市场普遍预期，美联储本轮降息尚未结束。景顺亚太区环球市场策略师赵耀预计，美联储将于年底前再 次降息两次，每次0.25厘，并在明年初再降息一次。大新银行经济研究及投资策略部也预测，今年余下 时间及明年，美联储或将各减息两次。中信证券则预计，美联储将在10月和12月的议息会议上分别再次 降息25个基点。民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，若后续美国失业率持续上升，美联储降息的可能性将 进一步加大。美联储利率预测"点阵图"也显示，美联储官员对今年剩余两次政策会议累计降息幅度的中 位数值预测为50个基点。 投资者需警惕风险，多元配置资产 对于投资者而言，美元存款的高收益背后隐藏着多种风险。中信证券研究部总监、银行业分析师林英奇 提醒储户，在选择美元存款时，不能只关注利率，还需综合考量汇率波动可能带来的影响以及不同资产 之间的收益差异。他建议，储户需要关注两方面的风险：一是汇率风险，若存款到期时人民币走强，可 能面临汇兑损失；二是机会成本，即存款相对于权益类等高回报资产所牺牲的潜在收益。上海金融与法 律研究院研究员杨海平也提醒投资者，切勿盲目追求高息，而忽视了潜在的汇率风险。 回溯2024年9月17日，美联储一声"降息"的号 ...

作者 | 第一财经 陈君君 日前，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4.00%~4.25%，这是自2024年12月以来的首 次降息。与此同时，美元汇率自年初高点持续贬值，投资者手中的美元理财产品不仅利息减少，还因汇 率折损出现本金缩水。记者注意到，在社交平台上，越来越多的投资者分享着"存美元理财，最后赔了 钱"的经历，美元理财的"高息陷阱"逐渐显现。市场普遍预期，美元高利率周期已结束，美元资产收益 率下行趋势难改。 从"稳赚"到"亏损" "年初以7.35的汇率换入5万美元，买了一款年化收益率4.5%的美元理财，当时觉得比人民币存款和理财 划算，指望能赚些利息，结果汇率一路走低，如今折算成人民币反而亏了。"一位来自上海的投资者在 社交平台上吐槽。 另一位投资者则晒出了详细账单：此前以7.28的汇率购入6000美元，成本折算人民币约4.36万元，购买 了一款180天封闭式美元理财。9月到期，本息合计约6050美元，但结汇价已跌至7.11，折算人民币约 4.30万元，半年下来亏损超过680元。"本来想吃利息，结果被汇率吞掉了。" 投资者面临的收益缩水反映出今年美元资产的整体表现。Wind数据显示，截至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024, which signals the end of the high-interest rate cycle for the dollar and a downward trend in dollar asset yields [1][4]. Group 1: Impact of Rate Cut - The recent rate cut is seen as a confirmation of the turning point for dollar asset yields, ending a nine-month period of stable policy [4]. - Foreign banks, such as HSBC and DBS, have quickly responded by lowering dollar deposit rates following the Fed's announcement [4]. - Domestic banks have not yet adjusted their rates, but there is an expectation of potential future declines [4][5]. Group 2: Investor Experiences - Many investors have shared experiences of losses from dollar-denominated financial products due to declining exchange rates, despite initially attractive interest rates [2][3]. - The average annualized yield for dollar financial products has dropped significantly from 4.52% in January to 3.79% in September [2][5]. - Investors are increasingly questioning whether investing in dollar financial products is more about earning interest or speculating on exchange rates [3]. Group 3: Risks and Considerations - The decline in dollar asset yields is attributed to both the Fed's rate cuts and the depreciation of the dollar, which has seen a nearly 10% drop in the dollar index this year [2][7]. - Analysts highlight three main risks associated with dollar financial products: exchange rate risk, interest rate risk, and liquidity risk [7]. - Future expectations regarding Fed policy and exchange rate movements remain uncertain, with differing opinions among analysts [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have led to a decrease in USD deposit rates by several foreign banks, with domestic banks following suit to lower foreign currency liability costs. Some banks are also launching short-term high-interest products to attract depositors during this period [1][2][3]. Group 1: USD Deposit Rate Adjustments - USD deposit rates have dropped to around 3%, with foreign banks like HSBC reducing rates for various terms, such as 1-year deposits to 3% and 6-month deposits to 3.5% [2]. - Domestic banks have also adjusted their rates, with previous rates for 1-year USD deposits reaching as high as 5.6%, now reduced to a maximum of 3% [2]. - The adjustment in rates is influenced by the Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut and the strengthening of the RMB, prompting banks to reduce USD asset and liability scales [3]. Group 2: Divergent Rate Adjustment Responses - Some banks have not yet adjusted their rates but are expected to do so, with current rates at 2.8% for 1-year and 2-year deposits [3]. - The pace of rate adjustments varies among banks due to differences in liability structures and funding positions, with foreign banks typically responding more quickly to international market changes [3]. Group 3: High-Interest Marketing Strategies - A few banks are countering the trend by offering short-term