2025.11. 20 本文字数：2955，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 化解地方政府债务风险是"十五五"时期财政一大重点工作，近年来地方加快化解地方政府隐性债务风 险，地方债务风险得到大幅缓释，但相关隐患依然值得注意。 11月20日，安徽省财政厅课题组在《中国财政》发表了《新形势下防范化解财政有关风险问题研 究》，该文围绕安徽省基层"三保"、地方政府债务、社保基金三个维度开展潜在风险分析研究，并给 出成因及对策。 文章称，安徽地方政府债务风险总体可控但隐患积聚，如债务增速过快，未来偿债承压等，未来要防 治并举妥善化解政府债务风险，比如统筹整合财政资金、国企盈余、社会资本探索设立省级平准基 金，支持到期债务"过桥"。分类化解平台公司存量债务，隐性债务置换额度分配与转型退出挂钩等。 安徽债务潜在问题一览 在安徽省地方政府债务风险方面，上述文章指出，当地政府债务风险总体可控但隐患积聚。截至 2024年底，全省全口径负债率显著低于全国平均水平、债务率居全国中等水平，但存在一些潜在问 题。其中首要问题是债务增速过快。 而专项债务偿债资金来源，主要由对应项目的政府性基金收入或专项收入、发行专项债券来偿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the role of proactive fiscal policy in promoting economic growth, structural adjustment, and risk prevention while ensuring fiscal sustainability [1][3]. Fiscal Policy and Economic Development - Fiscal policy will focus on expanding domestic demand, supporting high-level technological self-reliance, and improving people's livelihoods during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [2][4]. - The government aims to enhance fiscal sustainability while maintaining an active fiscal stance, balancing development and security, efficiency and equity, and short-term and long-term goals [1][3]. Major Tasks and Strategic Goals - Key tasks include building a modern industrial system, accelerating technological self-reliance, optimizing productivity layout, and promoting green transformation [3][4]. - Significant public investment is required for these tasks, which often have strong externalities and long return cycles, necessitating government leadership [3]. Technological Modernization and Support - The plan highlights the importance of fiscal support for technological modernization, focusing on basic research and key core technology breakthroughs [4]. - The strategy includes using various fiscal tools to optimize traditional industries and foster emerging sectors [4][5]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The emphasis is on shifting fiscal support from supply-side policies to demand-side initiatives, enhancing social welfare for households [4][5]. - The goal is to create a dynamic balance where new demand leads to new supply and vice versa, supporting a new development pattern [5]. Fiscal Sustainability and Taxation - The plan calls for enhancing fiscal sustainability through structural adjustments in tax policies, including improving local tax systems and maintaining reasonable macro tax burdens [7][8]. - Experts suggest optimizing existing tax reduction policies for precision and efficiency, particularly for technology innovation and small enterprises [7]. Local Government Debt Management - The government aims to prevent and mitigate local government debt risks by implementing a comprehensive debt management strategy and ensuring no new hidden debts are created [8]. - A unified long-term regulatory system for local government debt is to be established, with strict accountability for violations [8].

Report Summary - The investment rating of the industry is not mentioned in the report [4] - The report focuses on the economic, fiscal, and debt situations of Sichuan Province and its prefecture - level cities, as well as the conditions of local urban investment enterprises. It points out that Sichuan has obvious location and resource advantages, with its economy growing steadily and the government actively addressing debt issues. However, there are still challenges such as uneven regional development and debt pressure [4][5][6] Group 1: Sichuan Province's Economic and Fiscal Strength Economic Development - Sichuan has significant location and resource advantages, with well - developed land and air transportation. Its economic aggregate ranks high in China, but the urbanization level is relatively low, and the per - capita GDP is in the middle - lower range. The tertiary industry is the main driving force for economic growth [7][10][11] - The construction of the Chengdu - Chongqing Economic Circle is advancing, with major projects having a total investment of over 12 trillion yuan. In 2025, the planned investment is about 3.7 trillion yuan, and as of August 2025, the investment completion rate is 75.29% [12][14] - Sichuan has introduced a series of policies in 2025 to boost consumption, promote industrial transformation and upgrading, and improve economic recovery [14][15] Fiscal Strength and Debt - Sichuan's general public budget revenue ranks 7th in China, but the fiscal self - sufficiency rate is low. The government - funded revenue has decreased due to the real estate market, while the superior subsidy revenue ranks first in the country, supporting the comprehensive fiscal strength. The comprehensive fiscal strength ranks 4th in China [17][18][21] - By the end of 2024, Sichuan's government debt balance was 2.40289 trillion yuan, with a debt ratio of 143.87% and a debt - to - GDP ratio of 37.14%. The government has been actively reducing debt through measures such as obtaining replacement bonds, introducing incentive mechanisms, and strengthening debt management since 2024 [24][26][27] Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Strength of Sichuan's Prefecture - level Cities Economic Development - The economic development of Sichuan's prefecture - level cities is uneven. The Chengdu