Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance reported a decline in national public budget revenue for the first five months of the year, indicating challenges in fiscal performance despite some positive trends in specific tax categories [2][3]. Revenue Analysis - Total public budget revenue reached 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [2]. - Tax revenue amounted to 79,156 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 6.2% to 17,467 billion yuan [2]. - Central government revenue was 41,486 billion yuan, a decline of 3%, while local government revenue grew by 1.9% to 55,137 billion yuan [2]. Tax Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax grew by 2.4% to 30,850 billion yuan, with the increase attributed to a low base effect from the previous year [3]. - Corporate income tax saw a year-on-year decline of 2.5%, although the rate of decline improved by 0.6 percentage points [2][3]. - Personal income tax increased by 8.2%, benefiting from a low base effect as well [2][3]. - Securities transaction stamp duty surged by 52.4% to 66.8 billion yuan, indicating a significant recovery in capital market activity [3]. Expenditure Trends - National public budget expenditure reached 112,953 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [3]. - Spending on livelihood-related areas maintained a growth rate of approximately 7.8%, while infrastructure spending decreased by 7.7% [4]. - Expenditure on technology and innovation surged by 20.1%, highlighting a focus on enhancing industrial resilience [4]. Fiscal Policy Outlook - The overall fiscal deficit reached 3.30 trillion yuan by May, with a deficit rate of 2.4%, higher than most levels in the past five years [5]. - The sustainability of fiscal efforts post-June is under scrutiny, especially as previous fiscal measures have relied heavily on government debt financing [5]. - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for timely policy adjustments to stabilize employment and the economy, with expectations for more fiscal measures in the second half of the year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The audit report from the National Audit Office outlines the central budget execution and other fiscal revenues and expenditures for the year 2024, indicating a balanced budget with a deficit of 33,400 million yuan [1] Group 1: Central Budget Overview - The total revenue of the central general public budget is projected to be 108,844.06 million yuan, while the total expenditure is expected to reach 142,244.06 million yuan, resulting in a deficit of 33,400 million yuan, which aligns with the budget plan [1] - The central government fund budget is expected to have a total revenue of 15,126.64 million yuan and total expenditure of 14,711.77 million yuan [1] - The central state-owned capital operation budget is projected to have a revenue of 2,359.42 million yuan and expenditure of 2,305.2 million yuan [1] - The central social insurance fund budget is expected to have a revenue of 3,005.6 million yuan and expenditure of 2,959.73 million yuan, with a year-end balance of 85.58 million yuan [1] Group 2: Investment Allocation - The National Development and Reform Commission is managing the allocation of 700,000 million yuan in central budget investments, with 1,635 million yuan designated for central-level expenditures and 5,365 million yuan for transfers to local governments [1] - The investments are primarily directed towards eight key areas, including the construction of a modern industrial system, new urbanization, rural revitalization, regional coordinated development, and the advancement of national security systems and capabilities [1]

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue was 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to January to April [1] - Tax revenue for the same period was 79,156 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points; non-tax revenue was 17,467 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.5 percentage points [1] - In May, the general public budget revenue growth rate was 0.1%, slowing by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, with tax revenue growth dropping from 1.9% to 0.6% and non-tax revenue turning negative at -2.2% [2] Group 2: Fiscal Expenditure - From January to May, national general public budget expenditure was 112,953 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with the growth rate falling by 0.4 percentage points [1] - In May, general public budget expenditure grew by 2.6% year-on-year, slowing by 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, with significant declines in infrastructure spending, which fell by 7.7% [4] - Key areas of expenditure such as social security and employment saw a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, while education and health spending grew by 6.7% and 3.9%, respectively [4] Group 3: Economic Analysis - The slowdown in revenue is attributed to factors such as the decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), the unsustainable high growth of non-tax revenue, and weakened land transfer income [1] - The analysis indicates that the increase in value-added tax revenue reflects a trend of economic recovery, supported by robust growth in the equipment manufacturing sector [2] - The government is expected to accelerate bond issuance to support fiscal expenditure, especially in light of the revenue slowdown and strong expenditure performance in the first four months [5]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's fiscal revenue and expenditure, highlighting a slight decline in growth rates for both public fiscal revenue and tax revenue in May, while also addressing the implications of these trends on broader economic conditions and fiscal policy. Fiscal Revenue Trends - In May, public fiscal revenue growth slowed to 0.1% year-on-year, down from 1.9% in the previous month, while tax revenue growth also decreased to 0.6% from 1.9% [1][5][6] - Non-tax