high-interest USD deposits, such as Hong Kong's Hang Seng Bank advertising rates of 4.1% [4]. - Other banks, like Standard Chartered and HSBC, are also promoting competitive rates for new customers, with rates reaching up to 3.8% for certain deposit terms [4]. Group 4: Considerations for Depositors - Experts emphasize the need for depositors to carefully evaluate the risks associated with USD deposits, particularly in a declining interest rate environment [5][6]. - The potential for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may lead to additional downward pressure on USD deposit rates, with expectations of two more cuts this year [6]. - Depositors should consider both exchange rate risks and opportunity costs when choosing USD deposits, as fluctuations in the RMB could lead to currency losses [6].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024, indicating a shift in the high-interest rate environment for the dollar [1][5] - The dollar has depreciated significantly since the beginning of the year, leading to reduced interest income and principal losses for investors holding dollar-denominated financial products [1][2] - The average annualized yield of dollar financial products has declined from 4.52% in January to 3.79% in September, reflecting a downward trend in dollar asset returns [2][6] Group 2 - Investors are increasingly sharing experiences of losses from dollar financial products, highlighting the risks associated with currency fluctuations and the diminishing returns from these investments [2][4] - The dollar index has dropped nearly 10% year-to-date, with the exchange rate against the yuan falling from 7.35 to 7.12, a depreciation of over 3% [2][4] - The decline in yields is particularly pronounced in fixed-income products, with expectations that yields may fall below 3.5% in the coming months [6][7] Group 3 - The recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as a confirmation of a turning point for dollar asset yields, with foreign banks quickly adjusting their deposit rates in response [5][6] - Despite the decline in yields, some smaller banks still offer competitive rates, but the overall sentiment is that exchange rate fluctuations will significantly impact actual returns [6][7] - Analysts express differing views on future Federal Reserve policy, with expectations of further rate cuts and a stable dollar-to-yuan exchange rate within the 7.0-7.5 range [8]

【 导读 】已有中资银行跟进下调美元存款利率，新一轮"降息"周期开启 中国基金报记者 马嘉昕 美联储于日前宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，市场对美元资产利率走势越发关 注。 9月23日，记者走访上海多家银行网点看到，当前各银行对美元存款及理财产品利率下调节奏 有所不同，但多认为新一轮美元存款"降息"周期已经开启。 部分外资银行和城商行反应迅速，已对美元存款利率进行调整，而大型国有银行暂未对美元 存款利率进行下调。一位国有大行浦东某支行内部人员对记者透露："目前还没有接到通知， 但应该也就是这几周了，跟随调整是必然的。" 在业内看来，各家银行对美元存款利率调降节奏不同主要与其负债结构、资金成本以及决策 机制等差异有关，预计美元存款利率年内仍将继续下调。 已有中资行跟进下调美元存款利率 记者在走访中了解到，以国有大行为代表的多数中资银行暂未对美元存款利率进行下调，但 部分中小银行已率先行动起来。 南京银行上海某支行网点理财经理对记者表示，该行在几日前对美元存款利率进行了下调， 目前起存金额为5万美元的存款，一年期存款利率已降至3.3%，20万美元起存的一年期利率 降至3.55%，分别较之前下降了10BP ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has led to a notable rise in the early termination of dollar-denominated wealth management products in the domestic market, with six products terminating early in July compared to only two in the same month last year [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Early Termination of Dollar Wealth Management Products - The frequent early termination of dollar wealth management products can be attributed to two main factors: product design and market environment changes. Many of the terminated products are "target return" type, which include stop-profit clauses aimed at helping investors lock in gains [2]. - The market environment has shifted, particularly affecting products primarily invested in U.S. Treasury bonds. Recent influences such as policy expectations, tariff conflicts, and geopolitical factors have led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, accelerating the net asset value growth and causing annualized returns to exceed stop-profit thresholds [2]. Group 2: Considerations for Investors