Plain Economic Zone and the Southern Sichuan Economic Zone have better industrial bases. Chengdu has far stronger economic strength than other cities, and Panzhihua has the highest per - capita GDP in the province [28][29][33] Fiscal Revenue - In 2024, most prefecture - level cities' general public budget revenues increased, with growth rates concentrated between 2% - 10%. The government - funded revenues of most cities decreased, and the superior subsidy revenue contributed significantly to the comprehensive fiscal strength [37][38][39] Debt - The government debt balances of all prefecture - level cities have increased, and the debt ratios have generally risen. Zigong, Suining, Bazhong, and Neijiang have relatively high debt ratios. All cities are following Sichuan's overall debt - reduction strategy [48][49] Group 3: Sichuan's Urban Investment Enterprises Overview - As of October 22, 2025, there are 218 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Sichuan. Most of them are at the district - county level, and the credit ratings are mainly AA. Chengdu has the largest number of such enterprises [52] Bond Issuance - In 2024, the number and scale of bond issuances by Sichuan's urban investment enterprises decreased slightly. From 2024 to September 2025, most cities' urban investment enterprises had a net outflow of bond financing, and the outstanding bond balances decreased [54][55][57] Debt - paying Ability - The total debt of most urban investment enterprises has increased, with the debt structure mainly composed of bank financing and bond financing. The overall debt - to - capital ratio has slightly increased, and the cash - to - short - term debt ratio has decreased. Suining's urban investment enterprises face significant short - term debt - paying pressure [60][61][65] Support from Fiscal Revenue - Except for Liangshan and Ya'an, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive fiscal revenue in other cities exceeds 200%, with Chengdu exceeding 500% [73]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Hunan Province has a significant geographical position and obvious resource endowment advantages. In 2024, its economic aggregate was in the upper - middle level in the country, with a "tertiary - secondary - primary" economic development pattern, but the proportion of the tertiary industry was lower than the national average. The fixed - asset investment growth rate turned positive. The general public budget revenue was at a medium level, with a low fiscal self - sufficiency rate and high debt ratio [4][5]. - The province has implemented multiple measures to address implicit debt, such as debt replacement and platform company transformation. After the implementation of debt - resolution policies, the spread of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Hunan has significantly narrowed, and the debt - resolution work in Xiangtan has achieved phased results [4][23]. - There are obvious disparities in the economic and fiscal strength among prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Hunan. Changsha, the provincial capital, has far higher economic and fiscal levels than other regions. In 2024, the overall tax revenue contribution of prefecture - level cities (prefectures) was relatively high, but most of them saw a significant decline in government - funded revenue, and the contribution of superior subsidy revenue to comprehensive financial resources was high. The government debt balance of all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) increased at the end of 2024, and the debt ratio rose [4]. - There are many bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Hunan, mainly distributed in the Changzhutan and northern Hunan regions. In 2024, the bonds of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) showed net repayment. Since 2025, the short - term solvency indicators of most bond - issuing urban investment enterprises have generally improved, but the overall short - term liquidity pressure remains high [4]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory I. Hunan's Economic and Fiscal Strength 1. Regional Characteristics and Economic Development in Hunan - Hunan has a prominent geographical advantage, with a developed transportation system and rich resource endowment. In 2024, its economic aggregate was in the upper - middle level in the country, with a per - capita GDP in the middle level. The fixed - asset investment growth rate turned positive. With the implementation of national strategies, Hunan's economic strength is expected to further increase [5][7]. - The population of Hunan is large, but the urbanization rate is lower than the national average. In 2024, the GDP growth rate was 4.8%, lower than the national average, and the per - capita GDP was 81,200 yuan, ranking 14th in the country [7]. - Hunan presents a "tertiary - secondary - primary" economic development pattern, but the proportion of the tertiary industry is lower than the national average. The province is strengthening its agricultural base, promoting high - tech industries, and optimizing the industrial structure [9][11]. - Thanks to the rapid growth of industrial investment and the accelerated recovery of infrastructure investment, the fixed - asset investment growth rate in Hunan turned positive in 2024. Industrial investment increased by 9.5%, infrastructure investment increased by 5.9%, and real - estate development investment decreased by 13.0% [12]. - National strategies and policies support Hunan's development. Central government transfer payments and special funds also provide assistance to the province [14][17]. 