1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil is expected to rebound due to new sanctions on Iran, compensation cuts by some OPEC+ members, and easing of the tariff war [1][2][3] - LPG is expected to rebound as the cost side provides support and the basis is at a high level [1][5][7] - L is expected to be weak as the device maintains high operation, upstream inventory accumulates, and there is pressure from new device production [1][9][11] - PP is expected to be weak with short - term abundant supply and long - term pressure from device production and falling crude oil prices [1][12][14] - PVC is expected to be weak as the falling cost of calcium carbide outweighs the decline in social inventory [1][15][17] - PX is expected to be weak as the improvement in supply - demand is limited and inventory is high [1][18][19] - PTA is expected to be weak with supply pressure relieved by planned maintenance but weakening downstream demand and high inventory [1][21][22] - Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a short - term shock adjustment as supply is reduced by planned maintenance and import decline, while demand may weaken [1][24] - Bottle chips are expected to be weak with increased supply, seasonal weak demand but good export prospects and rising inventory [1][25][26] - Glass is expected to be weak as it enters the delivery game period with increased delivery capacity and limited terminal demand improvement [1][27][28] - Soda ash is expected to be weak with increasing supply, stable demand, and accumulating inventory [1][29][30] - Asphalt is expected to rebound as the crack spread is high and the cost side (crude oil) rebounds [1] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 3.53%, Brent up 1.86%, and SC up 1.53% [2] - **Basic Logic**: New sanctions on Iran and compensation cuts by some OPEC+ members drive short - term price rebound, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the price fluctuates between 55 - 65 dollars due to the tariff war, new energy impact, and OPEC+ expansion. In the short - term, sell bull spread options, and focus on the range of 490 - 510 yuan for SC [4] LPG - **Market Performance**: On April 17, the PG main contract closed at 4480 yuan/ton, up 1.24% [6] - **Basic Logic**: The basis has converged but remains high, and the overall valuation is low. After the oil price rebounds, there is upward momentum [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly go long, or buy call options or sell put options, and focus on the range of 4450 - 4550 yuan [8] L - **Market Performance**: The 5 - 9 spread increased by 13 yuan/ton day - on - day [10] - **Basic Logic**: New production capacity has been put into operation this year, and the import situation varies. The agricultural film season is ending, resulting in weak short - term performance and long - term bearishness [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short on rallies, and focus on the range of 7100 - 7200 yuan [11] PP - **Market Performance**: The L - PP05 spread increased by 16 yuan/ton day - on - day, and the PP - 3MA05 spread decreased by 38 yuan/ton [13] - **Basic Logic**: New PP devices have been put into operation, and there is pressure on product exports. Short - term supply is abundant, and long - term prospects are bearish [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term wait - and - see, medium - term go short on rallies, and focus on the range of 7050 - 7200 yuan [14] PVC - **Market Performance**: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton [16] - **Basic Logic**: New devices were put into operation in January. Although demand has a seasonal recovery, the falling cost of calcium carbide leads to short - term weakness [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term wait - and - see, go long on pullbacks, and focus on the range of 4950 - 5100 yuan [17] PX - **Market Performance**: On April 11, the spot price in East China was 6865 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX05 contract closed at 6054 yuan/ton (- 50) [18] - **Basic Logic**: Devices are under planned maintenance, but demand from PTA is expected to weaken, and inventory is high. The price follows cost fluctuations [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of 6000 - 6120 yuan [20] PTA - **Market Performance**: On April 11, the spot price in East China was 4310 yuan/ton (+ 80), and the TA05 contract closed at 4358 yuan/ton (+ 8) [21] - **Basic Logic**: Planned