Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite inflation concerns, U.S. holiday shopping spending is expected to exceed $1 trillion in November and December, showing growth compared to last year [1][2] - The National Retail Federation (NRF) reported that last year's holiday sales reached $976 billion, a 4.3% increase year-over-year, with this year's expected spending projected between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, reflecting a growth of 3.7% to 4.2% [1][2] - NRF's CEO Matthew Shay noted that consumer behavior is surprisingly positive, although consumers are becoming more selective and focused on discounts [1][2] Group 2 - Holiday spending accounts for 19% of total U.S. retail sales, with some retailers relying even more heavily on this period [2] - Various institutions have made predictions regarding retail growth, with Mastercard forecasting a 3.6% increase in retail sales during the holiday season, slightly lower than last year's 4.1% [2] - Deloitte predicts a year-over-year growth of 2.9% to 3.4% for holiday retail sales, while Adobe anticipates online sales to reach $253.4 billion, a 5.3% increase, but lower than last year's 8.7% [2] Group 3 - The timing of the U.S. government shutdown is seen as detrimental, leading to a decline in private sector income and weakening consumer demand [3] - Bank of America warns that tariffs are diminishing U.S. consumer purchasing power, estimating that consumers bear 50% to 70% of the tariff costs, which are expected to continue rising [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views 粕类产业 - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but the cost - side support is strong. The downward space is limited. The near - month shipment crushing margin is negative, and there is still a gap of more than 8 million tons from November to January. With the strengthening support of US soybeans, it is expected to be difficult to purchase cheap soybeans in the future, and the support for soybean meal will increase [1]. 油脂产业 - Palm oil: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures stopped falling and rebounded. It is expected to rebound to the 4200 - 4250 ringgit range in the short - term, and then face resistance. The Dalian palm oil futures market will maintain a volatile rebound trend, and it is expected to rise to the 8800 - 8900 yuan range. - Soybean oil: The US biodiesel policy is unclear. CBOT soybean is near the technical pressure level. CBOT soybean oil has limited upside and will maintain a narrow - range shock in the short - term. Domestically, the supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the basis quotation fluctuates little [2]. 生猪产业 - The spot price has declined recently, the secondary fattening has increased again, the spot supply is normal, and the slaughter enterprises have little difficulty in purchasing. The pig price fluctuates mainly. The overall slaughter progress will slow down in November, which may boost the pig price. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to operate cautiously and be bullish on the single - side. The 3 - 7 reverse spread can continue to be held [4]. 玉米 industry - In the supply side, the supply in the Northeast is sufficient, and the price is stable due to farmers' reluctance to sell and state reserve support. In the North China, the purchase and sale are average, and the price is also stable. In the demand side, the enthusiasm for building inventories in the trading link is average, the deep - processing inventory is stable, and the feed inventory is replenished due to being at a low level, but it is still mainly for rigid demand, and the long - term orders are few. The corn supply rhythm is okay currently, the market is in a low - level shock in the short - term, but there is still selling pressure in November [7]. 白糖 industry - The expected increase in supply surplus, weakening energy prices, and good weather in major producing areas have led to a weak trend in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is also under pressure, but there is significant cost support below 5400. The spot market is tepid, and the market maintains a low - level shock [12]. 棉花 industry - The new cotton cost supports the cotton price, but there is also hedging pressure for the price to rise. The downstream demand is weak, but the finished product inventory pressure is not large, and textile enterprises have demand for purchasing cotton raw materials at low prices. The cotton price may fluctuate in a range in the short - term [13]. 鸡蛋 industry - In the short - term, the egg market has an oversupply pressure. The price may be in a dilemma of rising or falling, but with the slow recovery of demand, it may gradually rise. The egg price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类产业 - **Soybean meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 3060 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.99%) from the previous day. The futures price of M2601 is 3068 yuan, down 2 yuan (-0.16%). The basis of M2601 is - 8 yuan, up 35 yuan (81.40%) [1]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2550 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The futures price of RM2601 is 2549 yuan, up 12 yuan (0.47%). The basis of RM2601 is 1 yuan, down 12 yuan (-92.31%) [1]. - **Soybean**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3920 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract is 4146 yuan, up 23 yuan (0.56%). The basis of the main soybean contract is - 226 yuan, down 23 yuan (-11.33%) [1]. 