上周，国际原油价格偏强震荡。截至2026年1月2日，纽约商品交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油期货(WTI)主 力合约结算价格为57.32美元/桶，较2025年12月26日上升1.02%；洲际交易所布伦特原油期货(Brent)主力 合约结算价格为60.75美元/桶，较2025年12月26日上升0.18%。 从现货市场看，涨幅前五名的石化产品分别为工业级碳酸锂上涨22.37%、精对苯二甲酸上涨8.32%、对 二甲苯(CFR中国)上涨6.97%、涤纶FDY上涨5.04%、页岩油上涨4.98%；跌幅前五名的石化产品分别为 液氯下跌37.72%、液化天然气下跌6.69%、纯MDI下跌4.23%、硫黄下跌3.96%、维生素D3下跌3.85%。 中化新网讯上周(2025年12月29日至31日)，仅有3个交易日，期间石油与化工指数中化工指数全部下 跌，石油指数全部上涨。 化工板块方面，化工原料指数累计下跌0.65%、化工机械指数累计下跌2.97%、化学制药指数累计下跌 2.19%、农药化肥指数累计下跌0.73%；石油板块方面，石油加工指数累计上涨6.19%、石油开采指数累 计上涨4.93%、石油贸易指数累计上涨2.66%。 从资本市 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The domestic monoammonium phosphate market is transitioning from a cost-driven price increase to a high-level consolidation under strong policy guidance, influenced by policy regulation, cost support, and demand dynamics [1][5] - Policy measures include a combination of export control, supply stabilization, and raw material adjustment, aimed at stabilizing market fluctuations and preventing drastic price changes [1][5] - The export suspension policy effectively locks domestic resources, alleviating supply pressure before the spring plowing season, while mandatory operational rates ensure stable market circulation [1][5] Group 2: Cost Factors - There is still support from the cost side, but different raw material trends have shown divergence, with overall stability and slight easing [2][6] - Phosphate rock companies have ample orders, but regional supply constraints are prominent, particularly in Guizhou and Hubei, leading to tight overall supply and stable prices [7] - Sulfur prices remain high, with limited import volumes expected in January 2026, while domestic prices may see slight adjustments due to policy guidance [7] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The demand side exhibits a "short-term weakness + medium-term support" characteristic, with the focus of negotiations on procurement timing and price expectations [2][7] - As of December 19, the compound fertilizer industry's capacity utilization has dropped to 37.75%, the lowest in five years, with many companies having sufficient inventory for short-term production needs [8] - The observed demand weakness is not indicative of a complete demand shrinkage but rather a postponement based on policy and price expectations, suggesting potential recovery as the spring planting season approaches [8] Group 4: Market Outlook - In the short term, the monoammonium phosphate market is expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation pattern, with policy price constraints and rigid cost support creating a balance [4][9] - Future market direction will depend on three core variables: raw material price trends, demand release timing, and the effectiveness of policy implementation [4][9] - Downstream compound fertilizer companies may continue to adopt a just-in-time purchasing model to avoid high inventory costs, while raw material price fluctuations could impact market sentiment [9]

Group 1: Industry Performance - The majority of indices in the petroleum and chemical sectors increased last week, with only the petroleum trade index declining [1] - The chemical raw materials index rose by 5.09%, the chemical machinery index by 5.46%, the chemical pharmaceuticals index by 0.14%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index by 3.86% [1] - In the petroleum sector, the petroleum processing index increased by 0.87%, and the petroleum extraction index by 1.96%, while the petroleum trade index fell by 1.60% [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - International crude oil prices showed a strong performance, with WTI settling at $56.74 per barrel, up 0.14% from December 19, and Brent at $60.64 per barrel, up 0.28% [1] - The top five petrochemical products with price increases included battery-grade lithium carbonate up 15.29%, purified terephthalic acid up 8.32%, paraxylene (CFR China) up 7.26%, polyester FDY up 5.04%, and shale oil up 4.98% [1] - The top five petrochemical products with price declines included liquid chlorine down 37.72%, liquefied natural gas down 6.69%, pure MDI down 4.23%, sulfur down 3.96%, and vitamin D3 down 3.85% [1] Group 3: Capital Market Performance - The top five listed chemical companies with the highest stock price increases were Shenjian Co. up 61.20%, Jiuding New Materials up 48.75%, Jinlitai up 33.12%, Zaiseng Technology up 28.39%, and Dongcai Technology up 28.34% [2] - The top five listed chemical companies with the largest stock price declines were Bohai Chemical down 28.32%, Suli Co. down 13.71%, Tiantie Co. down 13.06%, Bofei Electric down 11.76%, and Kesi Co. down 10.22% [2]