maintenance eases supply pressure, but downstream demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is high. The price follows cost fluctuations [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of 4250 - 4330 yuan [23] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Performance**: On April 11, the spot price in East China was 4315 yuan/ton (- 15), and the EG05 contract closed at 4279 yuan/ton (+ 8) [24] - **Basic Logic**: Devices are under planned maintenance, and import volume is low, but downstream demand may weaken. Cost support is limited [24] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of 4080 - 4130 yuan [24] Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On April 11, the spot price of water - grade PET bottle chips in East China was 5600 yuan/ton (+ 180), and the PR main contract closed at 5596 yuan/ton (+ 248) [25] - **Basic Logic**: Device operation increases supply. Although it is the off - season for soft drinks, export is good, and inventory has increased [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of 5520 - 5600 yuan [26] Glass - **Market Performance**: The spot price in North China increased, the futures price was weak, the main basis widened, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [27] - **Basic Logic**: The real - estate downturn still affects demand. Supply is low, demand has a seasonal recovery, and inventory has decreased. The delivery game suppresses the near - month contract [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of 1130 - 1170 yuan [28] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The spot price of heavy soda ash was partially reduced, the futures price was weakly volatile, the basis fluctuated slightly, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecast remained unchanged [30] - **Basic Logic**: The market is affected by macro - sentiment. Supply increases due to device operation and new capacity, demand is stable, and inventory accumulates [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the pressure of the 10 - day moving average [30] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Not detailed in the content - **Basic Logic**: The crack spread is high, the cost side (crude oil) rebounds but lacks upward momentum, and the basis weakens [1] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of 3300 - 3400 yuan [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual investment outlooks for different varieties: - **Bullish**: Crude oil (rebound) [1][2] - **Bearish**: PX (weak), bottle chips (weak), glass (weak), methanol (bearish) [1][18][25] - **Consolidation**: LPG (consolidation), L (sideways), PP (sideways), PVC (sideways), PTA (sideways), soda ash (consolidation), urea (sideways) [1] - **Slightly Bullish**: Ethylene glycol (slightly bullish) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various chemical products, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, bottle chips, glass, soda ash, methanol, and urea. It provides market outlooks, basic logics, and trading strategies for each product based on factors such as supply - demand balance, cost, and macro - economic environment [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Outlook**: Rebound [1][2] - **Basic Logic**: Tariff war eases, OPEC + plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May 2025. EIA expects global crude oil demand growth to slow. US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels to 442.3 million barrels in the week ending April 4 [4]. - **Strategy**: Long - term, due to tariff wars, new energy impact, and OPEC + expansion, supply will be in excess, and the oil price center will shift down. Short - term, recommend selling put options. SC price range to watch is [465 - 480] [5]. LPG - **Market Outlook**: Consolidation [1] - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end oil prices are in low - level consolidation. LPG fundamentals are slightly positive, with high basis. PDH profit improved, and port inventories decreased [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the cost - end oil price to stabilize. Suggest temporary wait - and - see, then buy call options or sell put options. PG price range to watch is [4350 - 4450] [8]. L - **Market Outlook**: Sideways [1] - **Basic Logic**: Spot price decline slows, import is expected to shrink. Short - term, it follows the cost - end. Long - term, high new - capacity pressure and falling oil prices make the rebound bearish [11]. - **Strategy**: Go short on rallies. L price range to watch is [7150 - 7300] [11]. PP - **Market Outlook**: Sideways [1] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term supply is abundant. Anti - sanctions may reduce PDH supply, but oil - based production enthusiasm increases. Long - term, high new - capacity pressure and falling oil prices make the rebound bearish [14]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see, medium - term go short on rallies. PP price range to watch is [7150 - 7300] [14]. PVC - **Market Outlook**: Sideways [1] - **Basic Logic**: Spring maintenance starts, social inventories decline. Low - valuation on the futures market is supported. Pay attention to spring maintenance intensity and macro - policies [17]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see, go long on pullbacks. V price range to watch is [4900 - 5000] [17]. PX - **Market Outlook**: Weak [1] - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, but demand from PTA devices (also under maintenance) is weak. Crude oil price is expected to fall, and PX inventory is high [19]. - **Strategy**: PX price range to watch is [5920 - 6080] [20]. PTA - **Market Outlook**: Sideways [1] - **Basic Logic**: PTA devices are under planned maintenance, reducing supply pressure. However, downstream polyester demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is high. Crude oil price is expected to fall [22]. - **Strategy**: TA price range to watch is [4250 - 4360] [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Outlook**: Slightly Bullish [1] - **Basic Logic**: Devices are under planned maintenance, and import volume is low. Demand from polyester is high but may weaken. Cost support is weak, and supply is reduced due to US tariff policies [24]. - **Strategy**: EG price range to watch is [4250 - 4350] [24]. Bottle Chips - **Market Outlook**: Weak [1] - **Basic Logic**: Device capacity utilization increases, increasing supply pressure. Soft - drink consumption is in the off - season, but export is good. Inventory is rising, and cost support is weak [26]. - **Strategy**: PR price range to watch is [5550 - 5650] [26]. Glass - **Market Outlook**: Weak [1] - **Basic Logic**: Global tariff news disturbs the market. Supply is low but increasing slightly, demand recovers seasonally, and cost is falling. Inventory is decreasing, and registered warrants are increasing [28]. - **Strategy**: FG price range to watch is [1130 - 1160] [28]. Soda Ash - **Market Outlook**: Consolidation [1] - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases as some devices increase production and new capacity is released. Demand is mainly for刚需. Inventory is slightly decreasing, but pressure remains [30]. - **Strategy**: 05 contract should pay attention to the 10 - day moving average pressure. Methanol - **Market Outlook**: Bearish [1] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas device operating rates are high, increasing supply. Demand is weakening, and cost support is weak [1]. - **Strategy**: Go short on rallies. MA price range to watch is [2350 - 2400] [1]. Urea - **Market Outlook**: Sideways [1] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is high, and downstream demand is expected to weaken. However, fertilizer export is good. Inventory is seasonally decreasing but still relatively high [1]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing up. UR price range to watch is [1840 - 1890] [1].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 盘整 | 美国对部分国家暂停加征关税，关税战争风险继续释放。美国掀起全球关税战，市场担 | | | | 忧宏观经济前景，市场不断释放关税风险；OPEC+计划增产幅度超预期。SC【450-480】 | | LPG | 盘整 | 成本端油价低位盘整，液化气震荡蓄势。关税风险继续释放，油价盘整；现货偏强，基 | | | | 差处于高位；供需面多空并存，港口去库，下游 PDH 开工率下降。PG【4400-4500】 | | L | 震荡 | 原油回落，现货跌价，厂库累库，国内反制裁对供给利多驱动有限，反弹偏空。中长期， | | | | 装置投产压力偏高叠加原油下行，逢高偏空。L【7100-7300】 | | PP | 震荡 | 主力移仓换月，厂库累库，反制裁加剧 PDH 装置供给收缩预期，短期区间震荡。中长期， | | | | 装置投产压力偏高叠加原油下行，反弹偏空。PP【7100-7300】 | | PVC | 震荡 | 社库连续 5 周下降，氯碱成本支撑好转，盘面低位震荡。4-5 月常规春检陆续开始，盘面 | ...

调查：指数接近跌停的时刻，你是恐慌还是兴奋？ 熊猫不回撤 当然兴奋咯，毕竟还有几千万的im空单呢。 资水 恐慌啥？明明白白的黄金坑，部队分批入场，确定今年又是一个丰收年。 seeker24680 如果非要说的话，可能是麻木吧，心态毫无波澜。 drwangting 每到这个时候，我都是脑瓜子嗡嗡的。从来没明确观点和信心。 资水 @ziyubufen 老师，已经收盘了，想买想卖也动不了了。抽空说一下"明明白白""确定"，是从哪方面来说 的？ 从动机看， 特朗普并不是真想把税加到那么高 。 作为，中国人，虽然我亏钱了。但我还是很高兴。 因为，懂王，正在毁掉，美国的经济霸权。 2008年经济危机，其实就是西方世界衰弱的开始。而这次如果是美国总统直接导致的世界经济危 机，美国的软实力在全世界会进一步衰弱，没人会把美国当成可靠的伙伴，稳定世界的力量。 俄乌战争，打破了北约的军事神话。 巴以战争，打破了美国的道德高地。 关税战争，打破了美国的经济霸权。 10年前，我还是亲美的。但是，我亲的是正常，负责任的，维持稳定的国际秩序的美国，和中国 保持合作关系的美国。而不是，让全世界陷入混乱的美国，以中国为敌的美国。 打新交朋友 ...