Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex impacts of rising oil prices on global markets, emphasizing the need to understand both direct and indirect effects stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their implications for various industries [3][4]. Group 1: Direct Impacts of High Oil Prices - Direct impacts are driven by the rapid increase in oil prices, leading to higher costs and increased demand for substitutes. Industries heavily reliant on energy and refined products, such as mining, metallurgy, and agriculture, are particularly affected [4]. - The demand for substitutes is rising in energy and chemical sectors, with expansions in new energy sources and coal chemical products [4][6]. - The cost shock is evident in high-energy-consuming industries, with significant impacts on fertilizer and diesel costs affecting agricultural products [6][10]. Group 2: Indirect Impacts of High Oil Prices - Indirect impacts include changes in policies and long-term expectations, such as export restrictions on key energy and chemical raw materials and adjustments in central bank policies in response to currency pressures [4][11]. - The anticipated changes in monetary policy, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, are influenced by rising oil prices and inflation expectations [12][31]. - The article highlights the potential for a shift in global demand, particularly as overseas manufacturing faces disruptions, which may benefit China's energy supply stability and lead to increased exports of certain raw materials and downstream products [10][21]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Production Adjustments - Domestic refinery operations have significantly decreased following the Middle East conflict, coinciding with a seasonal maintenance period, raising concerns about future production levels [13][15]. - The tightening of chemical raw material supply in Asia is exacerbated by reduced output from Japanese and Korean refineries, which previously supplied significant quantities of aromatics to China [15][17]. - The article notes that the aluminum supply from the Middle East is constrained due to production halts and damage to facilities, while European aluminum production is also affected by rising energy costs [21]. Group 4: Energy and Chemical Substitution - The article discusses the shift towards alternative energy sources, including battery technologies and biofuels, as a response to tightening oil and gas supplies [24][29]. - The domestic coal market remains crucial, with recent price increases driven by production regulations and seasonal demand for coal in power generation [24]. - The potential for coal-to-olefins processes to fill gaps left by oil and gas supply constraints is highlighted, although challenges remain in maintaining profitability for certain production methods [29]. Group 5: Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations - The article raises questions about the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions, suggesting that current inflationary pressures are primarily driven by oil price increases [31][32]. - There is a noted divergence in market expectations regarding interest rate adjustments, with potential for a prolonged period of higher rates if inflation persists [35][38]. - The article emphasizes that the Fed's response to inflation will depend on sustained price increases and broader economic conditions, indicating a cautious approach to monetary tightening [38].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information available 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 30, 2026, most domestic futures main contracts rose. The shipping index for European routes increased by over 6%, while caustic soda dropped by over 4%. The market is significantly influenced by the tense situation in the Middle East, with expectations of inflation rising and potential impacts on various commodity prices. Different commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends [6][7][11] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of the close on March 30, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. The shipping index for European routes increased by over 6%, and lithium carbonate, Shanghai tin, fuel oil, and pure benzene rose by over 4%. In terms of declines, caustic soda dropped by over 4%, and synthetic rubber and industrial silicon fell by over 2%. In the stock index futures market, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.33%, while the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.23%. In the bond futures market, all varieties rose. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:23 on March 30, funds flowed into the Shanghai gold 2606 and Shanghai silver 2606 contracts, and flowed out of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 2606 and CSI 2606 contracts [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Commodities 3.2.1 Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and closed high, turning positive at the end. Tensions in the Middle East may push up oil prices and reignite inflation, with some Fed officials sending hawkish signals. Global copper smelting capacity is shrinking, and the utilization rate of recycled copper smelting capacity has declined. In March, the expected output of electrolytic copper in China increased, but there are maintenance plans in the second quarter, which will lead to a decline in output. Currently, overseas copper inventories are high, and imports may increase. Copper demand has increased, but terminal consumption in the automotive and new - energy vehicle sectors has declined. In the long - term, the supply - tight situation supports copper prices [9][11] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and closed high, rising by over 4% during the day. In March, the start - up rate decreased, and in February, imports increased year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, upstream production gradually increased, but there is a high probability of domestic lithium mine复产, which is a potential negative factor. In April, the production of lithium batteries increased, but the inventory of lithium carbonate showed a trend of accumulation, and downstream demand growth may slow down. The rise in the futures price is mainly due to supply - side disruptions, and the overall domestic supply of lithium mines still needs to be monitored for the domestic复产 rhythm. The situation in the Middle East may affect the price of lithium carbonate [12] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected. The market focuses on the situation in the Middle East. Iran's oil production and exports are large, and the near - halt of the Strait of Hormuz has led to production cuts in Middle Eastern oil - producing countries. Although IEA has released strategic oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The U.S. has relaxed some sanctions, and Iraq has reached an agreement to resume oil exports. However, the situation in the Middle East remains tense, and the risk of an oil price spike still exists [14] 3.2.4 Asphalt - Last week, the asphalt start - up rate decreased, and the planned production in April decreased significantly. After the Spring Festival, downstream construction rates mostly increased, and shipments increased, but they are still at a low level. The inventory rate of asphalt plants decreased slightly. The market is worried about a shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries due to the situation in the Middle East. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East [15][16] 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PP increased slightly, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday level. On March 28, the start - up rate of PP enterprises decreased, and the production ratio of standard products decreased. