转自：新华财经 【机构分析】 •巴克莱汇市策略师指出，过去几个月虽发生"异乎寻常的利空事件"，但美元并未延续2月至5月间的大 幅走软趋势，而是在相对窄幅区间内保持稳定。他们认为，市场预期美国经济将在未来几个月反弹，是 支撑美元韧性的关键因素。不过，该行也对美联储独立性面临的威胁表示谨慎，警惕潜在政策风险对美 元的长期影响。 •凯投宏观经济学家指出，尽管瑞士央行在9月25日暂停降息，将政策利率维持在0%不变，但未来仍有 可能将利率降至零以下。瑞士央行此次暂停降息是为应对美国高额贸易关税对经济增长的威胁，但在外 部压力持续、经济前景承压的背景下，瑞士央行对2025年通胀回升的预期可能被高估。随着实际经济数 据可能弱于预期，政策制定者或将被迫进一步放松货币政策。 •美国银行分析师指出，印尼央行上周意外降息，被视为屈从于总统推动增长的政治压力，其扩张性财 政政策与宽松货币政策的组合正对印尼盾构成"轻微负面影响"，并可能损害财政信誉。 •评级机构惠誉已将泰国主权信用展望由"稳定"下调至"负面"，主因公共财政风险上升与持续的政治不 确定性。 •杰富瑞指出，印度股市年初至今跑输亚洲同行，具备短期反弹基础。海外配置偏低但有望 ...

Group 1 - The Thai Baht has appreciated by 4.45% against the US dollar this year, while the Vietnamese Dong has depreciated by 8.47%, giving Vietnam a 12.92% competitive advantage in trade and tourism, putting pressure on Thailand [2] - Vietnam's economy is outperforming Thailand, with a GDP growth of 7.96% and an export growth of 18% in Q2 2025, compared to Thailand's GDP growth of 2.8% and export growth of 12.2% [2] - Despite higher growth and interest rates in Vietnam, the Vietnamese Dong has not strengthened due to the influx of speculative capital into Thailand [2][4] Group 2 - The influx of speculative capital is driven by short-term arbitrage opportunities, with potential annualized returns of up to 260% when leveraging the expected appreciation of the Thai Baht [4] - Thailand's foreign exchange reserves are robust, amounting to 52.4% of GDP, ranking fourth globally, which contributes to the Baht being viewed as a "safe haven currency" [6] - The Thai central bank has intervened in the foreign exchange market during periods of US dollar weakness, but the scale of intervention this year is not historically significant [8] Group 3 - Speculative funds have significantly entered the government bond market, reducing the 5-year government bond yield to 1.42%, alleviating financing pressure amid a budget deficit of 865 billion Baht for the fiscal year 2025 [9] - There are differing opinions on how Thailand should respond to the influx of hot money, with some suggesting a fixed exchange rate system while others advocate for allowing market-driven adjustments [8]

