Switzerland's GDP adjusted for large sports events will rise 0.9% in 2026, KOF said, lowering its previous 1.5% projection https://t.co/IIjaDfNSPS ...

Core Insights - The article highlights China's overwhelming advantages in key economic indicators compared to the United States, suggesting that China's economic scale may be several times larger than that of the U.S. when measured by actual output and welfare [1][5]. Group 1: Industrial Strength - China contributes nearly 30% of global manufacturing value added and has maintained the world's largest industrial scale for 15 consecutive years [3]. - In 2024, China's electricity generation reached 9.45 trillion kWh, steel production was 1.384 billion tons, and automobile production was 30.2 million units, all significantly surpassing U.S. figures [5][7]. - China dominates in the production of various industrial goods, holding the top position in most categories among 504 major industrial products globally [3]. Group 2: GDP Measurement Discrepancies - The article discusses the fundamental differences in GDP calculation methods between China and the U.S., with China focusing on tangible outputs while the U.S. includes virtual economies and gray industries [3][5]. - By purchasing power parity (PPP), China's GDP surpassed that of the U.S. in 2017 and reached 124.6% of the U.S. GDP by 2023 [5][7]. Group 3: Living Standards Comparison - The article presents a comparison of living standards, indicating that the quality of life in China for 2,000 RMB is higher than that in the U.S. for 3,000 USD [5][7]. - Key factors contributing to this disparity include lower prices for fresh produce, an efficient logistics system, and abundant free digital services in China [5][7]. Group 4: Future Competitiveness - The article emphasizes that China's real challenge lies in gaining a voice in the global value chain, as the U.S. controls high-profit segments like chip design and software licensing [7]. - However, China is establishing advantages in emerging fields such as renewable energy, 5G, and quantum technology, with the internationalization of the yuan accelerating [7]. Group 5: Economic Evaluation Standards - The article argues for a new economic evaluation standard that prioritizes tangible output, welfare, and technological innovation over mere GDP figures [7]. - It concludes that the true essence of economic strength lies in the ability to provide for the population's needs and maintain a robust industrial base, rather than just statistical comparisons [7].

Report Core View - The report provides a forward - looking analysis of key events and data releases in the coming week and their potential impact on the futures market, including economic data from China, the United States, and the Eurozone [2][3][4] Key Points by Date September 22 - China's central bank will announce the September 2025 LPR at 09:00, with the 1 - year LPR expected to be 3.00% and the 5 - year - plus LPR expected to be 3.50%, both unchanged from the previous values, having a neutral impact on futures [3] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the "14th Five - Year Plan" achievements in the financial industry at 15:00, with capital market development likely to be a core topic [4] - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the preliminary value of the Eurozone's September consumer confidence index at 22:00, expected to be - 15.4, up from - 15.5 [5] September 23 - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of the Eurozone's September SPGI manufacturing PMI at 16:00, expected to be 51, up from 50.7, which may help futures prices of non - ferrous metals and crude oil rise [8] - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of the US September SPGI manufacturing PMI at 21:45, expected to be 53.5, up from 53, which may also help futures prices of non - ferrous metals and crude oil rise [9] September 24 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the mid - September market prices of important production materials at 9:30, covering 9 categories and 50 products [10] - The US Department of Commerce will announce August new home sales at 22:00, with the seasonally - adjusted annualized total expected to be 653,000, up from 652,000, which may help non - ferrous metal futures prices rise and suppress gold and silver futures prices [11] - The EIA will announce the change in US crude oil inventories for the week ending September 19 at 22:30. A continued decline may help crude oil and related commodity futures prices rise [12] - The US Conference Board will announce the September consumer confidence index at 22:00, expected to be 102.9, down from 103.3, which may suppress non - ferrous metals and crude oil futures prices and help gold and silver futures prices rise [13] September 25 - The central bank will conduct an incremental roll - over of the maturing MLF, with 30 billion yuan of MLF maturing on this day [14] - The Gfk Institute will announce Germany's October consumer confidence index at 14:00, expected to be - 23.3, up from - 23.6 [15] - The US Department of Commerce will announce the final value of the Q2 2025 GDP at 20:30, with the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP expected to be 3.3% [16] - The US Department of Commerce will announce the preliminary monthly rate of August durable goods orders at 20:30, expected to be - 0.5%, up from - 2.8%, which may help non - ferrous metal futures prices rise and suppress gold and silver futures prices [17] - The US Department of Labor will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 at 20:30, expected to be 225,000, down from 231,000, which may help industrial product futures prices rise and suppress gold and silver futures prices [18] - The National Association of Realtors will announce the annualized total of August existing home sales at 22:00, expected to be 3.98 million, down from 4.01 million [19] September 26 - The US Department of Commerce will announce the August PCE price index at 20:30. If the annual and monthly rates of the PCE price index are slightly higher than the previous values and the core PCE price index shows specific changes, the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and December [20] - The US Department of Commerce will announce August personal consumption expenditures at 20:30, with the monthly rate expected to be 0.4%, down from 0.5%, which may suppress non - ferrous metals and crude oil futures prices and help gold and silver futures prices rise [21] September 27 - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size in August at 09:30, with the previous value (July) showing a 1.5% year - on - year decline and a 1.7% cumulative decline from January to July [22]

