Economic Performance Overview - In July, China's economic growth rate slowed due to extreme weather conditions, but it remained above the 5% target level, with a focus on utilizing existing policies while maintaining proactive measures [1][3] - The service sector outperformed the industrial sector in July, with the service production index decreasing by 0.2 percentage points to 5.8%, while industrial added value fell by 1.1 percentage points to 5.7% [1][3] Demand and Consumption - Exports in July increased by 7.2% year-on-year in USD terms, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points compared to June, driven by a "rush to re-export" effect before the expiration of "reciprocal tariffs" [1][2] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year in July, a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, with dining revenue rebounding slightly while commodity retail growth slowed [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment from January to July grew by 1.6% year-on-year, a slowdown of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, with infrastructure investment growing by 3.2% [2] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year from January to July, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [2] Policy and Future Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts, focusing on expanding domestic demand and improving living standards [3][4] - Key initiatives include promoting service consumption, enhancing personal consumption loan policies, and stimulating private investment through infrastructure projects [3][5] - The meeting also highlighted the importance of deepening reforms and managing risks in key areas, particularly in local government debt and real estate markets [4][5]

Core Insights - The new employment forms based on digital economy and artificial intelligence are becoming a significant part of China's employment landscape, with a focus on promoting flexible employment while ensuring labor rights protection during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [3][4]. Group 1: Characteristics of Flexible Employment and New Employment Forms - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, flexible employment and new employment forms are expected to expand significantly, becoming a major growth point for employment [4]. - The development of the digital economy will create more new business models and opportunities for flexible employment, with "one-person armies" emerging as a new entrepreneurial model [4][5]. - The rise of digital gig platforms is enhancing labor matching efficiency, with new employment forms primarily seen in sectors like ride-hailing, food delivery, e-commerce, and short video creation [4][5]. Group 2: Improvement in Employment Quality - The quality of flexible employment is continuously improving, moving away from being associated solely with low-end jobs [5]. - Digital platforms are enhancing standardization, management, and transparency in flexible employment, leading to increased income levels for some flexible workers, surpassing traditional employment [5][6]. - The proliferation of flexible employment is encouraging continuous learning and skill enhancement among workers, contributing to human capital accumulation and improved employment quality [5][6]. Group 3: Challenges in Labor Rights Protection - There are significant shortcomings in the protection of rights for flexible employment and new employment form workers, primarily due to ambiguous legal relationships and unclear definitions of "incomplete labor relationships" [6][7]. - The high costs associated with social insurance for flexible workers deter participation, and tax issues related to income and labor remuneration remain problematic for platform companies [6][7]. - The mechanisms for handling labor disputes are inadequate, leading to high costs and long durations for workers seeking to protect their rights [6][7]. Group 4: Recommendations for Rights Protection - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period should focus on establishing a comprehensive labor rights protection system tailored to new employment forms, ensuring legal coverage for all workers [7][8]. - There is a need for policies that better align with the characteristics of new employment methods and income patterns, as well as mechanisms for stable income growth [7][8]. - Enhancing skills training support and optimizing platform governance mechanisms are essential to improve the working environment for flexible employment [8][9].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to July 2024, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,663 billion yuan, with a comparable growth of approximately 1.2% after excluding special factors [1][2] - National general public budget expenditure for the same period was 155,463 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1][3] Revenue Analysis - The overall national general public budget revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, but when adjusted for special factors, it showed a growth of 1.2% [2] - Tax revenue was impacted by various factors, with a 5.4% decline in total tax revenue. Notably, domestic value-added tax fell by 5.2%, while domestic consumption tax increased by 5.5% due to growth in sales of refined oil, cigarettes, and alcohol [2] - Export tax rebates amounted to 12,824 billion yuan, an increase of 1,632 billion yuan year-on-year, supporting foreign trade growth [2] Expenditure Analysis - National general public budget expenditure increased by 2.5% year-on-year, with significant growth in social security and employment (4.3%), agriculture, forestry, and water (8.2%), and urban and rural community spending (7.2%) [3] - The Ministry of Finance anticipates stable growth in public budget expenditure in the coming months, supported by macroeconomic policies and the gradual fading of special factors [3] Local Government Debt Management - From January to July, local governments issued 17,749 billion yuan in new special bonds, primarily for infrastructure projects in key areas identified by the central government [4] - The Ministry of Finance is working with relevant departments to accelerate the issuance and utilization of special bonds to enhance investment efficiency and support economic development [4] - Overall, local government debt risks are considered manageable, with a gradual reduction in hidden debt levels [5]

