Core Insights - The influence of gold on the Thai baht has dropped to its lowest level in nearly two years, indicating that policymakers' efforts to curb the appreciation of the baht may be starting to take effect [1] Group 1: Correlation Data - The 60-day correlation between the baht and gold fell below 0.43 at the beginning of this week, marking the lowest level since November 2023 [1] - The 30-day and 45-day correlations also reached their lowest levels since February [1] Group 2: Policy Measures - Thai authorities are encouraging gold transactions to be settled in US dollars and are considering taxing physical transactions to weaken the connection between the baht and gold [1] - In June 2023, the 60-day correlation between the baht and gold was as high as 0.8, which contributed to the baht reaching a four-year high in September, putting pressure on exports and tourism [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The head of research at Kasikornbank stated that the risks associated with fiscal or monetary policy implementation serve as a moral warning, leading speculators to withdraw from bullish gold and bearish USD/THB trades [1]

新华财经北京10月31日电国际贸易紧张局势有所缓和，提振了亚洲新兴市场的风险偏好，帮助地区货币 从美国利率不确定性和地缘政治紧张带来的压力中反弹。本周，马来西亚林吉特上涨0.7%，有望创下 去年8月以来的最大单周涨幅。泰铢本周上涨1.2%，有望创下去年9月以来的最佳单周表现。泰铢今年 已升值逾6%，是该地区表现最好的货币之一，不过这种强势被视为对出口和旅游业构成风险，而出口 和旅游业是泰国经济的两大主要推动力。 （文章来源：新华财经） 法国外贸银行亚太区首席经济学家Alicia Herrero说，"美国最近对东盟的态度反映了一种战略转变。美 国似乎正在采取一种更加平衡的方式来重建与东南亚国家的关系。" ...

Group 1 - Barclays analysts indicate that despite unusual negative events in recent months, the US dollar has remained stable within a narrow range, supported by expectations of an economic rebound in the coming months [1] - The Swiss National Bank has paused interest rate cuts but may consider lowering rates below zero in the future due to external pressures and economic outlook concerns [1] - Indonesia's central bank's recent unexpected rate cut is seen as a response to political pressure, which may negatively impact the Indonesian rupiah and fiscal credibility [2] Group 2 - Thailand's export growth has significantly slowed from 11% in July to 5.8% in August, indicating weakened export momentum following the implementation of US tariffs [2] - The Thai government's credit outlook has been downgraded to negative by Fitch due to rising public finance risks and ongoing political uncertainty [2] - Apollo Global Management highlights a significant rise in US inflation risks, with 72% of CPI components exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target, raising concerns about a potential resurgence of inflation [3]

Group 1 - The Thai Baht has appreciated by 4.45% against the US dollar this year, while the Vietnamese Dong has depreciated by 8.47%, giving Vietnam a 12.92% competitive advantage in trade and tourism, putting pressure on Thailand [2] - Vietnam's economy is outperforming Thailand, with a GDP growth of 7.96% and an export growth of 18% in Q2 2025, compared to Thailand's GDP growth of 2.8% and export growth of 12.2% [2] - Despite higher growth and interest rates in Vietnam, the Vietnamese Dong has not strengthened due to the influx of speculative capital into Thailand [2][4] Group 2 - The influx of speculative capital is driven by short-term arbitrage opportunities, with potential annualized returns of up to 260% when leveraging the expected appreciation of the Thai Baht [4] - Thailand's foreign exchange reserves are robust, amounting to 52.4% of GDP, ranking fourth globally, which contributes to the Baht being viewed as a "safe haven currency" [6] - The Thai central bank has intervened in the foreign exchange market during periods of US dollar weakness, but the scale of intervention this year is not historically significant [8] Group 3 - Speculative funds have significantly entered the government bond market, reducing the 5-year government bond yield to 1.42%, alleviating financing pressure amid a budget deficit of 865 billion Baht for the fiscal year 2025 [9] - There are differing opinions on how Thailand should respond to the influx of hot money, with some suggesting a fixed exchange rate system while others advocate for allowing market-driven adjustments [8]

