一比例可能达到59%（即38个冰架），而这38个冰架约束的冰盖区域若完全消融，可能导 致全球海平面上升10米。如果能将全球变暖控制在2摄氏度以内，则绝大部分冰架可保持稳定，有效降 低海平面上升风险。 新华社伦敦11月3日电（记者郭爽）英国《自然》杂志近日发表的一项新研究显示，受气候变化影响， 近六成南极冰架到2300年时可能无法继续稳定存在。这可能导致全球海平面大幅上升，严重威胁沿海地 区生态与人类安全。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Ocean and Climate Village" world tour exhibition aims to enhance public understanding of the ocean's critical role in regulating the Earth's climate system, aligning with the United Nations' goals for sustainable ocean development [3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The exhibition is held in Shanghai from October 10 to 19, co-hosted by UNESCO's Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission and Prada Group [3]. - The event features various components, including a technology exhibition, photography exhibition, documentary screening, thematic discussions, and educational workshops [3]. - The exhibition is free to the public and has attracted over 12,000 visitors [3]. Group 2: Key Themes - The exhibition focuses on critical themes such as marine biodiversity, climate change, ocean acidification, sea level rise, and the impact of human activities on the ocean [3]. - It aims to achieve the seventh expected outcome of the UN's "Ocean Decade," which is to create an inspiring and attractive ocean [3]. Group 3: Expert Engagement - Experts from the Ocean Institute participated in discussions on "Ocean Literacy and Global Consensus," engaging with the public on topics related to ocean science, climate change, and public education [4].

1 机场跑道上的末日倒计时 飞机降落在图瓦卢唯一的机场时，跑道上的橄榄球赛正进行到酣处。孩子们赤脚追逐着滚动的球，汽车在跑道边缘穿梭，而跑道的尽头，海水已漫过防波 堤的缝隙，在烈日下泛着刺眼的银光。 这里没有红绿灯，机场就是全国最平整的地方——既是交通枢纽，也是球场、集市和庆典场所。旅行博主杨玲玲骑着一辆租来的摩托车，仅用13公里便从 南到北穿越了整个国家。车轮碾过的每一寸土地，最高处不超过海平面5米，而海浪声几乎始终在耳畔轰鸣。 富纳富提环礁风加法列岛上最窄的一段图源 | 国家地理中文网 这个由9个珊瑚环礁组成的太平洋岛国，陆地面积仅25.14平方公里，人口约1.2万。16世纪，西班牙航海家为其命名"Tuvalu"（意为"八岛之群"），但其中 8个岛屿的命名如今已显得讽刺——随着海平面上升，部分岛屿的淡水层被海水倒灌，椰树枯死，土地盐碱化，连种植芋头的田埂都浸在咸水中。 美国航空航天局（NASA）数据显示，过去30年图瓦卢海平面已上升0.15米，预计到2050年，首都富纳富提的大部分区域将被高潮位永久淹没。 2 气候签证：希望与困境的双刃剑 然而，真正的"反差"藏于日常细节：岛上大多数的杂货店由中国人经营， ...

Core Viewpoint - The study published in Cultural Heritage Magazine indicates that rising sea levels may threaten the iconic Moai statues on Easter Island as early as 2080, along with approximately 50 other cultural sites on the island [1] Group 1: Impact of Rising Sea Levels - The research highlights that waves could reach the island's largest ceremonial platform, which houses 15 significant Moai statues, potentially impacting the tourism economy that relies on these sites [1] - The main author of the study emphasizes that rising sea levels are a real and imminent threat, not a distant concern [1] Group 2: Methodology and Broader Implications - Researchers utilized computer simulations to assess the impact of future sea level rise on wave effects and overlaid these results with maps of cultural sites to identify areas at risk of flooding in the coming decades [1] - While the focus is on Easter Island, the findings reflect a broader reality that cultural heritage sites worldwide are increasingly threatened by rising sea levels, as noted in a recent UNESCO report identifying around 50 World Heritage sites at high risk from coastal flooding [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rising sea levels due to climate change are posing significant threats to coastal communities and ecosystems, necessitating urgent international cooperation and resource allocation to mitigate impacts and adapt to changes [2][9]. Group 1: Climate Change and Sea Level Rise - The World Meteorological Organization reports unprecedented sea level rise, with global sea levels increasing approximately 100 millimeters from 1993 to 2024 [3]. - China's coastal sea level is projected to be 96 millimeters higher than the historical average in 2024 due to climate change [3]. - A study indicates that even if global temperatures stabilize, nearly 40% of glacier mass is already lost, potentially leading to an additional 113 millimeters of sea level rise [3]. Group 2: Impact on Vulnerable Regions - Tuvalu, with an average elevation of only 2 meters, faces existential threats from rising sea levels, with most land and infrastructure expected to be below high tide by 2050 [6]. - Coastal cities like Alexandria in Egypt and Atafona in Brazil are experiencing severe erosion and flooding, with significant infrastructure at risk [6]. - The World Bank predicts that by 2050, there could be 216 million climate migrants globally, with cities like Dhaka and Bogotá expected to absorb millions of these migrants [7]. Group 3: Economic and Social Consequences - Rising sea levels are exacerbating coastal storm surges, damaging ecosystems, and threatening agriculture, fisheries, and tourism [8]. - The competition for climate aid is intensifying among major powers, impacting the effectiveness of multilateral climate mechanisms and increasing costs for clean technologies [8]. Group 4: International Response and Cooperation - The United Nations has emphasized the urgent need for global action against climate change, framing it as a survival threat [9]. - Multilateral mechanisms are crucial for addressing sea level rise, with various international organizations working to build consensus on climate action [9]. - Countries like the Netherlands are showcasing innovative water management strategies that could serve as models for other nations facing similar challenges [10].