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories have decreased. The conflict in the Middle East still exists, and the risk of oil supply interruption has not been eliminated. The supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. It is expected that the price of PP will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream复产 and the Middle East situation [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - On March 28, the plastic start - up rate remained at around 80%. As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PE increased, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday level. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories have decreased. The conflict in the Middle East still exists, and the risk of oil supply interruption has not been eliminated. New production capacity has been put into operation in 2026, and the start - up rate has continued to decline recently. The supply - demand pattern of plastic has improved, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. It is expected that the price of plastic will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream复产 and the Middle East situation [19] 3.2.7 PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region is stable. The start - up rate of PVC increased, and the downstream average start - up rate also increased, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. Some overseas device loads have decreased, and export prices have increased. Social inventories have increased slightly, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. PVC has the expectation of anti - involution, and the upstream raw material supply is tight. It is recommended to wait and see for now [20][21] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low, falling during the day. Domestic mine production resumed smoothly, but the output of clean coal decreased. Downstream coking enterprises and steel mills increased their inventories, and coke production increased. High - end coking coal has no market at the asking price, and market acceptance of high prices is low. The impact of the Middle East situation on coking coal has weakened, and it is expected that the price will gradually return to the fundamental logic [22] 3.2.9 Urea - The urea spot market was stable on the weekend, and the trading activity was acceptable. Factories have pending orders and no pressure to reduce prices. Internationally, urea is in short supply, while in China, supply is relatively abundant. After the end of agricultural demand, the downstream mainly depends on compound fertilizer factories. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer factories has increased, and the inventory of urea factories has decreased significantly. It is expected that urea will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The concern about the escalation of the Middle - East situation still exists, causing gold and silver prices to rise and then fall. The expectation of peace talks between the US and Iran has significantly improved the sentiment, but there is still a possibility of the Middle - East situation escalating, so the gold price will fluctuate. The cease - fire negotiation between the US and Iran has reached a deadlock, and the risk appetite has decreased, leading to a decline in the silver price. The uncertainty of the US - Iran peace - talk expectation is high, but the sentiment has eased, and the silver price will also fluctuate [4][5]. - The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and the rising expectation of interest - rate hikes have led to the gold price continuing to give back its gains in recent years. With the upcoming mid - term elections, there is still support from the macro - aspect [10][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The concern about the escalation of the Middle - East situation still exists, and the gold price rose and then fell. US and European stock markets closed down. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.81 basis points to 4.428%. The US dollar index rose 0.26% to 100.19. The COMEX gold futures rose 2.59% to $4489.70 per ounce. The basis was - 3.6, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. The gold futures warehouse receipts decreased by 99 kilograms to 106,644 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the long position of the main force decreased [4]. - **Silver**: The concern about the escalation of the Middle - East situation still exists, and the silver price rose and then fell. US and European stock markets closed down. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.81 basis points to 4.428%. The US dollar index rose 0.26% to 100.19. The COMEX silver futures rose 2.70% to $69.77 per ounce. The basis was - 14, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,500 kilograms to 371,799 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the long position of the main force decreased [5][6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The expectation of peace talks between the US and Iran has significantly improved the sentiment, but the Middle - East situation may still escalate, and the gold price will fluctuate. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to 1.6 yuan per gram [4]. - **Silver**: The cease - fire negotiation between the US and Iran has reached a deadlock, and the risk appetite has decreased, leading to a decline in the silver price. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to about 2,000 yuan per kilogram. The uncertainty of the US - Iran peace - talk expectation is high, but the sentiment has eased, and the silver price will fluctuate [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - G7 meeting to discuss the release of strategic oil reserves (time to be determined); - The Bank of Japan to release the summary of opinions of the deliberation members at the March monetary policy meeting at 07:50; - Switzerland's March KOF economic leading indicator at 15:00; - UK's February central bank mortgage approvals at 16:30; - Eurozone's March economic sentiment index and the final value of the March consumer confidence index at 17:00; - Germany's March CPI preliminary value at 20:00; - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech and the US March Dallas Fed business activity index at 22:30; - FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams to give a speech at 04:00 the next day [16]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and the rising expectation of interest - rate hikes have led to the gold price continuing to give back its gains in recent years. With the upcoming mid - term elections, there is still support from the macro - aspect [10]. - **Silver**: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and the rising expectation of interest - rate hikes have led to the gold price (should be silver price here) continuing to give back its gains in recent years. With the upcoming mid - term elections, there is still support from the macro - aspect. The photovoltaic and technology sectors support the silver price, and the low spot inventory and hot supply - shortage game are also positive factors [13][15]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 Shanghai gold holders decreased by 1,974 to 147,144, a decrease of 1.32%. The short position increased by 2,307 to 44,494, an increase of 5.47%. The net position decreased by 4,281 to 102,650, a decrease of 4.00% [41]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 Shanghai silver holders increased by 238 to 240,033, an increase of 0.10%. The short position increased by 1,561 to 214,706, an increase of 0.73%. The net position decreased by 1,323 to 25,327, a decrease of 4.96% [44]. - **ETF**: The SPDR gold ETF position remained flat, and the silver ETF position decreased slightly [46][48]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease but remained at a high level, and Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease [50][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, there are doubts about the so - called US - Iran peace talks. The US is reported to be formulating a "fatal blow" military plan against Iran, and Iran believes the US negotiation stance is a "third deception" plan. Oil prices have risen again, the