钛媒体App 9月18日消息，泰国总理阿努廷领导的新政府正与泰国央行就稳定泰铢汇率措施进行磋商。 此前泰铢飙升至四年高点，引发要求紧急干预以保护出口和旅游业的呼声。候任财政部长艾尼提周四表 示，已与新任泰国央行行长维泰·拉塔纳功就泰铢近期涨势进行沟通，并敦促审查资金流动以探明货币 走强背后的异常因素。维泰预计将于10月1日开始其在央行的五年任期。艾尼提称已成立工作组调查国 内黄金交易——当前关于黄金在推动泰铢兑美元升值中作用的争论正酣。泰铢今年累计上涨约7%，成 为亚洲表现仅次于新台币的货币。泰国央行将升值归因于美元普遍走弱、经常账户盈余及黄金创纪录价 格——这些因素正制约占GDP总量70%的出口和旅游业。（广角观察） ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance in the week of September 8-12, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 3.8% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 5.3% [3] - A significant inflow of capital was observed, with net purchases from mainland investors through the "Hong Kong Stock Connect" reaching 60.8 billion HKD, nearly double the previous week [3] - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, driven by a rise in initial jobless claims to 263,000, has led to increased liquidity in the market, making Hong Kong stocks an attractive investment target [3][6] Group 2 - The rise in the Hong Kong market is attributed to three main factors: external liquidity easing, recovery of the Chinese mainland economy, and supportive local policies in Hong Kong [7] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in mainland China rose to 0.9% year-on-year in August, indicating a revival of domestic consumption and supporting the earnings outlook for Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong [6] Group 3 - In Southeast Asia, currency markets displayed a mixed performance, with the Thai Baht strengthening due to rising gold prices, while the Philippine Peso depreciated due to inflationary pressures from rising oil prices [9] - The differing currency movements among Southeast Asian nations highlight the impact of each country's economic structure and fundamentals, rather than solely the influence of the US dollar [11] Group 4 - Gold and oil prices have become focal points in the market, with gold representing a safe-haven asset amid recession fears, while oil prices indicate inflationary pressures [13] - The market's expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, benefiting its price, while also raising concerns about inflation that support oil prices [13][15] Group 5 - The interplay of geopolitical uncertainties, such as US-China tariff negotiations, has heightened market demand for safe-haven assets and concerns over supply chain disruptions [15] - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market is influenced by global liquidity, the economic fundamentals of China, and supportive policies in Hong Kong, while the divergence in Southeast Asian currencies reveals the underlying economic strengths of each country [15]

Group 1 - Political risks in Southeast Asia are rising due to increasing protests in Indonesia and political instability in Thailand [1] - Indonesia's stock benchmark index fell by 1.5% last Friday, marking the largest decline among global country indices tracked by Bloomberg [1] - The Bank of Indonesia has hinted at stabilizing the Indonesian rupiah amid these challenges [1] Group 2 - Thailand's stock market also experienced a decline of 1.1% on the same day, making it one of the worst-performing markets [1] - The Thai baht weakened concurrently with the stock market downturn [1]

Group 1 - The Thai Baht is expected to continue appreciating this quarter due to easing trade tensions and renewed interest from foreign investors in local stocks [1] - Malaysia Bank predicts the Baht will strengthen to 31.5 Baht per USD by year-end, while Bank of America forecasts it will reach 31.0 Baht per USD, a level not seen since March 2021 [1] - The Baht has become the best-performing currency in Asia this quarter, supported by a tariff agreement with Washington that improves Thailand's export outlook [1] Group 2 - Domestic political concerns have eased, and expectations of another interest rate cut by the Bank of Thailand may support capital inflows, bringing the Thai stock market closer to a bull market [1] - Local stocks have rebounded over 18% since their low in June, making the benchmark SET index one of the best-performing indices globally this quarter [1] - The reduction of tariffs on Thai goods from 36% to 19% by US President Donald Trump has improved Thailand's export prospects, prompting the Finance Ministry to raise its growth forecast by increasing estimates for foreign goods exports [1]

Group 1 - The Thai baht has depreciated by 0.5% against the US dollar [1] - Ongoing border conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia have not yet been resolved [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Thai Baht has declined from a three-year high due to escalating conflicts between Thailand and neighboring Cambodia [1] Currency Impact - The exchange rate of the Thai Baht against the US Dollar fell by 0.3% to 32.29, after previously reaching a high of 32.11, marking the strongest level since February 2022 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Thai Baht has experienced a decline from a three-year high, underperforming against other Asian currencies, as traders assess the impact of the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia [1] Currency Performance - The US Dollar has risen by 0.2% against the Thai Baht, reaching 32.23, after previously dropping by 0.2% to its lowest level since February 2022 [1] - The Thai Baht's performance is notably weaker compared to other Asian currencies during this period [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Thailand and the Ministry of Finance are discussing measures to address currency fluctuations that are inconsistent with fundamental factors, particularly the impact of gold prices on the Thai baht [1] Group 1 - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Thailand, Roong Mallikamas, highlighted that gold prices are a non-fundamental factor influencing the baht's movements [1] - Authorities are seeking ways to reduce the correlation between the baht's fluctuations and non-fundamental issues [1] - Roong emphasized that the baht should act as a shock absorber rather than an amplifier, indicating that non-fundamental issues need to be addressed [1]