油脂产业 - **Palm oil**: The current price of Jiangsu's first - grade palm oil is 8390 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.12%). The futures price of Y2601 is 8188 yuan, up 50 yuan (0.61%). The basis of Y2601 is 202 yuan, down 40 yuan (-16.53%) [2]. - **Soybean oil**: The current price of Guangdong's 24 - degree palm oil is 8540 yuan, down 10 yuan (-0.12%). The futures price of P2601 is 8732 yuan, up 142 yuan (1.65%). The basis of P2601 is - 192 yuan, down 152 yuan (-380.00%) [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The current price of Jiangsu's third - grade rapeseed oil is 9780 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.31%). The futures price of OI601 is 9564 yuan, up 157 yuan (1.67%). The basis of OI601 is 216 yuan, down 127 yuan (-37.03%) [2]. 生猪 industry - **Futures indicators**: The price of the main contract of live pigs 2605 is 12025 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (-0.12%); the price of live pigs 2601 is 11940 yuan, down 5 yuan (-0.04%); the 1 - 5 spread is - 82 yuan, up 10 yuan (10.53%) [4]. - **Spot prices**: The spot price in Henan is 11900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Shandong is 12020 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; in Sichuan is 11450 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 玉米 industry - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 is 2154 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (0.94%); the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2150 yuan, unchanged; the basis is - 4 yuan, down 20 yuan (-125.00%) [7]. - **Corn starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 is 2469 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan (0.73%); the spot price in Changchun is 2510 yuan, unchanged; the basis is 41 yuan, down 18 yuan (-30.51%) [7]. 白糖 industry - **Futures market**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5448 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan (0.13%); the price of sugar 2605 is 5388 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (-0.09%); the ICE raw sugar main contract is 14.22 cents/pound, up 0.10 cents (0.71%) [12]. - **Spot market**: The spot price in Nanning is 5750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan (0.88%); the Nanning basis is 362 yuan, up 55 yuan (17.92%) [12]. 棉花 industry - **Futures market**: The price of cotton 2605 is 13615 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-0.04%); the price of cotton 2601 is 13605 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.07%); the ICE US cotton main contract is 64.48 cents/pound, down 0.59 cents (-0.91%) [13]. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 14618 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (-0.06%); the CC Index of 3128B is 14820 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (-0.03%) [13]. 鸡蛋 industry - **Futures indicators**: The price of the egg 12 - contract is 3227 yuan/500KG, up 10 yuan (0.31%); the price of the egg 01 - contract is 3386 yuan, up 1 yuan (0.03%); the basis is - 295 yuan/500KG, up 37 yuan (11.19%) [15]. - **Related indicators**: The egg - laying chicken chick price is 2.80 yuan/feather, up 0.15 yuan (5.66%); the culled chicken price is 4.11 yuan/jin, down 0.18 yuan (-4.20%); the egg - feed ratio is 2.38, up 0.03 (1.28%) [15].

当地时间11月6日，美国总统特朗普在回答记者"是否认同美国民众正在为关税买单"的问题时，表示"不 同意"。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 特朗普同时承认"他们可能付出了一些代价"，但又称"总体来看美国人获得了巨大好处"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contradictory stance of the U.S. regarding tariffs on China, particularly in the context of rare earth elements, highlighting the U.S.'s heavy reliance on Chinese supplies while threatening to impose additional tariffs [1][5]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy and Rare Earth Dependency - The U.S. is heavily dependent on China for rare earth elements, with 83.7% of its supply coming from China, particularly in heavy rare earths, which are almost entirely imported [5]. - Despite a recent trade truce where the U.S. agreed to cancel 91% of tariffs on China, the U.S. is threatening to raise tariffs again due to China's control over rare earth resources, which could lead to a detrimental cycle of retaliation [5][7]. - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce estimates that continued tariffs could cost American businesses an additional $42 billion annually, impacting consumers and producers alike [5]. Group 2: International Reactions and Market Dynamics - While the U.S. calls for a "tariff alliance" against China, many allies are opening their markets to China, with the EU canceling punitive tariffs and Australia committing to zero tariffs on dairy and wine products [7][8]. - Japan has also implemented zero tariffs on 86% of goods from China under the RCEP framework, benefiting from reduced prices on popular products [8][10]. - The article emphasizes that in the context of globalization, trade benefits are prioritized over political posturing, as companies recognize the necessity of engaging with the Chinese market [10][11]. Group 3: The Future of Trade Relations - The U.S.'s inconsistent tariff policies are portrayed as a political performance, but the ultimate determinant of trade relations will be market forces [11]. - The article concludes that the essence of international relations is not zero-sum competition but rather opportunities for mutual growth and wealth creation [11].