Core Insights - A significant earthquake of magnitude 8.7 occurred off the eastern coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula, raising concerns among Pacific island nations [1] - Tuvalu's sea level has risen by 15 centimeters compared to the average of the past 30 years, with projections indicating that much of the country will be below high tide levels by 2050 [1] - Tuvalu, with an average elevation of 2 meters, is highly vulnerable to rising sea levels, flooding, and storm surges [1] Migration Initiatives - Tuvalu is collaborating with Australia to launch an unprecedented "climate visa" program, allowing 280 Tuvaluans to settle in Australia as permanent residents each year [1] - The signing of the "Farapili Alliance Treaty" in November 2023 is expected to facilitate the migration of 40% of Tuvalu's population within the next decade [1] - Other Pacific nations, such as Fiji and Vanuatu, are also experiencing similar crises and have begun to implement planned migration policies [1]

Group 1 - A significant earthquake of magnitude 8.7 occurred off the eastern coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula, raising concerns among Pacific island nations [1] - Tuvalu's sea level has risen by 15 centimeters compared to the average of the past 30 years, with projections indicating that much of the country will be below high tide levels by 2050 [1] - Tuvalu, with an average elevation of 2 meters, is highly vulnerable to rising sea levels, flooding, and storm surges [1] Group 2 - In November 2023, Tuvalu and Australia signed the "Fala Pilili Alliance Treaty," allowing 280 Tuvaluans to settle in Australia as permanent residents each year, with an expectation that 40% of the population will migrate within 10 years [3] - The first phase of applications for the migration program received 8,750 submissions, representing about 80% of Tuvalu's total population [3] - Other Pacific nations, such as Fiji and Vanuatu, are also developing planned migration policies in response to climate crises [3]

Group 1 - Tuvalu is planning a "national migration" in response to climate change, making it the first country to plan a complete relocation due to rising sea levels [1] - Over 80% of Tuvalu's residents have applied for climate visas to Australia, seeking refuge as the country faces the threat of being submerged within 25 years [1][2] - Tuvalu consists of 9 low-lying atolls with a total land area of only 26 square kilometers and a population of approximately 11,200, making it highly vulnerable to natural disasters [2] Group 2 - The average elevation of Tuvalu is only 2 meters above sea level, and NASA data indicates that sea levels around the country have risen by 15 centimeters over the past 30 years [2] - The "Fala Pilili Alliance Treaty" signed in November 2023 allows 280 Tuvaluans to settle in Australia as permanent residents each year, with rights similar to Australian citizens [2] - The first phase of visa applications opened from June 16 to July 18, 2023, with 8,750 individuals submitting applications for the lottery system [2] Group 3 - Approximately 4% of Tuvalu's population can migrate annually, which could lead to 40% of the population leaving within the next decade [3] - In addition to migration agreements, Tuvalu has initiated a strategy to become the world's first digital nation, involving 3D scanning and digital reconstruction of its islands [3] - Global sea level rise has exceeded expectations, affecting 1 billion people worldwide, with densely populated cities facing increased flood risks by 2050 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The unconventional measure of Tuvalu applying for migration visas highlights the vulnerability of humanity in the face of climate change, as evidenced by the lottery system determining the fate of its citizens [1]. Group 1: Migration and Climate Change - A total of 2,474 family groups, comprising 8,750 Tuvaluan citizens, applied for the "climate migration" lottery, with only 280 individuals set to receive permanent residency in Australia [1][2]. - Tuvalu's population is estimated to be between 9,500 and 11,000, making the participation in the lottery a significant national event [2]. Group 2: Environmental Challenges - Tuvalu, consisting of nine circular coral islands, has a total land area of only 26 square kilometers, with the highest point being 4.6 meters above sea level and an average elevation of just 2 meters [5]. - NASA's report indicates that the sea level around Tuvalu has risen by 0.15 meters over the past 30 years, with projections suggesting an additional rise of 20 centimeters or more by 2050, and potentially 0.5 to 1 meter by the end of the century [5]. Group 3: International Agreements - In response to the rising sea levels, Tuvalu and Australia signed the "Fale Apili Alliance Treaty" at the end of 2023, which provides annual permanent residency for 280 Tuvaluans along with various benefits such as education subsidies and health insurance [6]. Group 4: Digital Initiatives - Tuvalu announced a plan to migrate its national identity into the metaverse, aiming to create a digital twin of the nation to preserve its history, geography, and culture [9]. - The government seeks to establish blockchain-based digital passports to maintain governance and record vital events, despite internal controversies and uncertainties regarding international recognition [10].