数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/12/4 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1091.50 | +21.00↑ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1651.50 | +27.00↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 833449.00 | -14909.00↓ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 45213.00 | -1315.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -79594.00 | +17706.00↑ 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -387.00 | -670.00↓ | | | JM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 92.50 | -1.50↓ J5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 131.00 | +4.00↑ | | | 焦 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The processing fee of copper concentrate in the raw material end still operates in the negative range, and the raw material supply remains tight, supporting the copper price cost. After the previous centralized maintenance, smelting capacity may be released again, but the tight supply of raw materials will limit the capacity, so the domestic refined copper supply will only increase slightly. The impact of the consumption off - season is gradually emerging, and the high copper price restrains downstream consumption, leading to cautious downstream purchasing sentiment. The social inventory remains at a medium - low level but may accumulate due to the off - season. The year - end rush of domestic power infrastructure and the year - end sales push of the new energy vehicle industry support the demand to some extent. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.29, up 0.0159 month - on - month, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility rises slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. The overall view is to trade with a light position in a fluctuating market, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 90,980 yuan/ton, up 1770 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 11,411 dollars/ton, down 76.50 dollars. The spread between adjacent months of the main contract is - 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 234,570 lots, up 10,586 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 32,233 lots, up 2,696 lots. The LME copper inventory is 162,150 tons, up 350 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 97,930 tons, down 12,673 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant of cathode copper is 32,139 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 91,245 yuan/ton, up 2,265 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 91,175 yuan/ton, up 2,090 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 48.50 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 39.00 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 265 yuan/ton, up 495 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 88.38 dollars/ton, up 19.20 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.75 dollars/kiloton, down 0.43 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 79,350 yuan/metal ton, up 330 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 80,050 yuan/metal ton, up 330 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, down 6.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 60,990 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 74,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 200.40 million tons, down 22.80 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,824 billion yuan, up 445.93 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 73,562.70 billion yuan, up 5,856.99 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177,000 thousand pieces, down 194,236.10 thousand pieces [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 12.50%, up 1.54%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 15.56%, down 2.65%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the current month is 17.96%, up 0.0051. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.29, up 0.0159 [2] 3.7 Industry News - From 2022 to 2024, the gap between external debt repayment funds and new financing of developing countries reached 741 billion dollars, the highest in more than 50 years. In 2024, the total external debt of developing countries reached a record 8.9 trillion dollars, and the total interest payment reached a record 415.4 billion dollars. The ADP employment in the US decreased by 32,000 in November, the lowest since March 2023, and the market expected an increase of 10,000. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is close to 90%. The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of new - type urbanization, including promoting the urbanization of agricultural transfer population, implementing urban renewal, and promoting the high - quality development of real estate. From January to November this year, the replacement of old consumer goods drove the sales of related goods to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting more than 360 million people. From January to October, China's service trade imports and exports totaled 6,584.43 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%, and the service trade deficit was 766.37 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 269.39 billion yuan. With the consumption of the fourth batch of 6.9 billion yuan national subsidy funds, more than 20 cities in China have suspended or adjusted the subsidy for car replacement. In November, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.263 million, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Among them, the retail sales of the new energy market were 1.354 million, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the penetration rate of the new energy market was 59.8% [2]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铝类产业日报 2025/12/4 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22,060.00 | +120.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,615.00 | -21.00↓ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -60.00 | +30.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -68.00 | +12.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 244,457.00 | -4791.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 329,329.00 | -15058.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 48 ...

