Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is intensifying its fiscal policy efforts as the year-end approaches, with a focus on advancing the planning and issuance of special bonds for 2026 to support key projects and economic recovery [1][2][3] Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Special Bonds - The Ministry of Finance plans to continue issuing new local government debt limits for 2026 to ensure funding for major projects and bolster economic recovery [1] - Various regions, such as Hubei and Jiangxi, have initiated the planning and review of special bond projects for 2026, focusing on areas like education, healthcare, and urban infrastructure [1][2] - As of November 23, the total issuance of new special bonds this year has reached approximately 42,315 billion yuan, achieving 96% of the annual target of 44,000 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Importance of Project Planning - Experts emphasize the necessity of early planning for special bond investment projects, particularly those aimed at urban renewal and improving living conditions, to ensure a stable economic outlook and high-quality development [2] - The proactive approach of local governments in preparing for 2026 special bond projects reflects a strong commitment to stabilizing investment and expanding domestic demand [2][3] - The successful issuance of special bonds this year has played a crucial role in stabilizing the macro economy and enhancing public welfare, laying a solid foundation for future fiscal policy continuity [3]

导语 增量政策已经陆续出台。 今年以来中国财政政策更加积极，财政支出保持一定力度，推动经济持续回升向好。 根据财政部最新数据测算，今年前10个月，广义财政（即全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）收 入约22.1万亿元，同比增长约0.2%；广义财政支出约30.7万亿元，同比增长约5.2%；广义财政支出超过 收入约8.6万亿元，同比增长约21%。 财政部数据显示，今年前10个月，全国一般公共预算支出中的农林水支出、城乡社区支出分别同比下滑 11.7%和7.3%，交通运输支出与去年同期基本持平。 不过，除了全国一般公共预算资金支持基建外，在地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等支撑之下，政 府性基金支出保持较快增长，支持了一大批重大项目开工建设，稳投资稳经济。 财政部数据显示，今年前10个月，全国政府性基金预算支出约8.1万亿元，同比增长15.4%。这主要是各 级财政持续加快债券资金使用，地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债、中央金融机构注资特别国债等资 金共支出4.54万亿元。 尽管前10个月广义财政支出保持一定增长，不过第三季度支出增速持续放缓，其中10月份广义财政支出 增速出现两位数下滑。根据今年初中央与地方预算报 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's fiscal policy has become more proactive this year, with fiscal spending maintaining a certain level of intensity, which supports the continuous recovery of the economy [3]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first ten months of this year, the broad fiscal revenue was approximately 22.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 0.2%, while broad fiscal expenditure was about 30.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [3]. - The broad fiscal expenditure exceeded revenue by approximately 8.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21% [3]. Fiscal Spending Structure - The structure of fiscal spending has shown a clear tilt towards the livelihood sector, aligning with the government's report advocating for more resources to be "invested in people" [4]. - In the first ten months, the general public budget expenditure was approximately 22.6 trillion yuan, with social security and employment spending reaching 3.8 trillion yuan, education spending at 3.4 trillion yuan, and health spending at 1.7 trillion yuan, all showing growth rates above the average of 2% [4]. Infrastructure Spending - Due to increased funding directed towards livelihood, infrastructure spending in the general public budget has seen an overall decline [5]. - Expenditures on agriculture, forestry, and water, as well as urban and rural community spending, decreased by 11.7% and 7.3% respectively [7]. Government Fund Expenditure - Government fund budget expenditure was approximately 8.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, primarily due to accelerated use of bond funds [7]. - The issuance of special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds has supported the commencement of numerous major projects, stabilizing investment and the economy [7]. Future Fiscal Policy Measures - To maintain a certain level of fiscal spending, new policies have been introduced, including allowing local governments to issue an additional 500 billion yuan in special bonds [9]. - As of mid-November, over 10 billion yuan in new special bonds had been issued, surpassing the total for October [9].

Hot News - The Minister of Finance, Lan Fuan, stated that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, funds such as special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be used comprehensively to optimize government investment directions and encourage private capital to participate in major project construction; tax, social security, and transfer payments will be adjusted to optimize the income distribution structure and boost consumption; and work will be done to replace the existing implicit debts of local governments, with strict accountability for illegal debt-raising and false debt reduction [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics announced that in October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The non-manufacturing PMI was 50.1, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The composite PMI output index was 50%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ni Hong, pointed out that the real estate development, financing, and sales systems need to be reformed and improved. In terms of commercial housing sales, the spot sales system will be promoted to fundamentally prevent delivery risks; for pre-sales, the supervision of pre-sale funds will be standardized to protect the legitimate rights and interests of homebuyers [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced that soybean meal and corn series options contracts will be listed for trading on February 2, 2026 (i.e., the night session on January 30). The first batch of contracts will start with the series options contracts corresponding to soybean meal M2607 and corn C2607 [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Tax Administration issued an announcement on the tax policy for gold, which will be implemented from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027. Industry insiders believe that the policy further improves the existing gold market policy, better distinguishes the commodity and financial attributes of gold, and the adjustment of the VAT policy for gold purchased on the exchange is expected to make the gold market consumption and investment environment more transparent and healthy [3] Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, crude oil, and PVC [4] Holiday Overseas Performance Sector Performance - Non-metallic building materials had a 3.11% increase; precious metals had a 29.39% increase; oilseeds and oils had a 9.56% increase; non-ferrous metals had a 23.08% increase; soft commodities had a 2.66% increase; coal, coke, and steel mines had a 13.49% increase; energy had a 2.87% increase; chemicals had a 10.78% increase; grains had a 1.15% increase; and agricultural and sideline products had a 3.92% increase [4] Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, Wind energy, Wind coal, coke, and steel mines, Wind non-ferrous metals, Wind commodity composites, Wind soft commodities, Wind oilseeds and oils, Wind precious metals, and Wind non-metallic building materials [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.81%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 17.99%; the SSE 50 had a daily decline of 1.15%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 12.17%; the CSI 300 had a daily decline of 1.47%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 17.94%; the CSI 500 had a daily decline of 0.74%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 28.04%; the S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.26%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 16.30%; the Hang Seng Index had a daily decline of 1.43%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 29.15%; the German DAX had a daily decline of 0.67%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 20.34%; the Nikkei 225 had a daily increase of 2.12%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 31.37%; the UK FTSE 100 had a daily decline of 0.44%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 18.89% [6] Fixed Income - The 10-year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.04%, an annual decrease of 0.22%; the 5-year treasury bond futures had a daily decline of -0.01%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual decrease of 0.45%; the 2-year treasury bond futures had a daily decline of -0.02%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual decrease of 0.42% [6] Commodity - The CRB commodity index had a daily increase of 0.59%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 1.96%; WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 0.50%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual decrease of -15.36%; London spot gold had a daily decline of -0.54%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 52.53%; LME copper had a daily decline of -0.23%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 24.03%; the Wind commodity index had a daily increase of 1.47%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 30.63% [6] Other - The US dollar index had a daily increase of 0.19%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual decrease of -8.07%; the CBOE Volatility Index had a daily increase of 3.13%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 0.52% [6] Main Commodity Trends - The document presents the trends of various commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3-month copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the risk premium of the stock market [7]

