Core Viewpoint - The United Nations Environment Programme's report indicates that global warming remains a severe issue, with current climate commitments under the Paris Agreement only slightly alleviating the trend of rising global temperatures, leading to increased climate risks and damages [1]. Group 1: Climate Goals and Emission Reduction - The Paris Agreement aims to limit the increase in global average temperature to within 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with efforts to keep it within 1.5 degrees Celsius [1]. - To achieve these temperature goals, global greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced by 35% and 55% from 2019 levels by 2035 [1]. - The report suggests that without significant emission reductions, global warming could exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius within the next decade [1]. Group 2: Expected Temperature Increases - If countries fully implement their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), global warming is projected to reach between 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius this century, while current policies could lead to a rise of 2.8 degrees Celsius [1]. - These projections show slight improvements compared to last year's report, but emphasize the need for faster and more substantial greenhouse gas reductions to mitigate climate risks [1]. Group 3: Technological Capabilities - The report highlights that since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, the necessary low-carbon technologies for significant emission reductions are available, with the wind and solar industries driving down application costs [2]. - This indicates that the international community has the capability to accelerate climate action if there is a collective commitment [2].

Core Insights - A recent study indicates that Greenland is shrinking in size and drifting slowly northwest due to global warming and other factors [1][3] Group 1: Research Findings - The study, conducted by researchers from the Technical University of Denmark and published in the journal "Geophysical Research Letters," analyzed data from 58 global navigation satellite system monitoring stations around Greenland [3] - Greenland is drifting northwest at a rate of approximately 2 centimeters per year, with some areas experiencing uplift while others are sinking [3] - The horizontal crustal movement in Greenland is influenced by three geological forces: tectonic plate interactions, reduced pressure on the bedrock due to glacier melting, and long-term rebound from the last ice age [3] Group 2: Climate Impact - The movement of Greenland highlights how climate change-induced glacier melting is reshaping the surface and affecting geological foundations [3] - Greenland's ice sheet is one of the world's largest freshwater resources, with enough water to potentially raise global sea levels by 7.4 meters [3] - According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, a 1-centimeter rise in sea level puts approximately 6 million people at risk of coastal flooding globally [3]

Core Insights - The latest climate commitments under the Paris Agreement are insufficient to significantly mitigate global temperature rise this century, leading to increased climate risks and damages [1][2] Group 1: Climate Goals and Emission Reduction - To meet the Paris Agreement's temperature control targets, global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 35% and 55% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels [1] - If countries fully implement their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), global warming is projected to reach 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius, while current policies could lead to a rise of 2.8 degrees Celsius [1] - The report emphasizes the need for faster and more substantial greenhouse gas reductions to minimize climate risks and damages, aiming to return to the 1.5 degrees Celsius target by 2100, despite significant challenges [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, the necessary low-carbon technologies for significant emission reductions are available, with the wind and solar industries driving down application costs [2] - This indicates that if the international community is determined, it has the capability to accelerate climate action [2]

美媒称，虽然一些私营公司已经押注这个解决气候问题的前沿领域，但因为技术、道德和环境的巨大挑 战使这些项目并未进入大规模实操层面。首先，改变太阳辐射将如何影响全球天气系统难以预测，一次 错误的计算可能会扰乱降雨或降温。另外，如何分配太阳也会产生地缘政治风险，甚至引发战争。 但马斯克在回帖中称，依靠人工智能的计算，可以对星座实现精确、公平的调整。Interesting Engineering称，马斯克作为太空公司SpaceX的首席执行官，他的表态，引发了大众对SpaceX可能进入 这个前沿领域的联想。 片构 11月3日，经常在网上用"暴论"引发争议的美国首富埃隆·马斯克在社交媒体上发帖称，建造一个大型太 阳能人工智能卫星星座就可以解决全球变暖问题。马斯克这种"遮住太阳"的设想立刻引发了网友大范围 讨论。 马斯克发帖称："一个大型太阳能人工智能卫星星座，可以通过对到达地球的太阳能进行微小调整来阻 止全球变暖。"这个帖子发出10几个小时后，转发已经达到1.2万次，评论超过2.5万条。据美国科技网站 Interesting Engineering介绍，马斯克提出的这个概念被称为天基太阳辐射管理，原理是通过在地球轨道 上 ...

