美国里士满联储主席Barkin（2027年FOMC票委）：鉴于失业和通胀目标的风险，未来的利率决策需 要"精细调整"。 当前的政策利率处于中性区间。 美联储的双重使命两方面都"值得关注"。 去年显示出经济的韧性，但需求和就业增长主要集中在某些行业，市场情绪有所下降。 预计去年的不确定性将在2026年减少，消费者和企业的信心将增强。 税收变化、放松监管以及降息的影响，今年都将为经济带来刺激。 通胀已回落但仍高于目标，失业率仍然较低，但不希望就业市场进一步恶化。 ...

"虽然预计韩国经济在2026年的增长将比今年有所改善，但企业情绪尚未恢复，"全经联经济和产业部门 负责人Lee Sang-ho在报告中表示。 他补充说，政府应该支持石油化学、钢铁等核心产业的结构调整，同时努力减轻能源和原材料相关企业 的财务负担。 周一公布的一项调查显示，由于建筑和钢铁行业持续低迷，韩国1月份的企业信心仍然悲观。 韩国全国经济人联合会（全经联）进行的月度调查显示，1月份韩国销售额600强企业的景气调查指数 （BSI）为95.4。 该指数低于100意味着悲观人士多于乐观人士，高于该指数则表明相反。自2022年4月以来，该指数连续 46个月低于100。 1月份制造业BSI展望值为91.8，比本月预测值91.9略有下降。 在制造业中，钢铁行业BSI为85.2，炼油和石化行业BSI为86.2。 非制造业的BSI展望值为98.9，建设和运输行业分别为85.7和95.7。 全经联指出，由于建设和钢铁行业的不景气，导致金属加工等相关行业景气不振，制造业景气也随之萎 缩。 1月份制造业BSI展望值为91.8，比本月预测值91.9略有下降。 在制造业中，钢铁行业BSI为85.2，炼油和石化行业BSI为86.2。 ...

Core Insights - The overall business confidence in the Eurozone remains stable, indicating moderate economic growth across the 20 countries, resilient against trade tariffs and political uncertainties [1] Economic Indicators - The Economic Sentiment Indicator rose from 96.8 in October to 97.0 in November, aligning with economists' expectations but still below the long-term average of 100 [1] - This indicator has been on an upward trend since the summer and is currently at its highest level since April 2023 [1] Sector Performance - The European Commission reported an improvement in service sector confidence compared to the previous month, while industrial sector confidence experienced a slight decline [1] - Consumer confidence remained stable during the month, further supporting the notion of slow but steady economic growth in the Eurozone as the year comes to a close [1]

Core Insights - The confidence of UK retailers has experienced the largest decline in 17 years, coinciding with an upcoming budget proposal that may include tax increases [1] - Retail sales have continued to decline, with the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reporting a drop in the retail sales balance from -27 in October to -32 in November [1] - Future sales expectations for the next month improved slightly from -39 to -24, but the quarterly indicator for business confidence over the next three months fell to -35, the lowest level since the peak of the global financial crisis in late 2008 [1] Retail Sector Analysis - Retailers are facing long-term weak demand as households remain cautious about daily spending, leading to challenges in sales performance [1] - The uncertainty surrounding economic growth is causing businesses to delay investment and hiring plans, reflecting a broader trend of caution in the retail sector [1] Economic Outlook - The upcoming budget is a focal point for retailers, as it may influence consumer spending and overall economic conditions [1] - The decline in business confidence suggests a challenging environment for the retail sector, with potential implications for future growth and stability [1]