Group 1 - The current economic growth faces challenges, and fiscal policy will focus on more proactive measures to support key areas, including optimizing expenditure structure and enhancing social welfare [1] - In the first half of the year, social security and employment, education, and health expenditures grew by 9.2%, 5.9%, and 4.3% respectively, all exceeding the general public budget expenditure growth of 3.4% [2] - The issuance of local government bonds reached 2.6 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, supporting major project construction [3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance plans to accelerate the issuance and utilization of government bonds, with a focus on special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to stabilize investment and promote growth [3] - By the end of July, 2.78 trillion yuan of new special bonds had been issued, accounting for 63% of the annual quota, indicating a faster-than-usual issuance pace [3] - The Ministry of Finance aims to complete the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to ensure the implementation of key projects [3] Group 3 - The government is actively working on replacing local government hidden debts, with 1.8 trillion yuan of the 2 trillion yuan replacement bonds for 2025 already issued by June [4] - There is a strong regulatory stance against new hidden debts, with a focus on the orderly exit of local financing platforms to mitigate systemic risks [4][5] - The government emphasizes a market-oriented transformation of financing platforms, gradually pushing for their exit from local government financing roles [5]

1. Market Index Performance - **Global Stock Indexes**: On July 31, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index closed at 44,461.28, down 0.385% from the previous day; the Nasdaq Index closed at 21,129.67, up 0.149%; the S&P 500 closed at 6,362.90, down 0.125%; the Hang Seng Index closed at 25,176.93, down 1.362% [2]. - **SHIBOR and Dollar Index**: The SHIBOR overnight rate was 1.32, down 3.587% from the previous day; the dollar index was 99.79, down 0.179%. The dollar - to - RMB (CFETS) exchange rate remained unchanged [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: COMEX gold rose 0.078% to 3,327.90; COMEX silver fell 3.152% to 37.18; LME copper fell 0.745% to 9,730.00; NYMEX crude oil rose 1.516% to 70.30. Domestic metals, chemicals, and agricultural products also showed various price changes [2][3][5]. 2. Macro - economic News - **Policy Decisions**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan. The government will implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, support key areas, and resolve local government debt risks [8]. - **Subsidy Policy**: The state plans to allocate about 90 billion yuan for childcare subsidies in 2025, and localities will open application channels by August 31 [8]. - **Industry Policies**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will control new capacity in copper smelting and alumina, and promote the exit of backward capacity in some sectors [10]. 3. Morning Views on Major Commodities 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is expected to have a bullish and volatile short - term trend but will maintain a downward long - term trend, with a current pattern of weak supply and demand [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats market has light trading volume and stable basis. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to increase, and Malaysia's palm oil exports are also rising [12]. - **Sugar**: The sugar market is in an internal - strong and external - weak situation. With the arrival of processed sugar in August, the spot market may face pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Corn**: The corn market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to operate within the range of 2,300 - 2,320 yuan/ton [12]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are both weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, with attention to the 13,350 - yuan support level [13]. - **Hogs**: The hog market is in a state of oversupply. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [13]. - **Eggs**: After this round of price adjustment, the egg spot price is expected to be supported by Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. The futures market is adjusting the basis by following the spot price decline [14]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong is expected to fluctuate slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [16]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is stable. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to operate within the range of 1,720 - 1,800 yuan/ton [16][18]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Copper prices may face pressure if the 50% tariff is imposed. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [18]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals of alumina are in a surplus situation. The futures price may be strong, but it is necessary to be vigilant about macro - sentiment [18]. - **Steel Products**: The spot market for steel products has weak trading volume. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be supported at certain levels [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferroalloys are currently driven by macro - expectations. It is recommended to operate cautiously [18][19]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke markets are fluctuating and under pressure. The fifth round of coke price increase has started, but steel mills have not responded [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see and short on rallies [19]. 3.4 Options and Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: On July 30, A - share indexes showed mixed performance. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures and options changed, and the implied volatility of some options decreased. Trend investors can focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can buy straddles [19][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 30, the main iron ore futures contract 2509 showed a weakening trend, closing at 789.0 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The current price trend is mainly affected by macro - sentiment. After the Politburo's expectations are realized, the speculation sentiment may fade, and the Sino - US negotiation setbacks put pressure on the upper limit of ore prices. However, the high production of steel mills provides continuous support. Therefore, the ore price is expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the results of the third round of Sino - US negotiations [7][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On July 30, the main iron ore futures 2509 contract opened higher and then oscillated downward, closing at 789.0 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The prices, trading volumes, and positions of other black - series futures contracts such as RB2510, HC2510, and SS2509 also had corresponding changes [7][5]. - The spot market: On July 30, the main iron ore outer - market quotes decreased by 0.5 - 1 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 5 - 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract continued to decline, and the daily MACD indicator formed a death cross [9]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: The Politburo meeting on July 