Core Viewpoint - The new Thai government, led by Prime Minister Anutin, is negotiating with the Bank of Thailand to stabilize the Thai baht's exchange rate following its rise to a four-year high, which has raised concerns about the impact on exports and tourism [1] Group 1: Government Actions - The incoming Finance Minister, Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, has communicated with the new Bank of Thailand Governor, Veerathai Santiprabhob, regarding the recent appreciation of the baht [1] - A task force has been established to investigate domestic gold trading, amid ongoing debates about gold's role in the baht's appreciation against the US dollar [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The Thai baht has appreciated approximately 7% this year, making it the second-best performing currency in Asia after the New Taiwan Dollar [1] - The Bank of Thailand attributes the baht's strength to the general weakness of the US dollar, a current account surplus, and record-high gold prices, which are constraining the export and tourism sectors that account for 70% of GDP [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance in the week of September 8-12, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 3.8% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 5.3% [3] - A significant inflow of capital was observed, with net purchases from mainland investors through the "Hong Kong Stock Connect" reaching 60.8 billion HKD, nearly double the previous week [3] - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, driven by a rise in initial jobless claims to 263,000, has led to increased liquidity in the market, making Hong Kong stocks an attractive investment target [3][6] Group 2 - The rise in the Hong Kong market is attributed to three main factors: external liquidity easing, recovery of the Chinese mainland economy, and supportive local policies in Hong Kong [7] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in mainland China rose to 0.9% year-on-year in August, indicating a revival of domestic consumption and supporting the earnings outlook for Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong [6] Group 3 - In Southeast Asia, currency markets displayed a mixed performance, with the Thai Baht strengthening due to rising gold prices, while the Philippine Peso depreciated due to inflationary pressures from rising oil prices [9] - The differing currency movements among Southeast Asian nations highlight the impact of each country's economic structure and fundamentals, rather than solely the influence of the US dollar [11] Group 4 - Gold and oil prices have become focal points in the market, with gold representing a safe-haven asset amid recession fears, while oil prices indicate inflationary pressures [13] - The market's expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, benefiting its price, while also raising concerns about inflation that support oil prices [13][15] Group 5 - The interplay of geopolitical uncertainties, such as US-China tariff negotiations, has heightened market demand for safe-haven assets and concerns over supply chain disruptions [15] - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market is influenced by global liquidity, the economic fundamentals of China, and supportive policies in Hong Kong, while the divergence in Southeast Asian currencies reveals the underlying economic strengths of each country [15]

Group 1 - Political risks in Southeast Asia are rising due to increasing protests in Indonesia and political instability in Thailand [1] - Indonesia's stock benchmark index fell by 1.5% last Friday, marking the largest decline among global country indices tracked by Bloomberg [1] - The Bank of Indonesia has hinted at stabilizing the Indonesian rupiah amid these challenges [1] Group 2 - Thailand's stock market also experienced a decline of 1.1% on the same day, making it one of the worst-performing markets [1] - The Thai baht weakened concurrently with the stock market downturn [1]

Group 1 - The Thai Baht is expected to continue appreciating this quarter due to easing trade tensions and renewed interest from foreign investors in local stocks [1] - Malaysia Bank predicts the Baht will strengthen to 31.5 Baht per USD by year-end, while Bank of America forecasts it will reach 31.0 Baht per USD, a level not seen since March 2021 [1] - The Baht has become the best-performing currency in Asia this quarter, supported by a tariff agreement with Washington that improves Thailand's export outlook [1] Group 2 - Domestic political concerns have eased, and expectations of another interest rate cut by the Bank of Thailand may support capital inflows, bringing the Thai stock market closer to a bull market [1] - Local stocks have rebounded over 18% since their low in June, making the benchmark SET index one of the best-performing indices globally this quarter [1] - The reduction of tariffs on Thai goods from 36% to 19% by US President Donald Trump has improved Thailand's export prospects, prompting the Finance Ministry to raise its growth forecast by increasing estimates for foreign goods exports [1]

Group 1 - The Thai baht has depreciated by 0.5% against the US dollar [1] - Ongoing border conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia have not yet been resolved [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Thai Baht has declined from a three-year high due to escalating conflicts between Thailand and neighboring Cambodia [1] Currency Impact - The exchange rate of the Thai Baht against the US Dollar fell by 0.3% to 32.29, after previously reaching a high of 32.11, marking the strongest level since February 2022 [1]