Core Viewpoint - The oil price is expected to decrease in October after a period of stagnation in September, with a projected reduction of 75 yuan per ton due to a significant drop in international oil prices [1] Price Adjustment Details - The oil price adjustment will take place on October 13 at 24:00 [1] - The current crude oil change rate stands at -1.37% after nine working days of the ten-day statistical period [1] - The anticipated decrease in oil price translates to a reduction of approximately 0.06 to 0.07 yuan per liter [1]

【油价最新消息】截至2025年10月7日，今天，由于双节假期缘故，2025年第20次调价，本轮计价周期仍停滞在前6个工作日！从数据显示，9月30日，参考9 月29日国际油价下降，最新原油统计均价66.91美元/桶，原油变化率2.62%，汽柴油预估上涨140元/吨，参考92/95号汽油以及0号柴油，统计汽柴油上涨预期 在0.13元/升左右！ 2025年10月7日，星期二，农历八月十六，今天，国庆以及中秋假期进入尾声，按照汽柴油以10个工作日为周期，新周期第7个工作日进行中，此次油价调 整，市场呈现"过山车"的局面，前5个工作日显著上涨，第6个工作日后涨幅或逐步收窄，此次油价上涨或难兑现，汽柴油或将迎来今年第7次搁浅的局面！ 具体分析如下： 【油价前情回顾】按照汽柴油调价机制，上一次，今年第19次调价，原油变化率负值开端，但是，周期内，汽柴油涨至40元/吨！好在，周期末，原油价格 恢复下降，9月23日24时，9月第二次调价，油价调整幅度不足50元/吨的标准线，国内汽柴油迎来今年第6次搁浅的局面，9月份，成品油呈现二连搁浅的走 势！ 基于9月份汽柴油搁浅调价，截至目前，国内各地加油站，92/95号汽油以及0号柴油， ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming domestic oil price adjustment window is set to open on October 13, with expectations of a significant price increase prior to the National Day holiday being challenged by recent sharp declines in international oil prices [2][3]. Group 1: International Oil Price Trends - International crude oil prices have experienced a significant drop, with Brent crude futures closing at $64.36 per barrel, marking a weekly decline of over 7%, the lowest in nearly four months. WTI crude prices also fell sharply to $60.35 per barrel [3]. - The decline in oil prices is attributed to three main factors: increased production expectations from OPEC, weakened energy demand forecasts, and a decrease in geopolitical risk premiums [5][9]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Oil Prices - OPEC is expected to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with Saudi Arabia indicating a flexible approach to production adjustments based on market conditions. OPEC's oil output has been rising for five consecutive months [5]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has downgraded global oil demand growth for the third consecutive month, projecting an increase of only 700,000 barrels per day by 2025, a reduction of 350,000 barrels per day from earlier forecasts [9]. - Geopolitical risk premiums have decreased significantly, with current oil risk premiums down 40% compared to the period following the June Israel-Hamas conflict, suggesting further potential for price declines [9]. Group 3: Domestic Oil Price Adjustments - The rapid decline in international oil prices has led to a narrowing of the domestic crude oil change rate from a significant increase before the holiday to a slight increase of 0.69%, with the price increase dropping from 160 yuan per ton to 50 yuan per ton [10]. - If international oil prices remain at current levels, the domestic oil price adjustment on October 13 may not occur due to insufficient price increases [12]. - The outcome of the OPEC meeting on October 5, particularly regarding potential production increases, will directly impact oil price trends in the following week [14].

国庆出行福音！国内油价喜迎"两连停"，10月13日或迎变局 金秋九月，秋高气爽，眼看国庆长假在即，准备自驾出游的朋友们无疑迎来了一个好消息！ 今日， 2025年9月24日，国家发改委宣布，根据现行成品油价格形成机制，本轮国内油价调整因幅度不足每吨 50元而再次搁浅。这意味着，即将到来的国庆假期，车主们可以暂时不必为油费上涨而烦恼，尽情享受 旅途的乐趣。 有料财经独家解读：国际油价上涨，为何国内油价"按兵不动"？ 作为汽车领域优质创作者，有料财经（小天）将为您抽丝剥茧，深度解析本次油价搁浅背后的真相。本 周国际油价涨幅高达1.6%，为何未能带动国内油价上调？这其中，既有复杂的国际原油市场博弈，也 与国内成品油市场的供需关系息息相关。 美联储的利率政策转向： 9月份美联储降息25个基点，进一步刺激了油价上涨。 风险提示：关注国际油价，谨防"节后上涨" 有料财经提醒广大车主，目前国际油价上涨的趋势仍在延续。一旦布伦特原油价格突破每桶68美元，成 品油涨价幅度将会满足调价阈值，10月13日国内油价上调的概率将会大大增加。 附：9月24日全国各地汽柴油最高零售价格（仅供参考） 今日0时，中秋国庆假期期间，全国31个省区 ...

