Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have recently experienced a significant drop, reaching a four-year low, but are expected to rise again, potentially surpassing 7 yuan per liter, impacting consumers' wallets [1][3]. Price Fluctuations - The recent adjustment in oil prices is expected to increase the cost by approximately 0.16 to 0.18 yuan per liter, translating to an additional 8 to 9 yuan for a full tank of 50 liters [1][3]. - Throughout the year, there have been 21 rounds of oil price adjustments, with 6 instances of price freezes, 9 decreases, and 6 increases, resulting in an overall decline of over 700 yuan per ton for gasoline [3]. Regional Price Variations - Current gasoline prices in various regions include: - Beijing: 6.84 yuan (92), 7.39 yuan (95) - Shanghai: 6.80 yuan (92), 7.24 yuan (95) - Jiangsu: 6.81 yuan (92), 7.25 yuan (95) - Other regions also show similar pricing trends, with predictions indicating a rise towards the 7 yuan mark for 92 gasoline in several areas [3][4]. Market Influences - The fluctuations in oil prices are primarily driven by international crude oil prices, which recently rebounded from around 60 dollars to approximately 62 dollars per barrel. Analysts suggest that if prices stabilize above 62 dollars, they could rise further to 65-67 dollars [4]. - Factors such as global supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate expectations contribute to the volatility in oil prices [4]. Consumer Sentiment - The rapid changes in oil prices create a perception of unpredictability among consumers, with price increases often occurring swiftly compared to decreases, leading to frustration regarding the transparency and frequency of adjustments [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Amid geopolitical factors, oil prices are expected to oscillate within a high - end range. Supply - side contradictions are prominent, with geopolitical risk premiums offsetting OPEC+ production increases. On the demand side, seasonal weakness coexists with Asian resilience, resulting in insufficient one - way driving forces. Before the Fed meeting, market caution will suppress risk appetite. Short - term oil prices may continue to oscillate at the upper end of the range, with risks of impulse - type increases due to geopolitical conflicts and corrections under macro - negative pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On September 15, 2025, crude oil futures prices showed differentiation. The SC main contract closed at 488.1 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent maintained narrow - range fluctuations. The SC - Brent spread dropped from $2.36/barrel on September 12 to - $0.15/barrel, indicating a significant narrowing of the domestic crude oil premium over the external market, even turning into a discount. The Brent - WTI spread strengthened to $4.77/barrel, a recent high, reflecting the support of geopolitical risks on European oil prices. The SC - WTI spread narrowed to $4.62/barrel, suggesting a compression of inter - regional arbitrage space [2]. 3.1.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, but its complex policies and geopolitical situations (especially supply concerns caused by sanctions on Russia) have two - way disturbances on the crude oil supply side. India's oil imports in August reached $13.2 billion, showing the resilience of Asian demand. Its imports may partially replace sanctioned Russian oil, alleviating the supply gap pressure. The impact of marginal changes in US shale oil drilling activities and tightened financial conditions on production remains to be observed [3]. - **Demand**: US oil demand is undergoing a seasonal transformation, weakening after the summer travel peak. Refineries entering the maintenance season may suppress short - term demand. Shrinking refined oil profits and expectations of Fed rate hikes suppress speculative demand, and market concerns about economic slowdown persist. However, high - level imports from emerging markets such as India may partially offset the weakening demand pressure in Europe and the US [4]. - **Inventory**: Current inventory data for Cushing and US commercial crude oil has not been updated, but the risk of an oil market surplus (accumulation of OECD country inventories) is gradually increasing. The US strategic petroleum reserve release plan may further increase market supply. Geopolitical risks leading to the reshaping of trade flows may cause inventory fluctuations in non - OECD countries [5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: SC rose by 2.69% to 488.1 yuan/barrel, WTI increased by 0.27% to $62.77/barrel, and Brent rose by 0.88% to $67.47/barrel. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices showed changes, with Oman rising by 1.71% to $70.95/barrel and Dubai rising by 2.13% to $71.12/barrel. - **Spreads**: The SC - Brent spread increased by 806.67% to $1.06/barrel, the SC - WTI spread increased by 39.47% to $5.76/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread increased by 9.1% to $4.70/barrel. