Hot News - China has lodged solemn representations with the US regarding the latter's imposition of Section 301 tariffs on some Chinese semiconductor products [2] - Ukrainian President Zelensky had a good phone call with US President Trump's envoy and son - in - law, emphasizing efforts to end the conflict [2] - China's National Development and Reform Commission aims to strengthen coal supply and strategic reserves of coal - made oil and gas [2] - Iraq has lost about 4,500 megawatts of power - generation capacity due to the suspension of Iranian natural - gas supply [2] - China's relevant departments held a fertilizer supply - guarantee meeting, with PetroChina and Sinopec to sell sulfur at a flat price to key phosphate - fertilizer producers [3] Plate Performance - Key sectors to watch: Silver, Shanghai copper, coke, Shanghai nickel, PVC [4] - Night - session performance of commodity futures: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.20%, precious metals 34.70%, oilseeds 7.74%, soft commodities 3.12%, non - ferrous metals 24.89%, coal - coking - steel - ore 10.21%, energy 2.23%, chemicals 10.35%, grains 1.18%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.39% [4] Asset Performance Equity - Shanghai Composite Index: daily increase of 0.47%, monthly increase of 1.83%, annual increase of 18.14% - S&P 500: daily unchanged, monthly increase of 1.21%, annual increase of 17.86% - Hang Seng Index: daily unchanged, monthly decrease of 0.15%, annual increase of 28.71% [6] Fixed - income - 10 - year Treasury bond futures: daily decrease of 0.02%, monthly increase of 0.24%, annual decrease of 0.67% - 5 - year Treasury bond futures: daily decrease of 0.03%, monthly increase of 0.23%, annual decrease of 0.52% [6] Commodity - CRB Commodity Index: daily unchanged, monthly decrease of 0.02%, annual increase of 1.58% - WTI crude oil: daily unchanged, monthly increase of 0.17%, annual decrease of 18.66% - London spot gold: daily unchanged, monthly increase of 6.18%, annual increase of 70.70% [6] Other - US Dollar Index: daily unchanged, monthly decrease of 1.49%, annual decrease of 9.70% - CBOE Volatility Index: daily unchanged, monthly decrease of 17.61%, annual decrease of 22.36% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasizes that ensuring the supply and price stability of fertilizers is a top priority, with industry enterprises required to enhance their political awareness and fulfill their responsibilities to safeguard national food security before the spring plowing season [2][3]. Group 1: Meeting Context - The meeting was held under the guidance of the National Development and Reform Commission, organized by the China Sulfuric Acid Industry Association and the China Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Industry Association [1][2]. - Rising prices of sulfur and sulfuric acid have led to an increase in phosphate fertilizer prices, posing a potential threat to national food security [1][2]. Group 2: Key Requirements - The first requirement is to control sulfuric acid exports to prioritize domestic supply, with exporters urged to reduce export volumes and ensure that export prices do not fall below domestic prices [1][2]. - The second requirement is to prevent price increases of sulfuric acid, with all smelting acid production enterprises prohibited from raising prices arbitrarily based on the reference price from December 11 [1][2]. - The third requirement mandates that upstream and downstream enterprises strictly adhere to long-term supply agreements and not act untrustworthily for profit [1][2]. Group 3: Role of Associations - The two associations will act as a bridge to facilitate cooperation, including accurately identifying enterprise needs and forming targeted cooperation suggestions [3]. - They will establish a long-term platform for communication and project cooperation [3]. - The associations will actively communicate industry demands to regulatory authorities to seek policy support and promote deeper cooperation [3].

