证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 07 日 关注长债可能的超跌反弹 ——1 月债市投资策略 投资要点： 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 联系人 2025 年 12 月，超长债表现格外疲软，源于券商自营、基金及年金等系统性减仓超 长债。2025 年 11 月 20 日-12 月 31 日，券商自营、基金及年金等合计净卖出了 2502 亿超长利率债，交易盘超长债持仓大幅减少。或因非银机构普遍预期债市资本利得 空间有限，大幅看多股市，券商自营、债基及年金等系统性降低了债券持仓久期， 导致超长债收益率明显上升。2025 年下半年压制长债的三大因素：1）机构股市预 期高，交易盘大幅抛售超长债；2）央行迟迟不下调政策利率，买债规模较小；3） 惩罚性赎回费预期扰动，主动纯债基金规模下降。 长债特别是超长债供给问题较为突出。2018 年以来，政府债券净发行规模快速增长， 从 2018 年的仅 4.77 万亿增长至 2025 年的 13.85 万亿，使得债券 ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 05 日 投资要点： 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 本周利率整体回升，1 月债市或反弹 报告核心观点：26 年元旦假期 3 天对比 24 年元旦国内游总量增长、质量提升，全 国国内出游 1.42 亿人次，国内出游总花费 847.89 亿元。对比 24 年元旦假期出游人 次、总花费、人均花费分别+5.19%、+6.35%、+1.10%。《公开募集证券投资基金 销售费用管理规定》于 2026 年 1 月 1 日起施行，相对于征求意见稿，对债基赎回制 度整体放宽。截至 25 年 H1，债券型基金机构投资者占比为 82.76%。正式规定的出 台或缓解银行自营、理财等机构的赎回压力与流动性担忧，个人投资者 7 日持有即 可另行规定赎回费或提高短债基金的吸引力。对银行理财而言，未来或更倾向于配 置债券 ETF、同业存单基金及货币市场基金。我们目前认为债市做多的胜率较高， 2026 年债市行情可能好于预期。 本周（25/12/29-26/1/4）市场概览： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaoz ...

我很庆幸你能停下脚步花几分钟看我的文章，一点小建议，分享出来希望能帮助到各位投资者。 黄金走势分析： 周五(12月5日)因缺乏后续买盘支撑，金价上行受阻，现货黄金最高触及4259一线后开启回落，尾盘报收 4197.83美元/盎司，日线下跌0.21%，周线下跌0.74%，下周全球市场的核心变量仍围绕主要央行的政策路径展 开，其中最关键的压轴事件是美联储议息会议。当前风险偏好之所以还能维持韧性，根源在于市场对年末再度 降息的预期明显升温。按照既有定价与情绪结构，下周四凌晨（12月11日）公布的利率决议，市场倾向于认为 美联储将再次下调政策利率25个基点。若这一预期被确认，真正决定后续"2026年定价斜率"的，将是点阵图与 新闻发布会的措辞是否能给出更清晰、可持续的政策逻辑。换句话说，利率决议本身只是第一关，第二关 是"这次降息是否与点阵图路径一致"，第三关则是"发布会能否把这条路径的理由讲圆"。三者若形成闭环，风 险情绪更容易延续；若出现断裂，波动可能被迅速放大。 黄金日线级别上，布林带开口收窄，金价在布林带中轨上方运行，MACD技术指标金叉运行中，RSI技术指标 强势上升状态，金价上涨动能强势；4小时级别上:布 ...

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The report highlights the significant adjustment in the long-term bond market, indicating a supply-demand imbalance due to increased government bond issuance, which rose from 4.77 trillion in 2018 to approximately 13.35 trillion by December 2025 [6][7] - It is suggested that the future demand for ultra-long bonds may weaken, particularly from insurance funds, as the issuance of long-term bonds has surged, leading to increased pressure on banks' investment durations [7][8] - The report recommends addressing the supply-demand imbalance by controlling the issuance of government bonds and encouraging the central bank to purchase ultra-long bonds to alleviate market pressures [8][9] Group 2: China Jushi Co., Ltd. Insights - The report discusses the confidence of major shareholders in China Jushi Co., Ltd., with plans for significant share buybacks totaling between 6.75 billion and 11 billion RMB, reflecting a strong belief in the company's long-term growth potential [12][13] - China Jushi is recognized as a leading global manufacturer in the fiberglass industry, with a production capacity of nearly 3 million tons of fiberglass yarn and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.72% in revenue from 2014 to 2024 [13][14] - The company is entering the high-end electronic fabric market, which is expected to benefit from increased demand driven by advancements in computing power, positioning it for substantial growth in this sector [13][14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant shift in silver prices, with a notable decline of 2.00% as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting [1] - The ADP report reveals a decrease of 32,000 jobs in the U.S. private sector for November, which is significantly lower than the revised increase of 47,000 from the previous month and below market expectations of a 5,000 increase, suggesting a cooling labor market [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have surged, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from 71% to nearly 89% in just one week, indicating a potential weakening of the U.S. dollar in the short term [1] Group 2 - Despite a drop to a low of $57.54, the upward trend in silver prices remains intact, although a mild divergence between price movement and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may signal a potential pullback [2] - Should a pullback occur, the bearish targets will first focus on the support area transformed from the previous resistance trend line, specifically between $53.80 and $54.00, followed by testing the 50-day moving average at $50.25 [2] Group 3 - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, reported an increase in holdings by 135.4 tons, bringing the total holdings to 15,998.55 tons [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant adjustment in the long-term bond allocation value, particularly noting the weak performance of ultra-long bonds and the systemic reduction in duration by broker proprietary trading and bond funds due to limited capital gains expectations [1][2] - Since 2018, the net issuance of government bonds has rapidly increased from 4.77 trillion to approximately 13.35 trillion by December 2, 2025, with an expected net issuance of around 13.8 trillion for 2025, indicating a substantial increase in bond supply [1][2] - The report indicates a supply-demand imbalance for ultra-long bonds, with the annual issuance of interest rate bonds with a maturity of 20 years or more increasing from 1.96 trillion in 2021 to 5.28 trillion by December 2, 2025, leading to increased duration pressure on bank proprietary bond investments [1][2] Group 2 - Recommendations for addressing the ultra-long bond issues include controlling the issuance duration of government bonds and exploring the issuance of floating rate bonds to mitigate interest rate risk for banks [1][2] - The report suggests that the central bank should increase its own allocation of ultra-long bonds and encourage insurance funds to enhance their allocation to reduce the asset-liability duration gap [1][2] - The report notes that the conditions for further policy interest rate cuts may be in place, as the overall cost of interest-bearing liabilities for banks has decreased significantly, supporting the potential for lower LPR and policy rates [2]

