【文/观察者网 熊超然】"美元迎来半个多世纪以来（自1973年）最糟糕的开局。"2025年已经过去一 半，《纽约时报》当地时间6月30日报道指出，过去六个月，与美国主要贸易伙伴的一篮子货币相比， 美元贬值了超过10%。美元上一次在年初出现如此大幅度贬值是在1973年，当时美国遭遇了一场巨变， 结束了美元与黄金价格的挂钩。 报道毫不客气地指出，如今这一重大变化，皆拜特朗普咄咄逼人的关税政策和更加孤立主义的外交政 策"所赐"，导致世界秩序被重塑。特朗普的贸易政策、对于通货膨胀的担忧以及美国政府的债务增加， 一同给美元带来了压力，人们对美国处于全球金融体系中心地位的信心缓慢下滑，也在冲击着美元。 尽管特朗普目前已经放弃了其最极端的关税想法，美国股市和债市也从今年早些时候的损失中恢复一些 元气，但美元仍在继续下跌。这意味着，美国人出国旅行的成本更高，外国人在美国投资的吸引力下 降，从而削弱了政府试图借贷更多资金时的需求。另一方面，美元走软应该会利好美国出口商，并推高 进口成本，但由于关税威胁，这些典型的贸易效处于不断变化之中。 之后，特朗普出人意料地宣布了比任何经济学家、投资者或分析师预测的都要高得多的关税，这让从股 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is improving, especially in the black sector, due to the non - appearance of expected significant demand data decline, high - level hot metal production, rising overseas expectations for a July interest rate cut, and potential progress in Sino - US tariff issues [34]. - For most commodities, although short - term market sentiment may drive price rebounds, the fundamental outlook remains bearish, with concerns about demand weakening, supply overcapacity, and potential cost reductions [34][35][38]. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.59%, ChiNext up 1.35%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1517.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.1 billion yuan from the previous day. It is recommended to buy long IF index futures contracts on dips and there is no arbitrage recommendation [2][5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The yields of treasury bond futures fell on Monday. The economic data in June showed some improvement, and the central bank maintained liquidity injection. It is expected that interest rates will generally decline in the second half of the year, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6][7]. - **Precious Metals**: The prices of gold and silver rose. The US economic data was weak, increasing market expectations for the Fed's monetary policy to loosen. It is recommended to hold a long - term view on silver prices and expect gold prices to be weak. The operating range of Shanghai gold is 732 - 786 yuan/gram, and that of Shanghai silver is 8561 - 9075 yuan/kilogram [8][10][11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social and bonded area inventories decreased slightly. The copper price may continue to rise in the short term but the upward momentum may weaken, with the operating range of Shanghai copper at 79000 - 80500 yuan/ton and LME copper at 9750 - 10000 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price was relatively firm. The domestic inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory was at a low level. The aluminum price is expected to be volatile, with the operating range of the domestic main contract at 20300 - 20800 yuan/ton and LME aluminum at 2560 - 2620 US dollars/ton [14]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose slightly. The zinc ore supply is high, and the production of zinc ingots is expected to increase. A strike at a Peruvian zinc smelter may disturb the market sentiment. The LME Cash - 3S structure is rising, which supports the zinc price [15][16]. - **Lead**: The lead price was strong. The primary lead supply is high, the recycled lead supply is tight, and the demand from downstream battery enterprises is improving. The LME lead 7 - month contract has a high concentration of long - positions, and the Cash - 3S structure is strengthening. However, the weak domestic consumption may limit the increase of Shanghai lead [17]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuated. The nickel ore supply is expected to loosen, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the operating range of Shanghai nickel at 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel at 14500 - 16500 US dollars/ton [18]. - **Tin**: The tin price fell slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production of refined tin is expected to decrease. The terminal demand is weak. The tin price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 280000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31000 - 34000 US dollars/ton in the LME market [19][20]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price of carbonate lithium decreased. The production is at a historical high, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The inventory is increasing. It is recommended to be cautious about the upward space of the price, with the operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's 2509 contract at 61200 - 63000 yuan/ton [21]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price rose slightly. The production capacity is in surplus, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 at 2750 - 3100 yuan/ton [22]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price was weak. The supply is high, and the downstream demand has not improved substantially. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [23]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated slightly. The supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to the change of the premium of the futures over the spot [24]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated. The demand in the off - season is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively healthy level. It is necessary to pay attention to policy changes and demand recovery [26][27]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was volatile. The supply decreased, the demand was stable, and the inventory increased. The iron ore price is expected to be widely volatile in the short term [28][29]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price fell slightly, and the soda ash price was stable. The demand for glass is weak, and the supply of soda ash is in surplus. Both are expected to be weakly volatile [30]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell slightly. Although the short - term market sentiment may drive a rebound, the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to be cautious and wait for hedging opportunities [31][32][34]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rose slightly. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait for hedging opportunities during the rebound [36][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: NR and RU fluctuated. The bulls expect price increases due to potential production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see or use a neutral short - term trading strategy [40][41][42]. - **Crude Oil**: The WTI crude oil price fell, and the Brent crude oil price rose. The geopolitical risk has been released, and the oil price has reached a reasonable range. It is advisable to hold short positions but not to short further [43]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price fell. The inventory is low, and the demand is short - term stable. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Urea**: The urea price fell. The production decreased, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export is ongoing. The price is expected to be range - bound [45]. - **Styrene**: The styrene price is expected to be volatile and bearish. The cost is stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season [46]. - **PVC**: The PVC price fell. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the cost is expected to rise. The price is expected to be under pressure [48]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply and demand are both expected to weaken, and the inventory is expected to decrease slowly. It is recommended to short on rallies [49]. - **PTA**: The PTA price rose. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [50][51]. - **Para - xylene**: The PX price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [52]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE price is expected to be volatile. The supply pressure may ease, and the demand is in the off - season [53]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP price is expected to be bearish in July. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season [54]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The hog price rose. The short - term supply may be limited, but the demand is stable. It is recommended to go long on dips for near - term contracts and short on rallies for long - term contracts [56]. - **Eggs**: The egg price mostly fell. The supply and demand are balanced in the short term. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium term and reduce short positions or wait and see in the short term [57]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean price fluctuated. The domestic soybean meal price was slightly adjusted. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips at the lower end of the cost range [58][59]. - **Oils and Fats**: The domestic oil price fluctuated. The import data is weak, but there are some supportive factors. The oil price is expected to be volatile [60][61][62]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price was strong. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to decrease, but the import profit and chaotic futures spreads limit the upward space. The sugar price may enter a consolidation phase [63][64]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price fluctuated. The US cotton quality is poor, and the domestic supply and demand are stable. The cotton price is expected to continue to rebound, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation results [65][66].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The current economic situation shows marginal improvement, but external uncertainties persist, with prices remaining low, posing challenges [1][2] - The monetary policy has shifted from aggressive easing to an observation period, focusing on the transmission of institutional liabilities and financing support [2] Core Insights and Arguments - As of the end of June, institutions have significantly increased their positions, leading to a low volatility in bond yields, with a notable stock-bond effect [1][5] - Market expectations for the third quarter and the second half of the year are optimistic, with opportunities in July likely stemming from previous trading strategies [6][7] - The yield curve for government bonds has steepened, indicating a more relaxed liquidity environment, with potential for funding costs to fall below policy rates [7][8] - The main trading theme for the second half of the year will focus on institutional liabilities and yield recovery, which will take time to digest [9] Important but Overlooked Content - The performance of credit bonds has been weaker compared to interest rate bonds, particularly high-grade 3A credit bonds, which have seen significant adjustments [3][11] - The impact of ETF products on the ultra-long credit bond market is significant, improving liquidity and expected to continue expanding due to policy support [16] - The current yield on 10-year government bonds is approximately 1.6%, with a need for time to digest the decline in funding costs [9] - The performance of ultra-long credit strategies in June was strong, but sustainability is in question due to the unstable liability side of public funds [10][14] - The market for perpetual bonds (二勇) performed poorly in June, with a lack of expected gains despite market synchronization [13] Future Outlook - The trading rhythm for July 2025 is challenging to predict, with key dates being early July and the end of July, which may influence market sentiment [8] - The anticipated issuance of bonds in the second half of the year is expected to be lower, alleviating supply pressure [8] - The ultra-long credit strategy is expected to face challenges due to insufficient yield protection and poor volatility resistance, necessitating careful timing in operations [19]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his committee for their handling of interest rates, suggesting that they should feel ashamed for the current economic situation and claiming that the rates should be lowered to 1% or even lower [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Interest Rates** - Trump advocates for a reduction of interest rates to 1%, arguing that this would save the country trillions of dollars in interest costs [1] - He emphasizes that the current committee has failed in their responsibilities regarding interest rate management [1] - **Federal Reserve Accountability** - Trump holds Powell and the committee accountable for the economic conditions, stating that they are merely sitting idly while the situation worsens [1] - He describes their roles as prestigious yet suggests they are not fulfilling their duties effectively [1]