revenue turned negative for the first time in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 2.2%, attributed to reduced reliance on non-tax revenue and a significant downward adjustment in the growth target for non-tax revenue [1][5] - Cumulatively, public fiscal revenue for the first five months showed a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, narrowing the gap from the annual target by 0.37 percentage points [1][5] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Value-added tax performed well with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.4%, likely linked to improved industrial profits [8] - Personal income tax saw a significant increase of 8.2% year-on-year, influenced by a low base, tax reconciliations, and active second-hand housing transactions [8] - Consumption tax showed neutral performance, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.6%, reflecting a mismatch with high retail sales growth [9] Fiscal Expenditure Insights - In May, narrow fiscal expenditure growth slowed to 2.6%, with central government expenditure rising by 11.0% and local government expenditure increasing by 0.9% [12] - The resilience in expenditure is attributed to the accelerated issuance of ordinary government bonds, which reached 39% of the annual target by May, the highest level in recent years [12][13] - Social security and employment expenditures maintained high growth rates, reflecting strong fiscal support for social security funds and employment policies [12] Broader Fiscal Context - Government fund revenue growth turned negative again in May, with a year-on-year decline of 8.1%, primarily due to a significant drop in land use rights revenue [15][16] - The real estate market's performance is a key constraint, with land sales showing a downward trend in April and May [15][16] - The overall fiscal situation indicates that while narrow fiscal targets may be met, broader fiscal outcomes remain uncertain due to fluctuations in the land market [15][16] Future Outlook - The improvement of macroeconomic price levels, particularly the Producer Price Index (PPI), is crucial for enhancing corporate profits and tax revenues [17] - The establishment of new policy financial tools is anticipated to support infrastructure investment and credit growth, potentially alleviating construction sector challenges [17]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue and expenditure data for the first five months of the year indicate a mixed performance, with revenue slightly declining while expenditure shows growth, reflecting a stable fiscal environment despite challenges in revenue generation [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue reached 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline rate narrowing compared to the previous month [2][4]. - General public budget expenditure totaled 112,953 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, although the growth rate has slightly decreased [2][4]. - In May alone, public fiscal revenue grew by 0.13% year-on-year, while public fiscal expenditure increased by 2.63%, both showing a certain degree of slowdown [4]. Group 2: Deficit and Budget Execution - The actual deficit from January to May reached 16,330 billion yuan, the highest in five years, compared to 11,447 billion yuan in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 4,883 billion yuan [5]. - The broad deficit, considering government funds, amounted to 32,972 billion yuan, up from 29,380 billion yuan last year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3,592 billion yuan [5]. - By the end of May, public fiscal revenue completed 43.9% of the annual budget, a 0.6 percentage point increase from last year, while public fiscal expenditure accounted for 38.0% of the budget, remaining stable compared to last year [6]. Group 3: Revenue Structure - Non-tax revenue showed a cumulative growth of 6.2%, although the growth rate has declined, while tax revenue decreased by 1.6%, with the decline rate narrowing [9]. - In May, tax revenue increased by 0.6% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue fell by 2.2% [9]. - Key tax categories showed varied trends, with corporate income tax declining by 2.5% year-on-year but at a reduced rate, while value-added tax increased by 2.4%, indicating improvement in corporate operations [9]. Group 4: Government Spending - Central government spending has shown significant growth, with May's expenditure rising by 11.04% year-on-year, outpacing local government spending growth of 10.1% [12]. - Expenditure in key areas such as science and technology grew by 20.15%, while cultural, tourism, and sports spending increased by 16.2% [12]. - Infrastructure spending in areas like energy conservation and environmental protection grew by 4.6%, although other sectors like transportation and rural affairs saw declines [12]. Group 5: Government Fund Budget - National government fund budget expenditure increased significantly, with a total of 32,125 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16% [16]. - Government fund budget revenue reached 15,483 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, with local government fund income declining by 8.3% [16]. - Central government fund budget expenditure surged by 64.4%, while local government fund expenditure grew by 14.9% [16].

丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 收入改善有波折，支出放缓待发力 ——5 月财政数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 1-5 月财政收支有以下特点：1）财政收入累计降幅收窄，但税收修复边际有所放缓； 2）个人所得税延续修复，地产相关税收拖累加剧；3）财政支出节奏边际放缓，基建支出降幅 走扩；4）政府性基金收入降幅走扩、支出放缓。往前看，若下半年国内外形势出现新的变化， 财政应对主要有三条：1）加速存量，重点关注用于项目建设的专项债发行是否提速；2）调整 存量，重点关注财政资金对于地产相关、促消费、保民生等领域的支持和补贴力度；3）储备增 量，包括政府债限额空间、央行利润上缴、财政结余资金、类财政工具、新增政府债额度等。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 宋筱筱 蒋佳榛 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490520080011 SAC：S0490524080005 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BVZ974 2025 年 6 月 20 日，财政部公布 2025 年 1-5 月财政数据：1-5 月，全国一般公共预算收入 ...