⚡ INSIGHT: $BTC's Market Cap is higher than most countries' GDP.The only countries with a higher GDP are United States, China, Germany, Japan, India, United Kingdom, France, and Italy. https://t.co/rLsBRyImPa ...

Market Trends - Retail sales and manufacturing show positive growth, suggesting economic strength [1] - GDP has been revised upwards, indicating a stronger economic outlook [1] - Jobless claims are lower, suggesting the labor market is not weakening as much as feared, and recession predictions may be inaccurate [1] - AI spending is a primary driver of market performance over the past year [1] Fiscal & Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy remains expansionary with continued government spending [1] - Monetary policy is becoming less restrictive, with potential rate cuts [1] - The Federal Reserve's uncertainty about future actions suggests a tendency to follow existing trends [1]

Group 1 - Treasury yields are increasing as investors adjust their growth and inflation expectations following a quarter-point interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has raised its GDP growth estimates for this year and next, with stronger growth anticipated in 2027, while also slightly lowering its unemployment forecast [2] - Fed officials indicated the possibility of two additional quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year and another reduction in 2026, highlighting concerns over softer job growth despite inflation risks [2]

Group 1: Economic Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, the GDP of the United States reached $15.1 trillion, maintaining its position as the largest economy globally, despite a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter [3][5] - Japan's GDP was approximately $2.11 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 1.5%, indicating a fragile recovery phase [9][11] - China's GDP totaled $9.57 trillion, showing steady growth across various sectors, including manufacturing and services, with a notable increase in exports of high-tech products [18][20] Group 2: United States Economic Challenges - The U.S. economy faces pressures from high interest rates, low consumer demand, and rising financing costs, leading to a cautious investment environment [3][5] - The trade war's impact has resulted in a significant decline in exports and increased import costs, contributing to inventory buildup and consumer pressure [5][7] - Despite a 1.3% GDP growth in the second quarter, challenges remain, including ongoing interest rate hikes and a wave of business closures in certain regions [5][7] Group 3: Japan's Economic Struggles - Japan's economic recovery is hindered by external demand decline and manufacturing sector adjustments, with a 0.2% contraction in the first quarter [9][11] - The automotive industry faces severe challenges due to global shifts towards electric vehicles, impacting the competitiveness of traditional fuel vehicles [11][14] - Japan's aging population and declining labor force participation are significant long-term economic challenges, with social spending pressures increasing [14][16] Group 4: China's Economic Resilience - China's economy is characterized by a robust recovery in consumer markets and strong growth in key sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and new energy [20][21] - The government has implemented effective macroeconomic policies, including targeted fiscal measures and flexible monetary policies, to support growth [21][22] - China's growth strategy relies on a dual approach of manufacturing transformation and technological breakthroughs, positioning it for independent growth amid global economic pressures [21][22] Group 5: Future Economic Dynamics - The competition among the U.S., Japan, and China is intensifying, with the U.S. facing growth slowdown and Japan struggling with structural issues [25][27] - China's rapid rise in emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and drones highlights its growing competitiveness in the global market [27][28] - The future economic landscape will be shaped by innovation capabilities, market vitality, and industrial competitiveness among these major economies [27][28]

