Core Viewpoint - Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei rejected U.S. President Trump's proposal to restart nuclear negotiations, dismissing Trump's claims about the destruction of Iran's nuclear capabilities [1][3]. Group 1: Khamenei's Response - Khamenei stated that a deal accompanied by coercion and predetermined outcomes is not a transaction but rather an imposition and bullying [3]. - He emphasized that U.S. interference regarding Iran's nuclear facilities is inappropriate, erroneous, and coercive [3]. Group 2: Context of Negotiations - Trump suggested that a peace agreement between Washington and Tehran would be beneficial following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas [3]. - Prior to this, Tehran and Washington had engaged in five rounds of indirect nuclear negotiations, which ended with U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June [3].

Group 1 - The Supreme Leader of Iran, Khamenei, rejected the proposal from U.S. President Trump to restart nuclear negotiations [1][3] - Khamenei refuted Trump's claim that "the U.S. has destroyed Iran's nuclear capabilities," asserting that Iran's nuclear capabilities still exist despite the assassination of some nuclear scientists [3] - Khamenei emphasized that Iran will not yield to external pressures and will not agree to any imposed agreements [3] Group 2 - Khamenei stated that Iran still possesses sufficient missile stockpiles and can strike enemies at any time [3]

Core Viewpoint - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei rejected U.S. President Trump's proposal to resume nuclear negotiations, asserting that Iran's nuclear capabilities remain intact despite U.S. claims of their destruction [1] Group 1: Iran's Nuclear Capabilities - Khamenei criticized U.S. interference in Iran's nuclear industry as illegal and erroneous, emphasizing that Iran's nuclear capabilities are still present despite the assassination of some nuclear scientists [1] - He stated that Iran will not yield to external pressures or agree to any imposed agreements [1] Group 2: Military Readiness - Khamenei highlighted that Iran possesses sufficient missile stockpiles and can strike enemies at any time [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer short - term bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [4][5] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance in the multi - empty trend and poor operability on the market [4][5] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term balance in the multi - empty trend and poor operability on the market [4][5] - Asphalt: ★★★, showing a clearer short - term bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [4][5] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balance in the multi - empty trend and poor operability on the market [4][5] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market's medium - term bearish trend continues, and prices are expected to decline. Products such as fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and liquefied petroleum gas will be affected by the crude oil market and their own fundamentals, showing different trends [1][2][3] Summary by Product Crude Oil - The SC11 contract fell 2.3% today. The agreement between the Iraqi government and the Kurdish Autonomous Region to resume exports of 230,000 barrels per day pressured the market. The market's supply - demand surplus will increase in Q4 this year and Q1 next year, with surpluses of 1.64 million barrels per day and 2.67 million barrels per day respectively. The average price of Brent is expected to drop from $68 per barrel in Q3 to $63 per barrel, and the average price of SC from 500 yuan per barrel to about 465 yuan per barrel. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of combining high - level short positions and call options [1] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - For high - sulfur fuel oil, demand has declined, Chinese imports in August decreased significantly month - on - month, and the summer power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa has subsided. Although the Singapore high - sulfur inventory has decreased, it remains high. The fundamentals have limited impact on prices, but concerns about supply support high - sulfur valuations. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply was pressured due to the RFCC device failure in Nigeria, but this negative factor has been somewhat digested. Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils will follow crude oil and maintain a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in Iran, Russia, and Ukraine [2] Asphalt - The latest weekly shipment volume increased significantly month - on - month. There is a pre - holiday rush demand in the northern regions. The initial production plans of refineries in October show a significant year - on - year increase and little month - on - month change. The factory inventory remained stable month - on - month, the social inventory decreased by 57,000 tons, and the overall inventory level decreased month - on - month. The asphalt futures price is in an oscillatory consolidation pattern with support below [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Crude oil led the decline in oil product futures, and LPG slightly followed. The refineries' increased self - use of liquefied gas squeezed the external supply, causing the commodity volume to decline compared with last week. Typhoon weather in the South China region affected the import arrival, and the import arrival volume in East China increased month - on - month but remained at a low level. The combustion demand was stable, the chemical consumption of olefin C4 and propane decreased while the chemical consumption of butane increased, and the overall consumption increased slightly. It is expected that the LPG market will mainly oscillate at the bottom [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] Report's Core Views - The bearish trend in the crude oil market continues, with the estimated average price of Brent crude oil in Q4 dropping from $67/barrel in Q3 to $63/barrel. The medium - term strategy is mainly to short on rallies, but there are geopolitical risks around the Iran nuclear negotiation and supply disruption risks from Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities [1]. - Fuel oil is following the downward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil has weak demand (delayed power generation demand and potential weakening of bunker demand due to tariffs) and sufficient supply (increased Middle - East arrivals and stable Russian shipments). Geopolitical risks may support high - sulfur prices in the short - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has reduced inflow of Western arbitrage cargoes, but the shutdown of a Nigerian RFCC device may push low - sulfur oil to Asia. The third batch of export quotas is lower than expected, but the quota utilization rate is low, so the impact on supply and demand is limited [2]. - Asphalt has a relatively small decline among oil products. The weekly shipment volume has increased significantly. There is pre - holiday rush - work demand in the north. The October production plans of refineries show a significant year - on - year increase. The overall inventory level has decreased, and the futures price shows a slightly bullish consolidation pattern [2]. - The self - use of liquefied petroleum gas in refineries has increased, squeezing the external supply. Typhoon weather affects imports in the South China region, and the arrival volume in the East China region is still low. The overall consumption has increased slightly. The marginal improvement in supply and demand and the expected improvement in import cost support the market price floor, and the LPG market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The bearish trend in the crude oil market has not ended, and the estimated Q4 average price of Brent crude oil will drop from $67/barrel in Q3 to $63/barrel. The medium - term strategy is to short on rallies, and short positions should be combined with out - of - the - money call options due to geopolitical and supply disruption risks [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: Demand is weak, and supply is sufficient, but geopolitical risks may support prices in the short - term [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Western arbitrage cargo inflow has decreased, but Nigerian factors may push low - sulfur oil to Asia. Export quotas have limited impact on supply and demand [2]. Asphalt - The decline is relatively small among oil products. The weekly shipment volume has increased. There is pre - holiday rush - work demand in the north. The October production plan shows a year - on - year increase. The overall inventory has decreased, and the futures price is in a slightly bullish consolidation pattern [2]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Refinery self - use has increased, squeezing external supply. Typhoon affects imports in the South China region, and the East China arrival volume is low. Overall consumption has increased slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [3].