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that domestic gasoline and diesel prices will not be adjusted this time, maintaining a low price level across most regions [1] - Domestic refined oil prices have experienced nineteen rounds of adjustments, showing a pattern of "six increases, seven decreases, and six suspensions," with overall price declines of 405 yuan/ton for gasoline and 390 yuan/ton for diesel compared to the end of 2024 [1] - Current gasoline and diesel prices are slightly lower by about 0.1 yuan per liter compared to the same period in 2024, but have seen a larger decline compared to the end of 2023 [1] Group 2 - The international oil market is facing oversupply risks due to OPEC+'s strong production increase amid concerns over macroeconomic conditions and fossil fuel demand [2] - Brent crude oil futures prices have decreased by 4.04% to $73.93 per barrel from early 2024 to September 20, and by 11.33% to $65.6 per barrel since the beginning of this year [2] - The market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between geopolitical factors, demand resilience, and increased supply, which is influencing the recent downward trend in oil prices [2] Group 3 - The next price adjustment window will open on October 13, with expectations of a downward trend in refined oil prices based on current international oil price levels [3] - OPEC+ is set to initiate a new round of production increases starting in October, contributing to concerns over supply surplus amid a lack of significant escalation in geopolitical tensions [3] - Overall, the probability of a price decrease in the next round of refined oil adjustments is considered high due to the prevailing market conditions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming adjustment of gasoline and diesel prices in China, highlighting the impact of international oil price fluctuations on domestic fuel prices, especially before the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays [1][5]. Price Adjustment Review - In 2025, there have been 18 price adjustments prior to the current one, with 7 decreases, 6 increases, and 4 instances of price stasis [3]. - For the first half of 2025, gasoline and diesel prices fell by 330 yuan and 315 yuan per ton, respectively, while in the second half, they decreased by 75 yuan per ton [3]. - Overall, the annual reduction for gasoline and diesel in 2025 is 405 yuan and 390 yuan per ton, translating to a decrease of approximately 0.32 to 0.35 yuan per liter at gas stations [3]. Price Adjustment News - The 19th price adjustment cycle began with a planned decrease of 90 yuan per ton, but due to fluctuations in the oil market, the expected increase in domestic fuel prices shifted from a decrease to an increase [5]. - As of September 22, 2025, the average price of crude oil was reported at 62.64 USD per barrel, with a significant drop of 2.9% in oil prices during the current cycle [5][7]. Current Adjustment Status - As of September 23, 2025, the final adjustment for this cycle resulted in no change in gasoline and diesel prices due to the increase not meeting the required threshold for a price hike [7]. - The next price adjustment is scheduled for October 13, 2025, with expectations of a potential decrease in fuel prices based on current market trends [7].

Group 1 - The domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open on September 23 at 24:00, marking the last price adjustment before the National Day holiday [1] - According to monitoring data, the expected adjustment will be below the price adjustment red line, leading to stable fuel costs for drivers during the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [1] - International crude oil has shown a fluctuating upward trend during the current pricing cycle, with a reference crude oil change rate of 0.59% as of September 19, suggesting a potential increase of 25 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel, which does not reach the retail price adjustment limit of 50 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - With one working day remaining before the price adjustment window opens, there is a significant likelihood of price suspension due to declining U.S. oil demand and a global oversupply outlook [2] - If the price adjustment is suspended, it will mark the sixth suspension since 2025, maintaining unchanged fuel costs for residents and logistics during the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the latest developments in domestic oil price adjustments, indicating a potential increase in oil prices due to recent market trends and economic indicators [1]. Group 1: Oil Price Adjustments - As of September 22, the crude oil price change rate reached 0.29%, suggesting an expected increase of 30 yuan per ton in oil prices [1]. - The current price increase keeps oil prices within a range of suspended adjustments, with the next adjustment scheduled for September 23 at 24:00 [1]. - There is a possibility that oil prices may not be adjusted before the upcoming deadline, indicating no immediate need for consumers to refuel [1]. Group 2: International Oil Market Trends - Last week, international oil prices experienced a slight decline, with New York oil prices dropping by 0.02% and Brent oil prices decreasing by 0.46% [1]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut did not significantly boost optimism in the energy commodities market [1]. - Weakness in the U.S. job market, along with a slowdown in manufacturing and real estate activities, suggests a decrease in oil demand, contributing to a supply surplus in the market [1].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the last oil price adjustment before the National Day holiday is set to occur on September 23, with an expected increase in oil prices [1] - In September, there were two oil price adjustments, with the first adjustment resulting in a halt to price increases, while the second adjustment is expected to shift from a decrease to an increase [1] - The anticipated increase in oil prices is approximately 40 yuan per ton, nearing the adjustment threshold of 50 yuan per ton [1]

（来源：大众新闻） 根据油价10个工作日一调整的规则，在9月23日24时就要进行国庆放假前最后一次调整，在经过最近2周 的统计后，油价从预计下跌变成上涨状态，目前预计上调油价40元/吨，虽然还处于搁浅调整范围，但 是非常接近50元/吨上调标准。 2025年的油价到目前为止已经进行快9个月的调整，马上就要进行国庆放假之前的最后一次油价调整。 在9月共有2次油价调整，其中首次油价调整实现了由涨变搁浅调整，不过就要进行的9月第二次油价调 整，油价实现了由跌变涨，油价涨幅已经接近上调标准了。 ...