把城市更新和消除安全隐患、稳楼市等工作结合起来。 加快推进以人为本的新型城镇化，是"十五五"时期扩大内需的重要抓手。 据新华社消息，12月3日国务院以"深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化，着力构建城乡融合发展新格局"为主题，进行 第十七次专题学习。国务院总理李强在主持学习时强调，坚持以人为本提高城镇化质量水平，充分释放城乡融合 发展蕴藏的巨大内需潜力，为经济社会发展提供强劲动力。 新型城镇化是个系统工程。李强谈到了四方面的重点任务：要因地制宜实施好新型城镇化规划，要科学有序推进 农业转移人口市民化，要深入实施城市更新行动，要着力破解城乡二元结构。 在国务院第十七次专题学习中，中国城市和小城镇改革发展中心主任高国力作讲解。 李强指出，我国城镇化正从快速增长期转向稳定发展期，城市发展正从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量提质增效为 主的阶段，人口结构、城镇体系、城乡格局等都在发生深刻变化，人工智能等新技术的应用也对城市发展、治理 带来新的机遇和挑战。要深刻认识新型城镇化的阶段性趋势性特征，进一步增强新型城镇化工作的针对性有效 性。 第一财经记者注意到，高国力曾撰文称，新型城镇化不仅能扩大有效益的投资，而且能激发有潜能的消费，是 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者刘诗萌 北京报道 "稳楼市"的提法，在一年一度的中央经济工作会议前夕，再度出现在高层会议的表述中。 新提"消除安全隐患" 11月底，香港大埔一座31层住宅宏福苑发生火灾，截至目前造成159人死亡，仍有31人失联。在这次事 件中，高层建筑暴露出发生火灾后扑救难、疏散慢、蔓延快的痛点，带来了深刻的警示。 12月3日，国务院以"深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化，着力构建城乡融合发展新格局"为主题，进行第 十七次专题学习。国务院总理李强在会上强调，要深入实施城市更新行动，把城市更新和消除安全隐 患、稳楼市等工作结合起来，扎实推进好房子建设和房地产高质量发展。 值得注意的是，去年的中央经济工作会议明确提出要"稳住楼市股市"，并在多处强调了大力实施城市更 新、城中村改造，赋予"稳楼市"在新一轮高质量发展中的重要使命，今年3月政府工作报告也再次提到 稳住楼市股市。而相比之下，"消除安全隐患"则是一个新的提法，在近期香港大埔宏福苑火灾事故发生 之后，各地也掀起了高层建筑火灾隐患的排查行动。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进向《华夏时报》记者表示，在城市发展新阶段，将城市更新与消除 安 ...

Group 1: Domestic Market Developments - The People's Bank of China continued to net withdraw funds on December 3, with the main repo rates fluctuating at low levels, leading to a slight increase in the yield of long-term bonds [1][7] - Vanke's bonds continued to decline, and Fitch placed Vanke and Vanke Hong Kong's "CCC-" issuer rating on negative watch, downgrading Vanke Hong Kong's note rating to "CC" [1][14] - The logistics industry in China showed a slight recovery in November, with the logistics industry prosperity index at 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [2] Group 2: International Market Insights - The U.S. ADP employment report for November showed an unexpected decline, with a loss of 32,000 jobs, marking the largest drop since March 2023, indicating increasing pressure on the labor market [4] - The ISM services index in the U.S. rose to 52.6 in November, the fastest expansion in nine months, supported by improved business activity and a decrease in price pressures [5] - In the international oil market, WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.53% to $58.95 per barrel, while natural gas prices increased by 3.83% to $5.010 per million British thermal units [6] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market experienced narrow fluctuations, with most interest rate bonds seeing an increase in yield, particularly the 30-year bonds which rose over 3 basis points [10] - In the secondary market, several bonds showed significant price deviations, with "H0中南02" dropping over 96% and various Vanke bonds declining by more than 13% [13] - The convertible bond market followed the downward trend of the equity market, with major indices declining and a total trading volume of 54.11 billion yuan [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rolled steel and wire rod: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile and weakening [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Volatile and bullish [4] - Silver: Volatile and bullish [4] - Logs: Consolidating at the bottom [5] - Pulp: Volatile [5] - Offset paper: Volatile [5] - Soybean oil: Range - bound [7] - Palm oil: Range - bound [7] - Rapeseed oil: Range - bound [7] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [7] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [7] - Soybean No.2: Volatile and bearish [7] - Soybean No.1: Volatile and bearish [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and bullish [10] - Rubber: Volatile [12] - PX: Wide - range volatile [12] - PTA: Volatile [12] - MEG: Weakly volatile [12] - PR: Hold and observe [12] - PF: Hold and observe [12] Core Views - The overall situation of the black industry shows an oversupply pattern, with weak domestic demand, and prices are mainly in a volatile state. The financial market has short - term adjustments but a positive medium - term trend. Precious metals are supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks. The forestry and paper industry has weak demand and supply pressures are gradually easing. The oil and oilseed market has uncertain demand prospects and supply is relatively abundant. The agricultural product market has supply - demand imbalances, and the soft commodity market has price fluctuations affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [2][4][5][7][10][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global