2. Hunan's Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - In 2024, Hunan's general public budget revenue increased year - on - year, ranking in the middle in the country. The tax revenue contribution was acceptable, but the fiscal self - sufficiency rate was low. The government - funded revenue decreased, and the superior subsidy revenue contributed significantly to the local comprehensive financial resources. The government debt ratio and liability ratio ranked in the middle and the back respectively in the country [19][20]. 3. Hunan's Debt Resolution - Hunan has implemented multiple measures to address implicit debt, including debt replacement, platform company transformation, and the exploration of debt - resolution mechanisms. The spread of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises has significantly narrowed, and the debt - resolution work in Xiangtan has achieved phased results [23][27]. II. Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Hunan 1. Economic Strength of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Hunan - There are large disparities in the economic strength among prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Hunan. Changsha, as the provincial capital, has obvious advantages. The province is divided into four regions with different industrial development layouts [29][34]. - In 2024, Changsha was the only city with a GDP exceeding one trillion yuan, accounting for 28.68% of the provincial total. The GDP growth rates of most cities except some were over 5.00%. Changsha had the highest per - capita GDP, while Xiangxi had the lowest [37][38]. 2. Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Hunan - The fiscal strength of prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Hunan continues to show a differentiated pattern. Changsha has far higher comprehensive fiscal strength than other cities. The overall tax revenue contribution is relatively high, but most cities saw a significant decline in government - funded revenue in 2024. The superior subsidy revenue contributes significantly to the comprehensive financial resources of most cities [41][48]. - At the end of 2024, the government debt balance of all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) increased, and the debt ratio rose. Xiangtan had the highest debt ratio, and Zhangjiajie, Zhuzhou, Changde, Loudi, and Chenzhou also had relatively high debt ratios [49][50]. III. Solvency of Urban Investment Enterprises in Hunan 1. Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - There are many bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Hunan, mainly distributed in the Changzhutan and northern Hunan regions, with the majority of the main body levels being AA. Since 2024, the main body credit levels of 4 urban investment enterprises have been upgraded [53][55]. 2. Bond - issuing Situation of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the bond - issuing scale of urban investment enterprises in Hunan decreased year - on - year. The bond - issuing enterprises were concentrated in Changsha, Changde, and Zhuzhou, with the main body levels mainly being AA+. The bonds of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) showed net repayment in 2024, and the net financing scale was still negative in the first half of 2025 [56][57]. 3. Solvency Analysis of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of 2024, the growth rate of the total debt scale of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Hunan decreased year - on - year and rebounded in the first half of 2025. Changsha accounted for the highest proportion of the total debt scale. Since 2025, the short - term solvency indicators of most bond - issuing urban investment enterprises have generally improved, but the overall short - term liquidity pressure remains high, and there is a large bond concentration payment pressure in 2026 [60][63]. 4. Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue for the Debt of Bond - issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - The ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to "comprehensive financial resources" in most prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Hunan is between 200% and 700%. Xiangtan and Zhuzhou are relatively high in the province, followed by Changde, Changsha, and Yueyang, while Yongzhou and Xiangxi are relatively low [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Henan Province has a high - level economic development with a leading GDP in China, but a relatively low per - capita GDP and urbanization rate. The province has taken measures to prevent and resolve government debt risks, and has completed the implicit debt resolution plan for seven consecutive years since 2018 [4]. - There is a high degree of differentiation in the development of cities in Henan. Zhengzhou has an absolute advantage in economic and fiscal