Key Points - In October, China's manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an additional 200 billion yuan in special bond quotas to support investment construction in certain provinces [2] - The China Iron and Steel Association indicated that the new supply-demand balance in the steel market is not yet solid, and self-discipline needs to be strengthened in the fourth quarter [3] Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce highlighted the inclusion of trade and environment provisions in free trade agreements, such as the recently signed China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 upgrade, which prioritizes green trade [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing PMI for October was influenced by pre-holiday demand release and complex international conditions [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology noted rapid growth in China's electronic information manufacturing, with smartphone production reaching 881 million units, a 1% year-on-year increase [1] International News - The U.S. Senate voted to cancel the "national emergency" invoked by President Trump for global tariffs [4] - U.S. Treasury Secretary criticized the Federal Reserve's recent monetary policy decisions, calling for a thorough reform of its mechanisms [4] - Tokyo's core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year in October, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target, maintaining expectations for short-term interest rate hikes [4] Economic Data and Market Overview - The Eurozone economy showed a slight growth of 0.2% in Q3, slightly above market expectations, but significant downside risks remain [5] - The latest market indices showed declines across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81% [5]

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a total of 500 billion yuan allocated for local government debt limits to enhance fiscal capacity and expand effective investment [1] - An additional 200 billion yuan in special bond quotas has been introduced to support investment construction in certain provinces [1] - The NDRC is actively promoting the issuance and utilization of these new quotas to accelerate project commencement and increase physical work volume [2] Investment and Financial Tools - The NDRC, in collaboration with various financial and regulatory bodies, has successfully deployed 500 billion yuan through new policy financial tools, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan [1] - Key investment areas include digital economy, artificial intelligence, consumer infrastructure, and urban renewal projects such as transportation, energy, and underground pipeline construction [1] - The initiative aims to bolster support for economically significant provinces and facilitate private investment in critical sectors [1] Future Directions - The NDRC plans to work with relevant departments to expedite project construction and increase physical work output, thereby promoting effective investment and high-quality development [2]

Core Points - The article discusses the recent developments in the financial sector, highlighting key trends and shifts in investment strategies [1] Group 1 - The financial industry is experiencing significant changes due to evolving market conditions and regulatory frameworks [1] - Companies are adapting their investment approaches to align with new consumer behaviors and technological advancements [1] - There is an increasing focus on sustainable investing, with firms prioritizing environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors in their decision-making processes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is accelerating the implementation of policies to expand effective investment, with a focus on local government debt management and investment projects [1] Group 1: Investment Policy - The NDRC has allocated 500 billion yuan to enhance local government financial capacity and expand effective investment [1] - An additional 200 billion yuan in special bond quotas has been designated specifically to support investment construction in certain provinces [1] Group 2: Implementation and Oversight - The NDRC will supervise and guide relevant provinces in utilizing the new bond quotas effectively [1] - There is an emphasis on accelerating the issuance and use of special bonds, as well as expediting project commencement to quickly generate tangible work output [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is accelerating the implementation of policies to expand effective investment, with a focus on utilizing newly allocated funds for local government projects [1] Investment Policy - A total of 500 billion yuan has been allocated in the local government debt limit to enhance local financial capacity and expand effective investment [1] - An additional 200 billion yuan in special bond quotas has been introduced specifically to support investment construction in certain provinces [1] Implementation Strategy - The NDRC will supervise and guide relevant provinces to effectively utilize the new quotas, expedite the issuance and use of special bonds, and accelerate the commencement of projects to quickly generate tangible work output [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has allocated 500 billion yuan to enhance local government financial capacity and stimulate effective investment, with a focus on issuing special bonds to support provincial infrastructure projects [1] Group 1: Financial Allocation - A total of 500 billion yuan has been arranged in the local government debt limit to bolster comprehensive financial capacity [1] - An additional 200 billion yuan in special bond quotas has been designated specifically for investment in certain provinces [1] Group 2: Implementation and Oversight - The NDRC will supervise and guide relevant provinces in effectively utilizing the new bond quotas [1] - There is an emphasis on accelerating the issuance and use of special bonds, as well as expediting project commencement to quickly generate tangible work output [1]