Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, highlighting Iran's weaknesses in missile defense and retaliation capabilities, particularly in the context of its nuclear facilities and military infrastructure [3]. Summary by Sections Nuclear Facilities Information - The article provides detailed information about Iran's nuclear facilities, including the Ardakan Yellowcake Production Plant, Bandar Abbas Uranium Production Plant, Isfahan Uranium Conversion Facility, Natanz Fuel Enrichment Complex, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, Parchin Complex, and Arak Heavy Water Research Facility, noting their processing capacities and vulnerabilities [4][5][7][10][13][14][17][26]. Recent Military Developments - The article outlines the timeline of military tensions, including the second round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, Israel's military threats, and Iran's large-scale air defense exercises in response to perceived threats from Israel [30][31][32][41]. - It details Israel's large-scale airstrike on June 13, which targeted Iranian military and nuclear facilities, including the assassination of key Iranian officials and the destruction of missile launch sites [46][48][54]. Analysis of Iran's Missile Capabilities - The article analyzes Iran's missile launch capabilities, identifying three types of missile silos and their vulnerabilities to Israeli airstrikes. It emphasizes that many of these silos lack adequate protection and have been compromised by Israeli intelligence and military operations [62][75][78]. - Despite Iran's claims of retaliatory strikes, the article notes that Iran's response has been limited and ineffective, with ongoing Israeli air operations continuing to target Iranian assets [61][78]. Strategic Implications - The article concludes that Iran lacks the capacity for prolonged warfare, primarily due to its dependence on energy resources and the vulnerability of its critical infrastructure to attacks. It suggests that Iran may be forced to negotiate a ceasefire rather than escalate the conflict further [80][82].

Group 1 - The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated significantly, with Israel attacking Iranian nuclear and military facilities, as well as oil facilities, and claiming to have assassinated more Iranian military officials and scientists [1][4][6] - Iran retaliated by launching over 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, with plans to increase the scale of attacks in the coming days, including targeting U.S. military bases in the Middle East [1][7][9] - The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) stated that their military operations against Iran are just beginning, with airstrikes intensifying around Tehran and other regions [4][9] Group 2 - The recent airstrikes resulted in significant casualties, including the collapse of a residential building in Tehran, leading to 60 deaths, including 20 children [6] - Israel confirmed the successful assassination of nine high-ranking Iranian scientists involved in Iran's nuclear weapons program [6] - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed to have hit over 150 Israeli targets in retaliation, resulting in 4 deaths and over 200 injuries in Israel [9] Group 3 - The U.S. has been accused by Iran of being complicit in Israel's actions, although the U.S. denies involvement and emphasizes the need for negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program [12][16] - The U.S. is increasing its military presence in the region, with naval assets being deployed to the Eastern Mediterranean [16][18] - Experts warn that the situation in the Middle East is extremely dangerous, especially with the potential for U.S. involvement in the conflict [18]

Group 1 - Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced that the "Real Promise-3" retaliation operation has hit over 150 Israeli targets, with successful drone strikes penetrating Israeli air defense systems [1] - The Iranian military plans to continue actions against Israeli targets and is preparing to strike U.S. military bases in the Middle East, with the next round of missile attacks on Israel expected to use "20 times" the number of missiles previously deployed [1] - Israeli health authorities reported that the recent large-scale Iranian attacks resulted in 3 deaths and over 100 injuries within a 12-hour period [1] Group 2 - Following a night of mutual strikes, Tehran has temporarily returned to calm, with reports of explosions from intercepted Israeli missiles and those hitting targets [2] - Iran's Foreign Ministry accused the U.S. of supporting Israeli attacks and stated that such actions would not have occurred without U.S. permission, rendering negotiations over Iran's nuclear program meaningless [3] - Despite the ongoing tensions and the impact on negotiations, Iran has not made a final decision on whether to cancel the sixth round of nuclear talks with the U.S., which was scheduled for June 15 in Oman [4]

