Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed concerns about a potential severe recession in the U.S. economy, despite recent tariff reductions between the U.S. and China [1] Economic Outlook - Dimon indicated that the possibility of a recession remains high, although JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli reported that the likelihood is currently below 50% [1] - The recent agreement between the U.S. and China involves a significant reduction of tariffs for 90 days, alongside a suspension of tariffs on various goods from other countries [1] Tariff Impact - Dimon noted that even with the recent tariff reductions, the overall tariff rates on imports remain significantly higher than last year, which could negatively impact the economy [1] - He highlighted that businesses are beginning to hesitate in their investment decisions due to uncertainty about the future [1] Cautious Optimism - Dimon expressed cautious optimism regarding the tariff suspension, suggesting that it is essential to step back, reduce hostilities, and engage in dialogue [1] - He emphasized the ongoing global economic uncertainty and the need for policymakers and businesses to seek stable and sustainable solutions to trade issues between the U.S. and China for future economic stability [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of coke have changed little, with supply and demand remaining at a high level. Short - term demand is well - supported, but the growth rate of the demand side has begun to decline. It is expected that there is limited room for further growth in hot metal production. The domestic macro -利好 has been released, and the market has returned to the game between fundamentals and tariff policies. Although short - term coke demand is acceptable, there are still overseas risks and coking coal cost - side pressures. It is expected that the main coke contract will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the near future [5][33]. - For coking coal, domestic policy benefits have been realized, and the market has returned to fundamental trading. The current supply of coking coal is still expected to be loose, driving the futures to operate weakly. The market atmosphere is still bearish, which drives the coking coal price to operate weakly. The trend of Sino - US trade issues can be followed in the near future [6][34][35]. Summary According to the Catalog Industry News - In April 2025, China exported 1046.2 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%; from January to April, the cumulative export of steel was 3789.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In April, China imported 52.2 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%; from January to April, the cumulative import of steel was 207.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. In April, China imported 3782.5 million tons of coal and lignite, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%; from January to April, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 15267.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3% [8]. - On May 9, Mongolia's ER Company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of Meng 3 clean coal was 800 yuan/ton, and all 12800 tons of the listed quantity were unsold [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Week - on - Week Change | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Standard First - Grade Coke (Flat - Price) | 1440 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 32.71% | | Qingdao Port Standard First - Grade Coke (Out - of - Warehouse Price) | 1320 yuan/ton | - 1.49% | - 1.49% | - 34.00% | | Ganqimao Port Mongolian Coking Coal | 1030 yuan/ton | - 0.48% | - 0.48% | - 38.69% | | Jingtang Port Australian - Produced Coking Coal | 1300 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 41.18% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi - Produced Coking Coal | 1400 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 36.36% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1446.5 | - 2.10 | 1478.0 | 1444.0 | 19882 | - 8388 | 50769 | 2405 | | Coking Coal | - | 877.5 | - 1.79 | 892.5 | 877.0 | 323286 | - 67585 | 403016 | 27997 | [14] Market Outlook - Coke: The fundamentals remain stable, with short - term demand supported but limited growth in hot metal production. After the release of domestic macro -利好, the market will focus on fundamentals and tariff policies. The main contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5][33]. - Coking coal: Policy benefits have been realized, and the market returns to fundamentals. The supply is expected to be loose, driving the futures to operate weakly. Attention can be paid to the Sino - US trade issue [6][34][35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For both coking coal and coke, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", with an overall "oscillation" approach [1]. - Coking coal has high supply pressure and a weak fundamental situation, which drags down the futures to run at a low level. The follow - up trend of Sino - US trade issues needs attention [5]. - Although there are short - term favorable policies for coke, overseas risks and cost - side pressures from coking coal still exist, and the long - short game is intense, with the futures main contract likely to maintain low - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1035.