Holding Dollar Wealth Management Products - Investors holding dollar wealth management products should assess whether to redeem based on various factors. If holding a "target return" product close to the stop-profit threshold, it may be prudent to wait for natural termination to secure gains. However, if the product has not reached the stop-profit threshold and has a longer remaining term (e.g., over one year), investors should be cautious of potential yield declines due to anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts [3]. - In the event of redemption, investors might consider allocating to short-term dollar assets to mitigate long-term currency risk while benefiting from higher interest spreads. Additionally, focusing on equity dollar assets through QDII funds that track major U.S. tech stocks, such as those in the Nasdaq 100 index, could be beneficial. Another strategy could involve converting 30%-50% of dollar assets into non-dollar currency assets or investing in emerging market stocks in countries like Vietnam and South Korea to diversify currency risk [3]. Group 3: General Investment Considerations for Dollar Assets - When investing in dollar assets, it is essential to consider personal circumstances, product characteristics, and market conditions. Investors should match their actual needs with the risk levels of the products they choose. It is also crucial to pay attention to product design and underlying assets to lock in gains and avoid market volatility [4]. - Continuous monitoring of market changes, such as the Federal Reserve's September meeting and the U.S.-China interest rate differential, is necessary for timely adjustments to asset allocations [4].

Core Insights - The recent fluctuation of the RMB against the USD has significant implications for both individuals and businesses, with the exchange rate dropping to 7.1321 on August 22, leading to direct financial losses for companies and affecting personal travel budgets [1][3]. Exchange Rate Trends and Financial Implications - Since August 4, the RMB/USD exchange rate has remained below 7.2, with an onshore closing price of 7.1792 on August 22, reflecting a 1.64% appreciation since the beginning of the year [3]. - The current exchange rate allows for a comparison of potential returns between RMB and USD deposits, highlighting a significant interest rate differential that could influence currency exchange decisions [3]. Policy Adjustments and Market Stabilization - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has emphasized the need to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate, aligning with previous policies aimed at stabilizing market expectations and enhancing cross-border financing [5][8]. - Recent policies have facilitated cross-border financing for high-tech enterprises, indicating a strategic approach to bolster economic stability and support businesses in managing foreign exchange risks [5][9]. Strategies for Key Stakeholders - Families with children studying abroad are advised to adopt a phased currency exchange strategy to maximize savings, taking advantage of current favorable exchange rates and policy support for educational expenses [6]. - Outbound tourists are encouraged to utilize new regulations that allow for more efficient management of foreign exchange, potentially reducing costs associated with currency conversion [6]. - Foreign trade enterprises are advised to leverage government policies that support risk mitigation through financial instruments, which can significantly lower operational costs [6]. Future Outlook and Expert Opinions - Economic experts suggest that the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may alleviate depreciation pressures on the RMB, while domestic growth policies could positively impact exports [10]. - The historical stability of the RMB within a certain range suggests that the current fluctuations may not warrant excessive concern among the general public, as the central bank continues to manage exchange rate volatility effectively [10][11].