30 mentioned deepening reforms, promoting the construction of a unified national market, and optimizing market competition order. The Sino - US third - round negotiation encountered setbacks, raising market risk - aversion sentiment [10][11]. - Fundamentals: The Australian iron ore shipments rebounded last week, and Brazilian shipments were basically the same as the previous week. The overall shipments recovered after the seasonal decline. The current weekly shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil are at a medium level of about 27 million tons. The arrivals last week dropped to a relatively low level of 22.405 million tons. Considering the shipping time, the arrivals may oscillate at this level until mid - August and then rise again. On the demand side, the downstream steel demand is in a seasonal decline, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains above 2.4 million tons. The profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased again, and steel enterprises maintain high production, which is expected to slow down the production - cut process and support the ore price [11]. 3.2 Industry News - On July 23, the CPC Central Committee held a symposium for non - Communist Party personages, emphasizing the need to do a good job in the second - half economic work, including stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and boosting consumption [13]. - On July 30, the China Coking Industry Association's Market Committee held a meeting. Due to factors such as the sharp rise in coal prices, high demand for coke from steel mills, and the lag in coke price increases, the participating enterprises decided to raise the coke price starting from July 31. The prices of tamping wet - quenched coke, tamping dry - quenched coke, and top - charged coke were increased by 50 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, and 75 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - The Politburo meeting on July 30 decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October, mainly to discuss the work report and the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan. The meeting also analyzed the economic situation and deployed the second - half economic work, including deepening reforms, expanding opening - up, and preventing and resolving risks [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the September contract, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volume at main ports, the inventory available days of steel mills, and other data [20][23][27].

Core Insights - The audit report reveals significant issues regarding tax collection and local government debt, highlighting the ongoing challenges in maintaining a stable business environment and supporting the private economy [1][4]. Tax Collection Issues - The audit identified a total of 889.97 billion yuan in "over-collection" of taxes and fees, with 331.89 billion yuan collected from 631 enterprises through excessive levies on land occupation tax, value-added tax, and penalties across 28 provinces [4]. - Additionally, local governments collected 558.08 billion yuan in land transfer income through improper means, such as converting free land allocations into paid ones [4]. Local Government Debt Risks - The report emphasizes the ongoing risks associated with local government debt, noting that some regions have illegally increased hidden debts since March 2023, primarily for government investments and debt repayments [4][8]. - Specifically, five regions have added 59.09 billion yuan in hidden debts through state-owned enterprises financing construction projects, with commitments for repayment from fiscal funds [4]. Financing Platforms and Hidden Debt - Eleven regions and 15 financing platforms have raised 1.5 billion yuan in hidden debt through non-standard financial products and loans, affecting over 1,600 individuals and 45 public welfare organizations [5]. - For instance, a financing platform in Fujian has borrowed 15.02 billion yuan from local charitable organizations, some of which is allocated for government investment projects, contributing to hidden debt [5]. Misallocation of Funds - The report indicates that funds have been misallocated towards local "three guarantees" expenditures (basic livelihood, salaries, and operational costs) and repaying local debts [6][7]. - The Ministry of Finance has emphasized the importance of ensuring adequate funding for these guarantees, especially at the county level, amidst pressures from declining fiscal revenues and rising debt burdens [7]. Recommendations for Debt Management - The audit suggests enhancing government debt management, including better coordination of long-term special bonds and stricter oversight of local special bonds to mitigate risks associated with hidden debts [8]. - The audit authority has initiated corrective measures and will continue to monitor the situation, with a report on the comprehensive rectification expected by the end of the year [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the accelerated issuance of local government bonds in China during the first half of the year, with a total issuance of approximately 5.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 57% [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Overview - In the first half of the year, local government bonds were issued at a rapid pace, with new bonds accounting for approximately 2.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43%, while refinancing bonds reached about 2.9 trillion yuan, growing by approximately 73% [1][2]. - More than half of the funds from local government bonds were used for refinancing old debts, which alleviated current fiscal pressures and allowed local governments to focus more on development and public welfare [2]. Group 2: Fund Allocation and Project Focus - The newly issued special bonds, totaling around 2.2 trillion yuan, were primarily directed towards infrastructure and public welfare projects, with significant allocations to municipal and industrial park infrastructure (28%), transportation projects (19%), and land reserve projects (11%) [3]. - The government has allowed special bonds to be used for land reserve projects to stabilize the real estate market, leading to increased funding in this area [3]. Group 3: Debt Management and Financial Health - The average issuance term of local government bonds has extended to 16.4 years, with an average interest rate of 1.95%, lower than the previous year's rate of 2.29%, which helps reduce financing costs [4]. - As of May 2025, the total local government debt stood at 51.25 trillion yuan, remaining within the limit of 57.99 trillion yuan, indicating that debt risks are generally manageable [4]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to expedite the issuance of long-term special bonds to support economic stability and growth, with expectations for increased issuance in the third quarter [4].