Fed's interest - rate hike expectations have resurfaced, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields have strengthened significantly, and global risk appetite has cooled significantly. Domestically, the Chinese economy rebounded better than expected from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than those in 2025. The short - term trading logic of the market focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short term, the domestic economy is better than expected, but due to the mixed geopolitical news in the Middle East, the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. [3][4] - For assets, the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; government bonds fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; in the commodity sector, black metals fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; non - ferrous metals fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; energy and chemical products fluctuate significantly in the short term, and it is advisable to go long cautiously; precious metals fluctuate significantly and weaken in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas, doubts about the US - Iran peace talks, rising oil prices, resurgent Fed interest - rate hike expectations, strengthening of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and cooling of global risk appetite. Domestically, the economy and inflation are better than expected in January - February, and the goals and policy intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The short - term stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. [3] - Asset suggestions: short - term cautious wait - and - see for stock indices, government bonds, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals; short - term cautious long - position for energy and chemical products. [3] 3.2 Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as insurance, communication services, and photovoltaics, the domestic stock market continued to decline significantly. The economy and inflation are better than expected from January to February, and the goals and policy intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The short - term trading logic focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks, and the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously in the short term. [4] 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell on Thursday night. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 980.08 yuan/gram, down 2.83%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 16841 yuan/kilogram, down 5.66%. Spot gold restarted its decline, and finally closed down 2.85% at 4377.95 US dollars/ounce; spot silver finally closed down 4.32% at 68.11 US dollars/ounce. Precious metals fluctuate significantly and weaken in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. [5] 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets declined slightly on Thursday, and the trading volume was low. The real demand improved marginally, the apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 19.49 tons week - on - week, and the inventory decline continued to expand. The supply decreased slightly this week, but the molten iron output increased. The steel market will follow the cost in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price adjustment risk after the cost decline. [6][7] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore rebounded significantly on Thursday, and the futures performance was relatively strong. There are rumors of setbacks in iron ore negotiations. The demand for iron ore is still resilient, and the supply has increased. It is expected that the room for further price increase is limited, and attention should be paid to the phased adjustment risk after the energy price weakens. [7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded on Thursday, and the futures continued to fluctuate. The alloy prices were supported by the rebound of crude oil prices. The operating rate of silicon manganese increased slightly, and the daily output decreased slightly. The steel procurement in March has basically ended, and the market is waiting for the situation in April. It is advisable to treat the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with a slightly bullish and fluctuating mindset. [8] 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The copper spot TC is close to - 70 US dollars/ton, a new low. The by - product income makes up for the smelting profit. The refined copper production growth rate is high. The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The inventories at home and abroad are accumulating, and the social inventory has decreased significantly. The sustainability of inventory reduction needs to be observed. [9] - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, due to Iran's opposition to the US proposal, the risk appetite decreased, but the aluminum price was supported. The domestic primary aluminum production increased significantly from January to February, and the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas may change temporarily. The domestic primary aluminum import remains high, and the supply pressure still exists. [9] - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory continued to decline to 21.44 tons on Thursday, but it is still at a high level in recent years. The zinc ore processing fees in some regions have rebounded, and the domestic smelting output remains relatively high. The demand is not optimistic. [9][10] - **Lead**: The imports of refined lead and crude lead increased significantly from January to February. The production of primary lead and secondary lead increased seasonally. The demand is entering the off - season, and the social inventory of primary lead has decreased. The LME lead inventory is at a high level in the same period in recent years. [11] - **Nickel**: Indonesia may levy a windfall tax on nickel from April 1. The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and the MHP supply may decline. The nickel price has support below, but the upside is limited due to high inventories at home and abroad. [12] - **Tin**: The imports of tin ore from Myanmar increased significantly in the first two months, and the import sources are more diversified. The demand is not good overall, but the social inventory has decreased due to downstream replenishment. [13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fell 0.64% on Thursday. The supply and demand are both strong, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the support range, and it is advisable to lay out positions at low prices. [14] - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon rose 0.58% on Thursday. The supply and demand are both weak, the production capacity is surplus, and the inventory is at a high level. It is priced close to the cost, and it is advisable to operate within the range. [15] - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon fell 2.78% on Thursday. The inventory is continuously accumulating at a high level, and the spot price is falling. