Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has diminished, leading to a global adjustment in stock markets, with concerns about potential bubbles in the artificial intelligence sector affecting market risk appetite [1]. Market Performance - Following the Federal Reserve's October meeting, the anticipation of a December rate cut has decreased, causing disturbances in global liquidity expectations and resulting in a weak performance in overseas stock markets [1]. - The A-share market, which had already been digesting gains from the second half of the year, has also been impacted by overseas market trends, leading to a decline in short-term holding confidence and an increase in profit-taking sentiment [1]. - Last week, the market experienced consecutive adjustments with reduced trading volume, as the Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 60-day moving average and left a significant downward gap [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index also saw substantial adjustments, losing the 60-day moving average and widening its decline [1]. Trading Volume and Market Trends - The average daily trading volume for both markets last week was approximately 1.8 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [1]. - Market hotspots were primarily concentrated in defensive sectors, while small-cap and technology stocks led the decline [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index faced technical resistance, leading to a downward adjustment and returning to the consolidation range observed in August and September [1]. - The index encountered technical resistance at the end of the previous week, resulting in a sudden downward adjustment that continued into the following week, breaking through multiple short- and medium-term moving averages [1]. - Currently, the index has returned to the horizontal consolidation range from August and September, and it is advised to closely monitor the effectiveness of the previous support levels [1].

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market has seen a significant decline in November, with the overall market cap dropping by $750 billion to within $3 trillion[2] - Bitcoin has fluctuated below $90,000, currently at $86,500, marking a nearly 30% drop from its peak on October 6[2] - Altcoins have experienced even greater declines, with most altcoin/BTC trading pairs showing weak performance[2] Economic Factors - The current downturn is attributed more to macroeconomic factors and profit-taking rather than structural risks within the industry, unlike the extreme bear market of 2022[3] - Recent comments from multiple Federal Reserve officials have shifted market sentiment towards a cautious stance ahead of the December meeting, with a 32% implied probability of a rate cut[4][5] Bitcoin Technical Analysis - Bitcoin has not shown signs of a bottoming out, with support levels moving down after breaking below $94,000[8] - Long-term holders are continuing to reduce their positions, while short-term holders are facing ongoing losses[8] Market Sentiment - The cryptocurrency and stock market fear and greed indices remain in the extreme fear zone, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors[13] ETF Trends - Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have recorded continuous net outflows since early November, with significant redemptions from major funds like BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF[8][18] Key Metrics - Major cryptocurrencies have seen substantial declines, with Bitcoin down 16.3% bi-weekly and 21.6% monthly, while Ethereum has dropped 17.7% bi-weekly and 27.9% monthly[16] Regulatory Developments - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has issued new guidelines allowing licensed platforms to share liquidity with overseas platforms, marking a shift towards more integrated regulation[24] Institutional Movements - Coinbase has launched a savings account in the UK offering a 3.75% interest rate, while Block reported $1.97 billion in Bitcoin-related revenue for Q3, accounting for nearly one-third of total revenue[19] Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain under pressure until new capital inflows or clear macro catalysts emerge, with Bitcoin potentially testing the $84,000 to $85,000 range[13]

Market Analysis - The A-share market continues to experience fluctuations, primarily due to the Shanghai Composite Index's struggle around the critical 4000-point level, which has seen repeated testing and volatility [1][3] - The long upper shadow formed last Friday indicates significant selling pressure in the 4030-4035 point range, making it difficult for the market to break through without sufficient trading volume, leading to a technical pullback [1][3] - A notable market characteristic is the divergence in performance, where while some large-cap stocks have shown stability, most small and mid-cap stocks are underperforming, resulting in a poor overall profit effect and failing to attract new capital [1][3] - The ChiNext and STAR Market, seen as indicators of market risk appetite, have been in continuous decline, with larger drops than the main board, reflecting concerns over the technology growth sector and negatively impacting overall market sentiment [1][3] - Recent adjustments in the NASDAQ, particularly concerning technology stocks, are likely to influence related sectors in the A-share market [3] - Uncertainties in the economic environment are impacting market risk appetite, contributing to the overall market sentiment [3] - Market speculation regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in December is affecting investor expectations for global liquidity [3] Strategic Outlook - Despite the ongoing fluctuations and resistance to breaking through key levels, the current market adjustment is viewed as a healthy phase that could extend the overall bullish trend [3] - The short-term outlook remains focused on the 4000-point range, while the long-term perspective continues to be optimistic and bullish [3]