Core Insights - The recent surge in sulfuric acid prices, with a cumulative increase of 63.9%, is primarily driven by rising sulfur raw material prices and supply constraints [1][2] - As of late December, sulfur prices have begun to decline, leading to price reductions in sulfuric acid in key production areas [1][2] Group 1: Price Dynamics - Sulfur prices have significantly increased, reaching a peak of over 4200 yuan in mid-December, marking a 130% rise since the beginning of the year [2] - The domestic sulfuric acid market has seen a price increase due to the rising costs of sulfur and sulfur iron ore, which have provided strong cost support [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Domestic sulfuric acid production has been affected by maintenance shutdowns, with approximately 21.38 million tons of annual processing capacity undergoing repairs [2] - Export orders for sulfuric acid have been robust, with exports increasing by 90.69% year-on-year, while imports have decreased by 23.21% [2] Group 3: Industry Response and Policy Measures - In response to rising sulfur prices, a meeting was held to stabilize sulfuric acid prices and prioritize domestic supply, leading to a reduction in export volumes [4][5] - The industry is shifting towards a collaborative approach to ensure supply stability, with encouragement for long-term purchase agreements between sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizer producers [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the sulfuric acid market will experience a period of price stabilization and supply prioritization, with a potential return to more reasonable price levels [7] - Despite a slight decline in sulfur prices, the overall cost support from sulfur iron ore remains strong, limiting the downward price movement of sulfuric acid [7]

Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical raw materials index increased by 1.62%, while the chemical machinery index decreased by 0.96%, the chemical pharmaceuticals index fell by 1.69%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index rose by 4.21% [1] - The top five rising petrochemical products included folic acid up by 20%, battery-grade lithium carbonate up by 11.08%, nitric acid up by 10.43%, sulfur up by 9.95%, and petroleum coke up by 7.23% [1] - The top five declining petrochemical products were liquid chlorine down by 34%, butadiene down by 7.69%, 2,4-D down by 6.09%, trichloroethylene down by 6.00%, and SBS down by 5.90% [1] Group 2: Oil Sector Performance - The oil processing index rose by 1.39%, while the oil extraction index fell by 0.22%, and the oil trading index increased by 3.44% [1] - International crude oil prices continued to decline, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settling at $56.66 per barrel, down 1.36% from December 12, and Brent crude oil futures settling at $60.47 per barrel, down 1.06% from December 12 [1] Group 3: Capital Market Performance of Listed Chemical Companies - The top five rising listed chemical companies included Sulihua Co., Ltd. up by 30.69%, Xinri Hengli up by 27.48%, Reborn Technology up by 23.25%, Ruihua Tai up by 20.93%, and Shenjian Co., Ltd. up by 20.50% [2] - The top five declining listed chemical companies were Huarong Chemical down by 20.01%, Enjie Co., Ltd. down by 18.36%, Weike Technology down by 13.15%, Jinbantai down by 12.83%, and Xingye Co., Ltd. down by 12.63% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting held by the China Sulfuric Acid Industry Association and the China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association focuses on stabilizing supply and prices in the sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizer industries to ensure stable fertilizer supply and pricing before the spring farming season, thereby reinforcing the agricultural input security for national food safety [1][2]. Group 1: Current Market Situation - Global sulfur resource supply is tight, leading to a significant price increase, with imported sulfur prices rising over 230% this year, reaching over 4100 yuan/ton at one point [1]. - As of December 11, the average domestic sulfur price hit a yearly high, with solid sulfur averaging 3936.88 yuan/ton (up 169.59% year-on-year) and liquid sulfur at 3992.75 yuan/ton (up 161.61% year-on-year) [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Measures - Export control measures require sulfuric acid exporters to prioritize domestic market needs and reduce export volumes, with any necessary exports priced no lower than domestic prices [2]. - Price control measures set December 11 prices as a baseline, prohibiting smelting acid producers from raising prices arbitrarily to ensure market stability [2]. - Sulfur companies are encouraged to establish an independent pricing system based on the domestic market to avoid significant fluctuations tied to international market prices [2]. Group 3: Industry Responsibilities - The sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizer industries are urged to recognize the importance of food security and fertilizer supply, enhancing their sense of responsibility and prioritizing supply stabilization efforts [2]. - The China Sulfuric Acid Industry Association and the China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association are tasked with industry self-regulation, monitoring, and implementing supply stabilization measures, including promoting long-term purchase agreements between upstream and downstream companies [2]. Group 4: Technological Development - To alleviate sulfur resource supply pressure, the meeting discussed promoting phosphogypsum-based sulfuric acid production technology and coordinating supportive policies [3]. - Approximately 90 million tons of phosphogypsum are produced annually in China, with 1 ton of phosphogypsum capable of producing 0.45 tons of sulfuric acid, which could significantly supplement domestic sulfur supply if scaled effectively [3]. - Leading companies like Guizhou Phosphate Group and Yunnan Yuntianhua Co., Ltd. are advancing the application of phosphogypsum-based sulfuric acid technology, with some projects already operating stably for years [3].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasizes that ensuring the supply and price stability of fertilizers is a top priority, with industry enterprises required to enhance their political awareness and fulfill their responsibilities to safeguard national food security before the spring plowing season [2][3]. Group 1: Meeting Context - The meeting was held under the guidance of the National Development and Reform Commission, organized by the China Sulfuric Acid Industry Association and the China Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Industry Association [1][2]. - Rising prices of sulfur and sulfuric acid have led to an increase in phosphate fertilizer prices, posing a potential threat to national food security [1][2]. Group 2: Key Requirements - The first requirement is to control sulfuric acid exports to prioritize domestic supply, with exporters urged to reduce export volumes and ensure that export prices do not fall below domestic prices [1][2]. - The second requirement is to prevent price increases of sulfuric acid, with all smelting acid production enterprises prohibited from raising prices arbitrarily based on the reference price from December 11 [1][2]. - The third requirement mandates that upstream and downstream enterprises strictly adhere to long-term supply agreements and not act untrustworthily for profit [1][2]. Group 3: Role of Associations - The two associations will act as a bridge to facilitate cooperation, including accurately identifying enterprise needs and forming targeted cooperation suggestions [3]. - They will establish a long-term platform for communication and project cooperation [3]. - The associations will actively communicate industry demands to regulatory authorities to seek policy support and promote deeper cooperation [3].

