（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京11月25日电周二公布的一项调查显示，在周三即将公布可能包含增税措施的预算案之际， 英国零售商的信心出现了17年来的最大跌幅，且销售额再度下滑。英国工业联合会表示，其11月零售销 售差值从10月的-27降至-32，而对未来一个月销售预期的衡量指标则从-39升至-24。衡量未来三个月企 业信心的季度指标从8月的-10降至-35，为2008年底全球金融危机达到顶峰以来的最低水平。 CBI副首席经济学家Alpesh Paleja表示："由于家庭对日常支出仍持谨慎态度，零售商继续努力应对长期 疲软的需求。所有人都在关注即将到来的预算，经济增长的不确定性意味着企业正在推迟投资和招聘计 划。" ...

Core Insights - US business activity accelerated in November, reaching the strongest growth in four months, driven by a surge in the services sector and improved business confidence regarding future economic prospects [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The S&P Global's preliminary composite output index rose by 0.2 points to 54.8, indicating economic expansion as it remains above 50 [1] - The services index reached a four-month high, while the manufacturing sector's expansion slowed down [1] - The composite index for expected output over the next year increased by 7.3 points, marking the largest monthly gain in five years [1] Group 2: Inflation and Costs - Inflation pressures rebounded in November for the first time since July, with businesses reporting higher import tariffs leading to increased costs [1] - The materials prices paid index rose to 63.1, the second-highest level in three years, while the input cost index for services reached its highest level since early 2023 [1] - Service sector pricing also increased, indicating rising costs amid persistent inflation [1] Group 3: Employment and Manufacturing Challenges - Despite high costs, hiring remained moderate, with the composite employment index showing a slight decline [1] - The composite new orders index rose to its highest level of the year, driven entirely by a rebound in service sector demand [2] - Manufacturing faced challenges with slowing new order growth and a significant increase in finished goods inventory, reaching the highest level recorded since 2007 [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Gold prices are oscillating around $4,100 per ounce after three consecutive days of gains, with an annual increase of over 55% in 2025, the best annual performance since 1979. The restart of the US government brings risk - preference repair, while weak employment data, declining business confidence, and interest - rate cut expectations support the medium - term bullish logic. Although the short - term rebound of the US dollar restrains the increase, the gold price center is still supported [1][3]. - Silver has broken through the previous high to $51.7 per ounce, reaching a new stage high. When gold is consolidating, funds are flowing to more volatile precious metals. The tight situation in the London market has been structurally alleviated, but the spot price still gets support from capital momentum and may further rise if gold prices remain strong and the US dollar continues to decline [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections **Key Information** - US House members ended a 53 - day recess and returned to Washington to vote to end the longest government shutdown in US history [2]. - The Russian Ministry of Finance will issue two types of domestic government bonds denominated in RMB on December 8, with maturities ranging from three to seven years [2]. - As of late October, US companies cut more than 11,000 jobs per week, and the consumer confidence continued to decline [2][3]. - China's Ministry of Commerce stated that the US suspension of the export control penetration rule is an important measure to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, and the two sides will continue to discuss the arrangement after the one - year suspension [2]. **Price Logic** - **Gold**: Gold is consolidating in the short - term high range ($4,100 - $4,150). The restart of the US government will bring a window of intensive data in the next three weeks. Preliminary alternative indicators show weak economic momentum. The decline in business confidence and employment slowdown mean that the downward pressure on real interest rates in the fourth quarter persists, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts has room for further strengthening, so the gold price center is still supported [3]. - **Silver**: Silver has broken through the previous high. The tight situation in the London market has been alleviated, and the supply has been replenished. However, the spot price is still supported by capital momentum. If the gold price remains strong and the US dollar continues to decline, the silver price is expected to rise further [3]. **Outlook** - In the short term, attention should be paid to the first batch of macro - data after the government restart and the speeches of Federal Reserve officials. If employment and business confidence remain weak, the pricing of an interest - rate cut in December may be further consolidated. The gold price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the London gold price in the range of $4,070 - $4,200 per ounce, and the London silver price in the range of $49 - $53 per ounce [4][7]. **Commodity Index** - **Composite Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index all showed positive growth on November 12, 2025, with increases of 0.40%, 0.48%, 0.58%, and 0.44% respectively [44]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On November 12, 2025, the precious metals index rose 0.27% for the day, 3.84% in the past 5 days, - 0.77% in the past month, and 52.03% since the beginning of the year [45].