特朗普改口承认，由于政府所设定的关税，美国消费者确实在为商品支付更高的价格。在被问及是否同意美国人在承担关税的看法时，特朗普称：“不，我不同意。我认为他们可能确实承担了一些费用。但从整体影响来看，美国人获益匪浅。 ...

Core Insights - The potential ruling by the Supreme Court on tariffs could lead to a short-term positive impact on equities, particularly for consumer companies that have not yet recovered from pandemic-related challenges [2][10] - The current bond yields are perceived to be low, with expectations that they should be closer to 4.5% for the 10-year yield, raising concerns about government revenue from tariffs and the overall deficit [4][8] - The contribution of tariff revenue to the government budget is considered overstated, as the impact on corporate profits and subsequent tax revenues must also be taken into account [5][8] Tariffs and Market Impact - The removal of tariffs could be viewed as a tax cut, potentially benefiting the market and consumer companies significantly [6][10] - There is skepticism regarding the sustainability of tariff revenue, especially in light of the overall government spending of $7 trillion, indicating that the tariffs may not significantly affect the budget [7][8] - The discussion around tariffs has been ongoing for several months, with indications that the Supreme Court may rule them illegal, which could drastically change the market landscape [9][10] Job Market and Economic Indicators - Recent job market data indicates the largest drop in layoffs in October in 20 years, suggesting a significant slowdown in the job market [11] - Despite the negative job market indicators, some high-frequency data suggests that the economy may be moving past the worst phase and approaching slightly positive conditions [12][13] - The overall assessment of the American economy indicates a prolonged slowdown, with revisions and measurement issues complicating the understanding of the current state [12][13]

Group 1 - Acarix is addressing global challenges, including geopolitical issues and tariffs, while maintaining a focus on shareholder value [1] - The company is evaluating onshoring opportunities in the U.S. to enhance redundancy capacity [1] - CADScor is a device that utilizes high fidelity acoustics and computational learning to risk-stratify patients at the point of care within 4 to 6 minutes [2]

Market Performance - Wall Street closed higher with all three major stock indexes ending in positive territory, driven by optimism regarding potential tariff recalls and strong economic data [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 0.5% or 225.76 points to close at 47,311.00, with 16 of the 30 components in positive territory [2] - The Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.7% or 151.16 points, closing at 23,499.78, largely due to the strong performance of AI infrastructure companies [2] - The S&P 500 gained 0.4% to finish at 6,796.29, with nine out of eleven sectors in positive territory, particularly the Consumer Discretionary and Materials sectors [3] Volatility and Trading Activity - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) decreased by 5.2% to 18.01, indicating reduced market fear [4] - A total of 19.17 billion shares were traded, which is lower than the 20-session average of 20.96 billion, suggesting a decrease in trading volume [4] - Advancers outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a ratio of 2.09-to-1, and on the Nasdaq, the ratio was 1.84-to-1, indicating overall positive market sentiment [4] Legal Context of Tariffs - The Supreme Court began hearing arguments regarding the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, questioning the authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [5] - U.S. Solicitor General argued that the tariffs are incidental and not primarily revenue-raising, but justices expressed skepticism about the President's authority [6] - Chief Justice John Roberts highlighted that imposing taxes is traditionally a power of Congress, raising doubts about the tariffs' legal standing [7]

Core Insights - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing a complex scenario characterized by strong consumer spending, rising AI investments, and a softening labor market [1][3] - The growth is primarily driven by productivity improvements from AI investments, which have both direct and indirect effects on demand and confidence [1][3] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the current productivity growth is a short-term cyclical rebound or a long-term structural shift [1][3] Economic Dynamics - Two opposing forces are influencing the U.S. economy: trade and tariff pressures, which are negative, and the positive impact of AI [3][4] - The current economic growth is strong, with productivity growth being a key factor explaining the disparity between output and employment growth [3][4] - The potential for higher structural growth in the U.S. economy is acknowledged, but the exact nature of productivity growth remains uncertain [3][4] AI and Employment - While AI investments are significant, there are concerns that they may lead to structural unemployment as certain skilled jobs could be replaced [1][11] - Individuals are advised to develop transferable skills to mitigate the risks associated with over-specialization in fields vulnerable to AI [1][11] - The