Core Viewpoint - Iran's First Vice President, Aref, stated that Iran is open to direct nuclear negotiations with the U.S. if conditions are suitable, but finds the U.S. demand for Iran to completely abandon uranium enrichment to be absurd [1] Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - Iran has expressed willingness to build mutual trust and prepare for negotiations under "balanced conditions" [1] - Since April, five rounds of indirect negotiations mediated by Oman have taken place, but significant disagreements remain on several core issues [1] - The sixth round of talks, scheduled for June 15, was canceled due to an Israeli attack on Iran [1] Group 2: Historical Context - In 2015, Iran reached a comprehensive nuclear agreement with the U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China, and Germany [1] - The U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in 2018 and subsequently reinstated and escalated unilateral sanctions against Iran [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Gold and silver are both given a ★★★ rating, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities at present [1] Group 2: Core Views - Today, precious metals are oscillating with a slight upward trend. Recently, global geopolitical risks have cooled down, risk sentiment is positive, the US economy is resilient, and a work plan for stabilizing growth in key industries such as non-ferrous metals in China is about to be introduced. Industrial products are rising excitedly in rotation, there is insufficient upward driving force for gold, and there is still room for the gold-silver ratio to decline. The uncertainty before the deadline of US tariff policy remains high, risk sentiment is prone to fluctuations, and precious metals are mainly in an oscillating and wait-and-see state [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Content Tariff - The US Commerce Secretary is confident of reaching an agreement with the EU, and small countries need to pay a 10% benchmark tariff starting from August 1st. The EU is preparing a retaliatory plan under the tough US trade stance. Trump has increased pressure on the EU, with the minimum tariff possibly rising to 15%-20%. The US-Japan trade agreement is still within the "realm of possibility", and the Pakistani Finance Minister is in the US to promote the signing of a trade agreement [2] Fed - Trump believes that high interest rates are "killing the real estate market" and has reiterated that interest rates should be lowered to 1%. An insider said that Treasury Secretary Bessent advised Trump not to remove Powell. Waller refused to comment on whether he would hold a different opinion at the July meeting and said he would accept if the president asked him to be the Fed Chairman. Goolsbee is "slightly worried" that tariffs are pushing up commodity inflation and expects interest rates to drop significantly in the next year [2] Iran Nuclear Negotiations - Iran has agreed to hold a new round of negotiations with three European countries at the deputy foreign minister level in Istanbul on the 25th. Putin met with a senior advisor to the Iranian Supreme Leader to discuss the Iran nuclear issue. Trump reiterated that all three Iranian nuclear facilities have been completely destroyed [2]

