美国关税可能导致涨价。 保时捷首席财务官：预计2025年在华销量将降至4万辆。 ...

保时捷首席财务官表示，美国关税可能导致涨价。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.44 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 31.8 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 22%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.1 billion RMB, with a year-over-year increase of 31% [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 8.4 billion RMB, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 15%, and a net profit of 1 billion RMB, slightly below expectations due to high raw material costs [1]. - The company plans to implement a mid-term dividend in 2025 and has announced a share buyback plan of 500-1,000 million RMB by its controlling shareholders [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved tire sales of 72.16 million units, a 29% increase year-over-year. The average price per tire decreased by 4% to 423 RMB, while the gross margin remained stable at 27.58% [2]. - For Q1 2025, tire sales reached 19.37 million units, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 17% and a year-over-year increase of 6%. The overall gross margin was 24.7%, impacted by product mix adjustments and high raw material costs [3]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from new production capacity and recovering overseas market demand, which will help achieve record sales in 2024 [2]. - Despite short-term uncertainties due to U.S. tariffs, the company is positioned for long-term growth due to its competitive pricing and diversified production bases [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 14% and 16% to 4.5 billion RMB and 5 billion RMB, respectively. The projected net profit for 2027 is 6.3 billion RMB, with year-over-year growth rates of 11%, 10%, and 27% for 2025-2027 [5]. - The company is valued at a 12x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting its overseas expansion advantages and brand strength [5].

日本首相石破茂表示，已决定了应对美国关税的一揽子措施；指示内阁官员尽全力帮助受影响的中小企 业。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The IMF indicates that many Asian central banks have room to lower interest rates to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs on their economies [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The IMF has revised down its GDP forecasts for export-driven Asian economies due to increased uncertainty in trade policies since January [1] - The short-term economic outlook for the region has worsened significantly due to these uncertainties [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Flexibility - Low inflationary pressures provide Asian economies with some leeway to adjust interest rates [1] - Many countries in the region can consider easing monetary policy to buffer against external shocks, as inflation is mostly at or below target levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates that many Asian central banks have the capacity to ease monetary policies to mitigate the economic impact of U.S. tariffs [1] Group 1 - The IMF suggests that the economic repercussions of U.S. tariffs could be significant for Asian economies [1] - Easing monetary policy could provide necessary support to counteract these impacts [1] - The flexibility in monetary policy among Asian central banks varies, with some having more room to maneuver than others [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the group reported revenues of €459 million, a decrease of 1% year-on-year compared to €463 million in Q1 2024, with organic performance also down 1% [7][8][9] - The Americas region showed a 9% organic growth, contributing 27% of total revenues, while EMEA was down 2% and Greater China reported a 12% decline [12][13][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Zegna brand revenues were €293 million, up 3% supported by direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels, particularly in EMEA and the US [9][10] - Tom Brown reported revenues of €64 million, down 9% organically due to a reduction in wholesale [10][11] - Tom Ford Fashion recorded revenues of €67 million, with a 3% organic growth driven by DTC channels [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - EMEA accounted for 34% of total revenues but was down 2%, primarily due to declines in Tom Brown's wholesale channel [12] - Greater China generated €123 million, accounting for 27% of group revenues, with a 12% decline, although initial signs of improvement were noted for the Zegna brand [13][14] - Rest of APAC reported 8% growth, driven by strong performance in Japan and Singapore [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on a more selective distribution approach, particularly for iconic products, to enhance brand exclusivity [106] - There is a strategic shift towards DTC channels, with a noted 5% growth in DTC revenues across all brands [15][16] - The company plans to implement a mid-single-digit price increase in response to a 10% tariff increase on imported products to the US [28][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed a cautious outlook for Greater China, expecting continued negative performance but less severe than in Q1 [104] - The overall demand globally has not seen significant changes, with some improvements noted, particularly for the Zegna brand [28] - The company confirmed its guidance for low single-digit EBIT growth for 2025, emphasizing cost control measures [89][92] Other Important Information - The company is launching new collections and marketing campaigns to boost brand visibility and sales, including a summer drop collection for Zegna [24][25] - The company opened new stores, including a significant location in Riyadh and plans for further openings in Los Angeles [17][25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends in the Americas and product performance - Management noted strong performance across the US, with no specific areas of weakness identified, and highlighted double-digit growth in various regions [35][37] Question: Impact of the fashion show and pricing strategy - The fashion show has generated positive momentum, with new collections expected to launch in June, and management is confident in passing through price increases without significant volume loss [28][44][92] Question: Expectations for Greater China and wholesale outlook - Management anticipates a continued negative trend in Greater China, with wholesale channels expected to be a drag on growth, particularly for Tom Brown and Zegna [104][105] Question: Retail KPIs and pricing architecture for Tom Ford - Positive retail KPIs were noted, particularly in average selling price and conversion rates, with expectations for a balanced mix of higher ticket items in the new collections [126][127][128]

印度政府经济事务秘书表示，他预计美国关税对印度国内生产总值增长的直接影响将在0.2到0.5个百分 点左右。 ...

路透调查：经济学家表示，美国关税对英国企业信心产生了负面影响。 ...

泰国财长：政府可能需要至少5000亿泰铢的经济刺激措施，以应对美国关税带来的冲击。 ...