Core Viewpoint - The China Sulfuric Acid Industry Association has issued an initiative to ensure the supply of raw materials for domestic fertilizers amid rising global sulfur resource prices, which have significantly increased production costs and impacted agricultural stability [1][2]. Group 1: Initiative Details - The initiative calls for sulfur, sulfuric acid, and sulfur iron ore producers to enhance their responsibility and maintain production levels until the end of the spring farming season, with maintenance schedules adjusted accordingly [1]. - Sulfur trading companies are urged to adhere to fair business practices and avoid hoarding or price manipulation to maintain market order [1]. - Sulfuric acid exporters are required to prioritize domestic fertilizer companies' needs and control export volumes, ensuring that export prices do not fall below domestic prices [1]. - The industry is encouraged to adopt a bottom-line mindset to ensure the supply of sulfur resources to fertilizer companies, focusing on agricultural production and market stability [1]. Group 2: Industry Response - The deputy secretary-general of the China Sulfuric Acid Industry Association indicated that most companies are cooperating well, with only a few facing operational issues that necessitate maintenance [2]. - Exporting companies have proactively reduced export volumes to minimize disruptions before the spring farming season [2].

Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical raw materials index decreased by 1.75%, while the chemical machinery index increased by 0.47%. The pharmaceutical index fell by 0.24%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index dropped by 1.48% [1] - In the petroleum sector, the petroleum processing index declined by 2.65%, the petroleum extraction index fell by 2.49%, and the petroleum trading index decreased by 7.22% [1] Group 2: Oil Price Trends - International crude oil prices decreased, with the NYMEX West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settling at $57.44 per barrel, down 4.39% from December 5. The ICE Brent crude oil futures settled at $61.12 per barrel, down 4.13% from December 5 [1] Group 3: Petrochemical Product Price Changes - The top five petrochemical products with price increases were lithium battery electrolyte (up 5.50%), vitamin VA (up 5.21%), bisphenol A (up 4.42%), sulfuric acid (up 4.36%), and sulfur (up 4.21%) [1] - The top five petrochemical products with price decreases were liquid chlorine (down 32.88%), 2% biotin (down 5.45%), vitamin D3 (down 5.11%), aniline (down 4.36%), and DEG (down 4.15%) [1] Group 4: Capital Market Performance of Chemical Companies - The top five performing listed chemical companies were Zai Sheng Technology (up 61.19%), Guoci Materials (up 23.46%), Lanxiao Technology (up 18.13%), Qiaoyuan Co. (up 15.18%), and Yongguan New Materials (up 14.34%) [2] - The top five underperforming listed chemical companies were Fanli Technology (down 22.56%), Qingshuiyuan (down 18.42%), Hengtong Co. (down 16.12%), Letong Co. (down 15.53%), and Asia Pacific Industry (down 14.06%) [2]

Core Insights - The meeting aimed to address the recent fluctuations in phosphate fertilizer prices and ensure sufficient supply and stable prices during the spring farming season [2][3] Group 1: Market Conditions - Recent price volatility in the phosphate fertilizer market has raised industry concerns, driven by rising costs of key raw materials like sulfur and sulfuric acid, along with changes in market expectations and supply adjustments [2] - Major phosphate fertilizer producers reported stable production levels, with companies like Yunnan Yuntianhua Co., Guizhou Phosphate Group, and Hubei Yihua Group indicating sufficient supply for spring sales [2] - Despite stable production, companies face significant pressure from rising raw material costs, impacting their operational performance [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Strategies - The National Development and Reform Commission indicated that while some regions have seen price increases, overall domestic supply remains stable, providing a solid foundation for winter storage and spring farming [3] - Recommendations to stabilize market expectations include delaying phosphate fertilizer exports until August 2026 to prioritize domestic supply and controlling raw material cost increases through long-term supply agreements [3] - Additional strategies discussed include establishing a long-term trading mechanism, regulating distribution channels, and combating speculative trading practices to maintain reasonable profit margins during critical periods [3]