惠誉解决方案旗下机构BMI的分析师在一份报告中称，鉴于近期经济前景好转，泰国央行可能会在4月 份维持其政策利率不变。这将使该央行能够评估其此前宽松周期的传导效应。BMI预计，泰国央行将在 下半年再降息25个基点，部分原因是泰铢走强。这些分析师写道，"泰铢在2025年已升值超过7%，今年 迄今又升值了1.2%，这将严重拖累泰国的对外部门。" 责任编辑：何云 责任编辑：何云 惠誉解决方案旗下机构BMI的分析师在一份报告中称，鉴于近期经济前景好转，泰国央行可能会在4月 份维持其政策利率不变。这将使该央行能够评估其此前宽松周期的传导效应。BMI预计，泰国央行将在 下半年再降息25个基点，部分原因是泰铢走强。这些分析师写道，"泰铢在2025年已升值超过7%，今年 迄今又升值了1.2%，这将严重拖累泰国的对外部门。" ...

周五菲律宾比索跌至一周低点，亚洲多数其他区域货币在窄幅区间内波动，韩国与新加坡股票市场则飙 升至历史新高。 菲律宾比索下跌0.3%，创下2月12日以来的最低水平。此前菲律宾央行周四宣布降息25个基点，该举措 已基本被市场提前消化，并未立即引发市场波动。 不过，央行行长的表态令投资者保持谨慎，他称政策前景将取决于经济信心恢复的速度。 DBS银行高级经济学家Radhika Rao表示："菲律宾央行此次降息伴随谨慎指引，反映出经济复苏弱于预 期、信心指标走软以及政府支出延迟。" 本周迄今，比索已上涨0.4%，有望结束连续四周下跌的态势。 分析师还指出，油价上涨可能影响亚洲货币，尤其是菲律宾比索。 加拿大皇家银行资本市场亚洲宏观策略师Abbas Keshvani称："今年初以来，布伦特原油价格每桶已上 涨约10美元，这略微削弱了亚洲外汇的看涨前景。" "该区域多数主要经济体都是石油净进口国，尤其是泰国、印度、韩国和菲律宾，如果能源价格居高不 下，比索将面临更大的贬值压力。" 在亚洲其他市场，印尼盾早盘下跌0.2%，但很快收复跌幅，持平运行。 印尼与美国周五签署互惠贸易协议，美国对印尼出口商品征收的19%关税保持不变。 ...

泰铢继前一天走强后走弱，泰国股市下跌。美元/泰铢涨0.4%至31.0820，势将打破五连跌走势。 泰国 SET指数 下跌0.3%至1,437.42，势将打破五连涨。 ...

Economic Growth Forecast - Thailand's economy is projected to grow by 2.0% this year, consistent with previous expectations [1] - The growth rate is expected to slow to 2.2% in 2025, down from 2.5% in 2024 [1] Export Performance - Exports are anticipated to increase by 1.0% this year, a revision from an earlier forecast of a 1.5% decline [1] Currency and Inflation - The Thai Baht has appreciated approximately 1.4% against the US dollar this year, with a projected increase of 9% by 2025, impacting export and tourism competitiveness [1] - Overall inflation rate for this year is forecasted at 0.3%, revised down from 0.5% [1] Tourism Outlook - The number of foreign tourists visiting Thailand is expected to reach 35.5 million this year, consistent with prior estimates, compared to 32.9 million last year [1] Trade Tariffs - The US imposes a 19% tariff on goods imported from Thailand, aligning with practices in other regional countries, but uncertainties remain regarding tariffs on goods transiting through Thailand from third countries [2]

泰铢兑美元汇率盘中一度上涨1.3%，至1美元兑31.228泰铢，在亚洲货币中走势领先。泰国股市一度上 涨3.3%。部分策略师和经济学家表示，泰国执政党自豪泰党在周日的选举中取得胜利，有望带来的政 策延续性，应该会提振该国股市和货币。 ...

日本首相高市早苗领导的执政党在大选中取得压倒性胜利后，日元在周一亚洲早盘交易中小幅走弱。英 镑则因英国首相基尔·斯塔默的幕僚长引咎辞职而下跌。 在高市获胜预期推动下连升六天的美元/日元上涨0.3%，至157.65； 英镑/美元下降0.1%至1.3598； 欧元/美元基本持平于1.1817； 责任编辑：丁文武 美元/泰铢微跌至31.515。 责任编辑：丁文武 日本首相高市早苗领导的执政党在大选中取得压倒性胜利后，日元在周一亚洲早盘交易中小幅走弱。英 镑则因英国首相基尔·斯塔默的幕僚长引咎辞职而下跌。 在高市获胜预期推动下连升六天的美元/日元上涨0.3%，至157.65； 英镑/美元下降0.1%至1.3598； 欧元/美元基本持平于1.1817； 美元/泰铢微跌至31.515。 澳元/美元持稳于0.7015； 澳元/美元持稳于0.7015； ...