strength, and Luoyang also maintains a leading position. Some cities have relatively high government debt ratios and need to pay attention to the credit risks of urban investment enterprises [4]. - Most of Henan's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises still face significant short - term debt repayment pressure, and the bond maturity scale of provincial - level, Zhengzhou, and Luoyang urban investment enterprises in 2026 is large. Attention should be paid to the credit risks of urban investment enterprises with relatively heavy local government debt burdens, low debt - repayment and support capabilities, and insufficient refinancing capabilities [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Henan's Economic and Fiscal Strength 3.1.1 Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Henan is located in the central - eastern part of China, with superior transportation location and prominent resource endowment. It has a high - level economic development, a leading GDP, a middle - lower per - capita GDP, and a low urbanization rate. The industrial structure is "tertiary - secondary - primary", and strategic opportunities such as the construction of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration help the regional development [5]. - Henan has a large population, with a permanent population of 97.85 million in 2024, ranking third in China. The urbanization rate is 59.22%, lower than the national average, with large room for development [9]. - In 2024, Henan's GDP was 6.358999 trillion yuan, ranking sixth in China, with a growth rate of 5.1%. The per - capita GDP was 64,900 yuan, lower than the national level. The industrial and service industries have good development momentum, and investment in fixed assets and industry has increased [10][14][15]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Strength and Government Debt - In 2024, Henan's general public budget revenue decreased slightly year - on - year, ranking in the upper - middle level in China. The fiscal self - sufficiency rate is low, and the government - funded revenue continued to decline. The provincial government debt ratio and liability ratio are in the middle in China, but the liability level is rising rapidly [23]. - In 2024, Henan's local government debt ratio and liability ratio were 169.48% and 33.51% respectively, ranking 15th and 10th in China, up 26.36 and 3.25 percentage points from the end of the previous year [24]. 3.2 Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefecture - Level Cities in Henan 3.2.1 Economic Strength of Prefecture - Level Cities - There is a high degree of imbalance in the development of cities in Henan. Zhengzhou is the only city with a GDP of over one trillion yuan, and Luoyang and Nanyang also have obvious leading advantages. Most cities have a lower urbanization rate than the national average [26]. - The economic development levels of cities in Henan are highly differentiated, showing a ladder - like distribution. In 2024, most cities' GDP rankings remained the same as in 2023. In terms of per - capita GDP, Zhengzhou and Jiyuan lead, and Zhoukou ranks last. In terms of urbanization rate, Zhengzhou has the highest level [35][36]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Strength and Government Debt of Prefecture - Level Cities - The fiscal strength of cities in Henan is highly differentiated. Zhengzhou leads in terms of fiscal revenue scale and fiscal self - sufficiency rate. In 2024, the general public budget revenue of some cities fluctuated, and more than half of the cities' government - funded revenue decreased. The superior subsidy income contributes significantly to the comprehensive financial resources [38]. - In 2024, the government debt balance of all cities in Henan increased, with Zhengzhou having the largest balance. The government debt ratio and liability ratio of all cities increased, and the debt burden is relatively heavy. Shangqiu, Puyang, Xuchang, and Zhoukou had a relatively large increase in the government debt ratio [48][49]. 3.2.3 Debt Resolution - Henan has taken various measures to prevent and resolve government debt risks, and the overall debt risk is controllable. It has optimized the debt structure and reduced the risk level. Since 2024, the spread of urban investment bonds in Henan has shown a downward trend [50][53]. 3.3 Debt Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Henan 3.3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - There are bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Henan at the provincial level and in 18 cities. The administrative levels of these enterprises are mainly at the prefecture - level and district - county levels, and they are mainly distributed in Zhengzhou and its surrounding cities. The credit levels of Zhengzhou's urban investment enterprises are relatively high [55]. - As of the end of September 2025, there were 148 bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Henan, with a total balance of outstanding bonds of 768.689 billion yuan. High - credit - level enterprises are mainly concentrated at the provincial level and in Zhengzhou, and AA - level enterprises account for the highest proportion [56][57]. 