Core Viewpoints - The current market environment shows similarities to the end of 2014, with a potential for policy changes aimed at stimulating domestic demand and addressing "involution" [5][4]. Economic Indicators - China's June CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, marking the first increase after four months of decline; core CPI increased by 0.7%, the highest in 14 months. PPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [2]. - The shift in CPI is attributed to a recovery in industrial consumer goods prices, which saw a reduction in the year-on-year decline from 1.0% to 0.5% [2]. Equity Market Insights - A-shares are driven by capital rather than traditional macro factors, with significant inflows expected from insurance and public funds, particularly into the technology sector [4]. - Hong Kong stocks are viewed as having high cost-effectiveness and potential for growth, supported by expected inflows from Southbound capital and a favorable earnings outlook [6][7]. Industry Research - The "involution" policy is driving sectors like steel and new energy, while AI is enhancing the performance of technology leaders, suggesting a focus on high-quality stocks and sectors with significant growth potential [9][10]. - The introduction of Grok-4 is expected to significantly enhance AI reasoning capabilities, leading to new investment opportunities in the computing industry [10]. Macro and Fixed Income - The bond market is anticipated to experience a slowdown in the downward trend of interest rates, with a focus on the 10-year government bond yield remaining stable [18]. - The current high valuation of convertible bonds limits their upward potential, with a recommendation to focus on lower-priced strategies [19]. Asset Allocation Strategies - A "dividend base + small-cap growth" strategy is recommended, focusing on high dividend and cash flow assets to mitigate external risks while also investing in high-volatility new stocks [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Federal Reserve Governor Waller has been discussing the potential for a reduction in the currently restrictive policy interest rates [1] Group 2 - The discussion indicates a consideration of easing monetary policy, which could impact economic growth and inflation [1] - The statement reflects ongoing deliberations within the Federal Reserve regarding the appropriate stance on interest rates in response to economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs suggests that the Federal Reserve may lower policy interest rates in September [1] Group 1 - The potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve could impact various sectors, particularly those sensitive to borrowing costs [1] - Market expectations are shifting as investors anticipate changes in monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs suggests that the Federal Reserve may lower policy interest rates in September [1] Group 1 - The potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve is anticipated to impact economic growth and inflation [1] - Market expectations are shifting towards a more accommodative monetary policy environment [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring economic indicators that could influence the Fed's decision [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS Global Research anticipates that the European Central Bank will lower its policy interest rate by 25 basis points in July [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Interest Rate Forecast** - The expected reduction in the policy interest rate is projected to be 25 basis points [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS Global Research anticipates that the European Central Bank (ECB) will lower its policy interest rate by 25 basis points in July, contingent on the outcome of US-EU trade negotiations [1] Group 1 - The expected interest rate cut by the ECB is projected to be 25 basis points [1] - The ECB may abandon its planned rate cut in July if the US-EU trade talks yield moderate results [1]

瑞士央行将政策 利率下调25个基点至0，与预期一致。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent adjustments in deposit rates by several small and medium-sized banks indicate a downward trend, with many banks now offering rates below 2% and some eliminating long-term deposit products altogether [1][3]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Numerous banks, particularly small and medium-sized ones, have lowered their deposit rates since April, with many banks making multiple adjustments in a short period [3]. - For instance, Fujian Huatuo Bank has reduced its one-day and seven-day personal notice deposit rates to 0.8% and 1.0% respectively, and its three-year fixed deposit rate from 2.7% to 2.45% [3]. - Shanghai Huari Bank has also adjusted its three-year fixed deposit rate from 2.6% to 2.5% and its five-year rate from 2.55% to 2.4%, resulting in a "negative interest rate" scenario where the five-year rate is lower than the three-year rate [3]. Group 2: Future Rate Expectations - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.50% to 1.40%, which is expected to lead to a decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by approximately 0.1 percentage points [5]. - Analysts predict that this reduction in policy rates will likely prompt further declines in deposit rates across the banking sector [5][6]. - The overall adjustment in policy rates aims to stabilize the net interest margins of commercial banks while reducing the comprehensive financing costs for enterprises [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic fundamental side shows a marginal recovery trend, but the recovery foundation needs to be consolidated, and policy expectations continue to increase. The overseas market shows signs of economic cooling, and the Fed's policy still favors anti - inflation. The bond market is in a sideways shock, and the bond bull environment remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before making band allocations [92] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **Contract Performance**: The 30 - year TL2506 contract fell 0.32%, the 10 - year T2506 contract rose 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2506 contract fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2506 contract fell 0.02%. The trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts all decreased, as did their open interests [11][28] - **CTD Bond Performance**: For the 30 - year, 200012.IB fell 0.33 and 210005.IB fell 0.15; for the 10 - year, 220003.IB fell 0.06 and 240025.IB remained unchanged; for the 5 - year, 240014.IB rose 0.03 and 220021.IB rose 0.11; for the 2 - year, 240024.IB rose 0.03 and 220002.IB rose 0.09 [11] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: On May 7, China agreed to have contact with the US, and the Chinese finance minister said China would achieve the 5% growth target in 2025. On May 8, three departments issued a package of financial policies, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut, a 0.1 - percentage - point policy rate cut, etc. The public fund industry worth over 30 trillion yuan underwent systematic reform [31] - **International News**: On May 8, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 3 was 228,000, lower than expected [32] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The yield spreads between 10Y - 5Y and 10Y - 1Y bonds widened slightly. The spread between 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts widened slightly, while the spread between 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts narrowed slightly. The inter - period spreads of 10 - year, 30 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year contracts weakened slightly [40][44][50] - **Main Contract Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T main contract decreased slightly [61] - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all declined. The DR007 weighted average rate rose to around 1.78%, and the money market tightened. The yields of short - term treasury bonds were stronger than long - term ones, with 1 - 7Y yields down 2 - 5bp and 10Y, 30Y yields up 1bp to 1.63% and 1.88% respectively. The yield spreads between US and Chinese 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds widened slightly [65][69] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 836.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and had 1617.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net injection of 781.7 billion yuan. The DR007 weighted average rate fell to around 1.52%, and the money market tightness improved [72] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bond issuance was 1433.8 billion yuan, total repayment was 813.6 billion yuan, and net financing was 620.169 billion yuan [76] - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.2095, down 81 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB strengthened. The 10 - year US treasury bond yield rose slightly, the VIX index fell slightly, the 10 - year treasury bond yield in China rose slightly, and the A - share risk premium fell slightly [82][85][89] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: The domestic economy shows a marginal recovery, but the recovery foundation needs to be strengthened, and policy expectations will continue to increase [92] - **Overseas Situation**: The US economy shows signs of cooling, and the Fed's policy still favors anti - inflation, with the possibility of delaying the rate - cut time to July [92] - **Strategy**: The bond market is in a sideways shock. Considering the long - term need for a low - interest - rate environment, the bond bull environment remains unchanged. However, beware of the risk of long - end bond price corrections. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before making band allocations [92]

Core Viewpoint - The Norwegian central bank's committee currently assesses that the policy interest rate is likely to be lowered during the year 2025 [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy Outlook** - The committee's evaluation indicates a potential decrease in the policy interest rate in 2025 [1]