Group 1 - The Thai baht has strengthened for the second consecutive day, indicating a positive trend in the currency market [1] - The USD/THB exchange rate decreased by 0.1% to 31.5340, reflecting a slight appreciation of the Thai baht [1] - The Thai SET index rose by 0.6% to 1,343.56, potentially reaching its highest closing level since January 28, 2025 [1]

每经AI快讯，泰铢连续第四天下跌，国内股市下跌。美元/泰铢上涨0.2%至31.6410，有望创下2026年1 月2日以来的最高收盘水平。泰国SET指数下跌0.7%至1,316.30，势创2026年1月12日来最大跌幅。 ...

Group 1 - The recent decline of the US dollar index has raised concerns about "de-dollarization" and geopolitical risks, prompting market attention [1][15] - Bloomberg Industry Research predicts that the Chinese yuan and Malaysian ringgit could generate excess returns for Asian currency portfolios due to structural advantages and reduced correlation with the dollar [1][15] - The relative performance of low-interest and high-interest Asian currencies will depend on the timing of the "de-dollarization" trend [1][15] Group 2 - Zhao Zhixuan, Bloomberg's Chief Forex and Rates Strategist for Asia, suggests that the dollar index may need to fall below 90 to trigger policy intervention, indicating further downside potential from current levels [1][15] - The yuan is expected to be the most favored currency this year, with the USD/CNY exchange rate potentially challenging the 6.7 to 6.8 level [1][11] - The dollar faces multiple structural challenges, including portfolio rotation away from US assets, ongoing arbitrage trading, and expectations of a weak dollar policy [1][15] Group 3 - European institutions, including Danish pension funds, have begun to exit the US Treasury market, with China's holdings of US debt at their lowest level since 2008 [2][16] - The trend of reducing US Treasury holdings is likely to continue, but a complete sell-off is unrealistic due to the lack of alternative markets with similar depth and liquidity [2][16] - The future may see a coexistence of multiple reserve currencies and regionalization of currency use, although the dollar's leading position is unlikely to be replaced in the short term [2][16] Group 4 - Concerns over Japan's "monetary fiscalization" have led to selling pressure on its long-term bonds, which may transmit pressure to global bond markets [2][24] - The Japanese yen is expected to strengthen against the dollar this year, with a reasonable equilibrium exchange rate around 129 [2][24][25] - Other Asian currencies are expected to show divergence, with low-interest currencies like the Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, and Singapore dollar benefiting from a declining dollar cycle [2][12] Group 5 - The yuan is viewed as the most promising currency this year, with expectations of steady appreciation against both the dollar and a basket of currencies [2][11][26] - Factors supporting the yuan's appreciation include favorable policies, interest rate differentials, and capital inflows from the stock market [2][11][26] - The Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, and Singapore dollar are also expected to strengthen, while high-interest currencies like the Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah, and Indian rupee may weaken due to fiscal stability concerns [2][12][29]

继2025年累计升值9%后，今年以来，泰铢对美元汇率已升值约1%。泰国一些行业提出担忧，认为泰 铢升值幅度已超出泰国经济基本面所能支撑的范围。 泰国皇家公报公布的新规规定，过去5年间年均黄金交易额达到或超过100亿泰铢（约合3.23亿美元） 的黄金交易商，必须向泰国中央银行报告其交易活动。 据泰国央行发布的声明，符合上述标准的黄金交易商同样需要保留至少3年的交易记录。这份声明的日 期标注为1月23日。 分析指出，此举是泰国央行为抑制泰铢持续走强所采取的措施之一。泰国央行认为，近期泰铢升值主要 是由黄金交易推动。 泰国央行行长先前说，泰国将于本周对黄金交易实施限额，通过线上平台进行的每日交易量可能会被限 制在5000万或1亿泰铢。 在泰国，黄金既是保值资产，也是跨境资金流动工具。大量资金通过线上平台买卖黄金，产生巨额泰铢 兑换需求。泰国线上黄金交易平台普遍以泰铢作为报价和结算单位。 来源｜央视新闻 编辑 ｜ 钉钉 ...