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.30% to 97.32, the S&P 500 increased by 0.47% to 6,615.28 points, and the DAX index increased by 0.21% to 23,748.86 points. - **Inventory and开工**: US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.94% to 42,464.60 million barrels, Cushing inventory decreased by 1.51% to 2,385.70 million barrels, and the US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.64% to 94.90% [8]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: FU rose by 3.02% to 2,799 yuan/ton, LU increased by 3.31% to 3,375 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil increased by 1.65% to 232.90 cents/gallon. - **Spot and Paper Prices**: Some prices remained unchanged, while the Russian M100 CIF price increased by 2.03% to $452/ton. - **Spreads**: The Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 4.73% to 576 yuan/ton, and the LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread increased by 5.53% to - 1,845 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: Some inventory data showed decreases, such as Singapore's inventory decreasing by 3.18% to 2,652.80 million [9]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On September 15, India's trade ministry reported that India's oil imports in August reached $13.2 billion and gold imports reached $514 million [10]. - **Market Information**: OPEC+ continues to increase production but with complex policies. Geopolitical situations have resurfaced. The crude oil price strengthened and consolidated last week with limited amplitude. This week, the market will continue to focus on geopolitical developments. Supply concerns caused by sanctions on Russia still support the oil market, but the seasonal transformation of US oil demand and the prospect of an oil market surplus will continue to exert pressure. With the Fed meeting approaching, the market is cautious, and crude oil prices are expected to remain in consolidation with continued volatility [12]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to WTI, Brent, and SC contract prices and spreads, US crude oil production, refinery operating rates, and fuel oil prices and inventories, with data sources from WIND, EIA, iFinD, etc. [13][15][17]

Market Overview - The US stock market continued its downward trend, with the S&P 500 index declining for the fifth consecutive day, as investors are concerned about potential hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 152.81 points (0.34%) to close at 44,785.50 points, while the S&P 500 dropped by 25.61 points (0.40%) to 6,370.17 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 72.54 points (0.34%) to 21,100.31 points [2] Sector Performance - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, nine sectors experienced declines, with the consumer staples sector suffering the largest drop of 1.18% [4] - Walmart's stock plummeted by 4.5% after reporting quarterly profits that fell short of expectations, despite raising its full-year sales and profit forecasts due to tariff-induced cost increases [4] Company-Specific News - Coty Inc. saw its stock price crash by 21.4% as the company anticipates a decline in sales for the current quarter due to weak consumer demand in the US [5] - Walmart reported Q2 revenue of $177.4 billion, slightly above the market expectation of $176.16 billion, but its adjusted earnings per share of $0.68 fell short of the expected $0.74, marking the first time in three years that it did not meet analyst expectations [4] Economic Indicators - The US Department of Labor reported an increase of 11,000 in initial jobless claims to 235,000, the largest rise in nearly three months, while continuing claims rose to 1.972 million, the highest since November 2021, indicating signs of a cooling job market [5] - The housing market showed resilience, with the National Association of Realtors reporting that July existing home sales totaled an annualized 4.01 million units, exceeding market expectations of 3.92 million units and the previous value of 3.93 million units [5] Commodity Market - International oil prices rose on the 21st, with light crude oil futures for October delivery increasing by $0.81 to $63.52 per barrel (1.29% increase), and Brent crude oil futures for October delivery rising by $0.83 to $67.67 per barrel (1.24% increase) [5] - COMEX gold futures for the current month fell by $6.90, a decrease of 0.20%, settling at $3,381.60 per ounce [6]

Market Overview - The three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.46%, S&P 500 down 0.30%, and Nasdaq down 0.38% due to tariffs and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] - Technology stocks mostly declined, with Meta, Tesla, and Apple each falling over 1%, while Google rose 1.56% [1] - Novo Nordisk, a leader in weight-loss drugs, plummeted 21% after lowering its full-year earnings guidance, negatively impacting the healthcare sector [1] Chinese Market Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.35%, continuing its downward trend [1] - Li Auto led the decline with a drop of 6.20%, followed by JD.com down 3.01%, Baidu down 2.91%, and both Alibaba and NIO down over 2% [1] - Tencent Music and Manbang saw slight increases amidst the overall market decline [1] Economic Sentiment - Concerns over tariffs are contributing to foreign capital outflow pressures [1] - Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but the market largely anticipates that the Fed will maintain current rates in its upcoming policy meeting [1] - Goldman Sachs warned that tariff risks could reignite recession fears, leading to increased market volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the US dollar is contingent on the underlying factors driving interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Analysts from Deutsche Bank suggest that if the bets on rate cuts are driven by limited inflation impacts