Economic Developments - The U.S. Commerce Secretary expressed confidence in reaching an agreement with the EU, with a baseline tariff of 10% set to begin on August 1 [11][12] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce anticipates that the total retail sales of consumer goods in China will exceed 50 trillion yuan this year [14][18] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release a growth stabilization plan for ten key industries, including steel and petrochemicals [14][15] Market Performance - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.155% to 98.46, while U.S. Treasury yields declined across the board, with the 10-year yield at 4.423% and the 2-year yield at 3.88% [3][4] - International oil prices experienced volatility, with WTI crude oil closing at $66 per barrel, down 0.47%, and Brent crude at $68.59 per barrel, down 0.45% [4][8] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 1.33% to close at 24,825.66, with a trading volume of 238.69 billion yuan [5][8] Corporate News - The court hearing for the Wahaha family property dispute is scheduled for August 1 in Hong Kong [16] - The Chinese government is taking measures to combat the smuggling and export of strategic minerals [14][18] - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the U.S. approval of Nvidia's H20 chip sales to China, emphasizing the need for a cooperative environment for mutual benefit [14][18]

Group 1: Gaza Conflict - New round of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza is on the verge of collapse according to Palestinian officials [3] - Israeli military has issued strict restrictions prohibiting fishing and maritime activities in the coastal areas of Gaza [3] - 86% of Gaza has been designated as Israeli military zones or forced evacuation areas by UN agencies [3] - Israeli officials claim that Hamas is undermining the ceasefire negotiation process [3] - Israeli airstrikes targeted Hamas underground facilities in northern Gaza [3] - Palestinian media reports indicate that Israeli attacks in multiple locations in Gaza have resulted in at least 60 deaths [3] - Israeli military actions in Gaza have led to over 70 deaths as of July 12 [3] Group 2: Iran's Position - Iranian Foreign Minister states that cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) continues, but Iran will adopt different forms due to recent developments [2] - Iran is carefully evaluating options for negotiations with the United States, emphasizing that Washington must provide guarantees if talks resume [2] - Reports from The Wall Street Journal indicate that President Trump hinted at supporting Israeli strikes against Iran if Iran seeks to develop nuclear weapons [2] - Iranian Supreme Leader's advisor mentions that Iran has received information from the U.S. regarding the resumption of nuclear negotiations [3] - Iranian Foreign Minister asserts that Iran will continue to uphold its right to uranium enrichment [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. Middle East envoy, Wittekov, plans to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif in Oslo next week to restart nuclear negotiations, marking the first direct talks since military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities ordered by Trump [1] - Iranian officials have expressed openness to negotiations with Washington, but reiterated that Iran has no plans to halt uranium enrichment [1][2] - The recent military actions have resulted in significant casualties, with reports of dozens of Iranian military officials and nuclear scientists killed, and nearly 1,000 total casualties, including children [2] Group 2 - Iran has been enriching uranium to 60%, close to the 90% needed for nuclear weapons, raising concerns from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) [3] - Iranian officials maintain that their uranium enrichment policy remains unchanged and assert their right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) [3][4] - There are uncertainties regarding the whereabouts of 880 pounds of high-enriched uranium, with Iranian officials declining to comment on its status [4]