美国与伊朗的第三轮间接谈判26日在瑞士日内瓦举行。谈判未达成协议，但各方作出积极评价，并宣布 计划3月2日在奥地利首都维也纳继续进行技术讨论。谈判同日，特朗普据称听取了军方有关对伊朗军事 选项的报告。 特朗普说，美国尚未就是否对伊朗发起军事打击作出最终决定，将观察"进一步谈判后会发生什么"。 本文转自【新华网】； 特朗普还说，他不想动武，"但有时候不得不这么做"。他重申不允许伊朗拥有核武器。 新华社华盛顿2月27日电（记者徐剑梅 黄强）美国总统特朗普27日表示，他"不满意"当前伊核谈判进 展，但尚未就是否对伊朗发动军事打击作出最终决定。 他在离开白宫时对记者说，谈判中，伊朗不愿意向美国提供美方"应得的东西"，他"很不满意"。 ...

△《纽约时报》报道，负责斡旋的阿曼外交大臣表示26日谈判取得了重大进展，但专家认为，形势紧迫感仍然 存在 当地时间2月26日，美伊新一轮日内瓦谈判结束。阿曼外交大臣巴德尔·布赛义迪在社交平台称谈判取得"重大进 展"，并透露双方将于下周在维也纳展开技术层面磋商。 对外界而言，这无疑是一个"往前走"的信号，但同样不能忽视的是，进展不等于突破，更不等于风险解除。从 公开报道看，围绕铀浓缩、制裁减免以及导弹与地区行为等核心问题，双方仍存在明显分歧，军事压力亦未退 场，谈判进入的是一个新的、更加技术化但仍高度脆弱的阶段，而非接近终局的"安全区"。 △CNN报道，阿曼外交大臣巴德尔·布赛义迪在社交平台称，美伊谈判取得"重大进展" 三轮会谈后进入"技术阶段" 意味着什么 本轮日内瓦会谈前，美伊已在阿曼和瑞士进行了两轮主要接触。 首轮阿曼谈判的核心任务，是恢复高层沟通并设定大致议题框架，避免在完全缺乏沟通的背景下滑向失控升 级。各方强调的均是双方愿意继续谈而不是谈成了什么具体内容。 随后的第二轮日内瓦谈判，伊朗代表团带去了核、法律和经济方面的专家，美伊代表分别与阿曼外交大臣和国 际原子能机构总干事会面，伊朗媒体在那一阶段就已 ...

2月24日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。有记者提问，美国被曝考虑在伊核谈判前对伊朗实施有 限军事打击。请问中方对此有何评论？ 毛宁表示，中方正在密切关注有关动向。我们希望各方保持克制，通过对话解决分歧。中东地区紧张局 势升级，不符合任何一方的利益。 （原标题：美国被曝考虑在伊核谈判前对伊朗实施有限军事打击，外交部：中方正密切关注有关动向， 希望各方保持克制） 来源：北京日报 ...

【环球网报道】近期，美国与伊朗关系紧张，多家媒体报道称，越来越多的证据表明美对伊军事行动"迫在眉睫"。目前，美国已在中东地区部署一个航空 母舰打击群，第二个航母打击群正在部署。在这种背景下，有美媒发现，美国国防部长皮特·赫格塞思当地时间2月18日与友人在"享受阳光"。 美国《野兽日报》提到，与此同时，消息人士18日向美国Axios新闻网透露，特朗普正对持续进行的伊核谈判感到厌倦，他可能会兑现发动大规模军事行 动的威胁。"他快要忍无可忍了。身边有人劝阻他别对伊朗开战，但我认为未来几周爆发军事行动的可能性高达90%。"一名特朗普助理向Axios透露。 据美国《纽约》杂志报道，美国联邦医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心主任穆罕默德·奥兹当地时间2月18日在社交媒体X上晒出他与赫格塞思一起度假的照 片。奥兹写道，"皮特·赫格塞思部长到访与我们一起享用海滨午餐。他能通过扒树引体向上、冷水浴、地中海美食，让一个悠闲午后变成一场精彩盛 宴！" 奥兹配了三张照片，分别展示了他所说的内容。其中一张照片中，赫格塞思与奥兹一同扒着一棵树做"引体向上"。照片据信是在奥兹位于佛罗里达州棕榈 滩的住所拍摄的，位置距离美国总统特朗普的豪宅海湖庄园 ...