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1008 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Situation**: On May 7, a series of major favorable policies were introduced, but the domestic main production areas have a stable safety supervision environment, coal production in Shanxi remains high, and the reduction in imports is expected to be limited, resulting in high supply pressure [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of the quasi - first - grade flat - price at Rizhao Port is 1440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1583 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Situation**: A "package" of incremental policies were introduced this week, and after a period of fermentation, the market will refocus on Sino - US trade issues and the commodity's own fundamentals. Although short - term demand is okay, overseas risks and coking coal cost - side pressures still exist [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 7, the coke main contract closed at 1,507 yuan/ton, down 0.66% intraday. After the domestic policy expectations are fulfilled, although the short - term demand for coke is okay, there are still overseas risks and coking coal cost - side pressures. The long - short game of coke remains intense, and the futures main contract may maintain low - level fluctuations [5][33]. - On May 7, the coking coal main contract closed at 908 points, down 0.77% intraday. The domestic policy expectations are fulfilled, but the fundamentals of coking coal are still weak, dragging the futures to run at a low level. Attention should be paid to the future trend of Sino - US trade issues [6][34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - On May 7, the central bank announced three major measures: reducing the reserve requirement ratio, cutting interest rates, and lowering the provident fund interest rate, providing heavy - weight credit policy support for the property market. The reserve requirement ratio was cut by 0.5 percentage points, expected to provide about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity to the market. The policy interest rate was cut by 0.1 percentage points, and the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate was cut by 0.25 percentage points [8]. - On May 7, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal A9, S0.5, V20, G85 was 1,290 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class coking coal for flat - position delivery was 1,440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. The price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - class coking coal for out - of - warehouse delivery was 1,320 yuan/ton, down 1.49% compared to the previous price. The price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,035 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat [13]. 3.3 Futures Market - On May 7, the closing price of the coke futures main contract was 1,507 yuan/ton, down 0.66%, with a trading volume of 24,881 and an open interest of 45,157 hands, an increase of 3,280 hands from the previous trading day. The closing price of the coking coal futures main contract was 908 yuan/ton, down 0.77%, with a trading volume of 342,798 and an open interest of 360,120 hands, an increase of 16,714 hands from the previous trading day [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory, coking coal inventory, and other aspects, including the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and coking coal, as well as charts on Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [15][21][27] 3.5 Future Outlook - The situation of coke and coking coal futures is similar to the core viewpoints. For coke, the long - short game remains intense, and the futures main contract may maintain low - level fluctuations. For coking coal, the fundamentals are weak, dragging the futures to run at a low level [5][6][33]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that President Trump plans to sign an executive order to significantly streamline and restructure the U.S. State Department, aiming to reshape U.S. foreign policy [1][3] - The draft proposal suggests the elimination of dozens of positions and departments, including those responsible for climate, refugee, and African affairs, as well as the International Organizations Bureau [1][3] - The plan includes substantial cuts to U.S. diplomatic actions in Canada and the closure of "non-essential" consulates in Africa, which could lead to job losses for 45,000 local employees [1][3] Group 2 - Secretary of State Rubio stated that the current State Department is bloated and bureaucratic, making it difficult to fulfill its important diplomatic missions in the context of great power competition [3] - The restructuring is described as the largest transformation of the U.S. diplomatic system in decades, reflecting the Trump administration's efforts to reshape foreign policy and reduce the size of the federal government [3] - The article highlights that the U.S. does not have a foreign minister position, with the Secretary of State serving as the highest administrative officer of the State Department, which reflects the U.S. approach to global governance [3] Group 3 - The article discusses the ongoing trade war with China, noting that both sides remain in a stalemate that significantly impacts the global economy [5] - Trump's comments on the need for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates indicate concerns about potential economic slowdown due to the trade policies [5] - The article emphasizes the importance of rational and pragmatic communication between the U.S. and China to seek mutually beneficial solutions to trade issues [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the U.S. actions do not reflect a genuine willingness to engage in dialogue regarding trade issues with China [1] - The Chinese side insists that if the U.S. truly wants to negotiate, it should adopt an attitude of equality, respect, and reciprocity [1] - The Chinese government warns that if the U.S. continues to disregard the interests of both countries and the international community by insisting on a tariff and trade war, China will respond resolutely [1] Group 2 - The article mentions that the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has taken action, indicating potential positive developments for state-owned enterprises [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has also intervened by increasing its holdings, suggesting a supportive monetary policy environment [2]