Group 1 - A recent avalanche in the northern Alps of South Tyrol, Italy, resulted in the death of 3 German tourists and 2 others missing, highlighting the increased risks associated with mountain activities due to unstable snow conditions and rising temperatures [1] - The region has experienced multiple avalanche incidents, including a glacier collapse on Marmolada Peak in July 2022, which resulted in 9 fatalities, indicating a trend of increasing danger in popular skiing areas [2] - Climate change is significantly impacting winter sports, with a study showing that global glaciers have shrunk by over 5% since 2000, losing approximately 7 trillion tons of ice, contributing to a 2 cm rise in sea levels [4] Group 2 - The Italian National Research Council (CNR) warns that if global warming continues, the Marmolada glacier could completely melt within the next 25 to 30 years, further threatening winter sports and tourism in the region [4] - The United Nations World Meteorological Organization reported that 26 out of 616 World Cup events for skiing and snowboarding were canceled due to weather conditions during the 2023-2024 season, reflecting the adverse effects of climate change on winter sports events [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of a shorter autumn season in China, highlighting the late onset of autumn and the early arrival of winter due to climatic changes and global warming [1][9][17]. Summary by Sections Autumn Onset and Duration - The definition of "meteorological autumn" is based on a sliding average temperature remaining below or equal to 22°C for five consecutive days [2][4]. - This year, many regions in southern China experienced a delayed onset of autumn, with Nanjing recording its latest autumn start on October 18, marking a historical record [8][10]. Trends in Autumn Season - Data indicates a trend of autumn arriving later and leaving earlier across various regions in China, with significant delays noted in cities like Zhengzhou, Ningbo, and Shenzhen, where autumn has been pushed back by over 10 days [9][10][14]. - In contrast, northern regions have seen an accelerated onset of winter, with cities like Shijiazhuang experiencing a record-short autumn of only 31 days [12][14]. Regional Variations - The duration of autumn varies significantly across China, with northern areas typically having shorter autumns (around 50 days) compared to southwestern regions, which can have autumns lasting 70 to 80 days [16]. - For instance, Guiyang has the longest autumn, lasting an average of 83 days, while Chengdu follows closely with 78 days [16]. Impact of Global Warming - The shortening of autumn is attributed to global warming, which alters atmospheric circulation patterns, leading to prolonged summer heat and earlier winter conditions [17][18]. - This climatic shift poses health risks during the transitional period between autumn and winter, particularly for individuals with chronic diseases [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the uncertainty surrounding whether this winter will be cold or warm, emphasizing that definitive conclusions can only be drawn after the season ends [2][4]. Summary by Sections Climate Predictions - The determination of a cold or warm winter is based on the average temperature over three months, with specific criteria for single stations, regional, and national assessments [2]. - Since the 1990s, China has experienced six cold winters, all occurring before 2012 [2]. Current Weather Conditions - Recent monitoring indicates that average temperatures in regions such as northern Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai, and Jianghan are 1°C to 3°C lower than the same period in previous years, with some areas experiencing drops of 4°C to 5°C [3]. Influencing Factors - The current state of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean is cooler than usual, potentially leading to a La Niña phenomenon, which historically correlates with lower temperatures in China during winter [4]. - Despite the likelihood of a colder winter, global warming has led to instances of warmer winters even during La Niña years, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting winter temperatures [4]. Extreme Weather Events - The article highlights that extreme cold waves can occur even in warmer winters, as public perception is often influenced by significant temperature fluctuations rather than average temperatures [4][6]. - The phenomenon of extreme cold waves is explained by the weakening of the westerly winds due to global warming, allowing polar air to move southward more easily [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unpredictability of winter temperatures in China, highlighting that while this winter is expected to be warmer overall, significant fluctuations between cold and warm periods are anticipated [1][4]. Summary by Sections Winter Temperature Predictions - The classification of a winter as "cold" or "warm" is determined post-season based on average temperatures across various meteorological stations, with specific criteria for national, regional, and single-station assessments [2][3]. - The article notes that since the 1990s, China has experienced six cold winters, all occurring before 2012 [2]. Current Temperature Trends - Recent monitoring indicates that average temperatures in regions such as northern Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai, and Jianghan have been 1°C to 3°C lower than the same period in previous years, with some areas experiencing drops of 4°C to 5°C [3]. Influencing Factors - The article mentions that the current state of the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean is cooler than usual, which may lead to a La Niña event, typically associated with lower temperatures in China during winter [4]. - However, the impact of global warming has led to instances of warmer winters even during La Niña years, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting winter temperatures [4][6]. Extreme Weather Events - The article explains that despite the overall warming trend, extreme cold events can still occur due to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, particularly the weakening of the westerly winds that usually contain polar air [5][6]. - This phenomenon suggests that global warming can coexist with severe cold spells, leading to more pronounced temperature fluctuations during winter [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the strongest cold air mass of the year, which began on October 15, on various regions in China, raising concerns about whether this winter will be particularly cold [1] Group 1: Weather Predictions - The chief forecaster from the National Climate Center, Zhang Daqian, indicates that current numerical models predict that this winter's temperatures in China will be close to or slightly warmer than the historical average, but with significant fluctuations between cold and warm periods [3] - There is a notable trend of increasing average winter temperatures in China due to global warming, with the Arctic experiencing a more pronounced temperature rise compared to tropical and subtropical regions [5] Group 2: Implications of Temperature Fluctuations - The article emphasizes the need to closely monitor the significant temperature swings, including strong cold and warm spells, as they may adversely affect production and daily life [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of a strong cold air mass sweeping across China, leading to concerns about the upcoming winter temperatures and the characteristics of seasonal temperature fluctuations in the context of global warming [1][3]. Group 1: Winter Temperature Predictions - The National Climate Center predicts that this winter, temperatures in China will be close to or slightly warmer than the historical average, but with significant fluctuations between cold and warm periods [1][3]. - The warming trend in winter temperatures is evident, with the Arctic experiencing a more pronounced temperature increase compared to tropical and subtropical regions, leading to more extreme temperature variations in China [3]. Group 2: Seasonal Changes - The transition from autumn to winter is typically rapid in many regions of China, contributing to the perception that autumn is shorter [4][7]. - Statistical data indicates that autumn has indeed shortened in many cities, particularly in eastern regions, with cities like Hefei, Guangzhou, and Nanning experiencing a reduction of over 10 days in autumn length compared to historical data [9]. Group 3: Overall Seasonal Length Trends - Despite the perception of a longer winter, most regions in China are experiencing a shortening of winter length due to climate change, with a slight delay in the onset of winter and an earlier arrival of spring [11].