Core Insights - US business activity accelerated in November, reaching the strongest growth in four months, driven by a surge in the services sector and improved business confidence regarding future economic prospects [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The S&P Global's preliminary composite output index rose by 0.2 points to 54.8, indicating economic expansion as it remains above 50 [1] - The services index reached a four-month high, while the manufacturing sector's expansion slowed down [1] - The composite index for expected output over the next year increased by 7.3 points, marking the largest monthly gain in five years [1] Group 2: Inflation and Costs - Inflation pressures rebounded in November for the first time since July, with businesses reporting higher import tariffs leading to increased costs [1] - The materials prices paid index rose to 63.1, the second-highest level in three years, while the input cost index for services reached its highest level since early 2023 [1] - Service sector pricing also increased, indicating rising costs amid persistent inflation [1] Group 3: Employment and Manufacturing Challenges - Despite high costs, hiring remained moderate, with the composite employment index showing a slight decline [1] - The composite new orders index rose to its highest level of the year, driven entirely by a rebound in service sector demand [2] - Manufacturing faced challenges with slowing new order growth and a significant increase in finished goods inventory, reaching the highest level recorded since 2007 [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Gold prices are oscillating around $4,100 per ounce after three consecutive days of gains, with an annual increase of over 55% in 2025, the best annual performance since 1979. The restart of the US government brings risk - preference repair, while weak employment data, declining business confidence, and interest - rate cut expectations support the medium - term bullish logic. Although the short - term rebound of the US dollar restrains the increase, the gold price center is still supported [1][3]. - Silver has broken through the previous high to $51.7 per ounce, reaching a new stage high. When gold is consolidating, funds are flowing to more volatile precious metals. The tight situation in the London market has been structurally alleviated, but the spot price still gets support from capital momentum and may further rise if gold prices remain strong and the US dollar continues to decline [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections **Key Information** - US House members ended a 53 - day recess and returned to Washington to vote to end the longest government shutdown in US history [2]. - The Russian Ministry of Finance will issue two types of domestic government bonds denominated in RMB on December 8, with maturities ranging from three to seven years [2]. - As of late October, US companies cut more than 11,000 jobs per week, and the consumer confidence continued to decline [2][3]. - China's Ministry of Commerce stated that the US suspension of the export control penetration rule is an important measure to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, and the two sides will continue to discuss the arrangement after the one - year suspension [2]. **Price Logic** - **Gold**: Gold is consolidating in the short - term high range ($4,100 - $4,150). The restart of the US government will bring a window of intensive data in the next three weeks. Preliminary alternative indicators show weak economic momentum. The decline in business confidence and employment slowdown mean that the downward pressure on real interest rates in the fourth quarter persists, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts has room for further strengthening, so the gold price center is still supported [3]. - **Silver**: Silver has broken through the previous high. The tight situation in the London market has been alleviated, and the supply has been replenished. However, the spot price is still supported by capital momentum. If the gold price remains strong and the US dollar continues to decline, the silver price is expected to rise further [3]. **Outlook** - In the short term, attention should be paid to the first batch of macro - data after the government restart and the speeches of Federal Reserve officials. If employment and business confidence remain weak, the pricing of an interest - rate cut in December may be further consolidated. The gold price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the London gold price in the range of $4,070 - $4,200 per ounce, and the London silver price in the range of $49 - $53 per ounce [4][7]. **Commodity Index** - **Composite Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index all showed positive growth on November 12, 2025, with increases of 0.40%, 0.48%, 0.58%, and 0.44% respectively [44]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On November 12, 2025, the precious metals index rose 0.27% for the day, 3.84% in the past 5 days, - 0.77% in the past month, and 52.03% since the beginning of the year [45].

Core Viewpoint - The increasing downside risks in the labor market were a key reason for the Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut is seen as a shift towards a "neutral" policy stance [1] - Future policy directions are not predetermined, indicating a flexible approach to economic conditions [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Current inflation levels remain slightly above the target, with the August core PCE inflation rate expected to be 2.3% [1] - The rise in goods prices is primarily attributed to tariff impacts rather than widespread inflationary pressures [1] Group 3: Consumer and Business Sentiment - Signs of slowing consumer spending have been observed, alongside weakened business confidence due to uncertainty [1] - The vitality of the labor market is showing signs of decline, which may further impact economic growth [1] Group 4: Future Inflation Outlook - Tariffs are expected to potentially lead to a rise in inflation over the next few quarters, although this inflation may be "relatively transient" [1] - The Federal Reserve aims to prevent one-time price increases from evolving into a persistent inflation issue [1]

Core Viewpoint - Delta Air Lines (DAL.N) CEO anticipates improvement in consumer and business confidence in the second quarter due to ongoing trade negotiations [1] Group 1 - The CEO's statement reflects optimism regarding the economic outlook as trade talks progress [1]

Core Insights - The latest Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan indicates that despite the impact of U.S. tariffs, Japanese corporate confidence remains resilient, with investment plans aligning with seasonal trends [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, emphasized that corporate capital investment plans will be a focal point, and the timing of the next interest rate hike will depend on the assessment of tariff policies' impact on the real economy [1] - Mizuho believes that while current data may not significantly influence the Bank's stance, it could provide some confidence to Ueda and his team [1] Corporate Confidence - The confidence index for large manufacturing firms improved unexpectedly compared to the March survey, while the confidence indices for large non-manufacturing firms and small enterprises saw a slight decline [1] - Overall, corporate confidence remains relatively stable despite the influence of U.S. tariff policies [1] Investment Plans - Large enterprises have raised their capital expenditure forecast for FY2025 to a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, while small enterprises adjusted their forecast to a decrease of 5.6%, indicating limited impact from tariffs [2] - The adjustments align with historical trends, suggesting that the tariff effects are manageable [2] Sales and Profit Expectations - Sales for all enterprises in FY2025 are expected to grow by 1.4%, slightly above the 0.8% growth forecast from the March survey [2] - However, profit forecasts have worsened from a decline of 1.4% to a decline of 5.7%, still consistent with historical trends [2] Employment Situation - Labor shortages remain severe, with the employment situation index at -35, only a slight improvement of 2 points from March [2] - The tight labor market is likely to continue exerting structural upward pressure on wages [2] Price Expectations - Current corporate expectations indicate a 2.4% increase in overall prices over the next year, three years, and five years, showing little change from the March survey [2] - Specifically, firms expect output prices to rise by 2.9% in the next year, 4.3% in three years, and 5.1% in five years, also reflecting stability compared to previous surveys [2] - This suggests that U.S. tariffs have not led Japanese firms to adopt a more conservative pricing stance, potentially alleviating the Bank of Japan's concerns about downward price risks [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that New Zealand businesses are showing increased confidence in June, as global tariff tensions ease [1] - 46.3% of surveyed businesses expect overall economic improvement in the next year, up from 36.6% in May [1] - 40.9% of respondents anticipate growth for their own companies in the coming year, a significant increase from 34.8% in May [1]