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable for short - sellers to hold positions cautiously or take profits in a timely manner. [15] 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US sent mixed signals, and the market is not sure if the US - Iran negotiation will end the Middle - East conflict quickly. Trump postponed the strike on Iran's energy facilities by 10 days. The short - term oil price will face a pattern of a slightly rising center and increased volatility. [16] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is affected by high prices. The supply is low, and the short - term absolute price will fluctuate significantly with the oil price. [16] - **PX**: The PX price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream start - up recovery is slow, and it is affected by negative feedback. It is likely to fluctuate in the short term. [17] - **PTA**: The PTA price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious, and the rebound space is limited. It will remain slightly bullish and fluctuating before the oil price rises significantly. [17] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price rebounds slightly with the rising oil price. The port inventory reduction is limited, and the export expectation is increasing. The basis has strengthened slightly and is likely to fluctuate after a decline. [18] - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price remains slightly bullish and fluctuating with the rising oil price. The downstream production reduction suppresses the recovery space, but it can be supported by the cost in the later stage. [18] - **Methanol**: The inland methanol market is strong, and the port basis has strengthened. The inventory at the port and production enterprises has decreased. The supply has tightened, and the fundamentals have been repaired. The price is still firm, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes caused by geopolitical relaxation and downstream negative feedback. [19] - **PP**: The price of PP is supported by the continuous inventory reduction. The market is expected to remain strong, and the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz is the main uncertainty. [20] - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE price is firm. The supply is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the inventory is being reduced rapidly. It is expected to continue to operate strongly, and geopolitical dynamics are the key variables affecting the external supply. [21] - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand shows a pattern of "weak agricultural and strong industrial", and the export policy window is closed. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. [22][23] 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The 05 - month soybean contract on the CBOT market closed down 0.06% overnight. The US soybean export sales increased significantly in the week ending March 19. Attention should be paid to the revised biofuel blending target and the end - of - month planting area report on Friday. [24] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of imported soybeans and soybean meal is decreasing rapidly, supporting the soybean meal basis. The risk of delayed shipment and arrival of Brazilian soybeans still exists. The rapeseed meal inventory has increased, and it fluctuates with the soybean meal. [24] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the supply is tight in the short term, supporting the basis. The supply pressure of rapeseed oil may increase, and it is under pressure along with soybean and palm oil. [25] - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose 0.35% overnight, supported by the strong Chicago soybean oil price, rising crude oil price, and strong export data. The domestic palm oil import is affected by the inverted profit, and the market transaction is light. [25] - **Corn**: The national corn price adjusts within a narrow range. The futures price fluctuates strongly, supporting the spot market. The sales of grassroots grain sources in the producing areas have slowed down, and the inventory at ports and deep - processing enterprises is low. However, the acceptance of high - priced corn by downstream feed enterprises is decreasing, and the possible rice auction in early April may have a negative impact. [26] - **Hogs**: The pig production capacity is in the pain period of adjustment, the demand is slightly improving but still in the off - season, and the breeding loss is increasing. The short - term futures and spot prices may continue to fall, and there are risks in the futures market. [27][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities and financial futures, taking into account factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Most of the varieties are expected to show short - term oscillatory trends, with some having long - term investment value or facing specific supply - demand challenges [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: Due to the repeated Middle - East situation, risk - aversion sentiment has risen again, and the market is cautious. Although the deep discount of index futures has slightly converged, IF, IC, and IM are still at extremely low historical levels. Supported by domestic policy expectations, the downside is limited, and it will mainly oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With large differences in negotiation conditions between the US and Iran, and the possibility of "fighting while negotiating" being high, the weekend military buildup of the US may intensify the situation. The impact of risk - aversion sentiment gradually outweighs inflation concerns, and the bond market will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term [3]. - **Container Shipping on the Europe Line**: The market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Near - month contracts are suppressed by shipowners' price cuts to grab cargo and weak spot freight rates, while far - month contracts are supported by continuous geopolitical risks. The situation of detouring around the Red Sea continues, and EU customs reform may stimulate early shipments. It will maintain a differentiated oscillatory trend in the short term [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: Iran deems US negotiations as deception, and the Middle - East conflict raises inflation concerns, delaying the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The uncertainty of US tariff policies and fiscal pressure strengthen the weak - dollar logic, and supply disruptions from South African mining enterprises provide support. It will oscillate weakly in the short term and has long - term investment value [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: The deadlock in geopolitical negotiations boosts oil prices, causing precious metals to experience a secondary correction. The response to negative news gradually decreases. Trump's delay in the strike provides a breathing opportunity, and the expectation of Fed rate hikes rises. Policy uncertainty restricts the rebound, and it will maintain a low - level oscillatory pattern [5][6]. - **Copper**: Geopolitical uncertainty dominates, and the market is cautious, lacking strong upward momentum. Domestic social inventories continue to decline significantly, and downstream restocking supports demand. However, smelter shipments are limited, and imported supplies do not increase much. There is a game between macro - suppression and fundamental de - stocking, and the price will oscillate within a narrow range [6]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of tightened macro - liquidity dominates the trend. Hawkish signals from the Fed suppress the valuation of commodities, and both domestic and foreign aluminum prices decline. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is at a high level, social inventories enter the accumulation cycle, downstream purchases as needed, consumption recovery is less than expected, and the decline in alumina prices weakens cost support. The price will oscillate weakly under the game of multiple factors [6]. - **Alumina**: The industry's operating rate remains high, the market supply - demand is becoming more relaxed, the import supply of bauxite is stable, and cost support weakens. Domestic inventory pressure gradually accumulates, and with macro - funds leaving for risk - aversion, the price drops slightly. The tight balance at the mine end limits the downside, and it shows an oscillatory consolidation trend [7]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum alloy strongly follows the Shanghai aluminum price. Due to tight raw materials and the impact of illegal tax - refund policies, there is strong support at the bottom [8]. - **Zinc**: On the supply side, Iran has little impact on the supply end. Imported TC declines again, while domestic TC remains stable. Domestic smelters maintain high production enthusiasm, continuously releasing pressure. On the demand side, downstream demand is