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美联储主席鲍威尔:关税推高商品价格 为保就业而降息
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 23:21
Core Viewpoint - The increasing downside risks in the labor market were a key reason for the Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut is seen as a shift towards a "neutral" policy stance [1] - Future policy directions are not predetermined, indicating a flexible approach to economic conditions [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Current inflation levels remain slightly above the target, with the August core PCE inflation rate expected to be 2.3% [1] - The rise in goods prices is primarily attributed to tariff impacts rather than widespread inflationary pressures [1] Group 3: Consumer and Business Sentiment - Signs of slowing consumer spending have been observed, alongside weakened business confidence due to uncertainty [1] - The vitality of the labor market is showing signs of decline, which may further impact economic growth [1] Group 4: Future Inflation Outlook - Tariffs are expected to potentially lead to a rise in inflation over the next few quarters, although this inflation may be "relatively transient" [1] - The Federal Reserve aims to prevent one-time price increases from evolving into a persistent inflation issue [1]
达美航空(DAL.N)CEO:随着贸易谈判的持续进展,我们预计消费者和企业的信心将在第二季度有所改善。
news flash· 2025-07-10 14:10
Core Viewpoint - Delta Air Lines (DAL.N) CEO anticipates improvement in consumer and business confidence in the second quarter due to ongoing trade negotiations [1] Group 1 - The CEO's statement reflects optimism regarding the economic outlook as trade talks progress [1]
瑞穗点评日本央行短观调查:特朗普关税阴云下,企业信心保持韧性
智通财经网· 2025-07-02 07:09
Core Insights - The latest Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan indicates that despite the impact of U.S. tariffs, Japanese corporate confidence remains resilient, with investment plans aligning with seasonal trends [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, emphasized that corporate capital investment plans will be a focal point, and the timing of the next interest rate hike will depend on the assessment of tariff policies' impact on the real economy [1] - Mizuho believes that while current data may not significantly influence the Bank's stance, it could provide some confidence to Ueda and his team [1] Corporate Confidence - The confidence index for large manufacturing firms improved unexpectedly compared to the March survey, while the confidence indices for large non-manufacturing firms and small enterprises saw a slight decline [1] - Overall, corporate confidence remains relatively stable despite the influence of U.S. tariff policies [1] Investment Plans - Large enterprises have raised their capital expenditure forecast for FY2025 to a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, while small enterprises adjusted their forecast to a decrease of 5.6%, indicating limited impact from tariffs [2] - The adjustments align with historical trends, suggesting that the tariff effects are manageable [2] Sales and Profit Expectations - Sales for all enterprises in FY2025 are expected to grow by 1.4%, slightly above the 0.8% growth forecast from the March survey [2] - However, profit forecasts have worsened from a decline of 1.4% to a decline of 5.7%, still consistent with historical trends [2] Employment Situation - Labor shortages remain severe, with the employment situation index at -35, only a slight improvement of 2 points from March [2] - The tight labor market is likely to continue exerting structural upward pressure on wages [2] Price Expectations - Current corporate expectations indicate a 2.4% increase in overall prices over the next year, three years, and five years, showing little change from the March survey [2] - Specifically, firms expect output prices to rise by 2.9% in the next year, 4.3% in three years, and 5.1% in five years, also reflecting stability compared to previous surveys [2] - This suggests that U.S. tariffs have not led Japanese firms to adopt a more conservative pricing stance, potentially alleviating the Bank of Japan's concerns about downward price risks [2]
澳新银行调查:新西兰企业在6月展现出更强信心
news flash· 2025-06-30 07:19
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that New Zealand businesses are showing increased confidence in June, as global tariff tensions ease [1] - 46.3% of surveyed businesses expect overall economic improvement in the next year, up from 36.6% in May [1] - 40.9% of respondents anticipate growth for their own companies in the coming year, a significant increase from 34.8% in May [1]
凯德北京投资基金管理有限公司:韩国企业信心微升,但悲观情绪仍占主导地位!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-27 12:39
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that while there is a slight recovery in business confidence in South Korea, the overall economic sentiment remains pessimistic, with the Business Survey Index (BSI) consistently below 100 for 39 months [1][3][7] - In June, the BSI for South Korea's top 600 companies rose to 94.7, an increase of 9.7 from May, but still reflects a dominant pessimistic sentiment as it remains below the neutral mark of 100 [3] - The manufacturing sector showed a significant rebound in the BSI, reaching 96, driven mainly by the electronics and telecommunications industries, while the non-manufacturing sector's BSI was only 93.5, indicating ongoing weakness [5][7] Group 2 - The report highlights the vulnerability of the South Korean economy amid global uncertainties, with persistent low domestic demand and trade risks being key factors affecting business confidence [7] - To achieve a comprehensive economic recovery, South Korea needs to address trade risks in the short term and implement effective measures to boost domestic demand, providing a more stable foundation for business confidence [7] - Analysts suggest that sustained economic recovery will depend on more proactive fiscal and monetary policies, including increased public investment and interest rate reductions [5]
路透调查:经济学家表示,美国关税对英国企业信心产生了负面影响。
news flash· 2025-04-23 13:11
路透调查:经济学家表示,美国关税对英国企业信心产生了负面影响。 ...