Group 1 - New Zealand's GDP for the second quarter decreased by 0.6% year-on-year [1] - The previous value was revised from -0.70% to -0.6% [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions and Economic Outlook - The FOMC voted 11-1 to cut the federal funds target range by -25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% and indicated downside risks to employment have increased while inflation remains elevated [3] - The Fed's dot plot projects the fed funds target at 3.625% by the end of 2025, signaling another -50 basis points of rate cuts this year, with a target range of 3.375% for the end of 2026 [3] - The FOMC raised its 2025 US GDP estimate to +1.6% from +1.4% and maintained its core PCE inflation estimate at +3.1%, which is above the Fed's target of 2% [4] Group 2: Labor Market and Inflation Insights - Fed Chair Powell noted that revised job numbers indicate the labor market is no longer solid, and the Fed's interest rate cuts aim to achieve a more neutral position to support the labor market [5] - Powell also mentioned that higher goods prices are contributing to inflation and are expected to continue rising into next year [5] Group 3: Currency Market Reactions - The dollar index rose by +0.22% after recovering from a 3.5-year low, initially retreating after the FOMC's rate cut announcement but rebounding on hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell [1] - Concerns over Fed independence may undermine the dollar, as potential political actions could lead foreign investors to divest from dollar assets [6] Group 4: Housing Market Data - In August, US housing starts fell -8.5% month-over-month to 1.307 million, below expectations of 1.365 million [2] - Building permits also unexpectedly declined by -3.7% month-over-month to a 5.25-year low of 1.312 million, contrary to expectations of an increase to 1.370 million [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **U.S. Industrial Production** sector, highlighting its performance in August and its implications for GDP tracking. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Industrial Production Growth**: - Industrial production increased by **0.1%** in August, contrary to expectations for a decline. The previous month's growth rate was revised down from **-0.3%** to **-0.4%** [1][2] 2. **Manufacturing Production**: - Manufacturing production rose by **0.2%** in August, also against expectations for a decline. The July growth rate was revised down from **-0.1%** to **-0.1%** [1][2] 3. **Motor Vehicle Assemblies**: - Motor vehicle assemblies saw a significant increase of **6.0%**, reaching **11.0 million** units [2] 4. **Utilities Component Decline**: - The utilities component, which is a factor in GDP consumption accounts, declined by **2.0%** [2][3] 5. **Capacity Utilization**: - Capacity utilization remained unchanged at **77.4%**, consistent with a downwardly revised level from July [2] 6. **GDP Tracking Estimate**: - The Q3 GDP tracking estimate was boosted by **0.6 percentage points** to **+2.2%** (quarter-over-quarter annualized). The domestic final sales estimate was also increased by the same amount to **+1.3%** [1][6] 7. **Retail Sales Report**: - The details of the retail sales report were significantly stronger than previous GDP tracking assumptions, indicating a mixed outlook for industrial production [3] Additional Important Information - Investors are advised to consider the industrial production report as just one factor in their investment decisions, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive analysis [3] - The report includes contact information for analysts at **Goldman Sachs**, indicating the source of the data and analysis [4] This summary encapsulates the essential findings and implications of the conference call regarding U.S. industrial production and its impact on economic forecasts.