historical context suggests that technological advancements have led to some job losses, but the current situation may be different, particularly for skilled labor [11] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates is limited due to the mixed economic signals and the potential for inflationary pressures from tariffs [5][6] - Inflation is currently around 3%, which is above the Fed's target of 2%, leading to cautious monetary policy considerations [6][7] - The impact of tariffs on consumer demand and business investment is still unfolding, with uncertainty surrounding the long-term effects [8][9] Tariff Implications - Tariffs have not yet significantly impacted consumer behavior, but their effects may become more pronounced as import prices rise [8][9] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is causing businesses to be cautious in their investment decisions, potentially leading to a decline in overall investment [8][9] - The current fiscal implications of tariffs are limited, primarily serving as a source of government revenue without altering fiscal policy direction [8][9] Inflation Expectations - The potential for inflation to manifest from tariffs is acknowledged, but the timing and magnitude of such effects remain uncertain [9][10] - The credibility of the Federal Reserve's inflation target will play a crucial role in shaping long-term inflation expectations [10] - Short-term inflationary pressures may arise, but they are expected to subside if confidence in the Fed's target remains intact [10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2, net sales increased by 14% year-over-year, reaching $344 million, following a 40% growth in the same quarter last year [20][22] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $66 million, down 4% compared to the previous year [22] - Adjusted net income was $41 million, or 68 cents per diluted share, compared to $45 million, or 77 cents per diluted share a year ago [22] - Gross margin for Q2 was 69%, down approximately 165 basis points year-over-year, primarily due to increased tariff costs [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The acquisition of Rhode contributed $52 million, or approximately 17 percentage points, to net sales in Q2 [20][22] - Organic net sales, excluding Rhode, were down approximately 3% this quarter [3][20] - e.l.f. brand grew 7% in Q2, significantly outpacing the overall category growth of approximately 2% [2][3] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. net sales grew 18% year-over-year in Q2, while international net sales grew 2% [20][21] - e.l.f. Beauty gained 140 basis points of market share in Q2, marking the 27th consecutive quarter of market share gains [2][3] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for full-year net sales growth of 18%-20% year-over-year, building on the 28% growth achieved in fiscal 2025 [4][25] - The addition of Rhode is expected to enhance long-term growth, with projected contributions of about $200 million in net sales for fiscal 2026 [5][26] - The company is focused on expanding its international presence, with launches planned in Poland and the Gulf Cooperation Council [13][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing strength of consumption trends and market share gains, indicating a positive outlook for fiscal 2026 [4][27] - The company anticipates that shipments will remain below consumption in fiscal 2026, particularly as they cycle through significant distribution gains from the previous year [4][27] - Management noted that the pricing strategy is designed to maintain price sanctity across retailers, which has been successfully resolved after initial delays [38] Other Important Information - The company has successfully transitioned to SAP for its ERP system, marking a significant milestone in its operational capabilities [23] - The marketing and digital investment for Q2 was 23% of net sales, slightly down from 24% in the previous year [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more insight into the corporate top-line guidance and the impact of shipments versus underlying consumption? - Management noted that consumption outperformed category growth, with e.l.f. brand growing 7% compared to the category's 2% [34] - The disconnect between consumption and shipments was primarily due to pricing issues, which are expected to normalize in the second half [34][35] Question: What are the expectations for organic growth in the second half? - Management expects organic growth of 2%-5% in the second half, driven by strong consumption trends [35][36] Question: How does the company view tariffs and their impact on inventory? - Management indicated that tariffs have been reduced to 45%, which is expected to improve gross margins in the second half [44][45] Question: What is the strategy for Rhode's distribution between wholesale and DTC? - The company plans to focus on both wholesale and DTC channels, with exclusive drops on their DTC site to drive sales [57] Question: Can you elaborate on the expected slowdown in organic growth for the core business? - Management highlighted that while consumption remains strong, the expected slowdown is due to cycling space expansions from the previous year [72][74]