亚洲市场今天迎来双重历史性突破，黄金与日经225指数同时绽放异彩，背后竟是两大完全不同的逻辑在驱动。 今日亚洲交易时段，投资者目睹了历史性一幕：日经225指数首次突破47000点大关，飙升近2000点，涨幅超过4%。 与此同时，避险资产黄金也不甘示弱，现货黄金价格飙升至3920.77美元/盎司，再度刷新历史纪录。 两大资产类别同时爆发，背后是截然不同的投资逻辑与市场叙事。 01 日股狂飙 02 高市早苗效应 本次日股暴漲并非空穴来风，与上周末日本政坛的重大事件直接相关。 10月4日，高市早苗在执政自民党总裁选举中胜出，预计将在本月晚些时候的国会投票中成为日本首位女首相。 市场将这一结果解读为积极信号，因为高市早苗主张宽松财政政策，支持"安倍经济学"，她力推现金补贴和退稅政策以帮助受通脹困擾的家庭。 明治安田綜合研究所經濟學家Kazutaka Maeda表示："外界普遍認為高市並不支持加息，這可能使日本央行更難推進緊縮步調。" 今天上午，日本股市开盘即展现出强势上涨态势。日经225指数一举突破47000点，创下历史新高。 截至发稿，该指数报47,682点，飙升1912点，涨幅高达4.18%。 不仅日经指数，东证 ...

新华财经东京10月6日电（记者刘春燕）由于市场预期日本自民党新任总裁高市早苗有可能在出任首相 后采取更为宽松的财政政策，东京股市两大股指6日显著上涨，双双创下收盘新高。日经225种股票平均 价格指数收盘上涨4.75%，东京证券交易所股票价格指数上涨3.10%。 受这一因素影响，东京股指周一跳空高开，两大股指全天高位运行。午盘时段，日经股指一度站上 48000点关口。当天，外汇市场同样受到冲击，日元对美元和欧元等主要货币显著走软，极大地助推了 出口相关股票的上涨。 至收盘时，日经指数上涨2175.26点，收于47944.76点；东证指数上涨96.89点，收于3226.06点。 从板块来看，东京证券交易所33个行业板块大多上涨，电气产品、机械、房地产业等板块涨幅靠前；仅 银行业、航空运输业两个板块下跌。 高市4日当选自民党总裁，有望成为日本首位女首相，市场普遍认为其未来将采取更为宽松的财政政 策。高市意外当选令不少投资者纷纷调整策略，加大力度买入股票。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