Group 1 - Yang Fan, former executive of Bosera Funds, is set to join Huihua Wealth Management as Deputy General Manager and Chief Investment Officer, pending internal procedures and regulatory approval [2] - Huihua Wealth Management is China's first foreign-controlled joint venture wealth management company, with 55% ownership by European asset management giant Amundi and 45% by Bank of China Wealth Management, established on September 30, 2020, with a registered capital of 1 billion RMB [2] - Huihua Wealth Management emphasizes a top-down asset allocation strategy in equity investments, aiming to enhance returns through bottom-up stock selection, aligning with Yang Fan's experience in absolute return and safety-focused investment management [2] Group 2 - Huihua Wealth Management has experienced fluctuations in its development since its establishment nearly five years ago, with rapid growth in management scale at one point, leading the industry [3] - The company has seen changes in leadership, with Wang Qian, who has significant experience in domestic wealth management, appointed as General Manager in March 2024, following the departure of the previous manager [3] - Wang Qian has introduced a product brand system called "Global Navigation," which includes four sub-series focused on absolute return objectives [3] Group 3 - As of August 15, the weighted average annualized return for mixed wealth management products over the past three months was above 10% for six institutions, including Huihua Wealth Management, which had a 9.57% return over the past six months and a 14.64% return over the past year [5] - Huihua Wealth Management's current scale is approximately 28 billion RMB, showing significant growth since the beginning of the year, although it has decreased from its peak [5] Group 4 - Huihua Wealth Management is actively expanding its distribution channels beyond its parent bank, having signed agency sales agreements with several banks, including Bank of China and Standard Chartered Bank (China) [6] - The path to profitability for foreign-controlled joint venture wealth management companies remains challenging, and the impact of hiring experienced professionals from public funds on Huihua Wealth Management's development is a point of interest [6]

Core Viewpoint - Yang Fan, a former executive at Bosera Funds, is set to join Huizhong Wealth Management as Deputy General Manager and Chief Investment Officer, pending internal procedures and regulatory approval [1][2]. Company Overview - Huizhong Wealth Management is China's first foreign-controlled joint venture wealth management company, with 55% ownership by European asset management giant Amundi and 45% by Bank of China Wealth Management. The company was established on September 30, 2020, with a registered capital of 1 billion RMB [1]. Management Changes - Yang Fan previously held significant roles at Bosera Funds, including Managing Director and Head of Pension Investment, and has extensive experience in absolute return equity investment [2]. - The company has seen a series of leadership changes, with Wang Qian, who has a strong background in asset management, appointed as General Manager in March 2024 [5]. Investment Strategy - Yang Fan will lead the investment research team to enhance asset allocation capabilities and leverage his experience in managing "fixed income plus" pension portfolios, aligning with Huizhong's focus on absolute returns [3]. - Huizhong emphasizes a top-down asset allocation approach, complemented by bottom-up stock selection to enhance returns [3]. Product Development - Huizhong Wealth Management has developed a product brand system called "Global Navigation," which includes four sub-series aimed at achieving absolute return objectives [5]. - The company is also focused on cross-border wealth management and has launched a series of dollar-denominated wealth management products [6]. Performance Metrics - As of August 15, Huizhong's mixed-asset wealth management products had a one-year annualized return of 14.64%, ranking it among the top performers in the industry [7]. - The company's current management scale is approximately 28 billion RMB, showing significant growth compared to the beginning of the year, although it has decreased from its peak [7]. Distribution Channels - Huizhong is actively expanding its distribution channels beyond its parent bank, having signed agency sales agreements with several banks, including Bank of China and Standard Chartered Bank (China) [7].