Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the premium rates of cross-border ETFs, particularly the Japanese TOPIX ETF, reflects increased caution among domestic investors due to tariff uncertainties and market volatility [1][8]. Group 1: ETF Performance and Market Sentiment - As of April 28, the premium rate of the Japanese TOPIX ETF has fallen into negative territory at -0.33%, indicating a significant drop in investor interest [1][8]. - The premium rates for various ETFs linked to the US and Japanese stock markets have decreased to below 1%, compared to a peak of 20% last year [1]. - The US 50 ETF, which tracks the MSCI USA 50 Index, has seen a cumulative decline of 11% since the beginning of 2025, with a premium rate narrowing to approximately 0.78% [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 index is currently fluctuating within a range of 5000 to 5500 points, influenced by mixed factors including tariff policy flexibility and earnings expectations [4]. - Despite the overall challenging macro environment, approximately 46% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings exceeding expectations, with only 10% significantly below expectations [5]. - The corporate buyback window has opened, with an approved buyback scale of $377.1 billion so far this year, expected to reach $1.45 trillion for the year, providing substantial market support [6]. Group 3: Japanese Market Outlook - Japanese equities are viewed positively by institutions, with expectations of continued wage growth and inflation stabilization, which may support the stock market [10][11]. - The introduction of the NISA system in January 2024 is anticipated to accelerate the inflow of tax-exempt savings into the Japanese stock market, potentially increasing local investor interest [11][12]. - The governance reforms in Japanese companies have attracted significant international capital, improving transparency and reducing volatility in the stock market [12].

Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the U.S. GDP growth forecast for the end of 2025 from 1.7% to 0.5%, citing risks from trade wars, tightening financial conditions, and escalating geopolitical tensions [1] - JPMorgan has raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 60%, predicting that the economy will enter a recession starting in June, with the weakest months occurring mid-year [1] - Morgan Stanley warns that unless the White House abandons its tariff plans or the Federal Reserve shows signs of easing, investors should prepare for further declines in the S&P 500 index [1] Trade Policy Impact - The implementation of high tariffs under Trump's administration may disrupt the profitability of many goods, forcing traders to explore other markets or significantly raise prices [1] - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is considering legal action against the Trump administration regarding the tariff dispute, reflecting the concerns of its members about rising import costs and lost export markets [3][4] Industrial Growth - In the first two months of the year, 19 out of 27 cities with a GDP exceeding one trillion yuan reported industrial growth rates surpassing the national average of 5.9% [5] - Cities like Xi'an, Hefei, and Yantai showed remarkable industrial growth rates of 16.4%, 13.4%, and 10.2% respectively, driven by emerging industries [5][6] BYD Performance - BYD expects a first-quarter profit of 8.5 to 10 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 86.04% to 118.88% [9] - The company produced 1.057 million new energy vehicles in the first quarter, a 72.64% increase year-on-year, with overseas sales growing approximately 110% [9][10] Consumer Lending Trends - As of April 7, 2024, 12 out of 23 listed banks reported double-digit growth in consumer loans, with the Bank of Communications leading with a 90% increase [11][12] - The expansion of consumer loans is seen as a response to stimulate market demand, although it raises concerns about rising default risks among younger borrowers [12] Market Reactions - A significant number of A-share companies, including CATL, announced share buybacks to stabilize market sentiment amid trade war fears [13][14] - The stock market showed a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.58%, driven by optimism in agriculture and consumer sectors [15][16]

拼多多现在比阿里更会赚钱 在又一个狂奔的季度后，拼多多拖着仍在亏损的海外业务，经营利润第一次超过了阿里巴巴，达到 259 亿元、比去年四季度电商旺季还好，这一规模非常接近交通银行和中国人寿。当季淘天经调整 EBITA 仍 高于拼多多，但阿里经调整 EBITA 低于拼多多。 今年前 3 个月里，拼多多总收入是去年同期的 1.3 倍、达到 868 亿元。其中包含跨境电商 Temu 业务的 交易服务收入是去年同期的 3.26 倍、达到 443.55 亿元，占总收入比重第一次超过在线营销收入。 业绩会上，管理层继续建议投资者不要基于几个季度的结果来预测拼多多的增长。高管们还在业绩分享 和问答环节讲了大概 24 次农业（2021 年二季度讲了 81 次）。据 Wind，财报发布后，拼多多股价开盘 后涨近 5%、截至发稿收窄至 1.8%，市值 2057 亿美元左右。阿里巴巴同时期跌 3% 左右、市值来到 2130 亿美元。 拼多多现在比阿里更会赚钱 快手要拿 1/4 资金回购 微软想提供有用的 AI 华尔街最有权力的人考虑退休 关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 在线营销和交易服务收入相比去年同期大幅 ...