美国财长贝森特：美联储在2022年在利率方面犯下了"巨大"的错误。 ...

Group 1: Currency Market Overview - The Euro/USD continues to rise, supported by a weaker dollar, trading around 1.1720 [1] - The GBP/USD maintains its upward trend for the fourth consecutive trading day, trading above 1.3700 [1] - The AUD/USD rebounds after a previous decline, trading around 0.6540 following the release of economic data from Australia [1] - The NZD/USD is up near 0.6050 [1] - The USD/CAD is down, trading around 1.3670 [1] Group 2: Key Economic and Political Developments - Trump believes there is no need to extend the July 9 tariff deadline, while the Treasury Secretary admits that completing all negotiations may be difficult [2] - The U.S. Senate is set to vote on the "Big and Beautiful" bill on June 30 [2] - Trump suggests that the U.S. should keep interest rates at 1% or 2% [2] - A poll shows Trump's approval rating has dropped to a new low [2] - Fed's Kashkari expects two rate cuts starting in September, with tariff impacts potentially delaying cuts [2] - The International Bank for Settlements states that Trump's criticism of the Fed's rate decisions does not threaten its independence [2] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Senate version of Trump's tax cut plan will increase U.S. debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade [2] Group 3: Non-USD Currency Developments - Canada cancels the digital services tax to advance broader trade negotiations with the U.S. [3] - A poll in Japan shows support for the Shinto Abe cabinet has remained below 30% for four consecutive months [3] - A trade agreement reducing tariffs on U.S. auto and aircraft parts from the UK has come into effect [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - For Euro/USD, if it breaks below 1.1700, the first support level will be the June 26 low of 1.1653, followed by 1.1600 and the 50-day SMA at 1.1515 [4] - The upward trend for GBP/USD remains intact, but momentum appears to be waning after reaching a multi-year high near 1.3770 [4] - For AUD/USD, a breakout above the descending channel's upper boundary may signal the start of a strong upward trend [4] Group 5: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to watch includes Germany's June CPI at 20:00, U.S. June Chicago PMI at 21:45, and a speech by Fed's Bostic at 22:00 [5] - The Dallas Fed's June business activity index will be released at 22:30, followed by speeches from Fed's Goolsbee and ECB's Lagarde [6]

文字早评 2025/06/30 星期一 宏观金融类 宏观消息面： 1、央行等六部门：创新适应家庭财富管理需求的金融产品，规范居民投资理财业务， 提高居民财产性收入； 2、央行等六部门发布 19 项举措：支持增强居民消费能力、支持提高消费供应 效率、加强基础金融服务； 3、以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达成一致，这场为期 12 天的冲突 于北京时间 24 日结束；4、国泰君安国际获批升级牌照，成为香港首家可提供全面虚拟资产服务的中资 券商，支持加密货币交易等业务；5、美联储理事鲍曼：若通胀持续下降或劳动力市场疲软，7 月可能会 降息。美联储将于 7 月 22 日举办关于银行资本的会议；6、商务部：中美 6 月 9 日至 10 日伦敦经贸会 谈后，近日双方进一步确认了框架细节，中方将依法审批符合条件的管制物项出口申请，美方将相应取 消对华采取的一系列限制性措施。7、沪深交易所：拟将主板风险警示股票涨跌幅限制比例调整为 10%。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.76%/-1.00%/-1.15%/-1.92%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.63%/-1.26%/-2.02%/-3.96 ...

今日周一（6月30日)亚盘时段，白银t+d目前交投于8729一线下方，今日开盘于8699元/千克，截至发 稿，白银t+d暂8688元/千克，下跌1.16%，最高触及8729元/千克，最低下探8646元/千克，目前来看，白 银t+d盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 同时，他加大了对鲍威尔的批评力度，声称"如果他想要辞职，我非常乐意接受。这个央行行长简直就 是一头顽固的骡子，还是个愚蠢的人，因为他不支持降息。" 稍后，特朗普进一步补充说："我们的目标利率应当设定为1%或2%。（而目前的目标利率处于4.25%至 4.5%之间）。" 此外，他还再次对鲍威尔展开批评，称其为"愚蠢的人"和"坏人"。 上周五下午，特朗普直言，除非候选人承诺立即降息，否则他不会任命任何人担任新的美联储主席。这 一表态是白宫意图明年对货币政策施加更多控制所释放的最明确信号。 特朗普上周五说道："要是我觉得某人会维持现有利率或者有其他不符合要求的做法，我是不会让其加 入（美联储）的。我会挑选那些希望降低利率的人。外面这样的人可不少。" 而在此前几小时，美国财政部长贝森特透露，尽管鲍威尔的主席任期将持续到明年5月，但政府最快可 能会在今年10月就提名鲍威尔 ...

Core Viewpoint - Powell indicated that interest rates reflect that the U.S. economic situation is better than that of other countries [1] Group 1 - The U.S. economy is showing stronger performance compared to global counterparts, influencing interest rate decisions [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔：美国经济表现优于其他国家，这意味着利率将会比其他国家更高。 ...