周四(12月4日)亚市盘中，COMEX白银期货窄幅震荡上涨，最新COMEX白银价格报58.98美元/盎司，上 涨0.08%，截至发稿comex白银价格最高触及59.23美元/盎司，最低下探至58.77美元/盎司，目前来看， comex白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡整理。 【要闻速递】 ADP报告显示，美国11月私营部门就业减少3.2万，远逊于前值的修正后4.7万增幅，也逊于市场预期的 0.5万增幅。此数据强化了美国劳动力市场正在降温的迹象，并加大了市场对政策利率下调的押注， CME FedWatch工具显示，交易员目前押注美联储下周降息25个基点的概率已从一周前的71%大幅升至 接近89%。短期支撑银价，不过目前尚未出现明确的突破迹象，因此维持区间震荡，等待突破为主。 美元指数周三下跌0.45%，收报98.87，盘中低见98.82，为10月29日以来最低。在ADP就业报告公布 后，美元短暂扩大跌幅，这与市场猜测哈西特接任美联储主席并推动更多降息有关。美国财长贝森特表 示，对明年经济前景乐观，但鉴于住房等领域疲软，仍需降息，这些因素共同打压美元。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 3月白银期货多头在短期技术面占据明显整体优势 ...

Core Points - The Bank of Canada has decided to lower the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Canada rose by 2.4% year-on-year in September, driven by increases in food, daily necessities, and rent [2] - The unemployment rate in Canada is rising, influenced by U.S. tariffs, amid ongoing economic weakness [2] - The Bank of Canada anticipates that the inflation rate will remain close to the target of 2%, prompting the rate cut [2]

Group 1 - The Bank of Canada has decided to lower the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% due to ongoing economic weakness and rising unemployment influenced by U.S. tariffs [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Canada increased by 2.4% year-on-year in September, driven by rising prices of food, daily necessities, and rent [1] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney and U.S. President Trump had a positive discussion in South Korea, marking their first face-to-face meeting since trade negotiations were halted [1] Group 2 - President Trump announced the suspension of trade talks with Canada due to dissatisfaction with an advertisement sponsored by the Ontario government [1] - Trump accused Canada of misleadingly claiming that former President Reagan opposed tariffs and indicated plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on Canadian imports [1]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market experienced significant adjustments in September, influenced by strong stock market performance and institutional behaviors, particularly in long-term government bonds and capital bonds [1][2] - The bond market's performance diverged from the funding and economic fundamentals due to several factors, including a notable rise in the stock market, particularly in technology stocks, leading to expectations of economic recovery [1][2] - Institutional funds, such as pension funds, shifted significantly from the bond market to the stock market, exacerbated by regulatory impacts on public funds [1][2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the bond market's balance increased by 15.3 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, with government bonds contributing 10.3 trillion yuan and financial bonds 2.7 trillion yuan [1][4] - Bank self-operated bond investments surged, with an increase of 11.4 trillion yuan, surpassing the total for the previous year, indicating a strong shift towards bond investments amid low credit demand [1][4] - The report notes that the overall bond investment balance of major banks increased by 21.4% year-on-year, while small and medium-sized banks also saw a significant increase of 17.8% [1][4] Group 3 - The report suggests that conditions for further policy interest rate cuts may be emerging, with the central bank indicating a balanced approach to monetary policy aimed at supporting the real economy while managing risks [1][2] - Recent economic data shows a decline in investment, consumption, and export growth rates, suggesting increasing downward pressure on the economy [1][6] - The report anticipates that the bond market's configuration value is prominent, with potential stabilization and a downward trend in bond yields, particularly for 10-year government bonds [1][2]