Group 1 - The core agreement between President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is to increase economic pressure on Iran [2][8] - The "maximum pressure" campaign will coincide with nuclear negotiations, while the U.S. is also enhancing military deployments in the Middle East as a contingency plan [3][8] - A recent executive order signed by Trump allows for tariffs up to 25% on countries engaging in trade with Iran, providing a basis for increased economic pressure [3][8] Group 2 - The ultimate goal discussed is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, although there are differing views on how to achieve this [3][8] - Netanyahu expressed skepticism about reaching a good agreement with Iran, suggesting that even if an agreement were signed, Iran would not comply [3][8] - Trump remains optimistic about the possibility of reaching an agreement, stating, "let's see if it works, we will try" [3][8] Group 3 - Trump's advisors, Steve Mnuchin and Jared Kushner, indicated that while reaching a satisfactory agreement with Iran is challenging, Iran's recent statements have been relatively reasonable [3][8] - The U.S. is maintaining a realistic attitude towards Iran, emphasizing that the ball is in Iran's court and that they will not accept anything less than a binding agreement [10] - A proposed U.S. offer included a suspension of uranium enrichment by Iran for 3 to 5 years, which Iran reportedly rejected [10]

Core Viewpoint - Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei rejected U.S. President Trump's proposal to restart nuclear negotiations, dismissing Trump's claims about the destruction of Iran's nuclear capabilities [1][3]. Group 1: Khamenei's Response - Khamenei stated that a deal accompanied by coercion and predetermined outcomes is not a transaction but rather an imposition and bullying [3]. - He emphasized that U.S. interference regarding Iran's nuclear facilities is inappropriate, erroneous, and coercive [3]. Group 2: Context of Negotiations - Trump suggested that a peace agreement between Washington and Tehran would be beneficial following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas [3]. - Prior to this, Tehran and Washington had engaged in five rounds of indirect nuclear negotiations, which ended with U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June [3].

Group 1 - The Supreme Leader of Iran, Khamenei, rejected the proposal from U.S. President Trump to restart nuclear negotiations [1][3] - Khamenei refuted Trump's claim that "the U.S. has destroyed Iran's nuclear capabilities," asserting that Iran's nuclear capabilities still exist despite the assassination of some nuclear scientists [3] - Khamenei emphasized that Iran will not yield to external pressures and will not agree to any imposed agreements [3] Group 2 - Khamenei stated that Iran still possesses sufficient missile stockpiles and can strike enemies at any time [3]