from US tariffs, the dollar may rebound in the short term [1] - Conversely, if these expectations stem from the assumption that the Federal Reserve will yield to political pressure to cut rates, the dollar could face further declines [1] - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July [1] Group 2 - Any dissenting votes from policymakers against maintaining the current rate, in favor of cuts, could heighten concerns about the Federal Reserve becoming more politicized [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price plummeted by 3.2%, breaking the critical support level of $3,230 per ounce for the first time since November last year, causing significant turmoil in the global precious metals market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices were fluctuating around $3,280 before the release of the U.S. Labor Department's PPI data, which exceeded expectations, leading to a surge in the probability of a 75 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in July from 67% to 89% [2]. - The London gold price hit a low of $3,218 per ounce, with a daily fluctuation of $62, while domestic gold futures fell by 2.7%, closing at 412 yuan per gram [2]. - The trading volume of COMEX gold futures surged by 240%, with open interest decreasing by 15%, indicating a forced exit of many long positions [2]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to the Decline - A significant outflow from gold ETFs was noted, with the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares, seeing a reduction of 8.7 tons in holdings, marking the largest single-day outflow since 2021 [3]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance indicated two more rate hikes in 2023, with the terminal rate expectation raised to 5.75% [5]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 3.85%, reaching a new high since April [5]. - The U.S. dollar index increased by 1.3% to 103.2, leading to a decline in non-U.S. currencies [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Some investors viewed the drop as a buying opportunity, with a private fund manager in Zhejiang starting to build positions around $3,220, believing the market was oversold [7]. - Conversely, many retail investors panicked, with a trading platform reporting a fivefold increase in liquidation orders during the early hours, primarily for loss-cutting [7]. - A futures trading competition participant reported a profit of 370,000 yuan in a single day from short positions [7]. Group 4: Analyst Perspectives - Technical analysis suggests that with the breach of $3,230, the next key support levels are at $3,180 (200-day moving average) and $3,100 (September low) [8]. - Analysts generally expect gold to remain weak and volatile ahead of the July Federal Reserve meeting [8]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a year-end target price of $2,300 for gold, viewing the current pullback as a buying opportunity, while JPMorgan warns that if the dollar continues to strengthen, gold prices could drop to $3,100 [9].

Market Overview - The A-share market transitioned from strong to weak last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 3300 points, experiencing a nearly 2% drop on Friday. The weekly decline was 1.72% for the Shanghai Composite Index, 3.46% for the Shenzhen Index, and 4.87% for the ChiNext Index, indicating a significant pullback in growth stocks, while the dividend index rose approximately 1.04% [1][11]. Industry Performance - The average decline of Wind's first-level industry indices was 1.84%, with only 38% of the Wind Top 100 concept indices showing positive returns. Steel, real estate, and food and beverage sectors performed relatively well, with increases of 3.18%, 2.22%, and 1.77% respectively. In contrast, the previously strong TMT sector saw significant declines, with computer, media, and communication sectors dropping by 7.82%, 8.00%, and 9.64% respectively [1][11][12]. Fund Issuance - A total of 31 funds were issued last week, including 22 equity funds, 3 mixed funds, and 6 bond funds, with a total issuance of 427.57 billion units [1][17]. Fund Performance - The Wind China Fund Total Index fell by 1.56% last week, with the ordinary equity fund index down 2.73% and the mixed equity fund index down 3.11%. The bond fund index saw a smaller decline of 0.22% [2][8]. Global Market Context - Global market sentiment was affected by rising risk aversion, with major overseas indices under pressure. The Nasdaq index led the decline with over 5%, while the Nikkei 225 and the Korean Composite Index fell by 4.18% and 4.59% respectively, reflecting concerns about the current economic outlook [3][4]. Commodity Market - The BDI dry bulk index surged by 18.14% due to a rebound in shipping demand, while copper, crude oil, and gold experienced varying degrees of decline. NYMEX natural gas prices plummeted by approximately 7% due to weak demand [5]. Currency Market - The US dollar index saw a slight increase, with non-US currencies showing mixed performance [6]. Bond Market - The bond market experienced a low-level recovery, with improved market sentiment. The 10-year government bond futures remained stable, while the 30-year futures saw a slight decline of 0.34% [14]. High-Frequency Indicators - Various high-frequency indicators showed stability in monetary policy, with the 7-day reverse repo rate at 1.500% and the 1-year MLF rate at 2.000%, indicating no changes compared to the previous week [16].