Core Viewpoint - The increasing downside risks in the labor market were a key reason for the Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut is seen as a shift towards a "neutral" policy stance [1] - Future policy directions are not predetermined, indicating a flexible approach to economic conditions [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Current inflation levels remain slightly above the target, with the August core PCE inflation rate expected to be 2.3% [1] - The rise in goods prices is primarily attributed to tariff impacts rather than widespread inflationary pressures [1] Group 3: Consumer and Business Sentiment - Signs of slowing consumer spending have been observed, alongside weakened business confidence due to uncertainty [1] - The vitality of the labor market is showing signs of decline, which may further impact economic growth [1] Group 4: Future Inflation Outlook - Tariffs are expected to potentially lead to a rise in inflation over the next few quarters, although this inflation may be "relatively transient" [1] - The Federal Reserve aims to prevent one-time price increases from evolving into a persistent inflation issue [1]

Core Viewpoint - Delta Air Lines (DAL.N) CEO anticipates improvement in consumer and business confidence in the second quarter due to ongoing trade negotiations [1] Group 1 - The CEO's statement reflects optimism regarding the economic outlook as trade talks progress [1]

Core Insights - The latest Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan indicates that despite the impact of U.S. tariffs, Japanese corporate confidence remains resilient, with investment plans aligning with seasonal trends [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, emphasized that corporate capital investment plans will be a focal point, and the timing of the next interest rate hike will depend on the assessment of tariff policies' impact on the real economy [1] - Mizuho believes that while current data may not significantly influence the Bank's stance, it could provide some confidence to Ueda and his team [1] Corporate Confidence - The confidence index for large manufacturing firms improved unexpectedly compared to the March survey, while the confidence indices for large non-manufacturing firms and small enterprises saw a slight decline [1] - Overall, corporate confidence remains relatively stable despite the influence of U.S. tariff policies [1] Investment Plans - Large enterprises have raised their capital expenditure forecast for FY2025 to a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, while small enterprises adjusted their forecast to a decrease of 5.6%, indicating limited impact from tariffs [2] - The adjustments align with historical trends, suggesting that the tariff effects are manageable [2] Sales and Profit Expectations - Sales for all enterprises in FY2025 are expected to grow by 1.4%, slightly above the 0.8% growth forecast from the March survey [2] - However, profit forecasts have worsened from a decline of 1.4% to a decline of 5.7%, still consistent with historical trends [2] Employment Situation - Labor shortages remain severe, with the employment situation index at -35, only a slight improvement of 2 points from March [2] - The tight labor market is likely to continue exerting structural upward pressure on wages [2] Price Expectations - Current corporate expectations indicate a 2.4% increase in overall prices over the next year, three years, and five years, showing little change from the March survey [2] - Specifically, firms expect output prices to rise by 2.9% in the next year, 4.3% in three years, and 5.1% in five years, also reflecting stability compared to previous surveys [2] - This suggests that U.S. tariffs have not led Japanese firms to adopt a more conservative pricing stance, potentially alleviating the Bank of Japan's concerns about downward price risks [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that New Zealand businesses are showing increased confidence in June, as global tariff tensions ease [1] - 46.3% of surveyed businesses expect overall economic improvement in the next year, up from 36.6% in May [1] - 40.9% of respondents anticipate growth for their own companies in the coming year, a significant increase from 34.8% in May [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that while there is a slight recovery in business confidence in South Korea, the overall economic sentiment remains pessimistic, with the Business Survey Index (BSI) consistently below 100 for 39 months [1][3][7] - In June, the BSI for South Korea's top 600 companies rose to 94.7, an increase of 9.7 from May, but still reflects a dominant pessimistic sentiment as it remains below the neutral mark of 100 [3] - The manufacturing sector showed a significant rebound in the BSI, reaching 96, driven mainly by the electronics and telecommunications industries, while the non-manufacturing sector's BSI was only 93.5, indicating ongoing weakness [5][7] Group 2 - The report highlights the vulnerability of the South Korean economy amid global uncertainties, with persistent low domestic demand and trade risks being key factors affecting business confidence [7] - To achieve a comprehensive economic recovery, South Korea needs to address trade risks in the short term and implement effective measures to boost domestic demand, providing a more stable foundation for business confidence [7] - Analysts suggest that sustained economic recovery will depend on more proactive fiscal and monetary policies, including increased public investment and interest rate reductions [5]

Core Insights - Economists indicate that U.S. tariffs have negatively impacted the confidence of British businesses [1] Group 1 - The imposition of U.S. tariffs has led to a decline in business sentiment among companies in the UK [1] - The negative effects of these tariffs are contributing to broader economic concerns within the UK [1]