shipments increased by 44.7 million tons to 33.232 billion tons, 47 - port foreign ore arrivals decreased by 155.5 million tons to 27.84 billion tons, daily average hot metal production dropped by 1.6 million tons to 2.3468 billion tons. The demand core lies in real estate, with new construction at 2005 levels. Port iron ore inventory rose slightly, reaching an 8 - month high. The supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse, and prices are in high - level volatility [2] - Coal and coke: On December 1st, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there are still expectations of further cuts. After continuous declines, valuations are reasonable, and there was a bottom - rebound on Monday. There are concerns about supply resumption, but steel and coke enterprises still have restocking needs, providing short - term support at low levels [2] - Rolled steel and wire rod: Downstream demand is sluggish, and winter restocking has not started. The core lies in steel demand, with real - estate new construction at 2005 levels. Steel prices depend on strict implementation of a production cut of over 5% in Q4 2025 and the implementation strength of anti - "involution" policies, and are currently in bottom - level volatility [2] - Glass: There are supply - side disturbances, with rumors of postponed cold - repairs. Float glass inventory decreased, but real - estate completion decline drags down demand. Whether prices can stop falling depends on cold - repair progress [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices. Energy equipment and motorcycle sectors had capital inflows, while forestry and Internet sectors had outflows. China's November S&P composite PMI was 51.2, and the service PMI was 52.1. The market is in short - term adjustment but has a positive medium - term trend [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds rose by 1bp, and the central bank conducted 79.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 134 billion yuan. Bond prices had a small - scale rebound [4] - Precious metals: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting to central - bank gold purchases. It has strong currency, financial, and risk - aversion attributes. The current logic for the price increase remains unchanged, and factors such as the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term disturbances. Silver also has a volatile and bullish trend [4][6] Forestry and Paper - Logs: Last week, the average daily port shipment volume decreased by 0.31 million cubic meters to 6.13 million cubic meters. In October, the volume of New Zealand logs shipped to China increased by 2%, while China's coniferous log imports decreased by 4.67% month - on - month and 7.14% year - on - year. The expected arrival volume last week decreased by 48%. Port inventory decreased by 6 million cubic meters. Spot prices are weak, and the price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - Pulp: The previous trading day's spot prices continued to be strong, with some prices of softwood and hardwood pulp rising. The latest foreign prices of softwood pulp remained stable, and hardwood pulp increased by $10 to $550 per ton. The cost support for pulp prices has strengthened, but the paper industry's profitability is low, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to return to volatility [5] - Offset paper: The previous trading day's spot prices were stable. Production is expected to be stable, and orders are expected to increase. Large - scale paper enterprises are firm in maintaining prices, and prices are expected to be volatile [5] Oil and Oilseed - Oils: U.S. soybean crushing reached a record high, but the U.S. biodiesel policy is uncertain. In October, Malaysian palm oil production and inventory were higher than expected, and exports in November decreased by 19.7% month - on - month. However, palm oil is supported by flood - induced production - reduction expectations and EU policy delays. Domestic soybean arrivals are large, and oil inventories are sufficient. Overall, oil prices are expected to continue range - bound trading [7] - Meals: U.S. soybean production, exports, and ending stocks have all been reduced, but the global supply is still relatively abundant. Sino - U.S. trade agreements may promote U.S. exports, but U.S. soybean prices are higher than Brazil's. Brazilian and Argentine soybean growing conditions are mixed. Domestic oil - mill operating rates are high, and soybean meal supply is sufficient. Demand is supported by high livestock inventories, but feed enterprises are cautious in purchasing. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [7] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight is showing a downward trend. Supply has increased due to farmers' accelerated sales, while demand is limited, causing settlement prices to decline. Slaughter - enterprise operating rates increased slightly but are expected to weaken next week. Pig - raising profitability has decreased, and the average weekly price is expected to continue to fall [10] Soft Commodities - Rubber: In Yunnan, raw - material prices are stable; in Hainan, output has decreased due to temperature. Thai raw - material prices rose, and Vietnamese supply is gradually recovering. Total inventory is low. Tire - enterprise capacity utilization decreased but will gradually recover. Automobile production and sales increased in October. Natural rubber inventory is in a significant accumulation phase, and prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility [12] - PX: In the long - term, crude - oil supply exceeds demand, and recent geopolitical factors have caused oil prices to rebound slightly. PX supply is high, but downstream polyester demand has increased, and PX prices are in wide - range volatility [12] - PTA: Oil - price fluctuations affect the PX end, and PTA's cost is unstable. Short - term supply - demand has improved, but seasonal weakening is inevitable. Processing margins are low, and prices are expected to follow cost fluctuations [12] - MEG: There is still long - term inventory - accumulation pressure, but the near - term situation has improved due to supply reduction. As port inventory rises, spot basis weakens, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [12] - PR: Local supply is tight, and cost support remains. The polyester bottle - chip market may stop falling and stabilize [12] - PF: Oil - price increases and low factory inventories are favorable, but terminal orders are insufficient. The short - fiber market is expected to have limited fluctuations [12][13]

·李强主持国务院第十七次专题学习指出新型城镇化是扩大内需和促进产业升级、做强国内大循环的重 要载体 ·两部门印发行动方案促进文旅与民航业融合发展 ·两大GPU龙头IPO新进展：摩尔线程将于12月5日上市沐曦股份发行价格确定 ·12月3日，国务院以"深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化，着力构建城乡融合发展新格局"为主题，进行第 十七次专题学习。国务院总理李强指出，新型城镇化是扩大内需和促进产业升级、做强国内大循环的重 要载体。要因地制宜实施好新型城镇化规划，坚持以规划为引领，进一步优化"人、产、城"布局，并根 据不同城市的情况实施分类指导。要科学有序推进农业转移人口市民化，采取更有力度、更具针对性的 举措，解决好农业转移人口的就业、社保、安居、子女教育等问题。要深入实施城市更新行动，把城市 更新和消除安全隐患、稳楼市等工作结合起来，扎实推进好房子建设和房地产高质量发展。要着力破解 城乡二元结构，推动城乡要素双向流动，加强城乡基础设施联通、产业对接，推进基本公共服务均等 化，促进城乡融合发展。（新华社） 用于投资"新型高性能通用GPU研发及产业化项目""新一代人工智能推理GPU研发及产业化项目"和"面 向前沿领域及新兴 ...

Core Insights - The conference highlighted the need for effective investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the balance between maintaining reasonable investment growth and improving investment efficiency [1][2] - Key relationships to manage include government vs. market, quality vs. quantity, investment vs. consumption, stock vs. increment, traditional vs. new, and "investment in objects" vs. "investment in people" [1] Group 1 - The current stock of infrastructure in China is approximately 400 trillion yuan, with significant investment needs for updating and transforming existing assets to meet high-quality development standards [1] - Many existing assets in industrial and urban construction sectors do not meet the requirements for high-quality development and safety, indicating a substantial demand for investment in these areas [1] - The relationship between "investment in objects" and "investment in people" is closely tied to development stages, with many industries reaching a peak in demand for material consumption due to factors like population aging [1] Group 2 - Investment structure optimization is crucial for improving investment efficiency, with a focus on four major transformations: promoting consumption demand, enhancing the quality of existing asset supply, cultivating new growth drivers, and high-quality co-construction of the "Belt and Road" initiative [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to achieve two main goals: optimizing investment structure and maintaining reasonable investment growth [2] - Key areas for investment during this period include new production capabilities, new infrastructure, new urbanization, and major engineering projects, particularly in electricity, water conservancy, and ecological environment sectors, which show significant potential for future investment growth [2]

晨报 成材 成材：关注周度基本面变化 钢价窄幅震荡 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 4 日 逻辑：国务院总理李强在主持专题学习时指出，新型城镇化是扩大内 需和促进产业升级、做强国内大循环的重要载体。要因地制宜 ...