富达国际亚洲经济分析师刘培乾表示，展望未来，中国内地股市两大资金来源将左右市场对实体经济的 影响程度。其一，首次公开招股(IPO)复苏，有助巩固良性融资循环，增强金融市场支持实体经济的传 导机制。其二，宜密切留意内地散户的入市行动，虽然目前散户入市的热度仍未及十年前，但随着保证 金融资增加及更多资金由家庭存款流向股市，中国内地市场的散户动力正逐步形成。 上述两大资金来源持续流入A股股市，将有助产生财富效应，从而提升家庭可支配收入，恢复家庭消费 信心。临近中国内地十一国庆假期，旅游支出和房地产每周成交数据，将提供重要的早期经济讯号。 关于未来政策走向，刘培乾认为，宽松财政政策很大机会仍为下半年中国内地政策主调。假如经济增长 仍未见更趋稳定的迹象，房地产市场政策可望有进一步松绑空间，中国内地政府也有可能增加福利开 支，扩大补贴计划。然而，这可能需要动用更多财政资源，央行未来数季或因而面临挑战，需在支持实 体经济稳步增长与防止股市过热或出现炒风之间取得平衡。 刘培乾表示，中国内地股市近期升势并非由单一催化剂，而是由国策调整、流动性改善、中美关系缓 和，及经济基本面增强等多项重大利好因素所驱动。 刘培乾认为，中国内地 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is driven by market sentiment, with prices fluctuating upward. Overall, steel itself may lack price drivers and will maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend in the short term, following raw materials. If over - production verification is implemented, it may raise the price center of steel, while the disk profit will continue to shrink [1][7] - The trading strategy suggests maintaining a wait - and - see attitude for single - side trading, opportunistically intervening in positive spreads when the basis is low for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [9] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar was 211,960 tons (+2,900), and that of hot - rolled coil was 317,490 tons (-3,650). The daily average pig iron output of 247 blast furnaces was 242,230 tons (-210). The capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 30.2% (+1.6). Short - process steel production resumed due to full profit in off - peak electricity, and long - process steel profit increased to over 100, with pig iron production remaining high. The daily consumption of scrap steel increased to over 510,000 tons [4] - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 216,580 tons (+10,410), and that for hot - rolled coil was 315,240 tons (-8,550). The apparent demand for building materials rebounded significantly, while that for hot - rolled coil declined seasonally. The growth rate of fixed - asset investment in China from January to June decreased month - on - month, and the real estate market was still weak. The manufacturing PMI expanded, and the automobile industry maintained positive growth in production and exports, but the profit was shrinking. The home appliance industry entered the off - season, and the export situation might continue to decline [4] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory decreased by 46,200 tons in total, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 22,500 tons in total, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 11,600 tons [4] - **Outlook**: The steel production reduction slowed down, rebar inventory decreased while hot - rolled coil inventory increased. The apparent demand for building materials rebounded, and market sentiment improved. The steel market will maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to overseas tariffs and domestic macro - policies [7] Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the rebar summary price in Shanghai was 3,410 yuan (+160), and in Beijing was 3,340 yuan (+150). The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3,470 yuan (+130), and in Tianjin was 3,410 yuan (+200) [13] - **Profit**: The long - process steel profit increased to over 100. The flat - rate electricity profit of the East China electric furnace was - 23.75 yuan (+133), and the off - peak electricity profit was +141 yuan (+133) [4][29] Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - **Domestic Macroeconomy**: The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The National Energy Administration will conduct a coal production verification. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited opinions on the revised draft of the Price Law. In June, the new social financing was 4.2 trillion yuan, and the growth rate of M1 - M2 improved. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was +2.8%, with a continued decline in growth rate [35][45] - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: In the US, the initial jobless claims decreased, and the manufacturing PMI remained stable. In the Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI showed signs of stabilization [4] Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 blast furnaces was 242,230 tons (-210), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 30.2% (+1.6). The small - sample production of rebar was 211,960 tons (+2,900), and that of hot - rolled coil was 317,490 tons (-3,650) [65][69] - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 216,580 tons (+10,410), and that for hot - rolled coil was 315,240 tons (-8,550). The construction material demand showed a certain recovery, and the cement usage also reflected the demand situation. The export of steel was still high, but the demand in the manufacturing off - season was under pressure [72][83] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory decreased by 46,200 tons in total, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 22,500 tons in total [4]

Core Viewpoint - The results of the Japanese Senate elections have increased uncertainty regarding the future of the Japanese yen, as political dynamics may shift in response to economic pressures [1] Group 1: Election Impact - The Japanese Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, has pledged to remain in office and continue negotiations on the US-Japan trade agreement, but opposition parties may advocate for expansionary fiscal policies to address public welfare concerns [1] - These expectations have already put pressure on Japanese government bonds prior to the elections, negatively impacting the yen [1] Group 2: Political Risks - There is a risk that Shigeru Ishiba could be replaced by more conservative factions, which may call for the Bank of Japan to slow down interest rate hikes [1] - The current upward trend of the yen lacks clear support, indicating potential volatility in the currency's performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian GDP growth is expected to slow significantly, but a recession can be avoided, according to Stephen Brown from Capital Economics [1] Group 1: Election Outcome - The Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, won the Canadian election but lost its majority [1] - The election results are not expected to change the GDP growth outlook [1] Group 2: Economic Policy Implications - The Liberal Party is likely to continue governing and implement moderate stimulus policies [1] - Carney may need to make concessions to the New Democratic Party or the Bloc Québécois to implement his plans, potentially leading to looser fiscal policies [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - The anticipated fiscal policies may lead to a reassessment of the expectation that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates three more times this year [1] - This could prevent the Canadian dollar and bond yields from declining as significantly as previously expected [1]