1. 乌称袭击俄坦波夫州一核心火药厂。 2. 泽连斯基称哈尔科夫市遭袭，已致3死64伤。 3. 克宫：如果乌克兰拒绝莫斯科的要求，它将失去更多领土。 1. 俄罗斯特使：美俄会谈将在莫斯科举行。 2. 克里姆林宫：（关于欧盟降低俄油价格上限的声明）此类行动不利于全球能源市场的稳定。 3. 俄罗斯官员：莫斯科将1212具乌克兰士兵的遗体送回基辅，乌克兰交还了27具遗体。重伤的战俘交换 将于星期四开始。 4. 比利时拒绝扣押俄冻结资产的提议。 5. 普京：新国家军备计划应重点关注"核三位一体"力量。 6. 德国总理默茨：针对俄罗斯的欧盟制裁方案最迟应在下周达成一致。 7. 俄罗斯称愿意将伊朗多余的核材料运走，帮助推进伊核谈判。 8. 自俄乌冲突爆发以来，德国从俄罗斯的进口暴跌了95%。 4. 俄罗斯国防部：俄罗斯机械化步兵部队已抵达顿涅茨克地区的西部边界，并与一支坦克师一同在乌克 兰第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克地区推进。 其他情况： 金十数据整理：俄乌冲突最新24小时局势跟踪（6月12日） 冲突情况： ...

订阅美国VS伊朗动态 +订阅 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 俄罗斯称愿意将伊朗多余的核材料运走，帮助推进伊核谈判 金十数据6月11日讯，俄罗斯周三表示愿意将伊朗的核材料运走并转化为燃料，以这种方式帮助缩小在 伊朗核计划问题上的美伊分歧。俄罗斯负责军控和对美关系的副外长里亚布科夫周三对俄媒体表示，应 加倍努力达成解决方案，莫斯科愿意在想法和实际方式上提供帮助。"我们愿意向华盛顿和德黑兰双方 都提供帮助，不仅是政治上的，也不仅限于在谈判过程中可能有用的想法，而是在实际层面：例如，将 伊朗生产的过剩核材料出口，然后用于生产反应堆燃料。"美国希望伊朗将高浓缩铀（HEU）全部运 走。而德黑兰表示，只应将超过2015年协议中规定上限的多余HEU运出。 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-05-30 伊朗燃料油出口维持低位 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.87%，报2972元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.06%，报3512 元/吨。 原油价格维持震荡态势，短期多空因素交织，趋势暂不明朗，对燃料油市场指引有限，中期则面临平衡表转为过 剩的压力。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 就燃料油自身基本面而言，目前矛盾有限，高低硫市场结构均存在一定支撑。其中，低硫燃料油月差、裂解价差 开始出现一定幅度回落，但目前还没有明显的过剩迹象。中期来看，船燃需求份额下行、剩余产能偏多的压力并 未逆转。高硫燃料油方面，虽然目前没有供应紧张的信号，但支撑因素还在延续。在美国制裁的压力下，伊朗燃 料油供应仍受到抑制。参考船期数据，伊朗5月高硫燃料油发货量仅有72万吨，环比4月减少34万吨，同比去年下 降130万吨。伊核谈判尚未出现实质性进展，叠加夏季用电高峰，伊朗燃料油出口或维持低位。 策略 高硫方面：震荡 低硫方面：震荡 跨品种：无 跨期：关注逢低多FU2507-2509价差机会，前期正套头寸可逢高止盈 期现：无 期权：无 ...