3.3.2 Bond Issuance - In 2024, the number of bonds issued by Henan's urban investment enterprises decreased year - on - year, while the scale increased. Most cities maintained a net inflow of bond financing. From January to September 2025, the bond issuance rhythm slowed down, and regional differentiation intensified [63]. 3.3.3 Debt Repayment Ability Analysis - At the end of 2024, most of Henan's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises faced significant short - term debt repayment pressure, and the bond maturity scale of provincial - level, Zhengzhou, and Luoyang urban investment enterprises in 2026 is large. The debt burden of some cities' urban investment enterprises is relatively heavy [68][71]. 3.3.4 Support and Guarantee Ability of Local Fiscal Revenue for Urban Investment Enterprises' Debt - At the end of 2024, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive financial resources in Henan cities was at least about 220.15%. Zhengzhou had the highest ratio, and the support and guarantee ability of some cities was under pressure [76].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in driving economic growth and structural optimization during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, highlighting the need for effective responses to complex changes in the development environment [2]. Group 1: Domestic Demand Expansion - The government aims to fully expand domestic demand and support the construction of a strong domestic market by increasing tax, social security, and transfer payments to boost residents' income and optimize income distribution [3]. - Policies such as fiscal subsidies and loan interest discounts will be utilized to cultivate new consumption growth points and create new consumption scenarios [3]. - The use of special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds will be optimized to encourage private capital participation in major project construction, thereby expanding effective investment [3]. Group 2: Technological Independence - The focus will be on supporting high-level technological self-reliance and accelerating the development of new productive forces by increasing investment in technology, particularly in basic and applied research [4]. - The government will enhance the efficiency of technology innovation investments and promote the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [4]. Group 3: Improving Livelihoods - The government will prioritize employment, support enterprises in maintaining and expanding jobs, and address employment issues for key groups [4]. - There will be efforts to improve education quality, strengthen social security networks, and enhance public health services [4]. Group 4: Urban-Rural Integration - The strategy includes promoting urban-rural integration and expanding modernization development space through diverse investment mechanisms and comprehensive rural revitalization [5]. - Support will be provided for high-standard farmland construction and the implementation of compensation mechanisms for grain production and sales [5]. Group 5: Fiscal Management and Reform - The government will deepen reforms and strengthen supervision to enhance fiscal governance effectiveness, including optimizing tax structures and improving the fiscal relationship between central and local governments [5]. - A focus will be placed on preventing and resolving local government debt risks, with strict measures against the creation of new hidden debts [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in driving economic growth and structural optimization during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, highlighting the need for effective responses to complex changes in the development environment [1] Group 1: Expansion of Domestic Demand - The government aims to fully expand domestic demand and support the construction of a strong domestic market by increasing residents' income and optimizing income distribution [2] - Policies such as fiscal subsidies and loan interest discounts will be utilized to cultivate new consumption growth points and create new consumption scenarios [2] - The use of special bonds and long-term special government bonds will be optimized to encourage private capital participation in major project construction [2] Group 2: Technological Independence and Innovation - The focus is on supporting high-level technological self-reliance and accelerating the development of new productive forces by increasing investment in technology [3] - The government will enhance the allocation and management of central fiscal science and technology funds to improve the effectiveness of innovation investments [3] - Traditional industries will be optimized while new and future industries are cultivated to promote deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [3] Group 3: Improvement of People's Livelihood - The government prioritizes employment and supports enterprises in stabilizing and expanding jobs, addressing employment issues for key groups [4] - There will be an emphasis on enhancing social security networks and improving public health service systems [4] - Policies will be implemented to optimize the supply of elderly care and childcare services, contributing to overall social welfare [4] Group 4: Urban-Rural Integration and