delayed, inventories seasonally accumulate, and inventory pressure is high, showing a differentiation from overseas. Attention should be paid to the inventory turning point at low prices, and it will mainly oscillate following the sector [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Indonesia plans to implement nickel windfall and export taxes in April, and policy expectations consolidate the price bottom. As the expectation of US - Iran negotiations rises, nickel ore shipments gradually resume, but shipping costs are high. New - energy demand is weak, and downstream stainless - steel buyers are highly cautious. It will oscillate under the resonance of supply - demand and policies [9]. - **Tin**: Uncertainty in macro - news suppresses the price. After a weakly oscillatory period, it rebounds slightly, and its fundamental negatives have been fully released. The impact of Myanmar's resumption of production and Indonesia's increased exports weakens, downstream purchasing sentiment warms up, and spot trading is active. The core driver is still macro - geopolitical factors, and it will oscillate in the short term [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the supply side, Zimbabwe's ban on lithium - concentrate exports continues, and the复产 progress of Yichun mining areas in China is slow, significantly reducing global supply elasticity and strengthening the expectation of raw - material shortages. On the demand side, it maintains resilience, with the energy - storage field continuing to develop, and downstream rigid demand is firmly supported. In terms of inventory, social inventories remain low, smelter inventories are at a three - year low, and downstream available inventory days are few. The low - inventory environment amplifies market sentiment. The market is driven by the tight supply - demand balance and capital sentiment, showing an oscillatory and upward trend [10]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The current core contradiction in the market is the imbalance between supply and demand. The supply side is moderately increasing production, and there are expectations of further production increases, exerting supply pressure. On the demand side, the recovery of the photovoltaic downstream is less than expected. High inventories and insufficient demand jointly dominate the market trend [10]. - **Lead**: Fundamentally, primary lead smelting is steadily resuming production, and the opening of the import window brings obvious upward pressure, but most secondary lead producers are in a loss. On the demand side, terminal consumption is gradually recovering, and downstream orders are mainly for restocking. In the future, with inventory reduction and cost support, the lead price is expected to oscillate strongly [11][12]. Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Rising oil prices drive up coking coal prices. Tight iron - ore inventories and rising shipping costs provide cost support. High inventories and high warehouse receipts of hot - rolled coils limit the upside. Pig - iron production is slowly recovering, steel - mill profitability is limited, and real - estate and infrastructure policies support demand. The rebound height is restricted under cost support [13]. - **Iron Ore**: It is significantly driven by events, with a complex mix of long and short factors in the market. The domestic and foreign demand momentum is weak, supply shipments are gradually recovering, and rising fuel costs provide support. Steel - mill复产 drives up pig - iron production, and the structural shortage of port inventories is the core driver. Overall, the fundamentals show a "near - strong, far - weak" characteristic. The price is supported by cost and tight spot supplies, but in the medium - to - long - term, it is suppressed by expectations of demand and supply increases [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They fluctuate with energy expectations and are driven by energy sentiment, with valuations at a high level. The price increase is due to power - coal expectations rather than their own fundamentals. Domestic production is rising, inventories are approaching the same - period level, pig - iron production and steel - mill profits are lower than in previous years, and Mongolian - coal port inventories are under pressure. The price increase faces delivery risks and cannot deviate from fundamentals for a long time [14]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: There is strong cost support at the bottom. Australian hurricanes disrupt manganese - ore shipments, and miners' price - holding and rising coking - coal prices provide support. Ferrosilicon production is increasing, while silicomanganese production remains low. Steel - mill demand support is limited, silicomanganese inventories are at a historical high, and the de - stocking pressure is high. Manganese - ore disruptions amplify price fluctuations [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices are oscillating upwards. The attack on a Russian oil tanker intensifies supply disruptions. There are large differences in US - Iran negotiations, and the US's military buildup in the Middle East may increase military pressure. Trump's delay in attacking Iranian energy facilities causes short - term price fluctuations, which are quickly repaired. The tight spot - supply situation remains unchanged [16]. - **Fuel Oil**: The market structure, spot premium, and refinery profits of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are continuously correcting, and the high - sulfur oil market shows a weakening trend. However, geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East persist, and the continuous de - stocking of Fujairah inventories support the short - term fuel - oil market. The future supply - demand pattern and price trend need to closely follow geopolitical changes and restocking situations [16]. - **Asphalt**: Recent geopolitical disturbances have caused local logistics disruptions and supply reductions in crude oil, leading to a rapid increase in crude - oil prices. The instability of the Middle - East situation amplifies the upward impulse of crude oil. In the short term, geopolitical disturbances are the core factor, overriding asphalt's own fundamentals [17]. - **Pulp - offset Paper**: Pulp port inventories have increased significantly, and spot prices have dropped slightly, suppressing futures - price valuations. The increase in downstream operating loads and overseas pulp - mill shutdowns provide support. The supply - demand of offset paper maintains a weak balance. After the festival, rigid demand is recovering, and paper - mill resumption of work increases supply expectations. Both are affected by geopolitical sentiment and will oscillate within a range in the short term [17]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The changing Middle - East situation intensifies price fluctuations. The large differences in US - Iran negotiations reduce the probability of a cease - fire, and the varieties follow crude oil to oscillate strongly. Middle - East refinery supplies are disrupted, domestic pure - benzene maintenance increases, and the impact of styrene - plant load reduction is small. Downstream restocking demand exists but resists high prices. Attention should be paid to the duration of the strait closure, and it will oscillate strongly in the short term [18]. - **LPG**: It oscillates at a high level during the geopolitical variable window period. Domestic supply is shrinking, with both commodity volume and arrival volume decreasing, showing a supply gap. Chemical demand is weak, and the decline in PDH operating rate suppresses consumption. Port inventories are continuously accumulating. The navigation of the Middle - East straits is the core variable, and the actual supply gap is difficult to fill. It will oscillate at a high level in the short term [19]. - **PP Propylene**: The geopolitical situation is still unclear, and it maintains an oscillatory pattern. Refinery load reduction brings substantial supply reduction, and