另据土耳其阿纳多卢通讯社报道，阿曼政府25日称，伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬将于27日对阿曼进行为期两天的正式访问，讨论地区和国际形势发 展。阿曼方面称，此次访问旨在加强两国之间的长期友谊，深化双边合作。双方讨论的内容将涵盖"鉴于地区和国际形势发展而共同关心的一 系列领域和问题"，但未说明将讨论哪些具体议题。截至发稿时，伊朗尚未正式确认此次访问。 法新社称，由阿曼斡旋的此次谈判于今年4月启动，是自特朗普第一任期内美国单方面退出伊核协议后，两国之间最高级别的接触。不过，在 最新一轮谈判结束后，伊朗外交部长兼首席谈判代表阿拉格齐淡化了谈判进展，强调"谈判过于复杂，无法在两三次会谈中解决问题"。阿拉格 齐还表示，下一轮谈判时间和地点尚未确定。阿曼外交大臣巴德尔在X平台上称第五轮谈判 "取得了一些但并非决定性的进展"，并表示希望 "剩余问题" 在未来几天内厘清。 【环球时报记者 李萌 环球时报特约记者 线一凡】综合路透社、美联社等媒体26日报道，在阿曼的调解下，伊朗与美国23日在意大利罗马开启 为期3天的第五轮间接核谈判。美国总统特朗普25日表示，美方与伊朗方面在核问题上进行了 "非常好的对话"，他认为在伊朗问题上可能会有 一 ...

Group 1 - The core issue in the negotiations between the US and Iran revolves around Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities, with the US firmly opposing any form of enrichment [1][2] - US Middle East envoy Steven Witkoff stated that the US will not allow Iran to have even 1% of uranium enrichment capability, emphasizing that any agreement must exclude enrichment to prevent the potential for weaponization [1] - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi countered that Iran's enrichment activities are a core right of the Iranian people and will continue regardless of any agreements [1] Group 2 - Araghchi expressed that if the US wants to ensure Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons, both sides could reach an agreement through serious dialogue, indicating Iran's readiness for a permanent solution [2] - The timing and location for the fifth round of US-Iran negotiations will be announced soon, suggesting ongoing diplomatic efforts [2]

伊朗外长：美国"不切实际的期望"将阻碍伊核谈判 智通财经5月19日电，伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐18日说，美国方面对于伊朗铀浓缩活动"不切实际 的期望"将对双方围绕伊朗核计划进行的谈判构成阻碍。当天早些时候，美国广播公司播出对美国中东 问题特使史蒂文·威特科夫的采访。威特科夫强调美方的"红线""非常非常明确"，即"我们不允许（伊朗 拥有）哪怕1%的铀浓缩能力"。针对威特科夫的说法，阿拉格齐告诉伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社，铀浓缩活 动"无法阻止"，"不切实际的期望会阻碍谈判"。 ...

中东局势方面，当地时间5月11日晚间，哈马斯宣布将释放最后一名仍存活的美国人质Edan Alexander。哈马斯在声明中指出，作为加沙地带停火努力的一部分，该 组织在过去几天与美国政府进行了接触，并表达了强烈的积极态度。 另据美国政治新闻网报道，胡塞武装同意不再袭击红海的美国船只，以换取美国停止军事袭击。阿曼外交大臣巴德尔此前宣布，美国与也门胡塞武装达成停火协 议，为双方持续数月的军事对抗按下暂停键。 直线拉升 5月12日午后，集运指数（欧线）主力期货合约直线拉升，强势涨停，截至收盘，涨幅达16%，报1466.2点。 航运市场传来利好信号。 今日午后，集运指数（欧线）主力期货合约直线拉升，强势涨停，截至收盘，涨幅达16%。分析指出，宏观层面，中美贸易局势出现缓和迹象，盘面多头情绪有所 恢复。另外，部分航司尝试6月份挺价至2900美元/TEU的位置。 运力调配至美线的可能性也十分有限。欧线当前的核心矛盾依然在于正常的货运需求无法消化偏饱满的运力规模。 广发期货指出，宏观层面，中美贸易局势缓和，盘面多头情绪有所恢复。另外，部分航司尝试6月份挺价至2900美元/TEU的位置，该价格能否落地还有待观察。 国泰君安期 ...