Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has lowered the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.50% to 1.40% effective May 8, which is expected to lead to a decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by approximately 0.1% [1][2] - The reduction in policy rates is anticipated to lower various loan types, including mortgage rates, benefiting consumers and potentially stabilizing the real estate market [1][3] Group 2: Housing Loan Rates - Following the interest rate cuts, the personal housing mortgage rates are expected to decline, particularly if the 5-year LPR decreases [2][3] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued commercial personal housing loans was reported at 3.11% in Q1 2025, with a further reduction in housing provident fund loan rates to 2.6% for first-time homebuyers [3] Group 3: Deposit Rates - The decline in loan rates is likely to be accompanied by a decrease in deposit rates, as banks seek to manage their net interest margins amid pressure [4][5] - Analysts predict that deposit rates may decrease by approximately 0.1%, with smaller banks already adjusting their rates downward [5][6]

分析师：英国央行降息的空间远小于市场目前的预期 金十数据5月8日讯，伦敦施罗德高级经济学家乔治•布朗表示："今天的利率决定对任何人来说都不足为 奇。但展望未来，英国央行降息的空间远小于市场目前的预期。对英国来说，根本问题是它继续面临相 当大的产能限制。因此，由于生产率令人失望和工资增长不稳定，今年晚些时候通胀似乎将再次上升。 在我们看来，英国央行在本轮降息周期中只将利率降至4%左右" ...

交易员下调对英国央行降息的押注，预计今年仅会再降息两次。 ...

交易员减少对英国央行降息的预期，预计今年只会再降两次。 ...

【英国央行降息25个基点，符合预期】英国央行政策利率 4.25%，预期 4.25%，前值 4.5%。 ...

英国至5月8日英国央行MPC投票赞成降息 7，预期9，前值1。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Pantheon Macroeconomics forecasts that the Bank of England will lower interest rates by an additional 75 basis points within the year, with three expected cuts of 25 basis points each [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, Robert Wood, has revised down the GDP growth predictions for the UK, now expecting growth rates of 0.9% and 1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, compared to previous estimates of 1.1% and 1.5% [1] Inflation Expectations - Despite a drop in the March inflation rate to 2.6%, it is anticipated that inflation will significantly rebound in the coming months, potentially reaching 3.4% in the second quarter and only decreasing to 3.3% by the end of the year [1] Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Stance - The majority of data since the last forecast assessment suggests that the MPC will maintain a cautious stance, influenced by global economic disruptions caused by U.S. tariffs under President Trump [1] Interest Rate Cuts Timeline - The expected timeline for the interest rate cuts includes consecutive reductions in May and June, followed by a final cut in November [1]

转自：华尔街日报 全球央行都在降息，美联储成了"异类"。鲍威尔用22次"等待"释放了什么信号？ 美联储主席鲍威尔在今天凌晨的新闻发布会上，淡化了任何有关该央行将通过降息来缓解特朗普关税政 策所带来的经济疲软的印象。 鲍威尔用了22次"等待"（wait）一词来强调美联储并不着急。他说："我们认为，等待的成本相当低， 所以我们正在这样做。" 鲍威尔的言论暴露了特朗普不可预测和反复无常的贸易声明是如何在美国和其他富裕国家之间的货币政 策上造成分歧的。 造成这种差异的原因很简单：其他经济体并没有对进口商品大幅加税。因此，它们看到了需求走软和劳 动力市场走弱的影响，但没有美联储政策制定者今年晚些时候可能要应对的价格上涨的影响。 此外，由于经济刚刚经历了一段艰难的高通胀时期，美联储官员认为他们不能冒险先发制人地降低利 率，以改善招聘放缓，以免在短期内加剧物价上涨的压力。 这与2019年的情况不同，当时美联储三次降息，以支撑经济免受特朗普首次贸易战后情绪恶化的影响。 鲍威尔周三表示："这种情况下，我们不能先发制人，因为在我们看到更多数据之前，我们实际上不知 道对数据的正确反应是什么。" 其结果是，美联储的处境与欧洲、加拿大 ...

金十数据5月8日讯，加拿大人寿资产管理公司投资总监Steve Matthews指出，降息50个基点将是英国央 行即将召开的会议的重要议题，这反映出自3月按兵不动以来经济背景的转变。全球贸易中断与经济放 缓迹象——尤其是美国GDP季度数据下滑——已使更大幅度降息成为焦点。鉴于英国CPI通胀现已基本 达标，预计MPC委员丁格拉与曼恩将支持降息50个基点，为可能的意外大幅降息打开大门。不过 Matthews预测，这一阵营预计最终将被多数票否决，从而通过25个基点的降息决议，使基准利率降至 4.25%。 机构：不排除英国央行大幅降息50个基点的可能性 ...

道明证券：如果英国央行暗示更激进的降息，英镑将面临打击 金十数据5月7日讯，道明证券分析师在一份报告中称，如果英国央行周四的政策决定暗示将加大降息力 度，英镑可能走弱。他们表示，英国央行可能以8票赞成、1票反对的投票结果决定降息25个基点，政策 制定者丁格拉可能投票赞成降息50个基点。在贸易不确定性加剧的情况下，英国央行还可能下调经济增 长预期，并从进一步降息的指引中删除"逐步"一词。"通胀水平低于市场预期和货币政策报告的预测， 这让成员们对继续降息充满信心。" ...