PDH plants rely on inventory for production. The poor navigation of the Strait of Hormuz threatens propane supply. After the situation eases, supply support still exists, and the downside is limited. The market uncertainty is high, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [19]. - **Plastic**: It operates at a high - level oscillation. Geopolitical sentiment has slightly cooled down. Refinery load reduction and increased maintenance bring obvious supply reduction, supporting the market. If the conflict continues, the price will be strong; if the situation eases, the risk premium will be withdrawn, but the actual supply reduction limits the decline. It is affected by the resonance of supply - demand and geopolitics, and it is advisable to wait and see for the situation to become clear in the short term [20]. - **Rubber**: The geopolitical situation is repeated. Synthetic rubber increases positions and breaks through highs, while natural rubber maintains an oscillation. Tightening Asian energy drives ethylene - plant load reduction, increasing the butadiene shortage and strengthening cost support. The production of cis - butadiene rubber declines. Natural - rubber inventories are at a high level, and production areas are gradually starting to harvest. The overseas low - production season provides support. In the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand supports the valuation, and it will stabilize in an oscillation [20]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda - ash daily production is at a high level, and supply pressure persists. Rigid demand is currently stable but weak. The increase in photovoltaic cold - repairs, but there may be unexpected supply - side disturbances. Inventory performance is better than expected. If the market rises, there is some restocking space for middle - stream players such as futures - spot arbitrageurs, but due to limited demand elasticity, the price increase is expected to be limited. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation to open. In the medium - to - long - term, the high - supply expectation remains unchanged, waiting for the further accumulation of industrial contradictions [21][22]. - **Glass**: The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and daily melting is in a downward stage. However, high middle - stream inventories have always been a risk concern in the market because once a negative feedback occurs, the spot pressure will be large, and downstream may not be able to bear it. Secondly, there are continuous news of ignition and cold - repair, and there are many new lines in Shahe waiting to be ignited. The expectation of supply recovery and high middle - stream inventories limit the upside of glass, and demand needs to be verified [22]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the supply side, domestic chlor - alkali plant maintenance continues, and the industry operating rate maintains at 84.6%, with marginal supply tightening. However, enterprise inventories have increased slightly month - on - month, and short - term pressure still exists. On the demand side, the rigid demand of downstream alumina and viscose staple fiber is stable, and export inquiries are active, providing stable support overall. The market is affected by the supply - demand contradiction and market sentiment, showing a downward oscillatory trend within a range [23]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The market has sufficient pig supplies, slaughterhouses' procurement is smooth, and farmers' enthusiasm for selling is high. The short - term supply - demand pattern is loose, the weak trend is difficult to change, and supply pressure dominates the trend. Futures prices continue to be under pressure [24]. - **Oilseeds**: The China - US negotiation in April is postponed, and attention should be paid to the bio - diesel conference. In the domestic market, in the short term, the slow shipment from Brazil and rising freight rates support spot prices, but the medium - term large - supply logic remains unchanged. After the price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widens, rapeseed - related products regain cost - effectiveness, and the price spread is being repaired [24]. - **Oils**: The US - Iran situation is still uncertain, international oil prices are oscillating repeatedly, and the oil market is also in an oscillatory stage. It needs further promotion from bio - diesel policies; otherwise, it is difficult to break through. Attention should be paid to the review result of the US bio - fuel policy this week [25]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran causes large fluctuations in oil prices, increasing macro - risks. The release of domestic quotas increases short - term supply, and Zhengzhou cotton prices decline. However, current downstream inventories are low, finished - product sales are fast, and consumption performance is good. There is still support at the bottom of cotton prices. The domestic - foreign price spread has been repaired recently. Attention should be paid to the upcoming new - year planting - intention report from USDA next week [25]. - **Sugar**: The outer - market raw - sugar is stronger than the domestic market. The sugar - making season in Inner Mongolia ends, and the expected beet - planting area decreases. The Middle - East geopolitical situation is tense, and capital sentiment is cautious. Domestic spot prices are stable, and trading is average. In the short term, it is affected by geopolitics and the outer - market, maintaining an oscillatory pattern [26]. - **Eggs**: The price slightly rises in a stable - to - strong manner. Inventories at all levels are low, pre - Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking starts, and downstream restocking willingness increases. The laying - hen inventory is at a high level, and supply pressure still exists. As the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking nears the end, terminal demand is less than expected. Supported by low inventories and stocking expectations, it will oscillate in the short term [26]. - **Peanuts**: Oil - mill purchases increase. Sufficient commercial - peanut supplies and high oil - mill inventories suppress prices, while some oil - mill purchases provide support. There is a two - way game between supply and demand, and the market will maintain a high - level oscillation in the future. The oil - mill purchase rhythm is the core influencing factor [26]. - **Red Dates**: The new - year planting season has not arrived yet, and the market focus is still on the demand side. Currently, downstream sales are average, and restocking is light. The driving force for red - date prices is limited. With the overall domestic supply - demand being loose, there is still pressure on the upside, and it may mainly oscillate at a low level to build a bottom [27].