Revenue Insights - In May, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 16,007 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of only 0.13%, a decline of 1.76 percentage points from the previous value[3] - Cumulative public budget revenue from January to May decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, maintaining a similar decline as the previous value[3] - Tax revenue growth faced obstacles, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.6% in May, down from 1.9% previously, leading to a cumulative decline of 1.6% year-on-year[3] Expenditure Trends - Public budget expenditure in May reached CNY 19,372 billion, growing by 2.6% year-on-year, a slowdown from the previous 5.8%[4] - Cumulative expenditure growth from January to May was 4.2%, still above the annual target growth rate[4] - Science and technology expenditure surged by 20% year-on-year, while infrastructure spending showed a decline, with agricultural and community affairs down by 11.5% and 8.4% respectively[4] Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue in May was CNY 2,897 billion, a decrease of 8.2% year-on-year, marking a significant drop of 16 percentage points from the previous value[5] - Government fund expenditure grew by 8.8% year-on-year in May, although this was a decrease from the previous month's growth of 45%[5] - By the end of May, government fund expenditure progress was approximately 25.7% of the annual target, still higher than the same period in 2024[5] Economic Outlook - The marginal slowdown in fiscal revenue and expenditure suggests a focus on technology, consumption, and livelihood support, with expectations for continued stable issuance of government bonds in the third quarter[6] - Potential economic pressures due to tariff disturbances may lead to further fiscal stimulus, likely through new policy financial tools[6]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance reported a slight decline in national public budget revenue for the first five months of the year, with a total revenue of approximately 9.66 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Tax revenue amounted to about 7.92 trillion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to the previous months [1][2]. - Non-tax revenue reached 1.75 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, although this growth has slowed compared to earlier months [1][6]. Tax Categories - Domestic value-added tax (VAT) was approximately 3.09 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, aligning with stable growth in industrial output and service production [2]. - Corporate income tax totaled 2.18 trillion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year, indicating a trend of "increased revenue without increased profit" among businesses [2]. - Export tax rebates were 1.08 trillion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year, reflecting resilient export performance [2]. - Personal income tax reached 657.2 billion yuan, with an 8.2% year-on-year increase, indicating strong growth in individual earnings [2][4]. Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector showed significant tax revenue growth, with railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace manufacturing increasing by 28.8%, and computer and communication equipment manufacturing by 11.9% [6]. - The cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors saw a tax revenue increase of 7.8%, driven by recovering consumer demand [6]. - The digital economy and related sectors also performed well, with tax revenue from information transmission and software services growing by 10%, and scientific research and technical services by 12.7% [6]. Expenditure Insights - Total public budget expenditure for the first five months was approximately 11.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, indicating strong government spending despite declining revenue [6]. - The issuance of local special bonds accelerated, with 1.6 trillion yuan issued, accounting for 37% of the annual quota [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the continuous growth in both revenue and expenditure in the region's fiscal budget for the first five months of the year, with public budget revenue reaching 755.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and public budget expenditure totaling 2563.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1] - Tax revenue has shown a positive trend, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4% for the first five months, improving significantly from a mere 0.04% growth in the first four months [1] - Expenditure from municipal and county finances has also increased, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%, and 13 out of 14 municipalities reporting positive growth in expenditure [1] Group 2 - In the area of public welfare, spending reached a historical high of 2014.88 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, maintaining a proportion of around 80% of total public budget expenditure [2] - Significant growth was observed in various sectors, including commercial services (38.2%), energy conservation and environmental protection (31.8%), transportation (25.8%), technology (15.1%), agriculture (10.3%), and education (8.9%) [2]

Group 1 - The effectiveness of fiscal policy is beginning to show, but revenue is still below budget targets. The general public budget revenue for the first four months was 8.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.4%, which is lower than the previous year's growth of 1.3% and the initial budget target of 0.1% [4][5][26] - Monthly improvements in revenue are observed, with April's revenue growth turning positive at 1.9%. The revenue completion rate for the first four months was 36.7%, slightly below the average of the past five years [4][6] - Government expenditure has exceeded targets, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6% for the first four months, surpassing the budget target of 4.4%. The expenditure completion rate reached 31.5%, the highest since 2020 [6][9] Group 2 - The narrow fiscal deficit for the first four months reached 1.3 trillion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period, with a usage rate of 16.8%, significantly above the average of 12% over the past five years [13][14] - The issuance of government bonds has been accelerated, contributing to a rapid usage of the narrow deficit. The net financing of ordinary government bonds reached 1.9 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.4% of the annual central deficit target [14][18] - Special bonds have seen a slower issuance pace, with a completion rate of 37.1% for the first five months, which is higher than the previous year but lower than the levels seen in 2022 and 2023 [18][19] Group 3 - There is a potential need for incremental support, with a projected revenue gap of approximately 550 billion yuan for 2025. If revenue performance does not improve, there may be a possibility of increasing government debt quotas [3][26] - Special bonds are expected to be a focus for fiscal efforts in the second half of the year, with an anticipated increase in funds for land reserves, which could alleviate liquidity pressures for real estate companies [27][31] - New policy financial tools are expected to be implemented in the second half of the year, aimed at supporting investment in urban renewal and various infrastructure projects [33]