Core Viewpoint - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei rejected U.S. President Trump's proposal to resume nuclear negotiations, asserting that Iran's nuclear capabilities remain intact despite U.S. claims of their destruction [1] Group 1: Iran's Nuclear Capabilities - Khamenei criticized U.S. interference in Iran's nuclear industry as illegal and erroneous, emphasizing that Iran's nuclear capabilities are still present despite the assassination of some nuclear scientists [1] - He stated that Iran will not yield to external pressures or agree to any imposed agreements [1] Group 2: Military Readiness - Khamenei highlighted that Iran possesses sufficient missile stockpiles and can strike enemies at any time [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer short - term bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [4][5] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance in the multi - empty trend and poor operability on the market [4][5] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term balance in the multi - empty trend and poor operability on the market [4][5] - Asphalt: ★★★, showing a clearer short - term bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [4][5] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balance in the multi - empty trend and poor operability on the market [4][5] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market's medium - term bearish trend continues, and prices are expected to decline. Products such as fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and liquefied petroleum gas will be affected by the crude oil market and their own fundamentals, showing different trends [1][2][3] Summary by Product Crude Oil - The SC11 contract fell 2.3% today. The agreement between the Iraqi government and the Kurdish Autonomous Region to resume exports of 230,000 barrels per day pressured the market. The market's supply - demand surplus will increase in Q4 this year and Q1 next year, with surpluses of 1.64 million barrels per day and 2.67 million barrels per day respectively. The average price of Brent is expected to drop from $68 per barrel in Q3 to $63 per barrel, and the average price of SC from 500 yuan per barrel to about 465 yuan per barrel. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of combining high - level short positions and call options [1] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - For high - sulfur fuel oil, demand has declined, Chinese imports in August decreased significantly month - on - month, and the summer power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa has subsided. Although the Singapore high - sulfur inventory has decreased, it remains high. The fundamentals have limited impact on prices, but concerns about supply support high - sulfur valuations. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply was pressured due to the RFCC device failure in Nigeria, but this negative factor has been somewhat digested. Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils will follow crude oil and maintain a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in Iran, Russia, and Ukraine [2] Asphalt - The latest weekly shipment volume increased significantly month - on - month. There is a pre - holiday rush demand in the northern regions. The initial production plans of refineries in October show a significant year - on - year increase and little month - on - month change. The factory inventory remained stable month - on - month, the social inventory decreased by 57,000 tons, and the overall inventory level decreased month - on - month. The asphalt futures price is in an oscillatory consolidation pattern with support below [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Crude oil led the decline in oil product futures, and LPG slightly followed. The refineries' increased self - use of liquefied gas squeezed the external supply, causing the commodity volume to decline compared with last week. Typhoon weather in the South China region affected the import arrival, and the import arrival volume in East China increased month - on - month but remained at a low level. The combustion demand was stable, the chemical consumption of olefin C4 and propane decreased while the chemical consumption of butane increased, and the overall consumption increased slightly. It is expected that the LPG market will mainly oscillate at the bottom [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] Report's Core Views - The bearish trend in the crude oil market continues, with the estimated average price of Brent crude oil in Q4 dropping from $67/barrel in Q3 to $63/barrel. The medium - term strategy is mainly to short on rallies, but there are geopolitical risks around the Iran nuclear negotiation and supply disruption risks from Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities [1]. - Fuel oil is following the downward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil has weak demand (delayed power generation demand and potential weakening of bunker demand due to tariffs) and sufficient supply (increased Middle - East arrivals and stable Russian shipments). Geopolitical risks may support high - sulfur prices in the short - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has reduced inflow of Western arbitrage cargoes, but the shutdown of a Nigerian RFCC device may push low - sulfur oil to Asia. The third batch of export quotas is lower than expected, but the quota utilization rate is low, so the impact on supply and demand is limited [2]. - Asphalt has a relatively small decline among oil products. The weekly shipment volume has increased significantly. There is pre - holiday rush - work demand in the north. The October production plans of refineries show a significant year - on - year increase. The overall inventory level has decreased, and the futures price shows a slightly bullish consolidation pattern [2]. - The self - use of liquefied petroleum gas in refineries has increased, squeezing the external supply. Typhoon weather affects imports in the South China region, and the arrival volume in the East China region is still low. The overall consumption has increased slightly. The marginal improvement in supply and demand and the expected improvement in import cost support the market price floor, and the LPG market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The bearish trend in the crude oil market has not ended, and the estimated Q4 average price of Brent crude oil will drop from $67/barrel in Q3 to $63/barrel. The medium - term strategy is to short on rallies, and short positions should be combined with out - of - the - money call options due to geopolitical and supply disruption risks [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: Demand is weak, and supply is sufficient, but geopolitical risks may support prices in the short - term [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Western arbitrage cargo inflow has decreased, but Nigerian factors may push low - sulfur oil to Asia. Export quotas have limited impact on supply and demand [2]. Asphalt - The decline is relatively small among oil products. The weekly shipment volume has increased. There is pre - holiday rush - work demand in the north. The October production plan shows a year - on - year increase. The overall inventory has decreased, and the futures price is in a slightly bullish consolidation pattern [2]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Refinery self - use has increased, squeezing external supply. Typhoon affects imports in the South China region, and the East China arrival volume is low. Overall consumption has increased slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [3].