Group 1 - U.S. stock market closed lower on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by approximately 1%, the S&P 500 index falling by 1.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite index decreasing by 2.38% [1] - Oil prices regained upward momentum, contributing to the pressure on the stock indices [1] - The market faced renewed expectations of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, impacting investor sentiment [1] Group 2 - Tesla (TSLA.O) shares fell by over 3% [1] - Nvidia shares declined by 4% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped by 2.55%, with Xpeng Motors (XPEV.N) down by over 6% and Alibaba (BABA.N) falling by over 3% [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, selling out - of - the - money call options for glass [1][9][10][11] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Holding short positions moderately on copper at high prices, strengthening observation on aluminum, suggesting waiting and seeing on nickel, range trading for tin, expecting gold and silver to trade in a range, and interval oscillation for lithium carbonate [1][14][17][18][20][22][23][24] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be bullish in a range; selling short on soda ash at high prices; buying rubber on dips without chasing highs; range trading for urea and methanol [1][26][28][29][31][32][33][35][37] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish in a range; apples and jujubes are expected to trade in a range [1][39][40][42] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Taking a bearish stance on the 05 and 07 contracts of live pigs on rebounds, treating the 09 contract as range - bound; eggs are expected to trade in a range; corn is expected to have short - term interval oscillation; being cautious about chasing long on the 05 contract of soybean meal; reducing long positions gradually on oils and fats [1][44][46][47][49][50] Core Views - The global market is affected by multiple factors such as the Middle East situation, inflation, and interest rate policies. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment opportunities based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [5][6][15][17][22][23] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the medium to long term, they are bullish. Due to factors like the Iran - US game and inflation pressure, they may trade in a range in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: They are expected to trade in a range. The short - end shows limited downward movement, and the long - end spread has room for repair, but is affected by geopolitical and oil price factors [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading is recommended. Domestic coking coal production has increased, and the inventory structure is favorable. The market is trading the substitution effect of coal for oil and gas [9] - **Rebar**: Range trading is suggested. The price is currently below the electric furnace valley - electricity cost, and the inventory has peaked and declined. The price is expected to trade in a range in the short term [10] - **Glass**: Selling out - of - the - money call options is advised. The supply has decreased, the inventory reduction has slowed down, and the demand is general. The price is expected to be bearish in a range with a possibility of a small rebound [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Holding short positions moderately at high prices is recommended. The price is affected by macro factors, demand, and inventory. The short - term has downward risks, but there is also support from domestic inventory reduction and the consumption season [14][15] - **Aluminum**: Strengthening observation is recommended. The price is affected by factors such as raw material prices, production capacity changes, and the Middle East situation. It is suggested to wait for the market sentiment to stabilize before entering the market [17] - **Nickel**: Waiting and seeing is advised. The price is affected by factors such as nickel ore supply, refined nickel production and inventory, and downstream demand. It is expected to be bullish in a range [18][19] - **Tin**: Range trading is recommended. The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is stable. The price is expected to have wide - range oscillation [20] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to trade in a range. Affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate policy, the Middle East situation, and inflation, the medium - term price central axis has moved up [22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to have interval oscillation. The supply and demand are both increasing. Attention should be paid to the impact of supply - side disturbances and import volume changes [24][25] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to be bullish in a range. The cost is low, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export has support. Attention should be paid to policies and risk events [26] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to be bullish in a range. The demand has marginal support, the supply has maintenance expectations, and the price has a strong rebound under low valuation [28] - **Styrene**: It is expected to be bullish in a range. The cost is supported by rising oil prices, the inventory pressure is light, and it is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [29] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to be bullish in a range. The cost is supported by rising oil and gas prices, and the supply - demand situation has marginal improvement [31] - **Rubber**: Buying on dips without chasing highs is recommended. The cost is supported, but the inventory pressure is large. It is expected to be in a range - bound state [32] - **Urea**: Range trading is recommended. The supply is at a high level, the demand is supported by agriculture and compound fertilizers, and the inventory is decreasing [33][34] - **Methanol**: Range trading is recommended. The supply and demand are both in a certain state, and the inventory is decreasing [35] - **Soda Ash**: Selling short at high prices is recommended. The supply is high, the inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to be under pressure [37] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to be bullish in a range. The global cotton supply is increasing, the demand is slightly decreasing, and the domestic consumption is strong. The price is expected to be bullish due to the positive impact of chemical fiber prices [39] - **Apples**: They are expected to trade in a range. The market is in a state of polarization, and the price varies in different regions [40][41] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price in the production area is based on quality, and the trading is relatively light [42] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: Taking a bearish stance on the 05 and 07 contracts on rebounds and treating the 09 contract as range - bound is recommended. The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the long - term price is affected by capacity reduction [44][45] - **Eggs**: They are expected to trade in a range. The demand is supported by festivals, the supply pressure is gradually relieved, and the price is expected to be in a range - bound state [46] - **Corn**: It is expected to have short - term interval oscillation. The supply and demand are in a relatively balanced state, and the price is affected by factors such as supply sources and substitution [48] - **Soybean Meal**: Being cautious about chasing long on the 05 contract is recommended. The price is affected by factors such as US soybean exports, Brazilian shipping, and oil prices [49] - **Oils and Fats**: Reducing long positions gradually is recommended. The prices are expected to be in a high - level range. Although there is a short - term de - stocking expectation, the supply will be relatively loose in the second quarter [50][55]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened lower and experienced a significant drop of over 4% during the day, with panic selling emerging. The Shanghai Composite Index barely held above the 3800-point mark by the end of the trading session, erasing all gains made this year in one of the most severe single-day adjustments of the year [2][4]. Global Market Impact - The Hong Kong market also faced a sharp decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 3.54% to close at 24382.47 points, marking an 8-month low. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 3.28% to 4712.48 points. Globally, markets were under pressure, with major Asian indices closing mostly lower, including a 3.48% drop in Japan's Nikkei 225 and a 6.49% decline in South Korea's composite index [5][7]. Investor Sentiment - A fund manager indicated that the primary reasons for the market drop were the turmoil in Iran and rising expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, leading to a contraction in global risk appetite. The current market decline is seen more as a release of investor sentiment rather than a fundamental change in the performance of listed companies [7]. Sector Performance - The precious metals sector in A-shares experienced a significant drop, with companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Shengda Resources hitting trading limits. This decline followed a nearly 10% drop in international gold prices and over 14% drop in silver prices in the previous week [9][10]. Oil Price Influence - Recent market turmoil is linked to rising oil prices, which have surpassed $100 due to the US-Iran conflict, intensifying inflation concerns. This has led to decreased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and even increased expectations for rate hikes, contributing to the global stock market downturn [12][14]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term liquidity squeeze affecting gold, the long-term investment logic remains intact. Historical performance shows that gold has effectively hedged against geopolitical, macroeconomic, and policy risks [11]. The current investment environment is complex, with concerns about energy prices and their long-term impact on the global economy [15].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.24% to 3957.05 points, while the Shenzhen Component decreased by 0.25%[1] - The Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.88% to 25277.32 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index down 2.48%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong was 3425.175 million HKD[1] U.S. Market Trends - The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.96% to 45577.47 points, and the S&P 500 fell by 1.51% to 6506.48 points[1] - The Nasdaq Composite decreased by 2.01%[1] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran to fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face attacks on its power facilities[8] - The U.S. is considering plans to seize Iran's oil export hub, Khark Island, and has deployed over 2000 Marines to the Middle East[8] Oil Market Impact - Oil prices surged to near four-year highs, leading bond traders to abandon bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year[8] - There is now a 50% probability of a rate hike by October, as inflation concerns rise due to the geopolitical tensions[8] Economic Indicators - The two-year Treasury yield surpassed 3.75%, reaching its highest level since July of the previous year[12] - The market sentiment shifted dramatically, with traders now prioritizing inflation concerns over economic growth worries[12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices fluctuated and declined this week, mainly due to significant macro - geopolitical disturbances. The report maintains a bullish view on copper in the medium - term, suggesting it can be bought and held, and next week, attention should be paid to the support around 93,000 - 96,000 RMB [1] - Aluminum supply is damaged and it has a high energy dependence, so it is expected to perform strongly in the metal sector, despite the overall weakness of non - ferrous metals under the Fed's interest rate hike expectation [1] - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are average. In the short - term, under the background of trading recession expectations, its support is weak, but in the long - term, capital expenditure is limited and there are supply disturbances from Iran [3] - Nickel prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations under the condition of bearish fundamentals and bullish supply - side policy intervention [5] - Stainless steel is expected to follow nickel prices and maintain range - bound oscillations under the condition of bearish fundamentals and bullish supply - side policy intervention [7] - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation under the influence of overseas inventory drag and recycled profit support [9] - Tin prices are greatly affected by global macro - liquidity. If liquidity is loose, tin has strong upward elasticity; if liquidity tightens due to the US - Iran conflict, tin prices may have a large callback space [13] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate with costs in the short - term, and in the long - term, they are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on seasonal marginal costs [17] - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the de - stocking in March slows down marginally, and the disk is mainly driven by the macro. The upward breakthrough needs futures - spot resonance or unexpected supply disturbances, and the downward breakthrough requires demand collapse or unexpected resumption of production by CATL [19] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated and declined due to macro - geopolitical disturbances. Overseas, there are concerns about China's consumption ability. In the domestic scrap copper market, the resumption of production of recycled copper processing enterprises is slow, and the supply of scrap copper is tight, which may promote the further depletion of refined copper inventory [1] Aluminum - Affected by the Iran crisis, some aluminum plants in the Middle East have reduced production. The external market is stronger than the domestic market, and the long - short spread between the internal and external markets is at a high level. Under the Fed's interest rate hike expectation, aluminum prices have weakened, but it is expected to perform strongly in the metal sector due to supply damage and high energy dependence [1] Zinc - In the supply side, the medium - term supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight, and the domestic and imported TC are at a low level. The resumption of production of northern mines in spring is expected to drive a rebound. In the demand side, downstream enterprises have resumed production, but orders are weak, and the overall inventory has accumulated to over 250,000 tons [3] Nickel - In the supply side, the output of pure nickel in February decreased. In the demand side, it is mainly for rigid demand, and the premium of Jinchuan and Russian nickel is weak. In the inventory side, domestic inventory has been accumulating, and LME inventory has decreased slightly. Under the influence of supply - side policy intervention, nickel prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [5] Stainless Steel - In the supply side, the steel mill's production plan has decreased slightly. In the demand side, downstream enterprises are gradually recovering. In the cost side, the price of nickel iron and ferrochrome has increased. In the inventory side, the inventory has decreased slightly this week. It is expected to follow nickel prices and maintain range - bound oscillations [7] Lead - In the supply side, primary lead production has sufficient profits and is resuming production, while recycled lead production is delayed due to losses. In the demand side, the battery production rate has recovered, and the inventory of dealers' battery products has decreased. The spot social inventory has decreased by nearly 10,000 tons this week, and lead prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [9] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated and declined, under great pressure due to liquidity risks. In the supply side, the export volume of Wa State has recovered rapidly, and the domestic processing fee has a slight upward trend. There are also supply - side disturbance risks. In the demand side, rigid demand is strong, and the willingness to replenish inventory is high after the price decline. The price is greatly affected by global macro - liquidity [13] Industrial Silicon - Some factories in Inner Mongolia have increased production, and some factories in Gansu have reduced production for maintenance. The supply and demand are close to a balanced state, and the price is expected to oscillate with costs. In the long - term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [17] Lithium Carbonate - In March, the de - stocking marginally slows down, and the disk is mainly driven by the macro. The upward breakthrough needs futures - spot resonance or unexpected supply disturbances, and the downward breakthrough requires demand collapse or unexpected resumption of production by CATL [19]