Regional Development - The government will promote urban-rural integration and expand modernization development space by supporting rural revitalization and enhancing agricultural productivity [5] - Investment in rural infrastructure and public services will be prioritized to create livable and workable rural areas [5] - The strategy includes implementing regional coordinated development to optimize economic development space [5] Group 5: Fiscal Management and Debt Risk Prevention - The government aims to enhance fiscal governance effectiveness through reforms and strengthened supervision [6] - A focus on optimizing the tax structure and improving the fiscal relationship between central and local governments will be pursued [6] - Measures will be taken to prevent and resolve local government debt risks, including strict regulations against the creation of new hidden debts [6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese economy, focusing on key policies set forth during the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, as well as implications for the bond market and various sectors within the economy. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Emphasis on Core Industries** China aims to strengthen its core industries, including manufacturing, quality, internet, aerospace, and transportation, to counter global de-globalization risks [3][4] 2. **Technological Development as a Priority** Technological advancement is identified as a crucial driver of new productive forces, with the new economy contributing approximately 17-18% to GDP. Future efforts will focus on original innovation and tackling key core technologies [3][4] 3. **Expansion of Domestic Demand** The strategy to expand domestic demand is highlighted, with an emphasis on integrating material and human investments to stimulate consumption and investment. Special government bonds may be used to support consumption subsidies [3][4] 4. **Real Estate Sector Focus** For the first time, the real estate sector is addressed in the context of people's livelihoods, with a push for high-quality development that returns to its residential nature. This indicates a policy shift to mitigate the economic drag from the real estate sector [3][4] 5. **Local Government Debt Management** The need to manage local government debt risks is reiterated, with expectations for new debt limits to be issued early next year. The government may increase bond issuance and align monetary policy with potential rate cuts [4][5] 6. **Market Liquidity and Interest Rates** The People's Bank of China may restart net purchases of government bonds to enhance market liquidity, with expectations for the effective repurchase rate to decrease from the current range of 1.8-1.85% to 1.75-1.8% [4][5] 7. **Impact of U.S.-China Trade Relations** Ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and their outcomes are expected to influence market sentiment and the bond market's direction [4][8] 8. **Performance of Key Sectors** The third-quarter earnings reports indicate strong performance in sectors such as communication equipment, electronic semiconductors, chemicals, and industrial metals, particularly in AI computing and consumer electronics [11] 9. **Foreign Capital Inflows** Recent weeks have seen strong foreign capital inflows into the A-share market, with October's inflow reaching a multi-year high. In contrast, foreign interest in Hong Kong stocks remains weaker [12] 10. **New vs. Old Economic Drivers** The transition from old to new economic drivers is accelerating, with significant growth in new productive forces, particularly in computing power and cloud computing, which have seen increases of around 1.5 times [13] 11. **Investment Value of Anti-Overwork Policies** Anti-overwork policies are expected to impact various sectors, including photovoltaics and steel, presenting investment opportunities aligned with new productive forces [14] 12. **Consumer Sector Investment Logic** Investment in the consumer sector should focus on fundamental performance, with specific attention to sectors like light manufacturing, textiles, and agriculture, which have shown strong performance [15] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The potential for further monetary policy adjustments, including rate cuts, is anticipated in response to economic data releases [5] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to provide detailed policy guidance, particularly regarding modern industrial systems and domestic market strength [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Gansu Province has significant regional advantages and rich resources, with stable economic growth in 2024, but its economic aggregate and per capita GDP are still at the lower level in the country. The provincial government's debt scale is growing, but the debt ratio is at the middle level in the country due to the support of superior subsidy income. As one of the 12 key provinces for debt resolution, it continues to receive central debt - resolution policy support. The number of financing platforms has decreased significantly, and future work on platform clearance and transformation and upgrading will continue. - The economic and fiscal strengths of prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Gansu are significantly differentiated. Lanzhou, the provincial capital, leads in economic development and fiscal strength. By the end of 2024, the government debt balances of all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) increased, and most of their debt ratios and debt - to - GDP ratios rose. - The number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Gansu is small, mainly at the prefecture - level. In 2024, the net financing of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises was positive, and the regional financing environment improved. Since 2025, the short - term debt repayment pressure has increased. As of the end of 2024, the short - term debt repayment indicators of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises continued to weaken, and most of them still face great short - term debt repayment pressure. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Gansu Province's Economic and Fiscal Strength (1) Regional Characteristics and Economic Development of Gansu Province - Gansu has significant regional advantages, rich in land, mineral, medicinal, and cultural and tourism resources, with relatively developed land and air transportation. During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the planned transportation fixed - asset investment scale (excluding railways) is about 500 billion yuan. As of the end of 2024, the total highway mileage reached 159,300 kilometers, and the railway operating mileage was 5,960 kilometers. [5][6] - The province's population is multi - ethnic, and the urbanization rate is lower than the national average. As of the end of 2024, the permanent population was 24.5834 million, and the urbanization rate was 56.83%. [7] - In 2024, Gansu's GDP was 1,300.29 billion yuan, ranking 27th in the country, with a growth rate of 5.8%. The per capita GDP was 58,300 yuan, ranking 31st. From January to June 2025, the GDP was 646.88 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 6.3%, 1.0 percentage point higher than the national average. [8] - The industrial structure is relatively stable, with the tertiary industry as the main driving force for economic growth. The cultural and tourism industry has achieved "dual improvement in quantity and quality". In 2024, the tertiary industry added value was 694.48 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The province received 451 million domestic tourists, with domestic tourism revenue of 345.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 16.2% and 25.8% respectively. [11] - National strategies and policies, such as the Western Development Strategy, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Yellow River Basin Ecological Protection and High - quality Development Strategy, have promoted the economic development of Gansu. The province also actively undertakes industrial transfer from the east - central regions, and Lanzhou New Area has strong economic growth momentum. [12][13][14] - The central government provides transfer payments and special funds to support Gansu's development. In 2024, the superior subsidy income in the general public budget revenue was 345.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.02%. [15] (2) Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Gansu - In 2024, Gansu's general public budget revenue ranked at the lower level in the country, with relatively weak overall fiscal strength and low fiscal self - sufficiency rate, but the general public budget revenue was relatively stable. The government - funded income decreased year - on - year, and the superior subsidy income contributed significantly to the local comprehensive financial resources. The government's debt - to - GDP ratio ranked behind in the country, and the debt ratio was at the middle level in the country. [17] - As one of the 12 key provinces for debt resolution, Gansu continues to receive central debt - resolution policy support. In 2024 and from January to August 2025, it issued special refinancing bonds of 50.6 billion yuan and 44.3 billion yuan respectively. In 2024, it obtained a new government debt quota of 211.5 billion yuan, including a special debt quota of 194.4 billion yuan. [20] II. Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Gansu (1) Economic Strength of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Gansu - The economic strength of prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Gansu is significantly differentiated. Lanzhou, as the provincial capital, has a good industrial foundation and is significantly stronger than other cities. Jinchang and Jiayuguan have high per capita GDP due to rich resources. [21] - Gansu promotes the formation of an urban development pattern of "one belt, one corridor, one core, and two regional centers". Each city develops relevant industries based on its own resource advantages. Lanzhou provides core support for the provincial industrial development. [24] - In 2024, cities with GDP over 100 billion yuan were Lanzhou, Qingyang, and Jiuquan. Lanzhou had the highest GDP, accounting for 28.78% of the province's GDP. Jinchang, Jiuquan, and Jiayuguan had GDP growth rates over 7%. Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture had the lowest growth rate of 3.8%. [29] - Jinchang and Jiayuguan led in per capita GDP, while Linxia Hui Autonomous Prefecture ranked last. As of the end of 2024, Lanzhou had a concentrated population and a relatively high urbanization rate. Jinchang and Jiayuguan also had urbanization rates over 80%. [30] (2) Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Gansu - **Fiscal Revenue**: In 2024, the fiscal strength of prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Gansu continued to be differentiated. Lanzhou's comprehensive fiscal strength was much higher than others, with high tax revenue contribution. Most cities' government - funded income decreased significantly due to the land transfer market. The superior subsidy income was large and contributed highly to the comprehensive financial resources. [31] - **Debt Situation**: By the end of 2024, the government debt balances of all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) increased. Most cities' debt - to - GDP ratios and debt ratios rose. Lanzhou had the highest debt ratio of 234.50%. In 2024, Gansu reduced 94 financing platforms, a year - on - year decrease of 35.9%. The province will continue to resolve debt risks and promote the transformation and upgrading of financing platforms. [38][39][41] III. Debt Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Gansu (1) Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of September 8, 2025, there were 7 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Gansu, mainly at the prefecture - level, and the credit ratings were mainly AA. Since 2024, the credit ratings of these enterprises have not changed, but one enterprise's rating outlook remained negative. [45][46] (2) Bond Issuance of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the number and scale of bonds issued by urban investment enterprises in Gansu increased significantly, mainly concentrated in Lanzhou and Pingliang. The net financing was positive, and the regional financing environment improved. Since 2025, the short - term debt repayment pressure has increased. [47] (3) Debt Repayment Ability Analysis of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of 2024, the total debt balance of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Gansu was 129.023 billion yuan, with high regional concentration. Most enterprises still faced great short - term debt repayment pressure, and the short - term debt repayment indicators continued to weaken. The provincial and Lanzhou - level enterprises had a significant increase in net cash inflow from financing activities. [50] (4) Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue for the Debt of Bond - issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of 2024, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to "comprehensive financial resources" in bond - issuing prefecture - level cities in Gansu was between 100% and 350%, with Lanzhou having the highest ratio of 316.26%, indicating weak support and guarantee ability. [58]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing risks associated with local government special bonds in China, highlighting the challenges in debt management and the pressure on local governments to repay these debts due to declining revenues from land sales and project returns [3][5][12]. Summary by Sections Special Bonds and Debt Management - The issuance of special bonds has significantly increased, from approximately 0.1 trillion yuan in 2015 to 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025, with the balance of local government special debt reaching about 35.5 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 67% of total local government debt [5][12]. - Special bonds are intended for public welfare projects, but many projects have underperformed, leading to insufficient returns and increased repayment pressure on local governments [5][6]. Revenue Decline and Financial Pressure - Local government revenue from land sales peaked at about 9.4 trillion yuan in 2021 but has declined for three consecutive years, dropping to approximately 5.7 trillion yuan in 2024 [5][6]. - In the first eight months of 2024, local government revenue from land sales was 23.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% [5]. Audit Findings and Repayment Challenges - Audit reports from various provinces indicate that some local governments are struggling to repay interest on special bonds, with instances of misusing funds to cover these payments [6][7]. - In 2024, local government bond interest payments are projected to be 1.3542 trillion yuan, representing about 7.7% of total local government revenue [7][8]. Government Response and Policy Adjustments - The State Council has introduced measures to optimize the management of local government special bonds, including adjusting the allocation of bond quotas to ensure they align with local financial capabilities and project returns [12][14]. - The new policies aim to expand the sources of repayment funds and encourage local governments to establish reserve funds for bond repayment, thereby mitigating repayment risks [14]. Current Debt Status - As of July 2025, the total local government debt is approximately 52.8 trillion yuan, remaining within the approved debt limit of about 57.9 trillion yuan [14].