Group 1 - The current spring plowing preparation for fertilizers is at a critical stage, with a focus on stabilizing the supply and price of phosphate fertilizers [1] - A meeting was held to analyze the phosphate fertilizer market situation and discuss measures for supply assurance and price stabilization [1][3] - There is a consensus among key phosphate fertilizer production and circulation enterprises on the need for enhanced supply and price control measures [3] Group 2 - Recent fluctuations in the phosphate fertilizer market have negatively impacted winter storage and spring plowing preparations, attributed to rising production costs and increased short-term demand [3] - Recommendations include maintaining high production rates without reducing output, avoiding exports until August 2026, and ensuring domestic market supply [3] - Industry associations are urged to guide enterprises in conducting sales at reasonable prices and to prevent hoarding and price gouging [3] Group 3 - Sulfur prices have surged significantly, reaching a near ten-year high of 4115 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 200% [4] - China is the largest sulfur importer, with approximately 50% of its consumption relying on imports, and the sulfur production for 2024 is projected at 11.07 million tons [4] - The rise in sulfur prices poses challenges for the stability of the domestic fertilizer market, especially as the spring plowing season approaches [4][5] Group 4 - The recent spike in sulfur prices is primarily due to global supply shortages and rising external prices, with Russia's production being significantly affected [5] - The average import price of sulfur in China increased from $175.79/ton in January to $314.94/ton in October, marking a 79.21% increase [5] - The increase in sulfur prices has led to a rise in industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate prices, which saw a monthly increase of approximately 500 yuan/ton [5]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic urea prices have shown signs of stabilization in November after a period of decline, supported by increased export quotas and reserve demand [1][9]. Supply and Production - Urea production in China from January to October 2025 reached 59.08 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with October production at 5.88 million tons [2]. - The operating rate for coal-based urea production was 87.5%, up 1.8% month-on-month, while natural gas-based urea production was at 72.7%, down 0.2% month-on-month [2]. - New production capacities are expected to be added, with a total of 511,000 tons projected for 2025, representing a growth rate of 5.6% [2]. Inventory and Demand - Urea inventory levels at production facilities have decreased, with a total of 1.4836 million tons reported as of November 13, down 94,500 tons from the previous week [3]. - Port inventories are around 82,000 tons, with expectations of increased exports due to new bidding rounds and quota increases [3]. - Agricultural demand remains low, but reserve demand is expected to be released, with a recent auction resulting in the sale of 29,285 tons of urea [7]. Price Trends - As of November 18, domestic urea prices have stabilized, with the main futures price at 1,662 yuan per ton, a 3% increase for the month [1]. - International urea prices have also shown signs of stabilization, with FOB prices in China at $400 per ton, up $15 from the previous week [6]. - The average domestic urea price has fluctuated between 1,500 and 2,000 yuan per ton throughout the year, with a central price of 1,750 yuan per ton [9]. Market Outlook - The recent increase in coal prices may provide some cost support for urea prices, but new production facilities are expected to increase supply pressure in the fourth quarter [9]. - Although export quotas have improved market conditions, domestic agricultural demand has significantly decreased compared to earlier in the year [9]. - The overall supply-demand balance for domestic urea remains loose, indicating limited potential for sustained price rebounds [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is taking measures to ensure stable supply and pricing of fertilizers during the spring farming season, with a focus on increasing production capacity and market regulation [1][5]. Group 1: Fertilizer Supply and Production - National fertilizer companies have ramped up production in response to government policies, leading to a robust supply-demand situation in the market [1][3]. - In the first quarter, Hualu Hengrui, a major nitrogen fertilizer producer, reported a year-on-year increase of 29,220 tons in the production of urea, ammonium bicarbonate, and ammonium sulfate, achieving a growth rate of 27% [2]. - Xingfa Group, a phosphorus fertilizer producer, supplied 133,000 tons of fertilizers to the domestic market, covering key agricultural regions [2]. Group 2: Price Trends and Market Challenges - Urea prices have been declining, with the wholesale price index down 16.53% year-on-year as of March 31, indicating a challenging market environment for producers [4]. - The urea futures price has fluctuated significantly, reaching a low of 1,620 yuan/ton in January 2023, despite a recent recovery [4]. - The nitrogen fertilizer industry is facing a "high production, high inventory, low profit" dilemma, with concerns about oversupply as new production capacities come online [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association predicts an increase in urea production capacity by 6.6 million tons by 2025, potentially leading to an oversupply situation [5]. - Industry leaders are calling for better data forecasting from relevant authorities to aid in production planning and maintain market stability [5]. - Companies are urged to adhere to national policies to avoid market disruptions caused by price manipulation [5].